Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

If the Twins want to trade Josh Donaldson, where does he go?


John Bonnes
 Share

I was convinced the Twins would trade Josh Donaldson this offseason, and now I'm just as convinced they will not.* Still, I followed the Kris Bryan rumors closely to see some possible landing spots. Bryan didn't sign before the lockout, but as of 12/1, all of these teams were rumored to be chasing him: Mets, Angels, Padres, Rockies, Mariners, Phillies, Astros.

My question is: do any of these float your boat? For instance, do we see a trade partner that might return an overpriced pitcher in return, sort of balancing out the contract concerns each team might have?

The good news is that once Bryant signs, the 3B pretty much dries up. Escobar already signed, and Seager (who some thought might be moving there) also signed. If the Twins want to unload that contract, it seems like this would be a good time. (And them maybe nab Trevor Story?)

*I thought before the Twins would try to move JD to free up salary to chase a top flight pitcher. Now I wonder if they can really spend the money they (should) have to spend. That's what's changed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recommended Posts

A team wanting Josh would need to be in dire need of an aging expensive third base guy who they see as helping them to compete and go all-the-way in the next two seasons. Otherwise, no need to absord that contract. 

The Twins, if not paying money out, would be lucky to get a couple of mid-level prospects or, at best, someone passed over in the Rule 5 that would still need to be protected come next season, along with a low level prospect.

 

There is the chance that some backend rotation or bullpen arm with a hefty contract could be part of a deal, but I would think few of those would be on the roster at the moment.

 

The Twins best chance is to see who is still looking after Bryant signs, or go into spring training with the hopes that someone needs an immediate replacement on the Donaldson levelk when camp breaks, and that Miranda is hot enough in his spring at bats that you feel you can live with him at the hot corner. Of course, we could always play Arraex there, return Sano to that bag, or whatever.

 

Donaldson does bring quality, at a price. And someone should take him off he Twins hands if they feel they have an extensive weakness at that bag. Of course, there are other temas that could also have third basemen available at a lower cost, which would then demand that the Twins eat some of the contract.

 

Can't wait to see what the Twins still think or feel they need to spend in free agency to excite the local market and keep us from bemoaning that they are cheapskates again and again and again. Except they did spring for Donaldson!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Twins may have to eat $10-15m of his salary to move him. Maybe move Kirilloff to lf, move Donaldson to 1b, move San’o to DH.  San’o is a FA this fall. The trade dead-line (if there is one) may create a better market for Donaldson. If the National League goes with DH may help create a better market for both Donaldson & San’o.  We can hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IDK if they trade Donaldson this off season. I kinda hope they don't, He could be valuable in Miranda's development. But at the deadline if Donaldson is healthy, which I think he should be, he could be valuable in a trade for someone looking for a veteran 3B. A Price/ Donaldson trade even up with LA would be a OK if we're still in contention. Unless they drastically reduce the budget, Donaldson shouldn't be a problem

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am convinced the Twins do not plan on trading JD in this offseason. Otherwise they would have called up Miranda in September. [I have high hopes for Miranda but to me it's not worth manipulating service time. If he pans out, sign him to an extension of sorts.]

I would add the Blue Jays to the list of possible trade partners. Toronto fns love JD and he makes sense now that their contention window is open. I figure the Twins would have to eat almost $18M on JD's remaining contract and then they would only get a couple of guys from their 20-30.

I don't see that happening, nor do I see them turning that savings into a long-term contract (like the 5-year commitment they made to JD).

Here's hoping JD stays healthy and his production matches this year's xOBA,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I still think trying to trade Donaldson to the Yankees for one of their top shortstop prospects would be good. Their #3 prospect Peraza would be good.

The Yankees are looking at shortstop this year also but their #1 prospect is also a shortstop. But I would have thought they would pick up one of the expensive ones. However they don't have much at third base either and they always seem to be in a position to go for it. So they may be willing to eat another big contract.

Normally I wouldn't consider trading with the Yankees, but thus could actually be a win for the Twins.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Mets are playing with house money and might just take on Donaldson’s contract, no return to Twins.

The Padres at projected $199m opening day payroll would make sense from a payroll standpoint, but don’t really have any pitchers they’d probably want to offload, maybe Snell’s $13m… but probably not. Twins would have to eat salary and provide prospect pieces to make that work.

I’d love to try to pry Marquez away from the Rockies… big prospect haul from the Twins to balance on that one!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ve been quite vocal on TD about moving Josh this off-season. The primary reasons being: 

1) He’s a declining asset.

2) He’s blocking our most show ready prospect.

3) This team is not likely to be “one or two players away”. Signing guys like Josh for a mid market team like the Twins are for an “open window” - which we are not currently.

