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There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem


3 hours ago, JustWinBaby said:

The Twins won their Division in 2019 and 2020 with Polanco at shortstop and Luis Arraez at 2nd Base.  With this lineup the Twins will maximize their ability to score runs and win games in 2022.  Polanco and Arraez are more than good enough defensively at these positions.

Notably, they also were among the best teams in the league at preventing runs in 2019 and 2020, and among the worst in 2021. 

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9 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Yep. And now look: Galvis is off the table. You're left with Simmons (no thanks) and Iglesias, coming off a horrible season. What else? 

That plan was about sacrificing at SS to invest heavily in pitching (I had them signing Verlander and Gray). That's not happening. The big free agent SP splashes are gone. So now it's about sacrificing at SS to invest for pitching in trades, because that's really their only path to finding significant upgrades at either spot. If they go get Story, I'm fully on board and I drop this idea. I just don't see it happening. 

If this front office has shown anything, it's the ability to make a pivot when things don't go as hoped or planned.

Alright. Good luck with that. I’ll go back to the Vikings section until real baseball updates happen. 

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3 hours ago, Wax off said:

Two division titles are the most recent proof. It's not about his value at SS in a vacuum. It's also about not having to trade for or pay another SS(Polanco is a relatively low cost SS) and being able to play the hot bat at 2B.

Two division titles are proof that a team can technically succeed in by far the weakest division in baseball with Polanco dragging them down at shortstop if they have enough talent to overcome Polanco's limitations.

The single year in Polanco's entire career where he was good enough to earn a starting shortstop job was 2019. That year, he put together an All Star worthy 4.1 fWAR. He's never produced more than 1.6 fWAR in another season at shortstop. That's well below average and considering his lack of physical talent when it comes to his arm, he's certainly worse at shortstop than 2nd base. Second base is worth +2.5 positional runs. Shortstop is worth +7.5. I'd be more than willing to bet Polanco's physical limitations more than makes up for the positional value at shortstop.

All that aside, the Twins are not likely to compete this coming year. With Falvey already talking about starting Austin Martin at shortstop, along with other options like Gordon, Palacios and Arraez, there is no need to shift around one of the most important and tenured players on the Twins just to fill holes as if he's some sort of utility player anyway.


 

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30 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Notably, they also were among the best teams in the league at preventing runs in 2019 and 2020, and among the worst in 2021. 

Notably, the Twins ranked 20th of 30 teams in UZR in 2019 where they ranked DEAD LAST at shortstop by 6.7 runs. Polanco's metrics looked great at shortstop in the shortened 2020 when his fielding percentage was dramatically higher than any other time in his career. The Twins also deploy a far higher shift rate than average teams which inflates defensive value in many metrics meaning players like Polanco get extra credit for plays Brent Rooker could make at shortstop.

Polanco is poor at shortstop, and that's a well established thing. It's also known by the Twins, which is why they mercifully ended the experiment and moved him to 2B last year.

The only possible argument for Polanco at shortstop is "defense doesn't matter." The only reason I could potentially accept defense not mattering is it hasn't mattered as much over the past few years because of the increase of 3 true outcome plate appearances and aggressive shifting; however, MLB owners are actively pushing rules changes which would challenge the 3 outcome hitter dominance and there's certainly grumbling about the shift.

Even then, the argument goes together with "I don't care if prospects get playing time" which I would only accept if the Twins were legitimately eyeing competitive play next year (and I see no signs they are.)

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26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Even then, the argument goes together with "I don't care if prospects get playing time" which I would only accept if the Twins were legitimately eyeing competitive play next year (and I see no signs they are.)

Say what? Giving prospects playing time is exactly the argument in favor of moving Polanco back to SS. It creates much more playing time for the likes of Miranda, Gordon, and Martin. What prospects are not getting playing time as a result of Polanco moving back to short temporarily?

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The only possible argument for Polanco at shortstop is "defense doesn't matter."

