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The Biggest Mistake the Twins' Front Office Made This Offseason


The Twins front office missed an opportunity to tap into a market with significant value prior to the lockout. What was their biggest mistake this offseason?

It’s a commonly held maxim that 40 fWAR gives you a pretty consistent opportunity for October baseball. It’s a pretty basic tenet of roster construction. Throughout the Falvey era, the Twins have shown an impressive level of flexibility in ‘how’ they go about trying to construct a 40 fWAR roster. In 2021, there was an increased emphasis on defense, highlighted by the addition of Andrelton Simmons as their starting shortstop. Ultimately, none of that mattered, as everything that could go wrong, did go wrong in 2021. In considering roster construction through the lens of assembling a 40 fWAR team, Minnesota has come up woefully short in a critical area so far this offseason.

Before we dig into that. Let’s look at some data from 2021, and projections for 2022. For the sake of this argument, I’ll use fWAR actual totals from 2021 and ZiPS projections for 2022, acknowledging that projections are problematic and often difficult to draw meaningful conclusions from. With those caveats in mind, however, there are some meaningful conclusions to draw from these data:

  • The scale of the 2021 Twins failure was pretty magnificent. Given that they haven’t made significant roster additions, there’s essentially a gap of 10 fWAR between their 2021 projection and actual performance, that’s staggering.
  • A 2022 Minnesota Twins offense that is close to its projection has the team in contention pretty much by itself. The Twins’ success will live or die with its excellent offensive core.
  • The Twins are not as far as it may feel from a team that can challenge for an AL Central crown in 2022.

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It’s equally obvious where the flaws are. The Twins bullpen was horrendous in the first half of 2021, evidenced by a higher projection with the same fungible relievers in 2022. There’s room for improvement there, but only so much from the bullpen. 

The Twins’ biggest mistake this offseason was not tapping into the mid-tier starting pitching free agent market, to raise the floor or the rotation. 

Looking at the Twins’ primary competition in the AL Central tells an interesting tale. The White Sox are as reliant on their rotation as the Twins are on their offense. Their rotation is projected over 14 fWAR in 2022. The up-and-coming Tigers, project 9.7 fWAR from their rotation. A similar mark for the Twins would put them just under a projected 40 fWAR for the 2022 season. Where did the Tigers get this boost to jump their rotation to 10 fWAR? Signing Eduardo Rodriguez.

The Twins 2022 rotation is inherently unstable. Dylan Bundy is returning from an incredibly poor 2021, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober had hugely promising debut’s, but their 2022 outcomes are less stable and predictable than say, a Casey Mize or Tarik Skubal, simply due to their small sample sizes in 2021. Why did the Twins front office not aggressively pursue at least one stabilizing starting arm who lives in the 2.0-3.0 fWAR range to stabilize the rotation?

A Blueprint for Success
Let’s use the San Francisco Giants as a point of comparison. Upon initial consideration, comparing the Twins to a 107 win team may seem unfair, but I beg to differ. In 2020, the Giants were a sub .500 team in a shortened season, finishing at 29-31. This improvement mirrors (betters) the Twins improvement from 2018 (78-84), to 2019 (101-61). 

The Giants re-upped with three of their starters from 2021. They signed Alex Wood to a two-year, $25 million contract, Alex Cobb to a two-year, $20 million contract, and Anthony De Sclafani to a three-year $36 million contract. These three pitchers combined for 8.0 fWAR in 2021 and project for 7.8 fWAR in 2022. They average, together, $11.5 million per year when considering their contracts cumulatively. Each of these pitchers is likely to accumulate around $16-20 million in value based on their projections for 2022. There is value to be had in the mid-tier starting pitching market, which the Twins chose to ignore. Even signing one pitcher of this profile takes the teams’ projection to just under 39 fWAR in 2022 and does not inhibit your financial flexibility (they’re not spending big on a shortstop anyway, folks).

