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FO's tentativeness is killing the team


Twinfan603
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We knew a few days ago that the FA market was hotter than expected despite a looming lockout, and more pitchers continue to come off the board. DeScalafani signed 3/36, Alex Wood signed ~2/20+, Matz is going to sign in the next couple days and the Twins aren't even in on him, and there are rumors Stroman might sign before Thanksgiving too (and the Twins are nowhere to be found in these rumors). The team has no shot at the upper echelon guys like Scherzer, Kershaw, and Gausman, and Robbie Ray seems likely to stay in Toronto. Things are already looking bleak as the market empties and the team has yet to even seriously be connected to any major FA pitcher.

They better have one hell of a trade for a starter coming, otherwise this offseason is gonna be ugly in retrospect.

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I'm in the same boat as the OP but also, let's see how this plays out before crucifying the front office. I'm super-down on them (like to the point where I'm actually starting to be convinced they need to go) but making a decision when we're only 20% of the way through the offseason isn't really fair to them, either.

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5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm in the same boat as the OP but also, let's see how this plays out before crucifying the front office. I'm super-down on them (like to the point where I'm actually starting to be convinced they need to go) but making a decision when we're only 20% of the way through the offseason isn't really fair to them, either.

Your tentativeness is killing the outraged mob.

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8 hours ago, Twinfan603 said:

We knew a few days ago that the FA market was hotter than expected despite a looming lockout, and more pitchers continue to come off the board. DeScalafani signed 3/36, Alex Wood signed ~2/20+, Matz is going to sign in the next couple days and the Twins aren't even in on him, and there are rumors Stroman might sign before Thanksgiving too (and the Twins are nowhere to be found in these rumors). The team has no shot at the upper echelon guys like Scherzer, Kershaw, and Gausman, and Robbie Ray seems likely to stay in Toronto. Things are already looking bleak as the market empties and the team has yet to even seriously be connected to any major FA pitcher.

They better have one hell of a trade for a starter coming, otherwise this offseason is gonna be ugly in retrospect.

Twins are most interested, IMO, in what goes on with Buxton. My guess is we are exploring a trade and full rebuild. Sad to say, but that is likely the truth.

That or they are exploring the trade market for starters, I prefer this to signing guys washed up or pitchers over 30-32 years old. 

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Not having made moves yet doesn't necessarily bother me, but the utter silence and apparent lack of interest in anyone is very worrisome. I've understood the vast majority of their moves over the last few years, but I'm not seeing any plan here and that's concerning. If they really are waiting for the Buxton situation to be solved before making other moves they need to be on a plane to Georgia (assuming that's where Buck is right now) and hammer it out. Either he's going to sign or he isn't. Here's our best offer, take it or leave it. Then go about your business. Don't need to trade him immediately, but they should already have multiple plans in place in case he signed and even more in place if he rejects their offer.

No rumors that the Twins are in on anyone plus the quote last week on The Athletic that they're still "navigating" their plan and trying to figure out what their options are has me dipping my toes into the "Falvine must go" pool. How did they not have a handful of routes to take with a Buxton extension in place and a handful to take with him rejecting their deal? How was there not a call to his agent during the WS? Maybe there have been talks, but they need to have an idea of where they're at by now and be in the process of executing some plans. Unacceptable to still be trying to figure things out.

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18 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Twins are most interested, IMO, in what goes on with Buxton. My guess is we are exploring a trade and full rebuild. Sad to say, but that is likely the truth.

If this front office needs to enter a rebuild phase in year five of their tenure, someone else can handle that rebuild. Falvey and Levine should be fired if that's their strategy.

If those two want to run a franchise like they're in Cleveland, fine, go somewhere else and do it.

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36 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If this front office needs to enter a rebuild phase in year five of their tenure, someone else can handle that rebuild. Falvey and Levine should be fired if that's their strategy.

If those two want to run a franchise like they're in Cleveland, fine, go somewhere else and do it.

