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Note to Falvine: Please DON'T Make a Trade This Offseason


2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Most of the talk here has been about SPs with 1-2 years of control.  I am sure we would all welcome another Maeda or Odorizzi deal.  The only way they are getting 3+ year players is to trade away multiple top prospects....

But the thing is, they didn't. To expand on my very brief post above, the cost for three years of Odorizzi was a 20-year-old who had just finished Low-A and, if I'm remembering correctly, wasn't among the Twins most highly regarded prospects at the time.

There's no guarantee they're going to get a return like that on every trade, but it goes against the assumption of most on this string who seem to be thinking that any level of quality is going to come at massive expense.

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Someone already mentioned Arraez as a great trade candidate, mainly because he would be worth more to another team as an everyday player than he is worth as a bench player on this team. It also opens a spot for Jose Miranda. Arraez is young and cheap but also an established big league player. 

The Twins should try to move Mitch Garver this offseason. He turns 31 in January. A contender would give up quite a bit for a productive hitting catcher like Garver who is on a $3M contract. Garver should get a chance to play his last couple productive seasons for a contender. The Giants, Braves and Rangers should all be interested and there are probably more teams since every team needs two catchers and his contract fits every team's budget.

The Twins should also be looking to trade Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers and Caleb Thielbar but those moves will probably happen closer to the trade deadline. Rogers is going to bring back a better return if he shows he's healthy. Duffey might look better if a contender only has to pay his salary for half the season.

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To trade or not to trade? That indeed is a question. The answer - depends on who and for what.  If we can get an established MLB starter AND extend his contract so we have him 3 years or more, we should  absolutely do it even if that pitcher is in his early 30s like Bassitt or Gray, IF we don't have to trade more than 2 "real" prospects. We have Martin, Lewis, Miranda and Larnach (Col. A). Probably isn't enough Room at the Inn for all 4. We have Donaldson, Arraez, Kepler, and Sano (Col. B). Probably is barely enough room for those 4.We have 8-10 "real" SP prospects depending on who's counting (Col. C).

The trade? One from Column A or C , and I would say that Winder, SVR, Balazovic, and Duran are off limits and I don't count Ober or Ryan in the "prospect" category any more and would absolutely not trade either one. Add in one or even 2 from Column B and that's what you have to trade. IF that will get you an MLB starter with at least 2-3 years of control (and, if 2, the real possibility of an extension), you make the deal. The one from column A or C changes depending on the return. IF you can't, you don't.    

My money is on the don't. Twins re-sign Pineda, roll with him at the front of the rotation and maybe sign Duffy, and see what happens.  I actually would make a trade for Gray or Bassitt (Montas and Lopez will be too expensive) because I think we can get them for the kind of package I outlined above or maybe that plus an A ball type. Prospects are just that; prospects. Most of them do not pan out. I predict though that we don't make a trade. 

 

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The Twins were bad last season because of a few bad pitchers....Dobnak, Happ, Shoemaker and Charlie Barnes and John Gant and of Course Colome.  but the starting pitchers listed above combined to go  10-29 and all of the blown saves from Colome.  THe other issue was injuries to a few key players like Buxton and Garver.    Simmons slumped badly as well.  

So i would imagine with better pitching and a healthy core lineup we will be good again.  

So trade.  I hear Odorizzi is available again.  That would be a nice 1 or2 year contract to have on the books.  What would we need to give up to get him....  Probably Rortvedt would do the trick.  I mean a solid defensive back up catcher on a minimum contract on a team needing to keep expenses low where they can....

Bassit is a great pick up if we extend him.  We could have a Berrios quality pitcher for the next 4 seasons at a cost of 60-65 million.  yes we should do this.

We also have some improving players coming up as well So we could go into next season with these 6 potential starters.  

Bassit

Odorizzi

Bundy

Dobnak

Ryan

Ober

We will need to get another reliever or 2 as well.  Do we sign any free agents or go the trade route there as well?

Also we need a SS.  Vilar or Story or Simmons..... any will do.

With these moves we should be an 85 win team with the potential to do more.... 

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2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Someone already mentioned Arraez as a great trade candidate, mainly because he would be worth more to another team as an everyday player than he is worth as a bench player on this team. It also opens a spot for Jose Miranda. Arraez is young and cheap but also an established big league player. 

The Twins should try to move Mitch Garver this offseason. He turns 31 in January. A contender would give up quite a bit for a productive hitting catcher like Garver who is on a $3M contract. Garver should get a chance to play his last couple productive seasons for a contender. The Giants, Braves and Rangers should all be interested and there are probably more teams since every team needs two catchers and his contract fits every team's budget.

