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Falvine still on pace with their plan... whatever that may be.


Doc Munson
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The one thing that should speak the loudest that Falvine's plan is still intact, regardless of what everyone else thinks...

Starting pitchers  have flown off the board. it would be one thing if they Twins had made offers to pitchers but were outbid. The fact that we never even made an offer on any level of free agent pitcher means that Falvine's plans never included FA signings. IF we had TRIED to sing one and failed then the situation would be different.

So with that in mind you have to ask yourself... What is Falvine's plan if ti was never to sign a FA pitcher?

Option #1 They favor themselves pitching whisperers, and they plan on going full on youth movement.  With prospects such as Balazovic, Duran, Richardson, Winder, Canterino, Strottman etc all getting serious looks in the rotation. to go along with Ober, Ryan, Bundy. (and presumably still potentially Pineda).

The fact our only FA signing shows we do not want to be committed to any veteran pitcher past this year.  WHY??  Well because we are going to use this year to give all of our young pitchers innings to see what they can do starting in 2023.

Since we are more than just one big FA oitching signing or trade away from being realistically competitive, I hope we do not trade away our positional prospects,   Even top ranked "can't miss' pitching prospects miss more often than not, I do not want to deal position players for prospect pitching.

SO Ultimately regardless of lack of FA activity, whatever Falvine's plans are they are still on track.

Curious, what do you think Falvine's plan is? 

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I think we can conclude that they are certainly averse to spending money on pitchers that are going to cost over $10M a year... but they have yet to skimp on payroll. I am confident they're going to spend... I just don't know where. Maybe they'll go for one of the big hitters on the market and then spend the rest on one year deals on pitchers.

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The Twins have and most likely will continue to develop their own pitching because that’s what ownership wants.  The cupboard of pitching prospects was depleted when Falvey & Lavine arrived because poor pitching draft selection.  When the Twins decided  to draft power hitting only tool draftees.  The Twins are paying for their poor drafts of previous 10 yrs. before the current F came in. I agree agree that.   22 should see the. Twin’s reap the benefits of the new  prospects.  But the Twins will need to trade for a couple of bridge starting pitchers such as Bassitt and Manaea from the “A” or S. Gray from the Reds & maybe re-sign Pineda that have a future for 1-3 yrs. Since ownership is always bitching about money and high priced pitching any two of four will cost about  $18-20m. The Twins could  move some of their sacred players maybe at discount prices. The Twins need to get rid of their 1 tool players such as Sano’. 

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13 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Falvey also elected to develop pitching instead of signing big name FA's in Cleveland also. Some of those guys turned out okay, maybe it will happen here....

The reluctance to sign big name free agent SPs who get 5+ years is made out to be a "Twins" thing here everyday.  How many have been signed by Oakland / Indians / Twins / Mariners / Dbacks / Brewers / Rays / Reds / Orioles /  Pirates / Marlins / Padres / Rockies / Royals.  Just an FYI, I listed them by the number of 90 win seasons over the past 20 years.
            
The answer is 2.  The Dbacks signed Greinke in 2016 after getting a billion dollar TV contract.  The won 69 / 93 / 82 games and traded him at 2019 deadline.   The Rockies sign Dan Hamption to an 8 year deal in 2001 and that deal was a complete disaster.  

Are we to conclude that all of these teams just don't understand the value of signing the top free agent SPs?

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I never envisioned the Twins to go all in for 2022 despite many here expecting otherwise and the FO telling everyone they are going to be competitive in 2022. Competitive is a word used to excite the fan base and can be used lightly at anytime because everyone has a different idea of what competitive really is. The FO can put the same type of players on the field in 2022 and expect them to be competitive because that is what they expected from them in 2021. If and when they don't perform at the level needed to be competitive they can just say things didn't work out as planned. Players rarely perform as well as expected or HOPED and there goes the season down the crapper. Each year during the off-season we sit here waiting for the Twins to sign a top FreeAgent Pitcher or Player that could make a difference and they don't even try. I have come to believe I won't see another Twins World Series Championship in my lifetime. They don't even try.

