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Assessing the Twins Trade for Chris Paddack


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For those of you that are saying the Twins downgraded in 2022:

Chris Paddack WAR 2019-2021: 4.5 WAR (2.4, 0.3, 1.8)

Taylor Rogers WAR 2019-2021: 4.2 WAR (2.1, 0.5, 1.6)

As good as Rogers is, the reality is that even elite RPs are not as valuable as decent SPs.

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4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

They were also two of the team's oldest healthy players, with Thielbar the only one older. Would seem to me the most logical correlation is that the Twins are  in position to move the older players.

I don't think they deal with Scott Boras on Buxton AND Correa deals if they're union bustin'.

Joe Smith was born before the Minnesota Twins won a World Series. 
 

As for the Union stuff, i dunno. It would appear to be a occupational hazard to be a union rep. Winning helps clubhouse chemistry. 

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21 minutes ago, Rik19753 said:

For those of you that are saying the Twins downgraded in 2022:

Chris Paddack WAR 2019-2021: 4.5 WAR (2.4, 0.3, 1.8)

Taylor Rogers WAR 2019-2021: 4.2 WAR (2.1, 0.5, 1.6)

As good as Rogers is, the reality is that even elite RPs are not as valuable as decent SPs.

WPA

Rogers 3.14

Paddack -0.49

WAR is a volume stat and does not account for leverage. The majority of Rogers’ contribution has been high leverage. Elite relievers make a difference in the win column. Starters can also or they can eat innings and add to their WAR.

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Quality Move.. both baseball wise and business wise. Paddack will be in the rotation.. period. 

Who gets bumped...? has to be Bundy or Archer... both have had success in the past but are coming off tough or injury years. Sorry Ted.. Ober leaving the rotation makes ZERO sense. He is one of our core pitchers for years to come.. Bundy and Archer are lottery ticket rehab guys. 

Bullpen will be fine... high end arms and I think Duran slots right into the closer spot and stays there for the next 5 years... and dominant. 

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This is not an argument for/against "win now" nor for/against the utility of an "ace". But I enjoy watching the Twins stockpile starting pitching.

2023 potential starting pitching depth/options

MLB Roster: Maeda, Paddack, Bundy, Archer, Ober, Ryan, Gray

MLB Ready (1 Full Yr in AAA): Winder, Henriquez, Strotman, Balazovic, Sands

MLB Breakout (.5 Yr AA / .5 Yr AAA): SWR, Canterino, Varland,

*Assuming Duran permanent move to bullpen & Enlow not ready for consideration until 2024

That's...a lot. And that's before spending any money on free agency (of which they have plenty). This gives them considerable leverage in the market to a) not make a desperation move and spend money unwisely, b) trade from strength where mid rotation controllable & affordable arms can yield outsized return to fill in a missing puzzle piece, c) protect against major injury impact, d) protect against overworking arms in-season, e) shift focus to stockpiling the lower minors upside pitching depth which can be acquired more quietly/cheaply.

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Ok so Fangraphs updated their depth charts.  I noted that they projected the Twins starters for 9.7 WAR prior to the trade and 3.4 WAR for the bullpen. Rogers accounted for 1.9 of that bulletin number.

After the trade they project the starters for 10.6 WAR and the bullpen for 1.8 WAR. So they lose 0.7 wins on paper in the deal.  This is about what I expected, actually slightly better than I was thinking.

Archer picked up 10 relief innings in their projection, I think he just lost innings overall, though he's still projected for 80 some innings as a starter.  Probably guys like Winder and Jax lost some projected starting innings and picked up a couple bullpen innings as well. Most of Rogers' innings went to Pagan.  The team innings totals actually don't even match the sum of the projected player's innings so it's not a perfect projection but I think it does a good enough job of setting baseline expectations.

I've come around a bit on what they might hope to do with Paddack to exceed his current projection, but I don't think you can give any extra credit for what might happen.

As it is, the move probably will cost them a bit this year, maybe just a game overall, but still something when they might be in a very tight race for the final playoff spot.

Maybe there is decent value from this trade next year, but at the moment I just can't really get behind a trade that probably makes them worse this year.