More like, defense isn't everything.  The last three years seem to bear that out? The Twins won two divisions and played .600 ball with Polanco at SS in 2019/20. They finished in last place in 2021 with Polanco at 2B, and an all-time great defensive SS signed to replace him. 

No one's saying these are cause-and-effect situations. But you can't make the argument that a good defensive SS is essential to winning. The contradictory evidence is right in front of you. 

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We seem to be arguing against our agreements. In November, I do not recall any lists with Polanco at shortstop. The Twins just sat on their hands and are apparently waiting for a resolution of the CBA. Most of the free agents have signed already and we don't know if the budget for 2022 is less than or greater than $110 million. I wouldn't take either bet, low or high. Thus it comes down to what can be done with our squad. In that event, Polanco could (i believe it unlikely) return to shortstop. I still wonder how Polanco sees all this.

There is still hope though. Trade for Walls, Mondesi, or DEJong or sign Story. Then sign Rodon and Greinke and maybe Conforto - suddenly we are good to go. Right? 

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One thing I am less certain about is defense. I wonder how shifting, lifting and strike outs have changed the value of defense up the middle. I wonder if the measuring tools introduced earlier this century like UZR have kept up with those changes.

Is it that surprising that Polanco had a peak year last year at age 27? Lots of guys have one of their best seasons at 27. His success at the plate likely has nothing to do with his position move.

Is the burden on the ankles significantly different at SS than 2B? Is it more likely that it took a long time to recover to full health and that spanned the 2020 season?

I hope the Twins need at SS is a short term one with both Lewis and Martin close. I don’t want a short term glove first SS filling that hole in 2022. I want to see Arraez, Miranda, Polanco and Donaldson getting significant at at bats. I want to see Lewis or Martin if the show they are dominating AAA. Playing a Polanco at SS can make that happen.

I advocated for this move in November. It still seems like the right move now.

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4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'll add to what the Nicks said:  if we're not willing to sign a Trevor Story or some other big time bat who can field, I'd be totally fine with a Polanco/Arraez middle infield.  What they can do offensively is a major boon and we saw that in our lineup not that long ago.

Meanwhile, a no-glove husk like Andrelton Simmons was a black hole in our lineup day in and day out.  I don't care if he was the Jesus of Shortstops....it ain't worth that black hole.  This isn't your Terry Ryan "Everyone throw a SINKER!" pitching staff any more.  The emphasis on infield defense can take a step back in priority.  

Ideally, sign a guy that can do both and keep Jorge at 2B.  If you can't or won't do that, I won't complain about a MIF that can hit instead of the crap-fest we rolled out at SS last year in the name of defense.

I'd take almost any option over Simmons or someone of that ilk. I think theres a correlation vs. causation argument to be made in regard to Polanco's health/production post position swap, but I don't have a strong opinion on which side of 2B he plays. I agree, acquiring a legit SS should still be in play, especially given the lack of clarity in minors, but I think the most likely scenario is we see some retread like Simmons and we're sold the notion that they'll be out of the picture when Martin or possibly even Lewis show they're ready. Positional fit of prospects aside, this team wouldn't sit the worst offensive player in baseball to get Nick Gordon some run in a season that'd been over for months, hence my "anything but a washed up vet," stance. 

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1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

 

I advocated for this move in November. It still seems like the right move now.

Yes, you did. I was thinking one person had previously suggested Polanco at shortstop. Hard to remember all of the suggestions. I'm on board if there isn't another option, but no tired vets as starters.

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8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The single year in Polanco's entire career where he was good enough to earn a starting shortstop job was 2019. That year, he put together an All Star worthy 4.1 fWAR.

Sounds good...

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Polanco's metrics looked great at shortstop in the shortened 2020 when his fielding percentage was dramatically higher than any other time in his career.

Even better.

