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Berrios signs Extension with Blue Jays


Vanimal46
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10 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So in 5 years, they traded for Odo and Maeda, signed Cruz and Donaldson, I stick with my point .

Your point was predicated on a window being open, due to a run of 3 straight division titles.  Setting aside the fact that no such run has occurred since 2002-2004 (when Falvey was busy with undergrad classes at Trinity College), if the winning of division titles is what opened the window (meaning the window only opened in 2019), why would you ding them for not doing anything during the window when in fact the window wasn't open in 2017 or 2018?

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1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Your point was predicated on a window being open, due to a run of 3 straight division titles.  Setting aside the fact that no such run has occurred since 2002-2004 (when Falvey was busy with undergrad classes at Trinity College), if the winning of division titles is what opened the window (meaning the window only opened in 2019), why would you ding them for not doing anything during the window when in fact the window wasn't open in 2017 or 2018?

They were predicted to contend this last year....what did they do to add to the team going into 2021? Not much, frankly. And, I've largely defended the FO, but this last off season was a major bummer for me. 

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15 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I am going to guess with 1 year of arbitration remaining the Twins were offering a 5 year deal in the 75 to 85 million range.berrios probably wanted a 6th year and around 120 million.  Thats a big gap but mostly from the 6th year.  I bet Berrios probably thought he would get most of his ask so he stuck by it and git what he wanted.

I would be shocked if the Twins offer this past July was actually 5/$75M; that may have been a contract they offered--before 2019.  My guess is that this past July they indeed offered 5 years, but for $100M, and a portion of that was incentive based.  That would be a pretty easy offer to reject for Berrios, in my opinion, but not a slam dunk refusal.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They were predicted to contend this last year....what did they do to add to the team going into 2021? Not much, frankly. And, I've largely defended the FO, but this last off season was a major bummer for me. 

Completely agree they didn't do anything going into this year--I assume that's because massive losses in 2020, and the uncertain financial outlook in 2021 kept them from truly swinging for the fences, especially because the roster was still projected for the third most wins in the AL (according to the site below).  Would I have liked to see them do more?  Without a doubt, but I can understand why they didn't.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/win-totals/

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7 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Completely agree they didn't do anything going into this year--I assume that's because massive losses in 2020, and the uncertain financial outlook in 2021 kept them from truly swinging for the fences, especially because the roster was still projected for the third most wins in the AL (according to the site below).  Would I have liked to see them do more?  Without a doubt, but I can understand why they didn't.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/win-totals/

The Cleveland team is claiming massive losses, and just valued their team at 1.4 billion in an attempt to sell some of the team. Teams have plenty of money, or they wouldn't have that value. So, no, I can't understand at all. The window was open....

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3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Cleveland team is claiming massive losses, and just valued their team at 1.4 billion in an attempt to sell some of the team. Teams have plenty of money, or they wouldn't have that value. So, no, I can't understand at all. The window was open....

Having an asset valued at something is not the same as having that amount of money.  The teams' books are closed, so we can't possibly say how much money they have--that said, if the teams have so much money, why would the Guardians' owners want to sell a piece of that, thereby reducing their cut of that money?  The league lost Billions in revenue in 2020, and almost assuredly in 2021 as well; why is it so hard to believe owners might want to retrench, especially with the vast uncertainty around COVID in the winter of 2020/2021?

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5 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Having an asset valued at something is not the same as having that amount of money.  The teams' books are closed, so we can't possibly say how much money they have--that said, if the teams have so much money, why would the Guardians' owners want to sell a piece of that, thereby reducing their cut of that money?  The league lost Billions in revenue in 2020, and almost assuredly in 2021 as well; why is it so hard to believe owners might want to retrench, especially with the vast uncertainty around COVID in the winter of 2020/2021?

The part they are selling is in trust....and not owned by them. 