4) The value per $ spent (this year and in future years) can be better utilized/applied elsewhere (i.e. mid- long term SS solution, starters, or bullpen).

5) His strongish second half increased his perceived trade value on which the FO should be able to capitalize.

6) If the universal DH is part of the new agreement, his value will continue to rise (this is possibly why, btw, he hasn’t been moved already this offseason).

Having said all that, if we pass on a FA SS and a mid-upper tier starter or two (both of which seem likely now), I could see the FO keeping JD up until the deadline to a) help Miranda get MLB ready (as a TDer smartly suggested above in a previous post) and b) see how the first half shakes out (one never knows, right?).
 

But if a compelling offer for all or just about all of his remaining contract is made, I’d still hit the bid.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's hard to see any team taking Donaldson unless (a) the Twins take a lot of his salary back and only get a middling prospect, or (b) the Twins take an overpriced player they want to get rid of. The first scenario makes no sense to me. He's more valuable here for the next season and could be traded at the deadline for that same or even better return. 

The second scenario is more interesting but I only see one partner - the Dodgers. Trade Donaldson for Price plus a lower level prospect with upside. Both teams get something they need and the salaries basically balance out. The Twins take more risk so we get the prospect. Otherwise, better to have him in the lineup batting 4 or 5 behind Arraez, Polanco, Buxton and may be Kirilloff.  Plenty of time to get Miranda in the lineup (some at 3B and maybe in LF?) and we can trade Donaldson at the deadline if Miranda takes off. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

It's hard to see any team taking Donaldson unless (a) the Twins take a lot of his salary back and only get a middling prospect, or (b) the Twins take an overpriced player they want to get rid of. The first scenario makes no sense to me. He's more valuable here for the next season and could be traded at the deadline for that same or even better return. 

The second scenario is more interesting but I only see one partner - the Dodgers. Trade Donaldson for Price plus a lower level prospect with upside. Both teams get something they need and the salaries basically balance out. The Twins take more risk so we get the prospect. Otherwise, better to have him in the lineup batting 4 or 5 behind Arraez, Polanco, Buxton and may be Kirilloff.  Plenty of time to get Miranda in the lineup (some at 3B and maybe in LF?) and we can trade Donaldson at the deadline if Miranda takes off. 

I agree I don't see a deal getting done in the offseason.  The way things look right now the Twins kind of need his bat in the lineup.  Granted if they don't do anything to help the rotation then it is likely a moot point anyway.  Given what happened to Larnach and Kirilloff last year I don't know that I want to completely trust Miranda there to start the season but if they are going with a youth movement then one more isn't going to hurt.

Still if Donaldson has a good start to the season he could be a good trade chip at the deadline and if the Twins are in it then I am sure they would love to keep his bat in the lineup.  I just don't see a deal where the Twins feel it makes sense to unload him at this time.  By midseason there will be less money left on his deal and a team that needs him would be more willing to overpay.  At least that is the way I see it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/11/2021 at 3:18 PM, Old fox said:

The Twins may have to eat $10-15m of his salary to move him. Maybe move Kirilloff to lf, move Donaldson to 1b, move San’o to DH.  San’o is a FA this fall. The trade dead-line (if there is one) may create a better market for Donaldson. If the National League goes with DH may help create a better market for both Donaldson & San’o.  We can hope.

If they have to eat that amount of money, they would have paid him between 37 and 42 million for 163 games, that is a savory front office to make a deal like that.

The Twins signed him because they thought the window was open. quite a few people believe that window is now closed, so they should trade Donaldson. Doesn't that say quite a bit about the FO? They went to the owner and explained why signing Donaldson was a good idea and why trading away one of their best pitching prospects away and taking on salary was a good idea. Now they go to the owner and say opps, Covid, we need to rebuild and you know that contract for Josh Donaldson we convinced you to sign, yea we are going to have to eat quite a bit of that money and um the player(s) we are getting back are just fill ins for the minor leagues.

But no worries we aren't going to spend anymore of your money, until the pitching prospects work out, which should be 2022, probably more like 2023, but for sure by 2024, and if for some reason we are wrong again, we have quite a few players we can trade to reload the minor leagues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd be hesitant to trade him, but it always depends on the offer and salary considerations.  It's always difficult to trade a negative asset because you always have to take back someone else's negative trade asset.  The universal DH will change this scenario but here are a couple teams that I do NOT see Donaldson going to unless there IS a universal DH.

Padres:  They already have Machado at 3B.  JD could be their DH with some 3B/1B flexibility.

Yankees:  They already have Gio Urshela and DJ LeMahieau.  They need a SS.  And DH doesn't work for the Yanks either--they have Stanton.

Dodgers:  They have Justin Turner (or at least they WILL once they resign him).  And Turner would also get a LOT of DH AB's as well.  Edwin Rios is waiting in the wings.  

