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Twins/Padres Finalize Deal: Rogers, Rooker to San Diego for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan


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21 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

My point was not specific to Josh Winder necessarily, just that Manaea is a league average pitcher in terms of ERA. A league average pitcher is not super difficult to replace. Ryan was better than that last year (in a small sample size, of course). 

1. It's actually pretty difficult to find pitchers capable of giving you 180 innings of league average pitching. There is almost zero chance of Winder, or any Twins prospect, giving you that in 2022. 

2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020.

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3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Giving Ryan the opening day gig and rolling with Ober, Duran, Winder and now trading for Paddack says to me they willingly tied their horse to the youth movement. Two weeks ago I would have never thought Winder and Duran would have made the club and I still had a sneaking suspicion they'd find a way to keep Ryan off the initial MLB roster by getting even more gag-worthy vets. I'm not sure when this decision materialized, it felt like it was in the last week or two, but it seems like they're committed to it now and there's no going back.

I can see that

However, they have to know that Ober, Ryan, Duran, Winder, Balazovic and, Sands is how they get off the Happ/Shoemaker merry go round.

If they would have went into this year like they did last year because they were afraid of the youth... Personally, I would have lost my mind.

They are on the 40 man now... they are here... they are taking up valuable space, there is more to come next year. 

This year, they have to move forward with these young arms and start graduating them but at the same time... Due to covid and injuries, they don't have the innings built up yet so they got to augment, hedge bets, build an army. control usage.  

I think the pitching has more of a plan to it than the signing of Correa but I think youth was always part of that plan.   

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9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

1. It's actually pretty difficult to find pitchers capable of giving you 180 innings of league average pitching. There is almost zero chance of Winder, or any Twins prospect, giving you that in 2022. 

So... you're saying there's a chance???

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7 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

They may as well start looking for teams interested in Correa now. They can’t win with this pen. Why would they want two years of control of Pagan?

If he plays well CERTAINLY!  Unless the pitching prospects make huge strides this season he's the perfect trade chip to load up on.  Paddack does not get me enthusiastic.  He fills a hole, but not much more than that. 

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55 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think wanting the young guys playing and punting the season are the same thing. And I do want to see the young guys.

But why do you think those who don't like this trade were ever OK with the team punting? I think you're thinking of different posters.

Well there are more than a handful who stated they do not like this trade and had mentioned punting on the season in previous articles.  Everyone is entitled to there own opinion of course.  I also want the young guys to play...actually our team has become much younger threw these trades.  Winder and Duran both made the roster as did Ober and Ryan.  Kiriloff and Celestino and Gordon....all young guys. Other than Miranda what other younger players do you want on the roster?  Even Paddack is young.  So I pose this question to you, who else do you want on the roster?

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22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

1. It's actually pretty difficult to find pitchers capable of giving you 180 innings of league average pitching. There is almost zero chance of Winder, or any Twins prospect, giving you that in 2022. 

2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020.

1. So difficult that Manaea has never actually done it. Yes, he hit 179 last year, but let's not pretend he's some sort of workhorse.

2. It's not a stretch at all. He's gone slightly above average (106 ERA+) to slightly below average (95 ERA+) to slightly more than slightly above average 116 to injured to slightly below 93 to slightly above 104.

He's got a career 107 ERA+. He's almost the exact definition of league average.

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3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

But it could also be that as an organization, they are really, really terrible at getting these guys across the finish line and these guys would be better off someplace else.

The Twins would certainly know a thing or two about that.

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1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

1. So difficult that Manaea has never actually done it. Yes, he hit 179 last year, but let's not pretend he's some sort of workhorse.

2. It's not a stretch at all. He's gone slightly above average (106 ERA+) to slightly below average (95 ERA+) to slightly more than slightly above average 116 to injured to slightly below 93 to slightly above 104.

He's got a career 107 ERA+. He's almost the exact definition of league average.

When it comes to pitching. League Average is better than average. 😀

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2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

That would be ideal. It also makes me wonder why they're investing roughly $10M into two guys they can't wait to shove aside, especially if this season is about getting the "kids," innings. 

10million is a small insurance policy/buffer. Prospects are a significant investment and failing them in their development by promoting them too early would be way more costly. 

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1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think wanting the young guys playing and punting the season are the same thing. And I do want to see the young guys.

But why do you think those who don't like this trade were ever OK with the team punting? I think you're thinking of different posters.

If you read threw the comments there are plenty already called to trade Carlos and many others questioning why we signed him if we were going to trade Rogers.  

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15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

1. So difficult that Manaea has never actually done it. Yes, he hit 179 last year, but let's not pretend he's some sort of workhorse.

2. It's not a stretch at all. He's gone slightly above average (106 ERA+) to slightly below average (95 ERA+) to slightly more than slightly above average 116 to injured to slightly below 93 to slightly above 104.

He's got a career 107 ERA+. He's almost the exact definition of league average.

I meant to type 160. Point remains.

 

Again, you're completely misrepresenting what Manaea has been. 2020 skews his numbers. 

 

107 is 7 percent above league average. That's not the definition of league average.

 

All of which misses the point,  which is that it most certainly IS difficult to accumulate such pitchers, and a Winder is most certainly NOT likely to provide anything similar in 2022.