The Twins front office has built a team that relies on offense and is pre-disposed to take advantage of the value in the mid-tier pitching market. Minnesota is not signing the front of the rotation starting pitchers and has not shown aggression in pursuing pitching upgrades on the trade market. While the lockout has frozen out any additional roster construction since the beginning of December, I’m no closer to understanding their roster construction strategy for pitching, a confounding frustration that may come back to haunt the 2022 Twins.

 


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You hit the nail on the head.  The biggest mistake was letting the Tigers out-bid them for Ed-Rod.  I think he's going to have a pretty good year.  The other mistake, failing with Ed-Rod who was signed very EARLY by the Tigers,  was not recognizing their mistake quickly and making a big push for Robbie Ray or at least signing someone like Jon Gray.  As I have pointed out numerous times and your article underscores:  The Twins should not be THAT far from competing for the Division Crown.  They were the two-time Division Winners in 2019 & 2020.  In 2021, absolutely everything that could have gone wrong, DID go wrong.  That's why this FO should be on the hot seat.  In their time in charge, they've had two off seasons where EVERYTHING went wrong.  That's not bad luck.  That's badly miscalculating.  That type of FO performance cannot be accepted.  

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Interesting analysis, Jamie.  I agree 100% that the biggest mistake the FO has made this offseason is not dipping into the free agent pitching market.  Maybe they will make a trade, but why not sign a good arm in free agency when it costs nothing in prospect capital?  If they signed Wood, for example, they could then trade for a Montas type pitcher, sign Pineda and have a decent rotation which would only get better if one of the young guys is ready this spring.  

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10 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

You hit the nail on the head.  The biggest mistake was letting the Tigers out-bid them for Ed-Rod.  I think he's going to have a pretty good year.  The other mistake, failing with Ed-Rod who was signed very EARLY by the Tigers,  was not recognizing their mistake quickly and making a big push for Robbie Ray or at least signing someone like Jon Gray.  As I have pointed out numerous times and your article underscores:  The Twins should not be THAT far from competing for the Division Crown.  They were the two-time Division Winners in 2019 & 2020.  In 2021, absolutely everything that could have gone wrong, DID go wrong.  That's why this FO should be on the hot seat.  In their time in charge, they've had two off seasons where EVERYTHING went wrong.  That's not bad luck.  That's badly miscalculating.  That type of FO performance cannot be accepted.  

I am a little confused by the logic behind the statement that the FO should be blamed for everything went wrong that could go wrong.  It isn't their fault that Simmons refused vaccination, or injuries hit the team, or that players performed poorly.  If those factors were known ahead of time, they would have been addressed.  I am losing faith in the FO (just as most fans have) but I'm not about to blame them for things not in their control.

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I find the premise that a mid-rotation vet arm is inherently better than a rookie would be.  Yes, they have track records, but that never means success going forward, just longer track to look at.  You never know what the vet pitcher will actually do, sometimes they do better than expected, or they do much worse.  The assumption that they will do as projected and a rookie will be worse because they have less to work off of to me is a poor way to build a team.  At some point the rookies need to play.  Maybe all the people that expect the rotation to fail will be right, but maybe they will be wrong.  We are all just speculators based on limited information as outsiders to the organization.  The team still may make a trade or sign one of the few left. 

I hope all the posters remember how much money the they wanted the Twins to put into some of the pitchers this year and look in two years how they would feel having many of the guys that signed on the same contracts. I would bet they would look back and say hmm maybe it was good not to sign them.    

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Fully agree with mikelink45. Waiting for leftovers is NOT a winning strategy. (aka Shoemaker and Happ).

I just fully believe they never planned to add FA pitchers. Maybe a resign of Pineda and that'll be it. If no Pineda then they throw Bundy in with Ober, Ryan, Jax, Dobnak...... they are content to start the season with them and then dip into the minors pool of young arms to fill holes. Remember they said they want to be "competitive". That's not the same thing as winning a playoff game or World Series.

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None of us know what the FO is thinking as they prepare for 2022.  Have they had discussions with Team X and will pull the plug on an Odorizzi type trade after the lockout ends?  Are they near an agreement with Pineda that will be signed at that time?  Do they have reports that Maeda's recovery is ahead of schedule and he could/should be back by July 4th?  Add Pineda and a solid Odorizzi level starter together with the young guns and you have the making of a decent rotation.  