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

All that aside, the Twins are not likely to compete this coming year. With Falvey already talking about starting Austin Martin at shortstop, along with other options like Gordon, Palacios and Arraez,

I agree, we are not a contender. I didn't know that about Martin. Doesn't sound like he'll be any better than Polanco at SS from what I hear, like a 45 arm tool. Average defense, almost Polanco in the field but maybe not as good. Likely, a weak arm, maybe worse.

I strongly disagree with you on Arraez though. If some don't want Polanco at SS, Arraez is a worse option imo.

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2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'd take almost any option over Simmons or someone of that ilk. I think theres a correlation vs. causation argument to be made in regard to Polanco's health/production post position swap, but I don't have a strong opinion on which side of 2B he plays. I agree, acquiring a legit SS should still be in play, especially given the lack of clarity in minors, but I think the most likely scenario is we see some retread like Simmons and we're sold the notion that they'll be out of the picture when Martin or possibly even Lewis show they're ready. Positional fit of prospects aside, this team wouldn't sit the worst offensive player in baseball to get Nick Gordon some run in a season that'd been over for months, hence my "anything but a washed up vet," stance. 

Couldn't agree more.  With our "do nothing" approach this offseason we need to utilize this season to gamble on some upside.  Another "plays defense, but can't hit" old guy is the last thing we need.  

I'm a believer that defense matters, but I'm an even bigger believer that an offense that kicks ass every night is the best tool to win.  The Twins run differential (4th best in the league) in 2019 is a testament to that.  A relatively poor defense that year and they still won 101 games.  The idea that you HAVE to play defense to win is demonstrably false.

That said...go get Story.

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Polanco is not a SS. His metrics (and the eye tests) are horrible. The Twins were 9-17 (.346) with him at SS last year and a full season of him and Arraez up the middle would be a disaster.

Simmons couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag, but was one of MLB's top fielding SS's. But he tested positive for Covid and missed time. Several other players also tested positive and received a pass from this forum, but not Simmons because he spoke out against vaccines. Not one of those other positives was traced to Simmons, but he was still vilified.  He was signed as a stop-gap until Lewis was ready, but Lewis got hurt, and the team needs another stop-gap year. Any other year and any other player, and this forum would be all for re-signing said player for another year, even with sub-par offensive numbers, because he would be the best stop-gap option again. 

Polanco is not the best option at SS for this season, or any season going forward, because that would mean Arraez is playing everyday at 2B and that is not good. You can cover one bad defender with offense, but not two, especially up the middle. There are several short term options the team could sign on the cheap, or they could sign Story, further clogging the 2B/SS depth, and go forward, hoping to win 8-7 every night and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle in a trade.

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If Polanco is viewed as a 2B only.

This means we have 0 SS's on the roster. I can see the Twins acquiring a SS but under no circumstances do I see the Twins acquiring 2 players who can play SS. 

Therefore... Polanco will probably be at lowest #2 on the SS depth chart. 

Does anyone here have 162 game expectations for the acquired SS... whoever that may be? 

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2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If Polanco is viewed as a 2B only.

This means we have 0 SS's on the roster. I can see the Twins acquiring a SS but under no circumstances do I see the Twins acquiring 2 players who can play SS. 

Therefore... Polanco will probably be at lowest #2 on the SS depth chart. 

Does anyone here have 162 game expectations for the acquired SS... whoever that may be? 

We know with absolute certainty the Twins view Polanco as a 2nd baseman. 

 

Having zero SS's on the roster seems like another data point in favor of new management. 

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I'm still on the Trevor Story train. Based on our supposed budget (which I maintain is $10M less than everyone talks about it as, because I'm convinced Twins management will be escrowing at least that much "from the budget" to cover any bonuses for Buxton) we still have the money to drop $25M per year on Story. And a) I think he's worth it, b) I'd rather allocate resources to a high-value player at a premium position than on extra crappy "veteran starters" and overrated bullpen guys, c) I don't see Polanco holding up at SS: I see the move as being rough on the defense, bad for his health, and bad for his bat, and d) I don't see Arraez holding up as a regular 2B with his knees. This move is convenient, but not good.

