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Chris Paddack UCL


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1 hour ago, Tim said:

Really curious to hear your thoughts on the Maeda trade. 

Pretty sure we were a contender at that time and also gave up a top 75 prospect for a pitcher with an injured elbow.

You win some and lose some

Graterol wasn't our closer and we didn't make the trade on Opening Day with no back-up plan to replace him. As Chief said, this trade is not one a team serious about contending would have made when we did.

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35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I know we're not arguing relief pitcher WAR, right? I'm not suggesting Pagan is the 9th inning answer or even a main cog in the pen for the rest of the season. Simply pointing out that the arguments of the trade being ridiculous at the time and this injury confirming it aren't based on anything other than preference for Rogers. It's ok if some people just admit that the FO is as terrible as they claim and they actually "won" that trade to this point and it will be very, very hard for Rogers to do anything this season to make the trade itself a bad one. And if Pagan continues to work some sort of weird magic trick most times he's out there and Paddack doesn't need TJ the trade will be a steal for 2022 as well.

It's not perfect, particularly for relievers, but I'll take a metric using controllable variables over one that's almost entirely opportunity based. 

It goes deeper than just the name on the jersey. MN gambled. They moved a high level arm, from a bullpen that needed help, for a reclamation project of sorts with plenty of service time to reap the rewards from said turnaround. Now, a big chunk of that time seems to be gone, and the Twins are paying Rogers to be elite elsewhere. Some posters didn't like the gamble, it's ok. 

Sure, if Paddack avoids TJ, comes back, and pitches well then it probably ends up as a W for the Twins. Calling it that to this point though, eh, pass.  

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4 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

One year of an All-Star closer and $6 million is still worth more than 1.5 seasons of unknown starting pitching. I would count on him zero for next year. Anything he gives us is a bonus. Maybe he will be good in 2024.

Sure, all starters are injury risks. His risk was known to be much higher. We gambled and lost badly.

Despite this, starting pitching takes a back seat to desperately needing a closer (which is why this was a bad trade).

All pitchers, period, are injury risks.

This trade was completely predicated on the Twins belief that a controllable, starting pitcher with upside, was more valuable than needing a All Star closer for 6 million.

on the last statement, I don't think there's ever a scenario or situation where you can say starting pitching takes a back seat to needing a closer.

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21 minutes ago, Tim said:

Ill leave this here as well, Rogers is absolutely bound to come down to earth.

Although I'm not sure the individuals arguing the Twins lost this trade will understand the graphic 

Screenshot 2022-05-10 145530.jpg

By all means, enlighten the community, even those of us who aren't entrenched on one side.

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6 minutes ago, Tim said:

All pitchers, period, are injury risks.

This trade was completely predicated on the Twins belief that a controllable, starting pitcher with upside, was more valuable than needing a All Star closer for 6 million.

on the last statement, I don't think there's ever a scenario or situation where you can say starting pitching takes a back seat to needing a closer.

At this moment, a closer takes precedent, IMO. We still have 6 starters (though Bundy may have to go soon) and turning to Smelzter or later Belezovich for a handful of starts to get into July if necessary is not the end of the world, IMO. I don't think we can wait that long on a closer. Getting anyone to trade now will require the Twins to over-pay.

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27 minutes ago, Tim said:

Ill leave this here as well, Rogers is absolutely bound to come down to earth.

Although I'm not sure the individuals arguing the Twins lost this trade will understand the graphic 

Screenshot 2022-05-10 145530.jpg

His ERA is 0.00. Do we need the chart to know that he's guaranteed to regress?

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9 minutes ago, Tim said:

All pitchers, period, are injury risks.

This trade was completely predicated on the Twins belief that a controllable, starting pitcher with upside, was more valuable than needing a All Star closer for 6 million.

on the last statement, I don't think there's ever a scenario or situation where you can say starting pitching takes a back seat to needing a closer.

I'll be happy to say 60 good high impact innings is more valuable to a contender than 160 innings of mediocre starting pitching. The second has little impact on winning. The first absolutely does.

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So Twins aren't a defined one guy closer organization currently, so while Rogers was sting to leave via trade as he wanted to be THE closer, Twins didn't see it that way.  Padres have had 16 save opportunities and have 11 saves by Rogers.  Twins have had 10 total opportunities with 7 successful saves combined from the bullpen.  While it sucks that Paddock is injured, the BP piece is still the same.  Looking at the bright side, Twins are won 11 games without needing a save.  Padres only 7 wins not needing THE Closer to step on the field. So Twins have saved some money at the moment per appearance so to speak.  

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Just now, darwin22 said:
59 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Pagan has allowed a total of 5 hits, that is hardly a time bomb.

Though that may be the case, you cannot ignore his 8 walks over his last 5 appearances (4.67 IP), along with the fact that he's needed `140 pitches to record 14 outs.  Tick...tick....

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14 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Graterol wasn't our closer and we didn't make the trade on Opening Day with no back-up plan to replace him. As Chief said, this trade is not one a team serious about contending would have made when we did.