Are they planning on piggy backing young arms for a couple spots in the rotation?  Considering the innings most of the kids threw last year, that could make sense.

So many posts, including this one, blame the Twins FO for doing little prior to the lockout.  It seems many of you think they went out for dinner or drinking in early November and failed to get back to work prior to December.  I doubt that was the case.  The truth is that we don't know what their plan is, although likely have one.  Not doing what most of us would like, isn't necessarily a failure.

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It does not make sense to me to insist they made a mistake or they are waiting a year unless you can provide examples of below average revenue  teams that went deep in the playoffs the year after adding the 3 SPs via trade/ free agency or a combination therefore of with 2 of those spots being the top of their rotation.  Lots of insistence here that the appropriate strategy was obvious but not a single example of when it was successful.  For every example provided of top free agents or trades for top SPs, I will come up with 3 success stories where the team was primarily built on players they drafted or traded for before they were established performers at the MLB level.  It's not a mistake to follow the best practices.

Let's see some examples of below ave Rev teams that built pitching staffs through trading for established SPs and/or signing  top free agents.  

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I'm not a fan of this FO but I can't believe they are done addressing pitching yet. They must have a trade in store. We have 30+ years of Pohlad ownership so I'll never blame the FO on payroll issues, which is what I think is stopping them from going after many of these arms. Falvey was hired to build a pitching pipeline, not rely on free agents. That's exactly why the Pohlad's hired him. We'll see if he can create one.

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1 hour ago, RJA said:

Interesting analysis, Jamie.  I agree 100% that the biggest mistake the FO has made this offseason is not dipping into the free agent pitching market.  Maybe they will make a trade, but why not sign a good arm in free agency when it costs nothing in prospect capital?  If they signed Wood, for example, they could then trade for a Montas type pitcher, sign Pineda and have a decent rotation which would only get better if one of the young guys is ready this spring.  

I agree for sure. I think the biggest question I have with not taking that approach, is the Giants aren't even paying market value for the pitchers they signed. If Wood is worth 2.0 fWAR in 2022, that's worth around $16 million, he's making 10-12. It's a bargain. Even if the Twins 'overpaid' it would still likely produce market value for them.

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1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

I am a little confused by the logic behind the statement that the FO should be blamed for everything went wrong that could go wrong.  It isn't their fault that Simmons refused vaccination, or injuries hit the team, or that players performed poorly.  If those factors were known ahead of time, they would have been addressed.  I am losing faith in the FO (just as most fans have) but I'm not about to blame them for things not in their control.

I definitely agree with you. Didn't mean for that comment to sound as if i was conflating the FO with all that went wrong in 2021, there was A TON out of their control. I just meant, performance wise, nothing clicked if you compare projections to where players actually landed.

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1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

We are all confused by the inaction, but we should not be surprised.  This FO likes to wait - just ask Lynn - and take players that are ready for a bargain contract.  Not a good strategy for a team that is ready to contend, but seems to be a Twins pattern.

I agree Mike. I also think they've shown flexibility though (e.g. focusing on defense last year) on how they team build, so I still personally struggle with them not showing similar flexibility by being more aggressive where there is market value to be had.

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54 minutes ago, Trov said:

I find the premise that a mid-rotation vet arm is inherently better than a rookie would be.  Yes, they have track records, but that never means success going forward, just longer track to look at.  You never know what the vet pitcher will actually do, sometimes they do better than expected, or they do much worse.  The assumption that they will do as projected and a rookie will be worse because they have less to work off of to me is a poor way to build a team.  At some point the rookies need to play.  Maybe all the people that expect the rotation to fail will be right, but maybe they will be wrong.  We are all just speculators based on limited information as outsiders to the organization.  The team still may make a trade or sign one of the few left. 

