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ROSENTHAL: Byron Buxton Trade “Likely”


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8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

when he exceed these expectations you pay accordingly. If he maxs out his expectations you get him for around $100M and that's a bargain. How can you be worried about what it costs us if he's winning MVP and put us in a situations to win games.

Same with player opt-outs. If a player is exceeding his contract by so much that he wants to exercise an opt out that he has, how is that a bad thing? But, we don't offer player options in Twins Territory. 

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18 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Every player falls apart eventually. And good players often fall apart while they're still under a good contract -- that's just how the system generally works, and teams simply try to position themselves so those "fall apart" seasons/ages don't happen until closer to the end of the contract.

Lorenzo Cain and Charlie Blackmon started their currents contracts the season they turned 32 years old, and they still performed well for at least a season or two beyond that. Buxton is still only 27 years old, so he has 5 more full seasons until he turns 33.

Yes, they were older. They also had generally decent health and continue to, at least compared to Buxton. 
I wanted(ed) the Twins to sign Buxton. My main point was the writer uses these examples of contracts but then doesn’t analyze them!? So I looked at all those players myself to see how they worked out. Turns out he didn’t analyze them Because a lot of them sucked afterwards. And the 2 that didn’t suck afterwards had healthy histories. And also, can someone give an example of a player with an extensive injury history who turned things around in the 30’s. I’m sure they exist I just can’t think of any. But what’s concerning is that Buxton early on had a lot of fluke injuries. That is still somewhat true but now he has nagging hip, nagging hamstring, shoulder surgery, etc. I don’t think these are good signs of future health, but who knows.

 

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21 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Every player falls apart eventually. And good players often fall apart while they're still under a good contract -- that's just how the system generally works, and teams simply try to position themselves so those "fall apart" seasons/ages don't happen until closer to the end of the contract.

Lorenzo Cain and Charlie Blackmon started their currents contracts the season they turned 32 years old, and they still performed well for at least a season or two beyond that. Buxton is still only 27 years old, so he has 5 more full seasons until he turns 33.

This still doesn’t inspire much confidence in Buxton getting luckier on the health front.

I personally want the Twins to extend him, but this team and FO is very risk averse.

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3 hours ago, sthpstm said:

. And also, can someone give an example of a player with an extensive injury history who turned things around in the 30’s. I’m sure they exist I just can’t think of any.

Good question. I’ve seen this question raised in this forum before, and there were at least a couple interesting names that posters came up with, but I did not have that thread bookmarked unfortunately. 

Actually, Paul Molitor might be one example, a guy who was healthier later in his career. 

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16 hours ago, beckmt said:

Dominguez is supposed to be totally off limits.  The other two would not be enough.  We will soon see what happens. Otherwise it will be after the new CBA because taking on salary with an extension would be risky for a big market team.  Twins will never get full value if Buxton is a one year rental.

You think fangraphs, baseball America and Keith law, among others, are somehow tricked by the Yankees into over rating prospects? We'll just disagree on that I guess. 

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1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

You think fangraphs, baseball America and Keith law, among others, are somehow tricked by the Yankees into over rating prospects? We'll just disagree on that I guess. 

I am talking about the national writers who are on the coast (most of them) and tend to write stories about moving good to great midwest players to the coast teams, and some of this is by overvaluing prospects in those systems.

Same thing is going on now in basketball, where you get at least one national writer a week posting a story about how unhappy Towns is here and he wants to move to a contending coast team. 

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Maybe this franchise is just jinxed. On one hand we take a risk by waiting to trade him during the season, since his track record is he could be injured at just the wrong moment. On the other, we think we want to sign him long term. These two points of view are pretty incompatible. Tough outcome for the team, and an unsolvable dilemma, regarding a former high draft pick 

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2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Good question. I’ve seen this question raised in this forum before, and there were at least a couple interesting names that posters came up with, but I did not have that thread bookmarked unfortunately. 

Actually, Paul Molitor might be one example, a guy who was healthier later in his career. 

Paul Molitor did get healthier later in his career when he went to First and DH.  He was an all time great hitter though his full career.  Buck has been up and down his whole career.  He has yet to put together a full season of sustained hitting to expect he will hit when he gets older.

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1 hour ago, beckmt said:

I am talking about the national writers who are on the coast (most of them) and tend to write stories about moving good to great midwest players to the coast teams, and some of this is by overvaluing prospects in those systems.

Same thing is going on now in basketball, where you get at least one national writer a week posting a story about how unhappy Towns is here and he wants to move to a contending coast team. 

So....I should trust those sites, all of whom have highly regarded Yankees' prospects? 

Do people read "national writers" to get opinions about prospects? I'm really not sure of your point here. 

Also, I'd guess Towns would like to be on a winner. 

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I'd feel a bit disappointed if the Twins trade Buck this offseason, just because that signals the Twins won't be competitive in 2022, and also because I won't get to watch Buxton play next year. The return is also not going to be great, because it's only for one year of a guy who doesn't stay on the field and will earn about 10 million in 2022, so it's not like he's cheap. 

My position on this is clear: Generally, you don't sign large guaranteed contracts to frequently injured outfielders who rely on speed to determine their value. Injuries just don't go away. Speed does go away. Buxton is not going to suddenly become durable in his 30's. If he hits, he could have value playing a corner spot, but corner outfielders who can hit are not hard to find. 

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Buxton is a risk. He will not bring back a player of his talent. The Twins are sticking their necks out for a 7/$80 million contract. The incentives would not be a risk. Buxton has not slowed down. The injuries are not really a sure prediction of the next decade, but there is risk. Both sides have valid points in the sign/unaffordable-trade discussion. I would think that now is a good opportunity for the Twins to risk a $11 million per year potential loss, if Buxton is lost to injuries. Think of this as the Happ-Shoemaker Bill. One item not discussed is whether the Twins could insure Buxton's salary against injury. A trade is likely if Falvey believes the team is five years out from contention in the AL Central. 

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On 11/16/2021 at 6:42 PM, Vanimal46 said:

If we somehow end up trading Berrios and Buxton within a calendar year of each other, I’m going to have to take some time to see if I really want to prioritize the Twins and MLB in my free time. The pain is going to be too much to handle. 

The FO created 2 self-inflicting, horribly managed situations. There’s still time to right this ship before it’s too late and a trade occurs  

 

Those were my exact thoughts. I've been accused of having permanent rose-tinted contacts in when it comes to the Twins, but if Buxton is gone this year, I think I'm taking a year or three off watching baseball. At least MLB.

 

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