They can want to retrench all they want. They have more than enough money to pay players. As we are already seeing this off season with other teams spending money. It is hard to believe because they keep claiming they don't have money, and yet the value of the assets keeps going up very, very, fast. 

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3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

7 years $140 million. So much for being dead set on testing free agency, eh? 

Extension = 6 years and $120MM. Escalators worth $10MM (unreported). Limited No trade protection. Opt out after year 5. The contract includes his arbitration year slated at $11MM for next year. 

From MLBTradeRumors - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/extension-candidate-jose-berrios.html "It should be noted that Berrios has already been vocal about his desire to test free agency.  “[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value….We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be,” Berrios told The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Phil Miller back in July.  Berrios turned down extension offers from the Twins in the past and also went to an arbitration hearing with the team to determine his 2020 salary."

A very similar pitcher (Eduardo Rodriguez) just signed for 5 years and $80MM. Berrios engaged in negotiations with the Twins and Blue Jays rather than just saying "no." The Blue Jays came up with an overpay and Berrios took it. The Twins didn't seem to get any traction with Berrios at all and the way Falvey beat down Kepler and Polanco makes me believe they were probably low-balling the heck out of Jose as well. The total extension was right where I expected Berrios to be in terms of cost and the fact Berrios took it after a career season shows he was still reasonable. It's a great deal for Berrios and Toronto recognized the value of having a very good starting pitcher locked up long term. Something the Twins are completely oblivious to.

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1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Seems like the Twins offered Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler $20M+ per year, so I don't think whatever transpired here is exactly a definitive answer on future spending. Hard to wrap my head around this though as it's not like the Twins to overlook the bird in the hand for the two in the bush.

My feeling was that the next CBA absolutely HAD to be player friendly and the free agents would be hesitant to sign early.  With Rodriguez and Syndergaard flying off the board, maybe that perspective is wrong. Maybe something has changed. I'm certainly not happy about this, but perhaps there is a better than zero percent chance that whatever is about to occur with the CBA did change Berrios' prerogative.

The Twins made offers to Darvish and Wheeler they knew would not be accepted. They kept making the same offers until Wheeler's agent told them to stop calling with the same offer... just like what Spielman was doing with the Panthers a couple drafts ago in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

First of all, I liked your take better than mine. I'm just %#@! mad. You seem less so, and I appreciated your post.

But, you don't offer a deal like this because you think Berrios will still be worth 18M in year seven. You offer a deal like this because you think he'll be worth $30M or more in the first few years on the contract. Possibly even a WS title. Sometimes, you gotta extend a contract to secure the talent near-term. The Twins are unwilling to do this, but it might be what it takes to build a winner. We'll see how it works out for Toronto.

Good point. Do we think Berrios is going to be worth $30 million over each of the next few years? I'll bet the under, but could easily be wrong.

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28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Cleveland team is claiming massive losses, and just valued their team at 1.4 billion in an attempt to sell some of the team. Teams have plenty of money, or they wouldn't have that value. So, no, I can't understand at all. The window was open....

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196653/revenue-of-the-cleveland-indians-since-2006/

I don't have the values from 2021, but do recall the parks weren't fully open for 1/2 the season and Cleveland wasn't expected to win the division or make the playoffs. By the time full capacity was announced, Cleveland was far behind in the standings and looking like they were going to be passed by the Tigers.

Massive losses in 2020? Absolutely. That said, if you look at the graphic, Cleveland improved revenues from $220MM in 2015 to $290MM by the end of 2019. That's what winning does. Progressive Field was totally renovated after 2015 and the team was winning the division. Had they won or made multiple World Series', Cleveland would have seen an even bigger surge in revenue. I find it extremely hard to believe Cleveland lost big money in 2021, though. A paltry, sub $50MM payroll, tons of revenue sharing, and dramatically improved revenue streams... Though I suppose merchanise sales may have been brutal after the name change announcement.