My prediction: The front office and ownership are going to pull this club in two different directions and set the club back a half decade. Falvey will start the rebuild by trading away Rodgers, Polanco and Kepler and sit out meaningful free agency, but while they wait for top dollar for Buxton, ownership will be taking so much heat that they'll step in and force the front office to extend him in February, leaving the Twins with one good player standing in the burning rubble that was once a decent roster.

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It appears a couple of these guys (DeScalfini and Wood) went back to their old team to avoid getting lost in the shuffle after the lockout is over. There are still several mid-tier FAs available and most probably won’t find new teams until the new CBA kicks in. Which puts them at risk of having to take a reduced rate to play next year. 

The top tier guys are going to make their money regardless, so they can afford to wait until the dust settles after the CBA is finalized. Others, like Pineda, may have trouble finding a new home when teams have to scramble and sign players in a short amount of time. 

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I must be in the minority. I'm just not worried yet at all.

Frankly, I'm not sure they can build a pitching staff this off season at all, so maybe that's it. 

Also, if mid market teams really go in cycles, I guess I just see a short down slide the next year or so, then back up again. Maybe it is just that my expectations are much different than some of you. 

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9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I must be in the minority. I'm just not worried yet at all.

Frankly, I'm not sure they can build a pitching staff this off season at all, so maybe that's it. 

Also, if mid market teams really go in cycles, I guess I just see a short down slide the next year or so, then back up again. Maybe it is just that my expectations are much different than some of you. 

I’m not worried yet either. I see this winter playing out very similarly to 2018. Except this time there’s a reason for the sport grinding to a halt. 

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I don't expect the Twins to be big players in the free agent market this year, and frankly, I don't think they should be. Next season is going to be a tryout camp, so no need to fork over $25 million to Verlander. Their number one need is good, controllable, young pitching, and that is more likely to come via trade. (Or signing young pitchers you already have/had, like Berrios, but there's already ten other message boards on that particular subject.)

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1 minute ago, TwinsFan2005 said:

I think rotation-wise we sign Pineda, a lower tier guy like Jordan Lyles, Yusei Kikuchi, or Dylan Buddy then make a trade

Yup. I hold out hope that maybe someone like Gausman, Ray, or Stroman is available for a reasonable price once the dust settles from the labor dispute, but I think that's extremely unlikely.

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It's not killing the Twins, it's choosing their path for them. The paths at this point are big trades or full rebuild. I'm leaning towards full rebuild. The correct way to start a rebuild is to make moves boldly and quickly. The worst way is to hang on to lingering assets, and be indecisive because once you've started down the path, you've already burned the bridge behind you.

Personally, I find the lack of direction or planning to be the absolute worst indictment against Falvey. It's his show and he should know what the plan is or what the plan becomes if scenario x or scenario y doesn't work out. Falvey not having a clear plan for the Twins has been talked about since the trade deadline and it seems those criticisms were correct and still are today. I'm not sure how many days, weeks or months it takes him to form a general plan, but it's certainly less than 4. If the GM can't form a new plan in 4 months, it suggests they might not have the decision making skills necessary for the position.

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1 hour ago, iremember91 said:

Most of the 15 somewhat acceptable pitchers available in the 12 to 15 million annually are gone already.  I just don't get this approach?  Is word out there to stay away from the organization? 

 

 
From a chat with Steve Adams on MLBTradeRumors.com https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-11-23-21-11913.html
 
"Falvine
2:41
Mid level SPs are dropping like flies. Is Michael Pineda realistically our top FA SP acquisition?
 
Steve Adams
2:41
Even if the Twins don't want to spend heavily on a multi-year deal for a free agent SP, the trade market will offer plenty of names. John Means, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, several Marlins options ... lots of ways to fill out a rotation.
 
2:42
That said, no, I don't think Pineda is the top SP Minnesota will consider.
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3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I must be in the minority. I'm just not worried yet at all.

Frankly, I'm not sure they can build a pitching staff this off season at all, so maybe that's it. 