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Totally agree with not spending big on long-term contracts with pitchers, see MLR's comment as the answer why.

Expect they will sign one more free agent, whenever the lockout is over.  Probably Pineda, or someone like him.  Could also complete a Odorizzi type trade, or not.  

Personally, have no problem with them going into the season with Pineda/pitcher X, Bundy, Ober, Ryan and one of Dobnak, Jax, or another rookie like Winder/Strotman/etc.  When Pineda or Bundy is injured or ineffective, replacements will come from the Dobnak, Jax, etc. group.  Is this a staff that wins or even gets to the World Series?  No, not in 2022.  But with the guys that should start coming later in 2022, they just might be good enough come 2023 or moreso in 2024.

I want to add that the Front Office's moves the past year plus confirm the point Doc Munson is making, ie, they have a plan and are sticking to it.  Trading Cruz for two top starters who are close.  Then following that move by trading their top starter, Berrios, for two very high prospects including one who is very young.  In addition to confirming they are adverse to signing any pitcher to a big long-term contract, they added three excellent prospects to an already strong pipeline.  

Unfortunately, it means we have to sit back and probably suffer through one more mediocre season before some of those kids are performing at Target Field.

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Some of the people who are ok with using prospects and near no MLB experience to substitute for a major league pitching staff will be amongst the first to complain about the on field results.  It has become quite obvious they are not looking to compete.  At this pace their payroll will be significantly reduced compared to the past few years.  I hope 1 or 2 of these "prospects" pan out or it will be another bad season.  Maybe the  great Byron Buxton can pitch.  They may need him 

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2 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Levine might "bristle" at the idea of a rebuild, but that is exactly what he is doing.

When I think of a rebuild, the examples that come to mind are Chicago trading away Sale and Eaton with 3 years of control or when the Astros traded away every veteran player knowing they were going to be a 60 win team.  The Mariners trading away Cano and Diaz after an 89 win season.  If the Twins were rebuilding I would expect them to trade away any veteran players of value.  They would surely trade Donaldson even if it were for partial salary relief.  Polanco / Kepler / Sano / Rodgers / Duffey / Garver would all be traded.  Isn't that what rebuilding teams do?

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3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

When I think of a rebuild, the examples that come to mind are Chicago trading away Sale and Eaton with 3 years of control or when the Astros traded away every veteran player knowing they were going to be a 60 win team.  The Mariners trading away Cano and Diaz after an 89 win season.  If the Twins were rebuilding I would expect them to trade away any veteran players of value.  They would surely trade Donaldson even if it were for partial salary relief.  Polanco / Kepler / Sano / Rodgers / Duffey / Garver would all be traded.  Isn't that what rebuilding teams do?

I'm not sure you noticed, but there's a lockout that forbids any transactions involving MLB players. Let's see what happens post lockout and at the trade deadline

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Knowing Twins ownership when it comes to payroll historically - doesn't it make sense that when looking for Terry Ryan's replacement - something that appealed to the Polads during Falvine's interview certainly would be his track record of being able to develop pitching.  Developing your own talent compared to signing free agents is a potential way to spend less money and still put a competitive team on the field.  Its been a few years - they let them spend a decent amount the first few years, but now that we need pitchers - this is what Falvine is supposed to be good at, so if I were the owners - this is when I would also ask them "hey remember how you bragged about being a pitcher whisperer" - show me. 

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2 hours ago, Sconnie said:

I'm not sure you noticed, but there's a lockout that forbids any transactions involving MLB players. Let's see what happens post lockout and at the trade deadline

I will join you in condemning him for saying one thing and doing another if he trades away these core players.  However, you said "Levine might "bristle" at the idea of a rebuild, but that is exactly what he is doing." as if these actions have taken place.  Call me old fashion but I don't believe in calling a man a liar because of what I think he is going to do.  Lock out aside, let's wait until this action is taken before judging actions.