The Twins should also be looking to trade Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers and Caleb Thielbar but those moves will probably happen closer to the trade deadline. Rogers is going to bring back a better return if he shows he's healthy. Duffey might look better if a contender only has to pay his salary for half the season.

This makes sense if you are talking about a complete rebuild for 2024-25 and in that case why not add Donaldson and Maeda to the list, because you can't trade all those guys for players that need to be on the 40 or most of the 40 will be minor league guys, so you will be trading them for really young guys that won't need to be on the 40 man for at least a year or maybe two or more (that is why the yanks traded Cave to the Twins, they got a guy with upside and won't require a 40 man spot for years). And if this FO is going to a complete rebuild, I am out on them and the Twins.

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16 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

To trade or not to trade? That indeed is a question. The answer - depends on who and for what.  If we can get an established MLB starter AND extend his contract so we have him 3 years or more, we should  absolutely do it even if that pitcher is in his early 30s like Bassitt or Gray, IF we don't have to trade more than 2 "real" prospects. We have Martin, Lewis, Miranda and Larnach (Col. A). Probably isn't enough Room at the Inn for all 4. We have Donaldson, Arraez, Kepler, and Sano (Col. B). Probably is barely enough room for those 4.We have 8-10 "real" SP prospects depending on who's counting (Col. C).

Is it possible to negotiate with a player prior to trading for him? If so, I would probably do the Bassitt trade as you listed.

If not no way I am giving up anybody in Col A or B (because no chance they take all of Donaldson's contract), and currently they don't really have a replacement for Kepler, they aren't swapping contracts for Sano, and Arraez should be able to bring back a better player/contract, so it would could down to the bottom half of Col C, and if the Twins aren't good again and have to trade him at the deadline, they probably couldn't get back equal value to what they traded for him.

So basically I am not trading for any pitcher with 1 year left of control, unless that pitcher comes along with somebody that has 3 or more.

Last year would have been the year to trade for a pitcher with one year of control to go along with Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak, probably won't have worked but I wouldn't have been upset if we lost a prospect because they attempted to shore up the pitching staff with a lineup seemingly ready to win.

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Someone should put up a poll. It sure seems like many of the comments oppose a trade of top twenty prospects, especially if the return is for less than three years. No free agent signings unless players like Bundy. No trades for good pitchers due to cost. Are the Twins backed into a corner with a dozen prospects who many want to see? Last season, many of these prospects were injured and are unlikely to throw many innings. Only one is ranked in MLB Pipeline's Top 100, Balazovic at #81. The bulk of the prospects are seen nationally as good mid to back of the rotation starting pitchers potentially or ultimately relievers. Where are Romero, Thorpe, Jay, and other missing top five Twins starting pitching prospects from the last half dozen years? A 40 person crunch will come next season, made worse if the Twins trade a pile of their current more expensive players. Some have mentioned Tampa Bay, but we do not have their team of management nor their deep roster and the Rays need to operate in the manner they do because they have pathetic support. The Twins have better financial resources to use. $110-130 million should be a reasonable budget. We can hope, but without some changes in early 2022 the season may be really rough. 

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I see no way the Twins are competitive for 2022. They might be better than 2-3 other teams in their division, but that is only if every one steps it up a notch.

 

The Twins need roster space to send players up and down, piggyback back-end rotation arms, iof need be.

 

They can do what they do best, a low end starter or two who might have some trade value. The Twins were lucky with Happ, getting rid of the salary, but they basically placed him with a non-keeper and a possible prospect. But no one bit on Pineda, which will say alot about his market this off-season.

 

The Twins can steal deal from strength. Donaldson is a contract to jettison. Maybe you trade him and cash for Elvis Andrus. But then you need to put trust in Miranda for fulltime at third. Or keep Luis Arraez.

 

Arraex is probably his most valuable right now, especially if he becomes a utility guy in 2022. Of course, you could but him at second and move Polanco to short, and trust Miranda at third.

 

Sano could be had, if any other team believes in the guy. Doomed to be the Twins DH, a position that could also be filled by, say, Garver on the cheap. But then you are banking on Kirilloff being a fulltime first baseman. No Sano, Kirilloff goes down...who's on first.

 

If truly retooling, don't need a real closer, but with a bunch of four inning starters you need a couple of bullpen arms that can get thru a lineup. Or you can run the shuttle bigtime between St. Paul and also jettison some of the expensive worth like Rogers or Duffey.