You and Chief can beat the "serious contender" drum all year.  They are not a serious contender no matter how often you insist they should act like one.  They are a good team that could make the playoffs but they are not in the upper tier of playoff teams so expecting they act like a true contender will likely yield disappointment.  I expect them to act like a contender if they continue to solidify their rotation.  They also need some position players to step up as well.  They still have question marks with Jeffers / Kirilloff / Miranda / Lewis / Larnach and Celestino.  When enough of this comes together to be a serious contender, that would be the time to act like a true contender.  Until that happens, trading short term assets for long-term assets is how winning organizations manage their personnel.

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You've got to wonder about what the Twins knew about Paddack's elbow before the trade, because if they knew it was a ticking time bomb, then that's simply a bad trade they made. Especially since even us in the peanut gallery knew that it could be a problem...

Say what you will about the Dyson trade, but there were no rumblings about him having any shoulder problems before the trade... and we also didn't trade one of the best relievers in baseball for him.

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47 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'll be happy to say 60 good high impact innings is more valuable to a contender than 160 innings of mediocre starting pitching. The second has little impact on winning. The first absolutely does.

Take a look how teams allocate $ in free agency between "average starting pitching" and "high end relievers".

How teams value pitching prospects, who are more likely to end up relievers rather starters in trades.

That will tell you how front offices, people much smarter than you and i, value what impacts winning games and where millions of dollars go.

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7 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Say what you will about the Dyson trade, but there were no rumblings about him having any shoulder problems before the trade... and we also didn't trade one of the best relievers in baseball for him.

Not to go down the rabbit hole but Dyson also turned out to be a huge POS as a person, too. Yeah, one could argue "off the field is off the field" but breaking the jaw of a teammate in a bar fight and alleged sexual assault are different than just being a do****. I'm guessing there is very little time spent vetting that sort-of thing on top of just passing a physical when it comes to trades

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48 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

One year of an All-Star closer and $6 million is still worth more than 1.5 seasons of unknown starting pitching. I would count on him zero for next year. Anything he gives us is a bonus. Maybe he will be good in 2024.

Sure, all starters are injury risks. His risk was known to be much higher. We gambled and lost badly.

Despite this, starting pitching takes a back seat to desperately needing a closer (which is why this was a bad trade).

Why do you count on him zero for next year? He'll be back on a mound by spring training (assuming this injury leads to TJ and he goes with the new version that everyone seems to be using). He should be able to pitch almost the entire season next year so you must be assuming he'll take at least the entire season to get his stuff or control back. Seems like a real bold statement.

You do realize a closer isn't needed if the starter doesn't do their job first, right? Starting pitching never, ever, ever, ever takes the back seat to relievers. You could be the closer for the Twins this year and it wouldn't cost them anything in terms of the ability to contend if the rotation was full of 5 other TD posters. You can't close a game for a save if the starter put you in a 5 run hole.

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50 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Graterol wasn't our closer and we didn't make the trade on Opening Day with no back-up plan to replace him. As Chief said, this trade is not one a team serious about contending would have made when we did.

We should let the team know they aren't serious about contending so their bullpen quits producing (#2 in baseball in Win Probability Added, so they've been really, really good at getting hitters out in clutch situations) and they start losing and quit being in first. They seem confused as all those "no back-up plan" guys have replaced Rogers and performed well. I'll let them know they're all supposed to suck cuz the Twins traded Taylor Rogers on opening day.

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42 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'll be happy to say 60 good high impact innings is more valuable to a contender than 160 innings of mediocre starting pitching. The second has little impact on winning. The first absolutely does.

How are they supposed to get to the opportunity for 60 good high impact innings without starting pitching? Twins bullpen is currently #2 in all of baseball in Win Probability Added. So to this point the doomed pen without Rogers has provided 118.2 innings of good high impact innings. I suppose you could argue they'd be #1 in baseball if they still had Rogers, but I'm a simple guy who thinks #2 is probably good enough to win a division and maybe even a playoff game or 2.

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1 minute ago, shortround81 said:

--mutters-- Daniel Craig . . . a blonde James Bond . . . not on my watch

Agree. Best Bond; Sean Connery. Tid bit: Ian Fleming, creator of James Bond, recommended David Niven for the Bond role, Niven having been an actual behind-the-lines British spy in WW II. Fleming had served in naval intelligence and new Niven. Sometimes it's not who you know...

Goes for baseball players, too.

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2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Rogers was way more important to this team's 2022 chances than Paddack and Pagan.

 

Even most of those defending the trade at the time were pointing to the "years of control" rather than actual value. Pagan is a throw in, as is the minor leaguer.

This was all argued at length at the time. For now, I hope surgery proves unnecessary, Paddack recovers quickly, and he pitches well. That'll make the trade less damaging to the 22 Twins.

The people who are saying that it was a poor/bad/awful trade seem to have forgotten that in 2021 Rogers wasn't Mariano Rivera.  He was decent but he was still 3rd in saves with less than half the saves that Alex Colome collected.  It appears they are using 2022 results as an argument for not making the trade - which occurred before the season started.  Hindsight is...well you know the rest.

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1 minute ago, terrydactyls said:

The people who are saying that it was a poor/bad/awful trade seem to have forgotten that in 2021 Rogers wasn't Mariano Rivera.  He was decent but he was still 3rd in saves with less than half the saves that Alex Colome collected.  It appears they are using 2022 results as an argument for not making the trade - which occurred before the season started.  Hindsight is...well you know the rest.

I don't know about "people," but speaking for myself, I didn't just now form my opinion of the trade. 

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