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7 hours ago, Old fox said:

 The cupboard of pitching prospects was depleted when Falvey & Lavine arrived because poor pitching draft selection.  When the Twins decided  to draft power hitting only tool draftees. 

Continuing to say this over and over doesn't make it true, it has been shown over and over again the cupboard wasn't depleted.

And hasn't it been this FO that has been drafting power hitting tool only? Rooker, Larnach, Sabato, etc...

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

When I think of a rebuild, the examples that come to mind are Chicago trading away Sale and Eaton with 3 years of control or when the Astros traded away every veteran player knowing they were going to be a 60 win team.  The Mariners trading away Cano and Diaz after an 89 win season.  If the Twins were rebuilding I would expect them to trade away any veteran players of value.  They would surely trade Donaldson even if it were for partial salary relief.  Polanco / Kepler / Sano / Rodgers / Duffey / Garver would all be traded.  Isn't that what rebuilding teams do?

I tend to agree they aren't doing a tear down and rebuild, they are trying to re-tool on the fly, hoping the pitching prospects work out. I tend to believe they have kind hoped to do the tear down, but were given a team much better than expected and had to change their plans, and now are kind of stuck between the rock and the hard place. First they kind of have a 40 man roster issue, so trading away vets means bring much younger prospects back and trading away the only real FA signing and eating part of the contract means that was a complete failure. Covid and all the injures last year contribute to the situation as well.

So they are where they have been the last few years, supplement a better than average team until more prospects are ready.

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The indication is they are pursuing some form of piggy-backing. I hope they are sitting back to see how the Rodon situation pans out, to plug him in their equation. And or going for the best SP trading opportunity, that would be the wise thing to do not hording redundant players & prospects. We have a fantastic established core, it would be a shame and a mistake not to go for it. To give up and just go in-house, depending solely on green prospects w/o no impact veteran SP would be a disastrous. Which would take longer for our prospect to really develop into the players we want them to be.

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35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I will join you in condemning him for saying one thing and doing another if he trades away these core players.  However, you said "Levine might "bristle" at the idea of a rebuild, but that is exactly what he is doing." as if these actions have taken place.  Call me old fashion but I don't believe in calling a man a liar because of what I think he is going to do.  Lock out aside, let's wait until this action is taken before judging actions.

I don't think Thad Levine is a "Liar", I think he believes in a narrative that they aren't "rebuilding" they are "re-tooling". As others have posted, it's a delineation that I don't see a difference in. 

You are right, I'm premature in my assumption that the Twins are planning to roll into the season with the pitching staff as-it, and I'm premature in assuming they'll trade-off Polanco and Garver. I don't think they'll trade Sano or Donaldson just because it won't bring back value.

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The FO has been around long enough that the problems they have now are ones they created. It's time to put the past Terry Ryan excuses to bed. Target Field was built to keep in-grown talent and get top Free Agents. They have failed to do both with any consistancy. Whatever their plan is that everyone here is speculating about, hasn't worked so far. "0" (that's a "Zero") playoff wins much less a Championship equals failure. But hey, they said they'll be competitive. Looks like "Competitive" is their goal, not a Championship. BIG DIFFERENCE!

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I am always bothered by posts that blame the previous regime.  At this point the current regime has had 5 years.  

I had to go back and look at the Twins draft picks  and while they are not great - the Twins took Kyle Gibson in the first round in 2009 and teams still want to sign him.  As a matter of fact he is doing much better with other teams.   Glen Perkins was a first rounder and did great.  Kohl Stewart, Alex Wimmers, Tyler Jay, and Carlos Gutierrez have been busts.   I only looked at the first round.  While not great - it had some promise.  The other rounds I do not know.  I just want more justification for constantly trying to blame the last regime instead of concentrating on this one. 