I hope all the posters remember how much money the they wanted the Twins to put into some of the pitchers this year and look in two years how they would feel having many of the guys that signed on the same contracts. I would bet they would look back and say hmm maybe it was good not to sign them.    

I definitely agree, you never know. However, I specifically think there is a sub-stack of mid-rotation, FA pitching (DeSclafani is a god example) where there's a more predictable level of stability to be had. The Twins never attack this because their recent strategy has been 'we'll tweak a guy who struggled recently (e.g. Bundy).

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13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

 

It does not make sense to me to insist they made a mistake or they are waiting a year unless you can provide examples of below average revenue teams that went deep in the playoffs the year after adding the 3 SPs via trade/ free agency or a combination therefore of with 2 of those spots being the top of their rotation.  Lots of insistence here that the appropriate strategy was obvious but not a single example of when it was successful.  For every example provided of top free agents or trades for top SPs, I will come up with 3 success stories where the team was primarily built on home grown pitching.  It's not a mistake to follow the best practices.

Let's see some examples.  

The Giants just won 107 games with a mostly FA rotation. Not of a deep playoff run of course, but a good example. I'm not suggesting such a black and white approach, merely that there's value in that market to add stability. Adding that type of value doesn't preclude the Twins from relying on the stable of very exciting high minors arm talent they have.

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IMO the biggest mistake was the FO not giving the fans an inkling of a plan.

Leaving us to speculate on what is going on, the fans that aren't fans or are skeptical of this FO complaining (with facts, predictions, history. etc..) and the fans of this FO with explaining (with facts, predictions, rationale and hope, lots and lots of hope).

So coming off a couple of playoffs, followed by a season from hell, we have no real idea what is going to happen in 2022, and that IMO is the biggest mistake.

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1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

 It isn't their fault that Simmons refused vaccination, or injuries hit the team, or that players performed poorly.  If those factors were known ahead of time, they would have been addressed.  I am losing faith in the FO (just as most fans have) but I'm not about to blame them for things not in their control.

what does Simmons missing 7 games have to do with this?

Isn't it the FO that allowed Happ to pitch 98 innings with an ERA of 6.77, Shoemaker to pitch 60 innings with a 8.06 ERA, Jax to pitch 82 innings with a 6.37 ERA, Dobnak to pitch 50 innings with a 7.64 ERA, didn't this FO bring in Colome and Roblies?

Isn't it this FO that left with twins with Cave as the back up center fielder if and when Buxton was going to get hurt?

Yes the Twins suffered injuries, but isn't it the front office job to have a plan in place for injuries? As for the injuries to basically all of the pitching prospects, I don't know but was that unique to the Twins or did it happen all over baseball?

(IMO, but no data to back this up, I think it might have to do with the pitching philosophy of going all out every pitch for 3-5 innings, after missing 2020 season that might have had a negative effect on these young arms, most of which hadn't pitched a ton of innings prior to 2020, compared to what somebody like Berrios had pitched in the minors. 30.2, 103.2, 140, 166.1 (some where on the same path as him, but 2020 messed that up)

 

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As most fans have said in this post and alot of other post is a plan or construction of a team towards competitiveness  ......

 

I for one would like the front office to be straightforward  with their plan with the fans .

 

If the plan is to use the talent we have in prospects for the roster , so be it ...

 

If the plan it is to trade prospects for some  starting pitching , so be it ...

If the plan is to dumpster dive , so be it ....

 

Just give us a plan and maybe we can patiently wait out their plan  .....

 

 

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1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I'm not a fan of this FO but I can't believe they are done addressing pitching yet. They must have a trade in store. We have 30+ years of Pohlad ownership so I'll never blame the FO on payroll issues, which is what I think is stopping them from going after many of these arms. Falvey was hired to build a pitching pipeline, not rely on free agents. That's exactly why the Pohlad's hired him. We'll see if he can create one.

The Pohlads have owned the Twins for 40 years. It’s been 30 yrs. since their last World Series game. 