Polanco is not the answer at SS IMHO. If they won't sign Story, get a glove guy in here, trade for someone, something. But Polanco can be an all-star at 2B and we should leave him there. (and frankly, I think the front office and manager agrees with me on this one)

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12 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Polanco is not a SS. His metrics (and the eye tests) are horrible. The Twins were 9-17 (.346) with him at SS last year and a full season of him and Arraez up the middle would be a disaster.

The Twins literally won two straight division titles with those two up to the middle. We're just going to ignore that while pointing out a that bad team was slightly worse last year in a 26-game sample with Polanco starting at SS? Hm.

12 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Polanco is not the best option at SS for this season, or any season going forward, because that would mean Arraez is playing everyday at 2B and that is not good.

Where do you want Arraez to play? I'm perplexed by the idea that getting one of their best hitters into the lineup everyday at his best defensive position is "not good." 

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9 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Where do you want Arraez to play?  

How about right next to this guy - .286/.319/.360? Another light hitting middle infielder, who is now out of the game because he can't hit for power and can't play defense. But he can sure steal bases, 333 of them in his 10 year career. Hint: his younger brother is on this team.

Guys who can hit but can't field better be able to hit for power (Cruz, E. Martinez, Pappi, Baines, Thome) or they will find themselves out of the game, especially if they don't have speed and have a history of knee problems at a young age.

29 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins literally won two straight division titles with those two up to the middle. 

Schoop started 110 games 2B in 2019, 72-38 .654 record. Arraez started 49 games, 34-15 .694 record.

Arraez started 31 games at 2B in 2020, 20-11 .645 record. Marwin Gonzalez started 21, 13-8 .619 record.

So no, not really, and winning percentages were about the same. 

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On 1/24/2022 at 2:26 PM, JustWinBaby said:

The Twins won their Division in 2019 and 2020 with Polanco at shortstop and Luis Arraez at 2nd Base.  With this lineup the Twins will maximize their ability to score runs and win games in 2022.  Polanco and Arraez are more than good enough defensively at these positions.

The Twins did not win their division in 2019 & 2020 because of Polanco was at SS and Arraez at 2B it was in spite of. We no longer have those conditions that existed back then. The main focus of any team shouldn't be on what they got by with in the past but how to better the players that impact them to win the most games as possible. 2019 & 2020 .

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Why is all the talk of moving all these great 2019 SSs off of SS? they all were better defensively than Polanco.  It's because of the success of Polanco and Semien had at 2B. It'd make a lot of more sense to keep them and move Semien back to SS than forcing Polanco back to SS.

Moving Polanco back to SS we not only lose at SS & 2B defensively but also a  huge digression offensively for Polanco.

I'd also I'd like to state that our improvement in the infield made a lot of difference but poor management decisions on pitching (SP &BP) and OF (LF & CF back up)  from the beginning of the season negated all that. Our infield kept us in the game only having it lost by the SP, BP and OF.

We did not lose in 2121 because of our core, we still have an excellent core of players. To think that it was the core's problem and that we have no chance to compete in 2022, so it doesn't  matter what we do at SS is a terrible mistake. Yes we have no rotation, no SS and no real back up at CF. But we have an abundance of redundant players & prospect we need to trade and FA options to fill those positions. If we don't go for it this season don't think they'll ever go for it with this FO.

Moving Polanco back to SS doesn't only tremendously hurts the team, it also hurts tremendously Polanco as a player.

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Let's start with the facts; Polanco is at best an average fielding SSS, Arraez at best a slightly below average fielding 2B.  Polanco is a very good hitting MI, Arraez hits RH pitching well, LH pitching not so well, good OBP, no power.  We don't have another SS on the roster and a trade likely will cost us more than we want to give up. Story is still available and could be within budget but will cost us a contract that runs several years and paying him means no more pitching signings or at most Pineda on a team freindly deal. 