 

But in any trade, what are you getting back. A Berrios clone you can sign for 5-7 years. Someone who can go at least 3 years for your team with possible trade value if the youngsters come thru? 

 

You don't want to trade prospects, but you also can't keep them all. There are at least a dozen rotation arms the Twins need to shuffle thru the majors in the next two seasons. That is too many. Some have to have worth and can be labeled "top prospect."

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None of us have an real idea what the "plan" the FO has in store for 2022. I mean, just in theory, the Twins could come out of the lockup with a plan to sign Rodon for 1yr, or a 1+1 with a buyout. It could be $18-20M with a 2nd yr bump and a $4-5M buyout. I'm just talking logical theory here for a potential arm that COULD make a difference but was left out of the FA frenzy that the Twins sat out of. THEN, you could just grab Pineda to flesh out your rotation, OR, make ONE nice trade for someone even better to help lead your rotation.

And you STILL have so many IP and GS to work in all the young pitchers to build for 2023 and beyond. With the lineup in place and a quality pen, you might even compete for a playoff spot. It's not that far fetched of an idea. And you still haven't committed any long term financial obligations or blocked the future.

Again, this is just a theoretical idea that leads to competence and a competitive team for 2022.

But unless the FO can pull a PAIR of rabbit out of the hat trade options for 2022 that doesn't raid the ML roster or the milb prospect pipeline, they have already missed opportunity in the FA market that would have cost $ without disrupting the organization as a whole.

It makes ZERO sense for building a sustainable organization to pass on FA possibilities and then turn around and trade multiple players in an effort to re-tool for 2022.

Either circle the wagons and make a couple aggressive moves left available to you to compete that might pay off and keep most of what you have on hand...OR... just admit you blew it or explain your plan for the future and grab a couple mediocre SP options and be aggressive with your prospects and tell us that was your plan all along to build for the future and your being "competitive" for 2022 was hopes and prayers for surprises and developmental promotions with a good lineup and strong pen.

But for goodness sake, don't blow FA and then trade away depth and assets for a couple 1 and 2yr assets in the rotation and deplete what you have for the future.

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The Twins have, like,  12-13 pitching prospects who have the potential to be productive major leaguers.   What is the realistic percentage of them that will ?  The A's have SP's like Montas and Bassitt who are GOOD and they're willing to trade them. I like prospects as much as the next guy, and our FO has certainly provided a list of pitching prospects deeper than I can remember as a Twins fan (and I go back to the 60's as a Twins fan) but they will never have roster space for all of them and all of them won't "make it."  When the FO trades their #1 SP (for a nice return) and their #2 needs Tommy John surgery and will miss 2022, AND because of Covid and a rash of injuries, the pitching prospects are 1-2 years behind in their developmental schedule, AND your team was good enough to win two consecutive division titles in 2019 & 2020 (so you still have enough talent in your lineup to compete) as a FO you need to earn what the Pohlad's are paying you.  If pitchers like Montas and Bassitt are acquired, it's NOT just for 2022.  There should be a plan to retain them for 2023 and beyond.  Imagine adding Maeda to those two and then being able to cherry pick from Ryan, Ober, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Winder, Duran, Canterino and a host of others who would fill out your pitching staff.  One or two of the guys listed may have been moved to make this a possibility but my point is that the Twins should be building with "quality" by dealing from the "depth" of prospects they have.  Guys like Montas or Bassitt or Pablo Lopez or Max Meyer or Sixto Sanchez should not just be 1-2 year acquisitions.  The plan should be to improve and contend for 2022 and BEYOND.  I know 2021 was a tough year (just ask Joe Biden).  Everything that could have gone wrong...DID.  But even with Cruz and Berrios playing elsewhere, the Twins  DO  still have talent.   They play in the A.L. Central.  That's not the N.L. West where 106 wins leaves you in 2nd place.  Trade to be better and to contend in 2022 and BEYOND.  

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1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Guys like Montas or Bassitt or Pablo Lopez or Max Meyer or Sixto Sanchez should not just be 1-2 year acquisitions. 

Montas is controlled though 2023 (that is two years) , Pablo Lopez though 2024, Sixto Sanchez though 2026, Max Meyer though whenever since he hasn't pitched in the majors.

So those wouldn't be considered 1 year, but Bassitt is a free agent after next year, which means one year, and if the Twins aren't competing it actually would be a half year, since they would trade him at the deadline. Luis Castillo like Montas is controlled though 2023, but if you can't get him to extend he would probably be traded at the next deadline as well, because he would have move value then the next year deadline.