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Hey..... they got us Colome, Happ, Shoemaker, Robles, Rodney, Perez, De Jong, Belisle, Reed...... and got rid of Berrios, Taylor, and Pressly. They liked all the gets when they got them, just like now, and they got the gets for CHEAP(except the trades to get rid of the best we had were pretty costly)! Mostly coming off bad years (or two), but they were (some of them) good just before, and they were identified by the pitching experts to be prime for resurgence. 

With that past track record, no reason to not anticipate that the odds are now in our favor for success and the new gets will be ready to thrive, right? Batter up!

None of the pitchers on our staff have gone many innings. If this team does get hot, and the pitchers succeed and don't get hurt, come August, they will all be at their inning limits for the season, supposedly. And the guys in the minors will to be, if they are pitching in AAA or AA in rotation. Gray has gone over 200 innings twice, but that was in 2014 and 2015, and last year he put in only 135.........

 

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He's hurt.  He's hurt.  He's hurt.

And the Twins deal with his type of injury waiting forever to eventually get TJS.  For this reason along, it's not a good trade.

They best test him at AAA, get an extra year of service from him, and maybe have him healthy by 2025.  Thumbs up, Twins.

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4 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Maybe there is decent value from this trade next year, but at the moment I just can't really get behind a trade that probably makes them worse this year.

The constant idea of building for next year doesn't interest me in this year unless the options were worse. I agree with the post above. I don't see this helping the team this year.

An ironic factor is that the Twins and their fans constantly adhere to a small to mid market apology. Twins Daily set the Twins budget at what most saw as near the upper limit - $130 million. The budget could have been anywhere from $90-150 million easily, based on the team's goals. Now, we see the Twins add two players for around $2.5 million each and pay Rogers' salary and they are over $130 million. San Diego picks up a closer for the league minimum and subtracts a player they may have cut and a guy who may have been reassigned to AAA. All this and the Twins may like this trade for next year. 

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30 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

He's hurt.  He's hurt.  He's hurt.

And the Twins deal with his type of injury waiting forever to eventually get TJS.  For this reason along, it's not a good trade.

They best test him at AAA, get an extra year of service from him, and maybe have him healthy by 2025.  Thumbs up, Twins.

Maeda waited for his time on the Twins for his to go. We got lucky with Ervin Santana, though, at least with his partially torn UCL.

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Paddock is a talent that is worth the risks.  This trade tells me the FO has a lot of faith in Duran.  He could have a K-Rod type rookie impact.  I have wanted our young pitchers to get a chance.  It looks like that chance will be in the bullpen, which could work out well.  Alcala, Winder and Pagan, along with Duran, that is a lot of high velocity.  I think Archer should be bumped from the rotation.  Archer really intrigues me as a multi inning reliever.  He was throwing 94-95 this spring.  I would hope the bullpen would help save his arm.

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I think this trade shows a lot about the Front Office's philosophy. After the debacles of Addison Reed and Alex Colume, they aren't going to pay market price for relief pitchers. We've also seen a reluctance for long-term deals (most likely why Berrios was traded). After losing the entire starting rotation from Opening Day of 2021 (trades, injury, free agency, ineffectiveness), they have replenished mostly by trading (Gray, Ryan, Paddack) and low-cost bounceback contracts. The bullpen is a work in progress, especially since the pitching staff will need to be trimmed by three from their current total of 16 pitchers. There seems to be a bit of conceit in this approach, that the Twins can make a competitive bullpen and pitching staff out of low-cost pieces. Maybe the front office is right, but color me skeptical.

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The more I think about this deal, the more I'm ok with it. I just hope Paddack's elbow doesn't come back to bite them on the backside. Hopefully, he doesn't end up with a TJ.  Pagan isn't anything special, but then neither was Rooker. 

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Not sure about the trade but it could work out real well for us.  Over does not belong in the pen.  He needs to start if for no other reason he has earned it.  Going to miss Rogers.  I'm not sure we have anyone in the pen that can replace him.  A lot of changes have been made.  I'm still confused by what the FO is trying to do.  We still have a couple of pitchers on the starting staff that are reclamation projects that no other team wanted.  I'm not sure how that makes us a contender.  Offense looks great and is probably going to have to carry the team.  Pitching staff is still questionable.  I hope it all works out.