My solutions in rank order -  (1) sign Story, make Arraez and Donaldson a 50/50 3B/Dh combo, Sano plays 1B, Kirilloff LF. Re-sign Pineda, budget now gone, roll with the young pitchers for a year.  Miranda starts on the 26 man, Martin in AAA, both get ABs for rest and injury.  (2) Sign Simmons back on a 1 year deal (or someone similar), sign Rondon and Pineda, everything else the same. (3) Make Gordon the everyday SS, promote Polacios or Martin to be SS competition, everything else same as #2.  (4) Move Polanco to SS, Arraez to 2B and Martin and Miranda get ABs for the 60-80 games that Donaldson is too hurt to play in the field and the 40-60 that Arraez can't physically play in the field. DH spot gets clogged  finding ABs for Garver, Donaldson, Arraez, Sano since ABs are going to an unproven everyday SS.  Numbers 1 and 2 mean we probably win 76-88 games this season and possibly contend for the last playoff spot but most likely miss. Numbers 3 and 4 mean 70-82 wins and no meaningful games in September but better long term development of some young guys. None of these are exciting. Pick your poison. 

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1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Let's start with the facts; Polanco is at best an average fielding SSS, Arraez at best a slightly below average fielding 2B.  Polanco is a very good hitting MI, Arraez hits RH pitching well, LH pitching not so well, good OBP, no power.  We don't have another SS on the roster and a trade likely will cost us more than we want to give up. Story is still available and could be within budget but will cost us a contract that runs several years and paying him means no more pitching signings or at most Pineda on a team freindly deal. 

My solutions in rank order -  (1) sign Story, make Arraez and Donaldson a 50/50 3B/Dh combo, Sano plays 1B, Kirilloff LF. Re-sign Pineda, budget now gone, roll with the young pitchers for a year.  Miranda starts on the 26 man, Martin in AAA, both get ABs for rest and injury.  (2) Sign Simmons back on a 1 year deal (or someone similar), sign Rondon and Pineda, everything else the same. (3) Make Gordon the everyday SS, promote Polacios or Martin to be SS competition, everything else same as #2.  (4) Move Polanco to SS, Arraez to 2B and Martin and Miranda get ABs for the 60-80 games that Donaldson is too hurt to play in the field and the 40-60 that Arraez can't physically play in the field. DH spot gets clogged  finding ABs for Garver, Donaldson, Arraez, Sano since ABs are going to an unproven everyday SS.  Numbers 1 and 2 mean we probably win 76-88 games this season and possibly contend for the last playoff spot but most likely miss. Numbers 3 and 4 mean 70-82 wins and no meaningful games in September but better long term development of some young guys. None of these are exciting. Pick your poison. 

1) Story

2) Polanco to SS. Arraez at 2B. Miranda back up 3B and 2B. Simmons back up SS. Platoon DH of Donaldson, Sano, Garver and Polanco. Martin/Gordon super utility.

Lineup will be Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, Donaldson, Kiriloff, Sano, Garver, Kepler, Miranda/Gordon/Martin/Jeffers/Simmons

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Keep Polanco at 2B to keep him healthy and be able to use his bat in the lineup.

Look to trade Sano - use Kirilloff at 1B

Look to trade Donaldson - possible platoon at first with Kirilloff with Arraez manning 3B on those days

Sign Goodrum as a multi-positional capable player and tell him he has a shot at starting SS

Use Gordon as either starting SS, back-up SS. occasional CF when Buxton is rested or is on the DL

Throw out the "Mr Cheap Pohlad" mentality and spend some money.  AGAIN I ASK.  What would it take from the Twins to acquire: Andrus, Piscotty, & Montas?  A's want to save $$ and by taking on Andrus & Piscotty the Twins soften the bite that Oakland would need for the Twins to get Montas.  Meanwhile, the Twins buy some time by filling their short-term needs for a SS as well as either a starting OF or a platoon partner for Kepler, while giving the Twins some additional time for Martin, Miranda, Larnach, Rooker, Kirilloff   to further develop WITHOUT having to be RUSHED to MLB too Soon.  It also opens the discussion door with Oakland so that AFTER they trade Chapman & Olson, the Twins can discuss Sano and/or a subsidized Donaldson to them for taking Bassitt, Manaea or even  Puk off their hands.  Seems to make better sense than giving any serious consideration to moving Polanco back to SS. 