The draft that got us Berrios, also had Buxton (non pitcher), J T Chargois Now with Tampa Bay, Luke Bard now an Angel, Mason Melotakis who did not make it and later on Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers  That is not bad drafting - five in the majors right now.  

2013 was not as good - Eades, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers now an Angel, and Mitch Garver. 

2014 - Nick Burdi with San Diego (we all expected a lot from him, but injuries ruined his career), Jake Reed now with the Mets, and John Curtiss now with the Brewers. A late pick was Trevor Hildenberger who is now with the Giants.

2015 Tyler Jay and Kyle Cody were busts, Jovani Moran looks like he will fit in the BP with ease.  Klye Stashak has been off and on with the team and LaMonte Wade is happy to be in SF.  

2016 we got Kiriloff, Rortvedt, and Miranda before taking our first pitcher - Griffen Jax.  Balazovic, and Mason look like they have a future with the Twins.  Tyler Wells is with Baltimore and Sean Poppen is with Tampa Bay.  

2017 is the last year I will look at.  I know we got Bailey Ober and Blayne Enlow.  and Jordan Gore.

Only one top two pitcher - Berrios, one mid range starter Gibson, one low end starter Ober and a bunch of BP pieces.  Great - No, but horrible NO.

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1 hour ago, Sconnie said:

I don't think Thad Levine is a "Liar", I think he believes in a narrative that they aren't "rebuilding" they are "re-tooling". As others have posted, it's a delineation that I don't see a difference in. 

You are right, I'm premature in my assumption that the Twins are planning to roll into the season with the pitching staff as-it, and I'm premature in assuming they'll trade-off Polanco and Garver. I don't think they'll trade Sano or Donaldson just because it won't bring back value.

The difference is the "normal" timeframe associated with rebuilds.  5 years for a rebuild would generally be pretty good.  The Royals had 20 years of rebuilding before having a coupe good seasons before they went into rebuild mode again.  The plan it appears they are following would mean investing 1 year.  Obviously, they need to have some success establishing a couple SPs this year or they are in the same position as this year.  I assume you see a distinction between investing a year and going through a 5+ year rebuild, right?

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On 12/26/2021 at 8:35 PM, Doc Munson said:

The one thing that should speak the loudest that Falvine's plan is still intact, regardless of what everyone else thinks...

Starting pitchers  have flown off the board. it would be one thing if they Twins had made offers to pitchers but were outbid. The fact that we never even made an offer on any level of free agent pitcher means that Falvine's plans never included FA signings. IF we had TRIED to sing one and failed then the situation would be different.

So with that in mind you have to ask yourself... What is Falvine's plan if ti was never to sign a FA pitcher?

Option #1 They favor themselves pitching whisperers, and they plan on going full on youth movement.  With prospects such as Balazovic, Duran, Richardson, Winder, Canterino, Strottman etc all getting serious looks in the rotation. to go along with Ober, Ryan, Bundy. (and presumably still potentially Pineda).

The fact our only FA signing shows we do not want to be committed to any veteran pitcher past this year.  WHY??  Well because we are going to use this year to give all of our young pitchers innings to see what they can do starting in 2023.

Since we are more than just one big FA oitching signing or trade away from being realistically competitive, I hope we do not trade away our positional prospects,   Even top ranked "can't miss' pitching prospects miss more often than not, I do not want to deal position players for prospect pitching.

SO Ultimately regardless of lack of FA activity, whatever Falvine's plans are they are still on track.

Curious, what do you think Falvine's plan is? 

I wonder if Tampa Bay Rays fans complain about lack of big time FA signing of pitchers and keep saying we need to sign a big name FA to compete.  Yet, they never do and some how keep competing.  Maybe, just maybe, counting on your players in the organization pays off.  Every year the Rays need to lean on young guys to compete, and yet they continue to compete.  

