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Twins Acquire RHP Sonny Gray from Reds for Chase Petty


17 minutes ago, Sielk said:

Also, to give up just one single prospect when the Twins have 7-8 other SP prospects that are roughly the same tier as Petty? That's dealing from a position of strength and I would do that anytime. 

And depending on what they prioritize in the team's direction, other pitching prospects might be more valuable to them than Petty. If the front office believes the team is entering a stronger period of contention in a year or two with the next group of talent coming up, they should prefer to deal Petty rather than more advanced pitchers from a similar tier.

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I guess I am in the minority as I don't see Gray as much of needle mover over Pineda or Cueto who could be had for money and no prospect loss.  If they were going to make a big move why not go for Montas instead of Gray?  I mean the Yankee's tried to unload Gray almost as soon as they got him a while back not seeing him as a playoff pitcher or really a pitcher who could survive the division.  This isn't even a Lance Lynn move like the White Sox made IMO.  So color me disappointed on this one.  Sure, yeah they found a competent starter but I don't think they needed to pay that price to get something similar on the market.

 

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24 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Twins FO can't win.  Yesterday, they traded the present for the future.  Bad.  Today, they traded the future for the present.  Bad.

Standing pat after -16 last year is literally a non-starter.  Let's have a chuckle, look in the mirror and move on.

What can I say, flailing about making moves which don't seem to form a cohesive plan doesn't get them a lot of credit?

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I dislike this move as much as I liked yesterday's. Sonny Gray, a likely 3 (or 2 if you squint really hard), is a guy a contender picks up to get them over the hump. I don't think this team is built to win this year and next year depends mostly on how the in-house going starters develop.

 

A young, potential high impact arm for one year of Gray in a non-competitive situation and another where they *might* contend does very little for me.

 

Now, if they go get an actual #1 and a few bullpen arms so they can actually content this year, then I can be convinced to not hate this move.

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1 minute ago, twinsfaninsaudi said:

I don’t like the move. Good for 2022 sure and might not be bad in the long run. But the problem is the Twins should be going into full on rebuild mode. This is the move of a FO that is insecure it won’t be around in two years or even one. Falvey and Levine don’t have the equity with the organization and fan base to go into a rebuild mode because their failings are the reason it’s needed. Thus a move like this done in desperation to “compete” this year. A competitive pitching staff is not going to be built here in 3 weeks, and the FO is making moves in hopes of saving their own jobs in the short term. These things never end well and are part of the cycles of organizations that spend full generations in the league’s doldrums 

Disagree. The lineup is good enough to compete right now, so with a competent pitching staff, they're in the mix, especially with expanded playoffs. This isn't pro basketball where being in the middle class means you're almost never really a competitor for the title; the differences between the teams in the playoffs get a lot smaller (Twins recent record not withstanding) so if you have a chance to compete, I think you should always go for it. tearing it down and hoping for a new wave of prospects is no guarantee of future success. Gray is a big step to putting them team into the mix for the playoffs in 2022 and they only gave up a guy who is several years away with a big risk factor. Plus, Gray has an option for next season too: he doesn't have to be a 1 year rental.

The level of overreaction to everything going wrong last season with Twins fans is getting ridiculous. This front office has made the playoffs 3 times in 5 years; why exactly is it that they're totally incompetent/disaster/garbage? Because they didn't come out firing early in free agency? They're still making moves, and if they can get Pineda back, I like this team's odds to compete. This isn't a desperation move at all. A desperation move would have been dropping two of our top pitching prospects for 1 year of Chris Baskitt.

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I like this kind of move a lot better than filling the rotation with 1-yr contract journeyman free agents. Along with the Kiner-Falefa acquisition, it says the Twins are focusing on assembling a roster that can compete in the AL Central for the next 2-3 years when players like Buxton and Polanco are in their prime.

I also think that successfully pulling off these two trades makes another move to fill the rotation more likely. I'm not crazy about the FA's left on the board (including Pineda due to his past durability issues) but at the right price I guess there may be better options than we have now. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one more trade, now that management has showed some willingness to move both veterans and prospects.