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22 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We know with absolute certainty the Twins view Polanco as a 2nd baseman. 

 

Having zero SS's on the roster seems like another data point in favor of new management. 

For X-mas a friend of mine gave me a cheap bottle of vodka. 

I really don't care for Vodka much but with the right ingredients I do enjoy a Bloody Mary. 

And... It turns out that cheap vodka is also a decent stain remover. 

The primary purpose of Vodka is to get you drunk as you cross the Ukraine border but it can serve a broader purpose. 😀

 

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I advocated for Polanco to be moved to SS three years ago so that’s how I feel about that. However if they aren’t going to add any proven pitching what difference does it make?  Polo can play SS until they figure it out. 

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12 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm confused why Polanco moving to shortstop magically makes him a crappier hitter?

People are aware he was so good at SS just a few years ago he garnered MVP votes right?

Because if the strain of playing SS gets him injured again, it's going to impact his offense. That's the bigger issue: he doesn't look like he can hold up health-wise there. The additional strain of having to play the position, the increased athletic demand over there appears to be one that he can't really handle, especially with his bum ankle.

Polanco defensively is good at 2B, but average to poor at SS. Healthy Polanco is an excellent hitter at either middle infield spot, but injured Polanco loses a lot of his power production and is a much weaker threat. The odds of him staying healthy are better at 2B. He's better defensively there as well. 

Arraez is a nice hitter (but with no power) and a useful player, who has bad knees at age 24, and probably can't be counted on to play 150+ games in a season in the field. He's not a good SS either, but there's enough playing time to be found for him as the backup at 2B, 3B, LF, and DH to get him 120 games at the plate again.

They need a real SS, someone who can play at least average defense there, not another guy whose best position is anywhere but SS, but "can" play SS.

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If the Twins thought that Polanco and Arraez were the answers up the middle we would have seen that last season, all season. Instead they signed Simmons as a place holder and potential late season mentor for Lewis. moved Polanco to 2B and Arraez moved into a utility role.  Then Lewis got hurt, throwing a wrench into the machine. Nothing has changed, if anything Polanco's season justified the team moving him to 2B and Arraez's ability to move around the diamond, however subpar defensively, coupled with his trips to the IL justified not giving him a starting role. 

Like it or not, the team needs to hit the reset button. Whether they view Lewis as a SS going forward determines what they do next. If they do, they sign another stop-gap veteran. If they don't, they need to sign Story or trade for someone to play SS for the next few seasons.

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23 hours ago, mnfireman said:

How about right next to this guy - .286/.319/.360? Another light hitting middle infielder, who is now out of the game because he can't hit for power and can't play defense. But he can sure steal bases, 333 of them in his 10 year career. Hint: his younger brother is on this team.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. Are... are you saying Luis Arraez should retire because Dee Gordon isn't in the majors anymore at age 33? The same Dee Gordon who was an All-Star at ages 26 & 27? Also, Gordon has a .319 career OBP compared to .374 for Arraez and his OPS is 100 points lower so I'm not sure grouping them together as "light hitting middle infielders" is quite fair. Arraez is an excellent hitter regardless of the lack of power.

23 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Schoop started 110 games 2B in 2019, 72-38 .654 record. Arraez started 49 games, 34-15 .694 record.

Arraez started 31 games at 2B in 2020, 20-11 .645 record. Marwin Gonzalez started 21, 13-8 .619 record.

So no, not really, and winning percentages were about the same. 

So you're telling me the Twins had a .675 winning percentage with Arraez at 2B in 2019 & 20. Doesn't sound "disastrous" to me. 

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