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16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins made offers to Darvish and Wheeler they knew would not be accepted. They kept making the same offers until Wheeler's agent told them to stop calling with the same offer... just like what Spielman was doing with the Panthers a couple drafts ago in the NFL.

That sounds completely made up. Reports were that Wheeler only wanted to stay on the East Coast to make his wife happy.

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3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196653/revenue-of-the-cleveland-indians-since-2006/

I don't have the values from 2021, but do recall the parks weren't fully open for 1/2 the season and Cleveland wasn't expected to win the division or make the playoffs. By the time full capacity was announced, Cleveland was far behind in the standings and looking like they were going to be passed by the Tigers.

Massive losses in 2020? Absolutely. That said, if you look at the graphic, Cleveland improved revenues from $220MM in 2015 to $290MM by the end of 2019. That's what winning does. Progressive Field was totally renovated after 2015 and the team was winning the division. Had they won or made multiple World Series', Cleveland would have seen an even bigger surge in revenue. I find it extremely hard to believe Cleveland lost big money in 2021, though. A paltry, sub $50MM payroll, tons of revenue sharing, and dramatically improved revenue streams... Though I suppose merchanise sales may have been brutal after the name change announcement.

What does Statista base those numbers on? Because that data isn't coming from the organization. I'm curious as to how they arrive at their numbers.

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22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins made offers to Darvish and Wheeler they knew would not be accepted. They kept making the same offers until Wheeler's agent told them to stop calling with the same offer... just like what Spielman was doing with the Panthers a couple drafts ago in the NFL.

I don’t think either of those are true. What kind of team would keep pestering the team/agent with the same offer? What is your source?

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34 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What does Statista base those numbers on? Because that data isn't coming from the organization. I'm curious as to how they arrive at their numbers.

What I can find is that Cleveland's local TV deal is worth right around $50M.  Radio has to be far less (a quick search doesn't reveal any concrete numbers).  ESPN reports local attendance at just over 1.1M fans--if each spent $40 all in (seems reasonable, albeit probably on the high side), that's another $44M.  Add in local naming rights and other revenues, and the Guardians probably land at around $120M to $130M.  Are they really getting $150M in money from MLB?  I somehow doubt that, although I'm open to be convinced otherwise.

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1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Your point was predicated on a window being open, due to a run of 3 straight division titles.  Setting aside the fact that no such run has occurred since 2002-2004 (when Falvey was busy with undergrad classes at Trinity College), if the winning of division titles is what opened the window (meaning the window only opened in 2019), why would you ding them for not doing anything during the window when in fact the window wasn't open in 2017 or 2018?

I was wrong when I said 3 titles, I should have said two and a wild card (2017,2019,2020). That is the playoffs 3 of 4 years and went into the 5th year highly regarded. (In 2018 they went 78-84 and took 2nd in a bad division)

Their big moves were trading for Odo, signing an aging Cruz to basically a one year contract (in February), signed Donaldson (which was big), and traded a highly regarded minor league relief pitcher for Maeda.

I would say all of them worked out pretty well, but that is all they did, Wait, sorry that is not all, they traded their best pitcher and are having problems signing their position player.

So yes my opinion is they barely did a darn thing, if people want to believe that wasn't a window or they did do a lot that is their opinion.

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1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The part they are selling is in trust....and not owned by them. 

They can want to retrench all they want. They have more than enough money to pay players. As we are already seeing this off season with other teams spending money. It is hard to believe because they keep claiming they don't have money, and yet the value of the assets keeps going up very, very, fast. 

I'm no financial/legal expert, but how exactly does one earn revenue from selling something not owned by the seller?  Also, the idea that increasing value is inexorably tied to increasing revenues is also not rooted in reality--witness the stock market.

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32 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I don’t think either of those are true. What kind of team would keep pestering the team/agent with the same offer? What is your source?

It was known the Twins weren't in the lead for Darvish at the end and it was known where the expected value for Darvish was. It was known the Twins weren't among the finalists for Wheeler. The Twins went low (not even close) on both pitchers.