The Mets could be a fit, but they have JD Davis and Jeff McNeil so if the Mets took him, DH, 3B and 1B is his fit just like the Padres.

I think a negative asset like Donaldson is worth more to keep than to deal.  And we aren't really under any kind of NEED to deal him for salary relief since we haven't spent any significant amount of money yet this off season.  Unless the FO goes out and signs Rodon or Story I think there is no need to trade Donaldson.  Even if we DID sign Rodon or Story, I think we need to keep JD because theoretically, the FO would be indicating that they believe we should be competitive in 2022.  It's a conundrum !!  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think if the NL implements the DH JD will have a lot more suitors. I think our best bet is to trade him to either the Phillies or Mariners. I would guess the Phillies would use him at DH a bunch but if Bohm continues to struggle he could take his spot at 3B. For the Mariners it depends on if they bring back Seager or sign another option like Bryant. The Mets may work since Cohen is spending like crazy but hard to say for sure. 

I would probably hold him until the trade deadline and trade him then if the team is underperforming again for 2022. He can still help the team win this year if they are competitive. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/11/2021 at 11:40 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Mets make a lot of sense because it appears Cohen is playing with Monopoly money right now. 

Gotta be worth picking up to ole rotary phone and placing the call...just don't call during peak long distance hours.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If they have to eat that amount of money, they would have paid him between 37 and 42 million for 163 games, that is a savory front office to make a deal like that.

The Twins signed him because they thought the window was open. quite a few people believe that window is now closed, so they should trade Donaldson. Doesn't that say quite a bit about the FO? They went to the owner and explained why signing Donaldson was a good idea and why trading away one of their best pitching prospects away and taking on salary was a good idea. Now they go to the owner and say opps, Covid, we need to rebuild and you know that contract for Josh Donaldson we convinced you to sign, yea we are going to have to eat quite a bit of that money and um the player(s) we are getting back are just fill ins for the minor leagues.

But no worries we aren't going to spend anymore of your money, until the pitching prospects work out, which should be 2022, probably more like 2023, but for sure by 2024, and if for some reason we are wrong again, we have quite a few players we can trade to reload the minor leagues.

quite umami!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The best play in my opinion is to just keep him. There's no chance anyone is taking on the remaining $ on his deal, Twins would have to eat a good amount.

He's really been pretty good offensively and if he can stay healthy for 1st half of the season, I could see some team talking themselves into taking on most of that contract.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 teams that I could see him going to are the White Sox and Rangers. White Sox could rotate 3B/2B/DH with Moncada, Vaughn, and Donaldson. Texas just spent a ton of money, so why not finish off their infield? Can't see him going to an NL team. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What about the Brewers as a possible destination?  The Twins have long neglected involving more than a single team in trades.  They also need to be proactive in identifying WHO THEY WANT TO ACQUIRE and then going about finding a way to make that happen as opposed to just sitting back and waiting to see who offers what for what they have got.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Twins should trade Donaldson AND pay ALL of his salary in exchange for the best pitching they can get.  While they're at it, they should take on several short-term but overpriced SP contracts from any team who is also willing to throw in an excellent young pitching prospect as part of the deal.  Become a salary dumping ground for one or two years.

Nothing else to spend their money on.  And it's a weird enough strategy that it might just work.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

On 12/13/2021 at 4:53 PM, cmoss84 said:

2 teams that I could see him going to are the White Sox and Rangers. White Sox could rotate 3B/2B/DH with Moncada, Vaughn, and Donaldson. Texas just spent a ton of money, so why not finish off their infield? Can't see him going to an NL team. 

Please not…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Einheri said:

Twins should trade Donaldson AND pay ALL of his salary in exchange for the best pitching they can get.  While they're at it, they should take on several short-term but overpriced SP contracts from any team who is also willing to throw in an excellent young pitching prospect as part of the deal.  Become a salary dumping ground for one or two years.

Nothing else to spend their money on.  And it's a weird enough strategy that it might just work.  

Pohlad's calling: You are hired to run our baseball investment. You clearly are forward looking and have a keen eye for investment possibilities. Name your salary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Einheri said:

Twins should trade Donaldson AND pay ALL of his salary in exchange for the best pitching they can get.  While they're at it, they should take on several short-term but overpriced SP contracts from any team who is also willing to throw in an excellent young pitching prospect as part of the deal.  Become a salary dumping ground for one or two years.

Nothing else to spend their money on.  And it's a weird enough strategy that it might just work.  

42 million dollars for the best pitching you can get?

Seems like a winning strategy, Maybe they should offer Kershaw a two year 50 million, then turn around and trade him for pitching prospects?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premiere Twins community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...