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2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

You hit the nail on the head.  The biggest mistake was letting the Tigers out-bid them for Ed-Rod.  I think he's going to have a pretty good year.  The other mistake, failing with Ed-Rod who was signed very EARLY by the Tigers,  was not recognizing their mistake quickly and making a big push for Robbie Ray or at least signing someone like Jon Gray.  As I have pointed out numerous times and your article underscores:  The Twins should not be THAT far from competing for the Division Crown.  They were the two-time Division Winners in 2019 & 2020.  In 2021, absolutely everything that could have gone wrong, DID go wrong.  That's why this FO should be on the hot seat.  In their time in charge, they've had two off seasons where EVERYTHING went wrong.  That's not bad luck.  That's badly miscalculating.  That type of FO performance cannot be accepted.  

There are many mindsets that this FO commits themselves to. These mindsets blinds them from seeing opportunities and needs they need to jump on. The mindset that's related to this article is that they like to sit and wait for the FA gets picked over and low ball who ever is left . Last year they scaped the bottom of the barrel for Shoemaker, Colume' and Happ ( they way over-paid him) and totally over-look the trade opportunities. IMO they need to evaluate their needs and who's under the radar to best fill those areas.

They have get out of their mindset  of hoarding redundant players and prospect while hurting at crucial areas. IMO trades are the best way to satisfy those needs. Trades you don't sit back and see what's left, you jump out and push trades you need. Trades should've been made before lock-down. After lock-down there'll be a mad scramble and the Twins will be left w/ no trades & scraping the bottom of the barrel again more likely w/ less available than last year. For us to ever progress in the post season, the FO needs to get out of their comfort zone and mindsets.

 

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3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

 

It does not make sense to me to insist they made a mistake or they are waiting a year unless you can provide examples of below average revenue  teams that went deep in the playoffs the year after adding the 3 SPs via trade/ free agency or a combination therefore of with 2 of those spots being the top of their rotation.  Lots of insistence here that the appropriate strategy was obvious but not a single example of when it was successful.  For every example provided of top free agents or trades for top SPs, I will come up with 3 success stories where the team was primarily built on players they drafted or traded for before they were established performers at the MLB level.  It's not a mistake to follow the best practices.

Let's see some examples of below ave Rev teams that built pitching staffs through trading for established SPs and/or signing  top free agents.  

 

3 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

The Giants just won 107 games with a mostly FA rotation. Not of a deep playoff run of course, but a good example. I'm not suggesting such a black and white approach, merely that there's value in that market to add stability. Adding that type of value doesn't preclude the Twins from relying on the stable of very exciting high minors arm talent they have.

I appreciate someone finally providing an example.  However, how are the Giants relevant in a discussion about strategies employed by below average revenue teams?  They are a top 5 team in terms of revenue.    

It's also not fair to just generalize they were FA acquisitions in the context of this discussion.  The claim here is that the Twins failed strategically because they did not sign any of the top FAs which of course is consistent with long-term  expensive free agents.  The Giants top performer was signed in 2020 on a 1 year $9M  deal and then resigned to a qualifying offer, another 1 year deal.  That's hardly the same thing as what they are being criticized for here.  And, BTW, they did not resign him (even with theri revenue) when it required a 5 year contract. 

There other top performer (Webb) was drafted.  They also got solid production from Alex Wood on a 2/$25M contract.  Also not at all the same as what people are calling for here and certainly not what the Twins need to get back in contention.  They do have a huge contract on the books (Cueto) which produced virtually nothing after the first year.  Equating how the Giants were built or where their production came from to the strategies being called for here is a real reach, huge revenue difference not withstanding.

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First of all, you talk as if E-Rod is Randy Johnson. he is NOT- nowhere even close. Second, the off-season is on hold so it's almost impossible to determine what will happen going forward. Thirdly, the White Sox may lose at least 1 major starter and could lose one big reliever. Finally, I think the Twins starters and bullpen will be more improved than you have them listed. However, we will see how it all shakes out. After a poor year in 2021, many are looking at a .500 season as being a possible target. We are still in a very weak division (except for the White Sox) so improvement can come quickly. But I do agree that there are key pieces that need to be added.