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The Twins needs for 2022 were clear:

SP - Gray big step in the right direction.

SS - IKF nice player who is a + defender.

RP / 1 More SP?

Yes, a few more moves would be nice and are quite possible. I don't get all the angst that the FO isn't revealing a direction Present v Future?

Both of these players can be good for 2022-2023 and the Twins add two young arms to their minor league stable.

I consider these sound moves.

 

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32 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This gives the Twins one quality MLB starter. Four to go.

I think we agree on wanting a quality rotation. 

But do you see many rotations with *five* quality starters? We could get bogged down in what quality means I suppose. My problem with the Twins at present is that we have a collection of good no. 4-5 starters. 

I'd love to see Pineda come back--with Gray, that might mean we have capable no. 2 and 3 starters. We still don't have a horse to front the rotation. 

I agree with those who point out how deep we are in quality position players. I've got concern about depth at catching, but otherwise, in the field, this team could be playoff caliber.  The *huge* problem remains the front of the rotation. 

We have to hope we are developing good starters for the future. But if we can add another *quality* arm, they could be fun this year.  And after the Happ/Shoemaker debacle of last year, wouldn't it be nice to see the Twins simply in contention again?

 

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41 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This makes the trade yesterday make more sense. Apparently they are trying to win? The Bundy signing makes less and less sense though. 

Bundy was just a flyer on guy in a value trough. He could bounce back to be useful or tradeable.  This trade is about being a functional team in a winnable division with increased playoff spots available.  They had to get someone decent to front a team that wants to forget 2021 even happened and try to roll straight through from 2020 to 2022. 

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5 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

I dislike this move as much as I liked yesterday's. Sonny Gray, a likely 3 (or 2 if you squint really hard), is a guy a contender picks up to get them over the hump. I don't think this team is built to win this year and next year depends mostly on how the in-house going starters develop.

 

A young, potential high impact arm for one year of Gray in a non-competitive situation and another where they *might* contend does very little for me.

 

Now, if they go get an actual #1 and a few bullpen arms so they can actually content this year, then I can be convinced to not hate this move.

They have Gray under contract for 2022 and a team option at $12M for 2023. It's not one year of Gray, It's 1 + 1 if they want to keep him (and at $12M it's hard to see them declining the option unless he totally goes to crap)

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3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think they sold high on Petty. Imagine if they had traded Kohl Stewart the year after the draft.

And if he turns into the next Max Sherzer or even the next Ynoa and Gray craters the next two years and or the Twins still don't make the playoffs then the story ends up different.  I think Gray is a fine pitcher I would just have preferred the Twins to buy a guy rather than trade a potential asset.  

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2 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

Sonny Gray, a likely 3 (or 2 if you squint really hard),

Perhaps, but he just became the staff ace in Minnesota. Easily. One thing to consider is how much a veteran like Gray helps a pitcher like Ober or Ryan or any other inexperienced guy. It's huge. Now, one more addition. Mahle, Castillo, Montas, Manaea, Lopez, or any one guy with experience and talent. A pitcher like Cueto or Happ is a last resort. Gray suddenly becomes the first Twins pitcher generally acknowledged to be at least a #3 pitcher. Good move.

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7 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

And depending on what they prioritize in the team's direction, other pitching prospects might be more valuable to them than Petty. If the front office believes the team is entering a stronger period of contention in a year or two with the next group of talent coming up, they should prefer to deal Petty rather than more advanced pitchers from a similar tier.

Yes, that's exactly what I meant when I said I would rather give up Petty than someone like Winder (who I think is basically major league ready).

Not just a question of ceiling but also of risk and closeness to contributing.

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2 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

They have Gray under contract for 2022 and a team option at $12M for 2023. It's not one year of Gray, It's 1 + 1 if they want to keep him (and at $12M it's hard to see them declining the option unless he totally goes to crap)

Hence why I said one year of non-competitive (2022) and another (2023) where they might be able to depending on the development of the in-house arms.

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My concern about Pineda, at his age, and with his injury track record, would be how many innings he might give us.