The source where Wheeler declined to meet with the Twins and Jet Sports agents told the Twins they were out was in an article shortly before or after Wheeler's signing was announced. Wheeler's agents initially met with the Twins. I didn't believe the source existed either, but after a lot of digging, I did find it last year. It's so tough to locate those types of articles when search engines make all their revenue from new articles on star players. I looked for 10 minutes, but couldn't find it again.

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3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I was wrong when I said 3 titles, I should have said two and a wild card (2017,2019,2020). That is the playoffs 3 of 4 years and went into the 5th year highly regarded. (In 2018 they went 78-84 and took 2nd in a bad division)

Their big moves were trading for Odo, signing an aging Cruz to basically a one year contract (in February), signed Donaldson (which was big), and traded a highly regarded minor league relief pitcher for Maeda.

I would say all of them worked out pretty well, but that is all they did, Wait, sorry that is not all, they traded their best pitcher and are having problems signing their position player.

So yes my opinion is they barely did a darn thing, if people want to believe that wasn't a window or they did do a lot that is their opinion.

Cruz was signed to a two-year deal, and then another 1 year deal--2+ months of him was then turned into (potentially) 6 years of a cheap starter and 6 years of a cheap reliever.

Don't forget other ancillary moves like Castro, Gonzalez, Pineda, Romo, etc.

They also oversaw the blossoming of multiple young players, including Polanco, Kepler, Garver, Rogers, Duffey, Arraez, and yes, Buxton and Berrios.  You can not like the FO's strategy, but to look at a team that has made the playoffs in 60% of Falvine's tenure, when that team averaged 93 losses for the 5 years prior, and claiming they haven't done anything seems odd.

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50 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What does Statista base those numbers on? Because that data isn't coming from the organization. I'm curious as to how they arrive at their numbers.

Good question. Statista matches Forbes, but Forbes is awfully sketchy in their valuation reports. From Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2021/03/26/forbes-releases-24th-annual-valuations-of-major-league-baseballs-30-teams/?sh=74793cd124e6

Methodology

Revenue and operating income (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) measure cash in versus cash out (not accrual accounting) for the 2020 season. Ownership stakes in regional sports networks, as well as related profits or losses, were exclusive from our valuations and operating results. Sources include sports bankers, public documents like leases and filings related to public bonds and media rights.

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4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It was known the Twins weren't in the lead for Darvish at the end and it was known where the expected value for Darvish was. It was known the Twins weren't among the finalists for Wheeler. The Twins went low (not even close) on both pitchers.

The source where Wheeler declined to meet with the Twins and Jet Sports agents told the Twins they were out was in an article shortly before or after Wheeler's signing was announced. Wheeler's agents initially met with the Twins. I didn't believe the source existed either, but after a lot of digging, I did find it last year. It's so tough to locate those types of articles when search engines make all their revenue from new articles on star players. I looked for 10 minutes, but couldn't find it again.

Do we know if Wheeler's agents met with the Twins simply as a courtesy?  Perhaps those agents have other clients that might be open to signing with the Twins in the future, and wanted to build a relationship with Falvine/get an idea of how Falvine approaches FA negotiations?  Unless there is hard evidence that Wheeler would have been willing to sign with the Twins if they had made the best offer, his agents meeting with the Twins in no way indicates that Wheeler didn't sign here simply because of a lowball offer.  It also is not a refutation of the widely-reported claim that Wheeler was just not interested in signing in the Midwest.

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Just now, Cap'n Piranha said:

Do we know if Wheeler's agents met with the Twins simply as a courtesy?  Perhaps those agents have other clients that might be open to signing with the Twins in the future, and wanted to build a relationship with Falvine/get an idea of how Falvine approaches FA negotiations?  Unless there is hard evidence that Wheeler would have been willing to sign with the Twins if they had made the best offer, his agents meeting with the Twins in no way indicates that Wheeler didn't sign here simply because of a lowball offer.  It also is not a refutation of the widely-reported claim that Wheeler was just not interested in signing in the Midwest.