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My guess is the Twins go with a 6 man rotation early to save arms and assess.  Bundy will have a very short lease.  this also protects them against an Archer flameout.  Just hope that Alcala and  Duran step up.  This is what this move is about.

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1 hour ago, CRF said:

The more I think about this deal, the more I'm ok with it. I just hope Paddack's elbow doesn't come back to bite them on the backside. Hopefully, he doesn't end up with a TJ.  Pagan isn't anything special, but then neither was Rooker. 

Paddack has already had TJ. 

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50 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Not sure about the trade but it could work out real well for us.  Over does not belong in the pen.  He needs to start if for no other reason he has earned it.  Going to miss Rogers.  I'm not sure we have anyone in the pen that can replace him.  A lot of changes have been made.  I'm still confused by what the FO is trying to do.  We still have a couple of pitchers on the starting staff that are reclamation projects that no other team wanted.  I'm not sure how that makes us a contender.  Offense looks great and is probably going to have to carry the team.  Pitching staff is still questionable.  I hope it all works out.

The FO has stated they're not done making moves. I believe that. 

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2 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Paddack has already had TJ. 

I stand corrected...you're right. He did have TJ surgery back in 2016. I'm hoping he doesn't end up needing another one. When I saw that he had the UCL sprain last season, a possible TJ was the first thing I thought of. I hope he's fully recovered from the sprain now. I guess we'll find out soon enough. 

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this trade sounds like another flier of mediocrity. Say what you will, but our bullpen has been terrible for years. Outside the fluke of 2019 when we had a bunch of slow tossing junkballers who may have put up decent #'s, but couldn't close out a game when we really needed to.

Rogers is a great 8th inning set up guy, bit was not a closer. We signed a 97 mph guy last year and he couldnt get anybody out. What makes the FO think Pagan can? We needed to ADD a closer, not a 6th middle of the road starter.

Duran is really going to have to step up and fill the closer role or this team is sunk before the season even begins.

Nothing is ever certain, but the fact that this pitching staff is 80% maybes is certain.

I'd much rather have seen us add to the pen, not subtract from our weakest position.

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13 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

this trade sounds like another flier of mediocrity. Say what you will, but our bullpen has been terrible for years. Outside the fluke of 2019 when we had a bunch of slow tossing junkballers who may have put up decent #'s, but couldn't close out a game when we really needed to.

Rogers is a great 8th inning set up guy, bit was not a closer. We signed a 97 mph guy last year and he couldnt get anybody out. What makes the FO think Pagan can? We needed to ADD a closer, not a 6th middle of the road starter.

Duran is really going to have to step up and fill the closer role or this team is sunk before the season even begins.

Nothing is ever certain, but the fact that this pitching staff is 80% maybes is certain.

I'd much rather have seen us add to the pen, not subtract from our weakest position.

The bullpen was above average last year after getting rid of he who shall not be named.... Maybe even top ten. And that's with Rogers missing the last two months. 

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23 hours ago, jimmyc said:

Paddack is not going to the pen.

I agree.  Neither is Ober.  I think the Twins will now start with a 6 man rotation to start the season & tighten it to 5 as circumstances warrant.  Could be due either to injury or poor performance among the current 6 options. 

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31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The bullpen was above average last year after getting rid of he who shall not be named.... Maybe even top ten. And that's with Rogers missing the last two months. 

The bullpen was 19th in preventing runs last year in the 2nd half.

That's not above average. They don't line up teams after the season based on fWAR.

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14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The bullpen was 19th in preventing runs last year in the 2nd half.

That's not above average. They don't line up teams after the season based on fWAR.

I posted plenty of stats yesterday. Top ten in win probability added, for example. None of them were about war, btw. I even quoted you so you'd see them. We've made our points, we don't agree. I'm ok with that. 

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I guess in all this discussion I wonder why looking at a second half season sample is meaningful for relievers. Reliever sample is small in a full season. If Duffey or Theilbar happen to have better numbers in the second half than the first does that have any meaning for this year? I can’t imagine it does. If Alcala HR rates drops significantly in the second half sample after an insanely high rate the first half is that meaningful. Isn’t it likely that the true talent is somewhere in the middle?

It seems we should no more be encouraged by a second half sample than worried about the first half. Projections look beyond those splits to multiple years. No one in the Twins bullpen is projected for an ERA under 4. That concerns me.

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