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2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The claim here is that the Twins failed strategically because they did not sign any of the top FAs which of course is consistent with expensive free agents.

Isn't the claim mid-tier and not top FA's?

This is taken directly from the article

 "The Twins’ biggest mistake this offseason was not tapping into the mid-tier starting pitching free agent market, to raise the floor or the rotation.  "

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Isn't the claim mid-tier and not top FA's?

This is taken directly from the article

 "The Twins’ biggest mistake this offseason was not tapping into the mid-tier starting pitching free agent market, to raise the floor or the rotation.  "

 

 

You have a point.  So show me examples of where a team added a couple of mid tier free agents that carried them to success in the playoffs without already having homegrown talent leading the rotation.   

What I see in all of these responses is a desperate desire to be as good as possible next year and a complete refusal to do what's necessary to actually build a contender.  That's why people are at odds with the front office.

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1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

You have a point.  So show me examples of where a team added a couple of mid tier free agents that carried them to success in the playoffs without already having homegrown talent leading the rotation.   

Again I am going to point out what the original author wrote.

"It’s a commonly held maxim that 40 fWAR gives you a pretty consistent opportunity for October baseball. It’s a pretty basic tenet of roster construction."

I guess IMO the original premise was putting together roster that had an opportunity to play October baseball not a roster to win the world series. So the need to prove that is how other teams got to around 40 fWAR is kind of irrelevant in my mind, based on this article.

So with a offense/defense at 24.8, my simple math that puts needing a pitching staff at just over 15. with the current roster is short about 4, getting two midtier starting pitchers gets you around 40.

Will that guarantee anything, not at all, but it is one view of constructing a roster that probably will compete for the playoffs. As currently constructed based on this logic, either the offense or pitching staff is going to have to really exceed expectations, how often does that happen with a dozen or so pitchers with little or no experience? (I don't know)

To be fair I get your points, just not sure how they fit with this premise.

 

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28 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Again I am going to point out what the original author wrote.

"It’s a commonly held maxim that 40 fWAR gives you a pretty consistent opportunity for October baseball. It’s a pretty basic tenet of roster construction."

I guess IMO the original premise was putting together roster that had an opportunity to play October baseball not a roster to win the world series. So the need to prove that is how other teams got to around 40 fWAR is kind of irrelevant in my mind, based on this article.

So with a offense/defense at 24.8, my simple math that puts needing a pitching staff at just over 15. with the current roster is short about 4, getting two midtier starting pitchers gets you around 40.

Will that guarantee anything, not at all, but it is one view of constructing a roster that probably will compete for the playoffs. As currently constructed based on this logic, either the offense or pitching staff is going to have to really exceed expectations, how often does that happen with a dozen or so pitchers with little or no experience? (I don't know)

To be fair I get your points, just not sure how they fit with this premise.

 

I understand where you are coming from as well.  However, there is one overriding principle that everyone who wants a quick fix ignores with the type of justification listed here or the many other forms we have seen.  The evidence / history  is quite clear in terms of how successful teams are build.  Literally, not one person has provided an example of success yet there are countless posts insisting the path to success is a product of strategies that rarely if ever succeed.  It's one thing to be unaware.  It's another to absolutely refuse to look at history which is the closest thing we have to fact.

Ironically, I see building from within as the best way to make it feasible to utilize free agency.  I believe we will have enough home grown players + Maeda for a rotation next year.  A that point we will both have more funds and a better idea of where they should be spent.  Maybe that's a front of the rotation guy.  Maybe that's a SS or maybe they could afford both.  Basically the Rays way while spending another $60M.

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I guess my question to all of this is would people be happy, and say the FO was successful, if they come out of the lockout and sign Pineda and Duffy? Those are two mid-tier pitchers still available. Is the complaint simply that they didn't do this before the lockout? If 2 mid-tier arms is all people are wanting I don't get why I've read hundreds of "fire Falvine!" or "the FO failed!" or similar posts over the last month. 2 mid-tier arms are easily found still. Is this just a "they didn't do it fast enough" complaint?

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