It was early in the Wheeler negotiations. The Twins said Wheeler was their primary target so maybe they expressed firm interest before other teams came into the negotiations. Wheeler would not likely have signed with the Twins if they made the technically best offer. It was revealed the White Sox made a slightly bigger offer than the Phillies; however, Wheeler preferred to remain on the East Coast. That said, when the offers are close, intangibles tend to make the decisions. If the Twins offered $130MM? We'll never know.

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1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

It was early in the Wheeler negotiations. The Twins said Wheeler was their primary target so maybe they expressed firm interest before other teams came into the negotiations. Wheeler would not likely have signed with the Twins if they made the technically best offer. It was revealed the White Sox made a slightly bigger offer than the Phillies; however, Wheeler preferred to remain on the East Coast. That said, when the offers are close, intangibles tend to make the decisions. If the Twins offered $130MM? We'll never know.

Completely fair--everyone has an amount for which they would be willing to abdicate personal preferences in location.  That said--the Twins have to concern themselves much more with the downside of deals than East Coast teams generally do.  If Wheeler becomes a 3 WAR pitcher, the Phillies have the resources to survive paying $25M a year for that.  The Twins generally do not, so if they are committing to that, it has to be for a player quite unlikely to underperform.  This is why Buxton remains unextended.

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I view this extension as reasonable and something the Twins could have offered so I am disappointed in the Twins approach on this.  Berrios was homegrown - a solid, reliable well-liked good character pitcher.  Someone the fans would want to root for and support through a long career.     Yes we got 2 nice assets for him but they are as yet unproven at the Major League level.    And here we are in the offseason looking for starting pitching and I have a feeling we will settle for something far less.   Perhaps the Front Office has a different pitching approach something more in-line with Tampa Bay and keep a rotation of cost effective starters so I will reserve full judgement until the offseason dust settles (and into next season).   It is just they don't have a lot of leeway given last offseason pitching acquisitions.    Also, sign Buxton for Pete's sake.   

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45 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Cruz was signed to a two-year deal, and then another 1 year deal--2+ months of him was then turned into (potentially) 6 years of a cheap starter and 6 years of a cheap reliever.

Don't forget other ancillary moves like Castro, Gonzalez, Pineda, Romo, etc.

They also oversaw the blossoming of multiple young players, including Polanco, Kepler, Garver, Rogers, Duffey, Arraez, and yes, Buxton and Berrios.  You can not like the FO's strategy, but to look at a team that has made the playoffs in 60% of Falvine's tenure, when that team averaged 93 losses for the 5 years prior, and claiming they haven't done anything seems odd.

You keep changing what I said.

first you clam I said 3 straight titles, now you claim I said they having done anything. Neither of which I said.

Also - The Twins signed Cruz to a one-year, $14.3 million contract that comes with a $12 million club option for 2020.

Which is exactly what I said basically a 1 year contract.

 

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If that is what it would have taken to extend Berrios they should have done it.  He has been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball and pretty consistent the last few years as well.  He has had his end of the season swoons but overall he is about as rock solid as you are going to get.  That is a hard commodity to find in a ML Baseball pitcher.  I think the Blue Jays helped themselves a lot with this deal.

The FO better be sure that they develop the pitching they need and there will be major pressure for SWR to work out now.  He needs to be a younger version of Jose to make that deal work IMO.  I know they got a fairly sure thing in Martin but losing pitching for hitting doesn't make sense given their current situation.  

20M per year seems pretty reasonable and keeping your home grown guy seems even better.  If he was looking for 25 or more I could see having no choice but to make a trade, but I think 20M was the sweet spot and the Jays got it done.  Kind of bummed about that trade now.

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