I am not giving up one of the top pitching prospects for 1 year of anybody, for two years I would be will to move a Duran or Canterino, plus a position player or two.

 

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When you find yourself stressed about the Twins possibly trading  two of their top starting pitching prospects just insert a few names to help you relax. Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Jay, Fernando Romero, & Edwar Colina. Does that help?

Now the names thrown out to be received in trade, Bassitt, Montas, etc., could also tank horribly but are experienced talented pitchers. There is always risk. The Twins need pitchers and it is down to a very risky Rodon or Greinke (he is not interested) and trades.

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I am sorry to say, that I agree that the Twins should not trade their future to help them only improve a bad team for one year to become a fair, or maybe good team, but a real playoff team. The long team does look promising with the prospects that they have, but 2022 is the short term.

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I think we also need to look at how many of our prospects we are going to need to add to the 40 man roster next year.  I really don't know, but I'm thinking there will be several.  I think that trading a few prospects to be able to compete this year and in the future may be advisable.  Maybe someone more knowledgeable about future prospects could weigh in on this.  How about it Seth?

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The real problem is that our lineup and our pitching staff aren't on the same cycle. The lineup is good enough to to compete now and could be really good if Larnach, Miranda, Martin or Contreras steps up to be a competent or better hitter next year. The pitching that we have is at least a year or two away from what is needed by a competitive team.  That lack of synchronicity is the root problem.

So like many here, I think the answer is to decide which way you want to go. If you want to compete NOW, you have to either (1) sign Rondon and Pineda at a minimum AND add to the bullpen or (2) trade for at least 2 established starters or one plus a real prospect and sign Pineda. Option number 1 means trading real pitching or hitting prospects, probably pitching ones. Option 2 is to decide to rebuild or re-tool for a year or two and see what your existing pitching prospects can do. If you do that, there's no real reason to keep Donaldson or Garver because of age, and maybe the same for Sano and Kepler although less so, Those guys are all available for trade, and you would consider trading Arraez for the right return. All trades are of veteran players with a A ball lottery types and concentrating on getting a younger, controllable player at SS or or for pitching. The worst strategy is number 3 - just run the lineup back and "hope" that the young pitching can step up this year or next and fill all of those holes. Very unlikely.

Frankly, I could get behind either strategy 1 - compete now and take the risk of trading away prospects who become stars for other teams, or 2 - 2022 as a re-tool/rebuild year, 2023 as maybe the same or starting to compete with the "window" being 2024 and beyond. I just can't stomach option 3, which is frankly just more of the same thing that didn't work in 2021.     

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On 12/23/2021 at 8:17 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

The Twins have, like,  12-13 pitching prospects who have the potential to be productive major leaguers.   What is the realistic percentage of them that will ?  

25-30% - if you assume the Twins are about as good as anyone else at developing pitching. Pitching prospects flame out all the time.

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20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

25-30% - if you assume the Twins are about as good as anyone else at developing pitching. Pitching prospects flame out all the time.

If they added 4 arms over even the next year and a half and a couple of them were legit #2-3 we would be in very good shape for the next 6-8 years.  Trade away the wrong two like we did with Ynoa and Gil and  the equation changes substantially.  The problem is that we could pick the prospects among them most likely to succeed and so can the teams trading away established pitchers.  They are not trading those established pitchers unless it's for the most likely to succeed among our prospects.  Getting Two good established pitchers would likely cost four of our top six pitching prospects.    

If we established 4 prospects in addition to Ryan and Ober there would be no need to add any pitching via free agency other than a top of the rotation guy for the next several years.  They are talking this approach because the payoff is a 6+ year window.  The alternative is two years with a modest shot at contending.  The Padres who had the best farm system in baseball used that depth to trade for 3 starting pitchers.  They won 79 games.  We heard the same endorsements of trading for Snell and Darvish.  Those two surely do not look like reliable difference makers and the Padres are stuck with this strategy because neither pitcher is worth more than their salary at this point.  Darvish was replacement level for the entire 2nd half.  They traded away 10 prospects on this bet.  Maybe we should sign Musgrove as a FA next year!

If they build an entire staff from within, they would have about $60M (post Donaldson) to spend on a top of the rotation guy and a SS.  If Lewis turns out to be our SS, they would have another $30M to fill holes.  That's how you follow the Tampa / Oakland model but also take advantage of our added financial resources.  Oakland has the best record of below average revenue teams and the most 90 win seasons over the past 20 years because they trade 2 year assets for 6 year assets so why should we do the opposite?

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