 

People are stumbling over themselves to praise Paddock, for example, and he's not been a "league average" pitcher.

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11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I meant to type 160. Point remains.

 

Again, you're completely misrepresenting what Manaea has been. 2020 skews his numbers. 

 

107 is 7 percent above league average. That's not the definition of league average.

 

All of which misses the point,  which is that it most certainly IS difficult to accumulate such pitchers, and a Winder is most certainly NOT likely to provide anything similar in 2022.

 

People are stumbling over themselves to praise Paddock, for example, and he's not been a "league average" pitcher.

Agreed on none of the prospects getting to 160. That number makes more sense there.

I'm not misrepresenting his numbers at all. 2020 is not skewing his numbers as he only threw 54 innings in 2020. By that argument 2019 is skewing his numbers by having a 1.21 ERA in a small sample of 29.2 innings.

For all intents and purposes 107 is league average. Especially for a pitcher how has bounced back and forth between basically 95 and 105 on his ERA+s. 

And many people have argued on here that the Padres got Manaea for basically nothing so it most certainly is not most certainly difficult to accumulate such pitchers. I wouldn't be shocked if Winder threw 100 innings of league average pitching this season. Wouldn't be shocked at all.

Paddack has had a better season than Manaea ever has. And I also don't see anyone doing all that much praising of Paddack. In fact it's almost all very quiet hope that he can get back close to his peak. Which is higher than Manaea's. There's a difference between saying the trade was good value for the Twins and stumbling over ourselves to praise Paddack.

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1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020.

I disagree. Here are his 2021 percentile rankings:38C9CACB-2C42-4B63-8AB6-7895D6C7223E.jpeg.a9ef4229263f46aebfd58eb618e4ff4c.jpeg

He does excel at not walking hitters and he’s above average at striking them out, but he’s poor at limiting hard contact and his xwOBA and xERA are about league average.

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3 years of SP for 1 year of RP. 

Seems like a no brainer.

You can always rebuild a bullpen (see 99% of deadline trades). Most SP will cost a prospect SP or CF in return.

And Rooker finally has a spot.

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This is so sneaky clever. Trade away your bullpen leader, your union leader, AND pay his salary for the other team! AND do it the day before your season starts! So clever. These guys want to win. Don't you all see it?

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Paddack's low-grade UCL tear is concerning, otherwise the deal makes sense. I wouldn't rule out Paddack becoming a two pitch bullpen weapon once the Winder/Balazovic/Sands et al rotation entries start. I think the Twins must really like what they've seen in the spring from their young guns. 

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9 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Rogers, to me, should have been untouchable, at least until the deadline. The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year. Seems likely it will be so again. Why risk it?

 

Weirdly, the bullpen was quite good when Rogers was hurt, and a disaster when he was healthy.

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5 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Manaea is a league average pitcher, with one year of control for a relatively high salary. That's why the haul was low. Manaea doesn't give the Twins anything in 2022 they couldn't get from Josh Winder, except more depth. That's why the Twins didn't trade for Manaea. Paddack's ceiling is way higher (I mean, look at what he did in 2019, he was the Padres opening day starter in 2020). 

Good points. Thanks.

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7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sure, but San Diego has eyes on winning a World Series this year. If the Twins are in that position in 2023, than similar deals would make more sense for them.

What I was trying to say was that the Twinkies could have gotten Manaea for a similar minor league prospects which San Diego gave up, thus getting one more possible starter (who is a lefty) and still kept Taylor.

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1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

I expect something of value, given that the Twins are eating $6m in the deal too.

Why do teams a player to be named later? What is the purpose of the delay? Possibly the Twins will have a choice of 1 of 3 minor leaguers and the Twinkies can wait to see how those 3 do over the next few months before choosing? Or some other reasons?

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8 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

I believe that a player drafted the previous year (2021 in this case) cannot be traded until after the draft the following year. 

That's until after the World Series or 90 days, whichever is longer. The Padres did sign a bunch of international free agents in the past 90 days.

Padres sign several players on the international market (eastvillagetimes.com)

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4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

For all intents and purposes 107 is league average. Especially for a pitcher how has bounced back and forth between basically 95 and 105 on his ERA+s. 

It's almost 1 standard deviation above average for a starting pitcher. That's a solid #3 / borderline #2. Remember that ERA+ includes all the relief pitchers too.

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1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Why do teams a player to be named later? What is the purpose of the delay? Possibly the Twins will have a choice of 1 of 3 minor leaguers and the Twinkies can wait to see how those 3 do over the next few months before choosing? Or some other reasons?

It used to be a workaround because recently drafted players couldn't be traded.

Now, I'd guess to keep the Padres under the luxury tax in some way.

There's a bureaucratic reason for everything that makes no sense.

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Love this trade! Bit of a risk, but Paddock has the arm to be a solid #3-4 guy for 3 years. I will not miss Rogers blowing saves or Rooker striking out. Pagan needs to cut down on the HRs allowed and if he does, he is a strong addition to the pen. Good move by the braintrust 

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2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

What I was trying to say was that the Twinkies could have gotten Manaea for a similar minor league prospects which San Diego gave up, thus getting one more possible starter (who is a lefty) and still kept Taylor.

And lose both Manaea and Rogers at the end of the season.

This is a great trade long term for a slight risk to 2022.  No brainer.

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