Also, you claim Twins made no contract offers to any of the pitchers signed.  That may be true, but we do not know for certain.  Maybe we did make some offers but were outbid.  Maybe they were not and only time will tell if the contracts signed work out for the teams, but in most cases anything beyond 3 years for a vet pitcher has a lot of dead money. 

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20 hours ago, Sconnie said:

I'm not sure you noticed, but there's a lockout that forbids any transactions involving MLB players. Let's see what happens post lockout and at the trade deadline

Sure, but they had that opportunity at the trade deadline and prior to the lockout.  They didn't take that course.  I agree that there is still time for that teardown to proceed, but it's probably unlikely at this point unless the lockout is resolved soon.  

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17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The difference is the "normal" timeframe associated with rebuilds.  5 years for a rebuild would generally be pretty good.  The Royals had 20 years of rebuilding before having a coupe good seasons before they went into rebuild mode again.  The plan it appears they are following would mean investing 1 year.  Obviously, they need to have some success establishing a couple SPs this year or they are in the same position as this year.  I assume you see a distinction between investing a year and going through a 5+ year rebuild, right?

How do we know if this is a one year investment, or two, or five?

If I look at the pitching staff as it is, Griffin Jax pitched 120 inning last year, Ober pitched 108, and nobody else broke 100 innings. This current group of 21 pitchers totaled 1300-ish innings last year and assuming a 14 man pitching staff at most would provide 1000 innings at last year's numbers, assuming 20% growth in innings for the starters and long relievers. A baseball season is 1500 innings so the plan as of today is for 1/3 of the 2022 innings to come from outside the organization, and a typical Michael Pineda type pitches 150 innings per year. That would make 20% of the innings to come from Quad A types in 2022.

Sano has a buy out after '22, Donaldson has 2 years left on his deal. This looks like a 2+ year "re-tool" to me, but who knows? I'm not in that board room with Falvey, St Peter and Pohlad.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Sure, but they had that opportunity at the trade deadline and prior to the lockout.  They didn't take that course.  I agree that there is still time for that teardown to proceed, but it's probably unlikely at this point unless the lockout is resolved soon.  

Agreed, and to further this line of thought, all the GMs may have been so keen on free agent negotiation, they may have mostly ignored trades for lack of bandwidth. If the lockout stretches into Spring Training or the season, we may not see many transactions.

To put some clarity on my opinion of where some of the delineation comes from. The rationale seems to be "well they didn't trade away everybody, so it was a retool". I just don't really buy-in to a real tangible difference at this point. If they don't offload salary for the sake of offloading salary, but they do trade away veteran players that return good prospects and plan to be bad next year, is that a retool or a rebuild?

Why does the name matter?

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22 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Continuing to say this over and over doesn't make it true, it has been shown over and over again the cupboard wasn't depleted.

And hasn't it been this FO that has been drafting power hitting tool only? Rooker, Larnach, Sabato, etc...

They have tended to draft power hitters with their first pick, but even that's not true every year. This year they drafted a power arm in Chase Petty in the first round, and they've also taken guys like Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Blayne Enlow later on.

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22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

 The plan it appears they are following would mean investing 1 year.  Obviously, they need to have some success establishing a couple SPs this year or they are in the same position as this year.  I assume you see a distinction between investing a year and going through a 5+ year rebuild, right?

"The Plan", not sure I see a plan. IMO we all seen what was happening last year, and most on here was begging to start the  establishing couple of SPs, they didn't unless they thought Ober, Jax, Barnes and Albers were possibly the future, it seems to me they started the retool last year trading away Berrios but forgot the second part getting pitchers up, unless of course bringing up Ryan for 5 starts count?

So IMO this is year 2, if things don't work out there will be a year 3, and maybe that is the plan to save money for hitting then?

Don't know, and that probably isn't a bad idea, I mean that is not what they have been saying for 5 years, but....

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