So offer him an incentive laden contract, with a ladder of bonuses for innings pitched beyond 100. Mike has shown us he can pitch. If we could get 140-180 IP from him, he would be worth a fatter contract.

This team still doesn't have a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter, but the Gray acquisition was waay better than the free agent signings of Happ and Shoemaker, which doomed last season before it began.

 

Edited by SkyBlueWaters
fixed a spelling
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Honestly, I don't know what to make of this trade. Reports on Petty were glowing, but reports on prospects like Petty almost always are and we have no real competitive play to judge.

If the reports on Petty aren't overblown, he could be pitching as an ace at the MLB level in two years. More akin to what Gray was... rather than what he is today as Gray has trended downwards (and lost significant velocity). Petty was the first pitcher drafted by Falvey where I was becoming legitimately excited about him. My initial perception was raw hard "thrower" so I wasn't on board the Petty is an ace train. However, the reports made Petty seem like a natural pitcher who had just never needed to use his other pitches because of the elite velocity.

At this point, Gray is probably a 2.0-3.0 WAR mid/back rotation starter so trading Petty could be a colossal mistake. A good front office will never, ever give up a potentially elite prospect for middle of the road, short term MLB talent. 

What I want from this franchise is direction. The Garver trade does not make the Twins better this year in my opinion, and it doesn't really make them better in the future as Garver was controlled just as long as Kiner-Falefa. I'm not bullish on Jeffers at all and I'm awfully skeptical the difference between Kiner-Falefa and Palacios (who has earned a shot in my opinion) at shortstop is more than 1 WAR. The difference between Garver and Jeffers at catcher is probably 3 WAR and I don't view Gray as anything but an average starter the Twins could have signed.

The Twins might be filling holes for this season, but they're not a competitive team without massive ifs being resolved. 

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11 minutes ago, Dman said:

And if he turns into the next Max Sherzer or even the next Ynoa and Gray craters the next two years and or the Twins still don't make the playoffs then the story ends up different.  I think Gray is a fine pitcher I would just have preferred the Twins to buy a guy rather than trade a potential asset.  

Of course, but it takes all parties to agree.  We need to admit we really don't know what they tried to do in free agency.  

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15 minutes ago, GoMNTwins said:

If this was an attractive arm to them, they could have just signed Stroman and kept a prospect. If he's good, he's gone in two years. That's best case scenario. 

It's possible they did try to sign Stroman. 

But 3 years/$71M is a pretty big increase on a one year $10.7M deal with a $12.5M option.  Would 1 extra year be worth an additional $47.8M?  Stroman is making the same amount in 1 year that Gray will make in both years if his option is picked up.  Plus Stroman has the option to opt out of his contract after 2 years so it might not even be a longer deal.

 

Keep in mind they probably would have had to beat that 3/71M deal to sign Stroman too.

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9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 One thing to consider is how much a veteran like Gray helps a pitcher like Ober or Ryan or any other inexperienced guy. It's huge. 

Exactly. Some of the young pitchers we are hoping will develop into front-end starters need to see a guy like Gray over the course of the season. This is a smart move in the right direction. 

We still have a ways to go, but considering how much changes over the course of 162 games, this is a good step, and with any luck maybe some of the young pitching talent we have read about will be pitching well for us in September. 

Look how much changed for us after the optimism of 2021 spring training. 

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Just now, PseudoSABR said:

Both moves help with run prevention, no? 

Sure. Replacing a tire with a hole in it with a bald temporary spare while you're parked at a tire shop helps with driving a car, too. It doesn't mean there weren't far better options...

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9 minutes ago, GoMNTwins said:

If this was an attractive arm to them, they could have just signed Stroman and kept a prospect. If he's good, he's gone in two years. That's best case scenario. 

By definition, they would have had to spend more than 3/$71M to sign Stroman. For Gray, they are paying 1/$10.17M plus a prospect (and getting an option for 2023 in Gray).

The Twins also get a prospect that’s not as highly regarded as the one they are giving up, but that is closer to the majors.  

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