Also, if mid market teams really go in cycles, I guess I just see a short down slide the next year or so, then back up again. Maybe it is just that my expectations are much different than some of you. 

I'm in a similar boat.  I'm not really concerned yet mainly because it's November and I think the CBA flubs up things for a lot of clubs.  I also think that much of their intentions revolve around Buxton.  Once that's decided, one way or another, I would expect things to pick up.

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3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

I don't expect the Twins to be big players in the free agent market this year, and frankly, I don't think they should be. Next season is going to be a tryout camp, so no need to fork over $25 million to Verlander. Their number one need is good, controllable, young pitching, and that is more likely to come via trade. (Or signing young pitchers you already have/had, like Berrios, but there's already ten other message boards on that particular subject.)

Not sure next year is the year to go after FA pitchers.

Chris Bassitt, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Carrasco (club option), Mike Clevinger, Jacob deGrom (opt-out), Zach Eflin, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Flexen (club option), Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray (club option), Andrew Heaney, Dallas Keuchel (club option), Sean Manaea, Wade Miley, Mike Minor (club option), Charlie Morton (club option), Joe Musgrove, Aaron Nola (club option), Jake Odorizzi (player option), David Price, Chris Sale (opt-out), Luis Severino (club option), Ross Stripling, Noah Syndergaard, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker (player option)

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28 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

I'm in a similar boat.  I'm not really concerned yet mainly because it's November and I think the CBA flubs up things for a lot of clubs.  I also think that much of their intentions revolve around Buxton.  Once that's decided, one way or another, I would expect things to pick up.

What do you mean by "decided?" I'm generally in the same boat, but I am starting to be concerned that Falvey is quoted as saying they're still navigating their plans and figuring out what their options are and they seem to not be making a push for anyone yet. I agree Buxton is priority #1, but how long can they sit and wait on him? What if he doesn't sign until ST? Plenty of extensions don't get done until then. While he's priority #1 I don't think it's wise to sit out the offseason until he's either signed or they decide he won't sign a deal. If their plans are so drastically different based on extending him or not that they can't, or won't, make any other moves until he's dealt with then they should be sitting down with Pohlad today and Buxton tomorrow and getting it solved. Waiting on Buxton can't shutdown operations for a month. I'm not jumping ship yet on the FO, but I'm getting my floaties out.

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13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What do you mean by "decided?" I'm generally in the same boat, but I am starting to be concerned that Falvey is quoted as saying they're still navigating their plans and figuring out what their options are and they seem to not be making a push for anyone yet. I agree Buxton is priority #1, but how long can they sit and wait on him? What if he doesn't sign until ST? Plenty of extensions don't get done until then. While he's priority #1 I don't think it's wise to sit out the offseason until he's either signed or they decide he won't sign a deal. If their plans are so drastically different based on extending him or not that they can't, or won't, make any other moves until he's dealt with then they should be sitting down with Pohlad today and Buxton tomorrow and getting it solved. Waiting on Buxton can't shutdown operations for a month. I'm not jumping ship yet on the FO, but I'm getting my floaties out.

Decided = settled.  Could be that he signs, could be that they don't believe that they can and they move on.  And I don't expect anything to happen before spring training.  But I think they'll have a notion on whether they think they'll sign him one way or another before that.  I'm in the boat that says that if he doesn't sign, they're rebuilding anyway.

I wish they'd just sit down with all parties tomorrow and start hammering things out.  I think he's that important.  

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5 hours ago, iremember91 said:

Most of the 15 somewhat acceptable pitchers available in the 12 to 15 million annually are gone already.  I just don't get this approach?  Is word out there to stay away from the organization? 

 

I don't think players are ruling out the Twins as a landing spot - I have little doubt that pitchers would sign with the Twins if they were the highest bidder. But we have reports that the Twins have not been interested in most of the starters who have signed so far and this FO typically does not bid high on these guys when they do make offers. With those two factors in mind, they don't seem likely to be landing any of the mid-to-high end starters out there.

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