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Berrios signs Extension with Blue Jays


Vanimal46
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5 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Agreed, we only know half the story and we'll likely never know all of it.  

To this point, we still don't know what the entire deal he got entails either.  There could be details in the deal that the Twins wouldn't give him.  There's still a lot of things we simply don't know yet.  It certainly doesn't look good at first blush though.

Things change in people's minds after career situation's change outside of their control. In my own experience of going through lay-offs and a company being acquired by another, my priorities for what I wanted in my future employment changed. Maybe Berrios' changed as a result of the trade? We'll probably never know...

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I always read “wants to test free agency” as also meaning “wants a market offer.” If you followed Berrios after he was traded, it was plain to see that leaving Minnesota hurt him. Anyway, I’m happy for him and will always be a fan of his and this gives me a new AL East team to cheer for.

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Darn, I’m surprised he took that deal, I thought he could get more in FA. I would have inked that deal in a heartbeat if I were the Twins.

They did at least trade Berrios at his peak value and got a haul for him. The FO has doubled down on their prospects panning out - especially their pitching prospects. They’re going to need some success in that department soon or our pitching is going to continue to be a millstone for this team.
 

Also, what is it with Twins getting traded and then inking below market deals? (See Escobar, Pressly)

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I know I’m in the minority again, but this FO does not sign 7 year deals for SPs, especially for close to $20MM/yr. 

Sorry, that’s just the reality - it’s just not happening. And I’m not upset about it. We will see how well Jose does over those seven years. What’s the over/under on his ERA from ‘23 onward? 4+?  I’ll take developing our staff and the savings to redeploy annually to build a pen. I just don’t think the cost benefit analysis supports a 7 yr. $20MM SP who can only get through the order more than twice about 25% if the time. I’m addition, I’m betting right now Martin is a legit corner outfielder or super utility player for us for many years at basically league minimum. We will see on SWR too. 
 

This team going forward, until a window clearly opens, is primarily about developing controllable SP assets on the cheap.  
 

Don’t ding the Pohlads. When the window looked open they have spent. They are solid owners (they did right by the entire organization through Covid).  
 

Now let’s resign BB and trade JD so we can sign a long term SS solution. I’m very positive in this team’s prospects for building toward a new window in ‘23 and beyond. 

Good for Jose. He’s set for life. Well done. 

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2 minutes ago, Linus said:

I guess the notion of the Twins going after a front line free agent starter seems pretty foolish right about now. 

I thought the same thing. Bundy, Cobb, Pineda, etc. are all seemingly the potential additions via free agency. If the Twins cannot sign a Berrios for that contract or gamble on a Syndergaard, the options are going to be limited in free agency. This leaves trades as the only viable option before dipping to a rebuilding plan. There are still options but today was not so cheerful for Twins fans, except that we should be happy for Jose.

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1 minute ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I know I’m in the minority again, but this FO does not sign 7 year deals for SPs, especially for close to $20MM/yr. 

Sorry, that’s just the reality - it’s just not happening. And I’m not upset about it. We will see how well Jose does over those seven years. What’s the over/under on his ERA from ‘23 onward? 4+?  I’ll take developing our staff and the savings to redeploy annually to build a pen. I just don’t think the cost benefit analysis supports a 7 yr. $20MM SP who can only get through the order more than twice about 25% if the time. I’m addition, I’m betting right now Martin is a legit corner outfielder or super utility player for us for many years at basically league minimum. We will see on SWR too. 
 

This team going forward, until a window clearly opens, is primarily about developing controllable SP assets on the cheap.  
 

Don’t ding the Pohlads. When the window looked open they have spent. They are solid owners (they did right by the entire organization through Covid).  
 

Now let’s resign BB and trade JD so we can sign a long term SS solution. I’m very positive in this team’s prospects for building toward a new window in ‘23 and beyond. 

Good for Jose. He’s set for life. Well done. 

This seems right to me. I’m guessing (purely guessing) that the Twins weren’t offering anything all that close to 7 years. 

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49 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

What are they going to say that would be of value? They won't give a candid response. They clearly didn't even tell the truth about Berrios' intention to hit free agency.

If Pohlad is unhappy about this, he should say so. He has to agree that this was a very reasonable contract extension and would have helped this team extend a window of contention. He should think seriously about making a change in the FO staff. Immediately.

Or, if Falvey/Levine wanted to sign Berrios to exactly this kind of extension and were rebuffed by ownership, they should say so publicly and let Pohlad take the heat. They should also think about leaving if they're working for a boss who tells the fans one thing about a commitment to winning and his admin staff something else.

Either way, what's happening at 1 Twins Way these days absolutely stinks.

Perhaps I missed it, but I'm not aware of any quotations from the Twins FO that Berrios wanted to test FA.  To be fair, I'm not aware of any quotations from Berrios either; my recollection is that Berrios' refusal of multiple extension offers, and willingness to go to arbitration to maximize his earnings led many/most to infer Berrios was insistent on that path.

Falvey/Levine publicly throwing their employer under the bus seems like an excellent way to demolish their careers in Major League Baseball.

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3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I know I’m in the minority again, but this FO does not sign 7 year deals for SPs, especially for close to $20MM/yr. 

But would they sign one to a 6 year deal, after they played out their final arbitration season? That's effectively what this deal is, a 6-year contract signed a year early. (Obviously some more risk for the team to sign such a deal a year early, but perhaps not a ton, as the next year should be the most predictable/stable for Berrios. And of course there is some risk in waiting too.)

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1 minute ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

But would they sign one to a 6 year deal, after they played out their final arbitration season? That's effectively what this deal is, a 6-year contract signed a year early. (Obviously some more risk for the team to sign such a deal a year early, but perhaps not a ton, as the next year should be the most predictable/stable for Berrios. And of course there is some risk in waiting too.)

I wonder how much the CBA situation plays into this, too.  I have no inkling one way or another, genuinely curious.

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15 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Darn, I’m surprised he took that deal, I thought he could get more in FA. I would have inked that deal in a heartbeat if I were the Twins.

I could see him getting a little more in free agency, but probably not significantly more. He'd be a couple years younger than Gausman, Ray, or Stroman but still seems firmly in that class (barring any crazy breakout in 2022, of course).

Edit to add: put another way, I think this was close enough that he had to take it. Probably not worth the risk of waiting a year just to get 10% more or whatever.

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As I see it, there are 5 possible explanations for why this deal happened.

  1. Berrios wanted a premium in order to stay in MN
  2. Berrios was willing to take a discount in order to stay in TOR
  3. Berrios and his camp are more pessimistic than average about the players' chances in the upcoming CBA
  4. The Pohlads/Falvine are cheap
  5. The contract features escalators that add $70M-$100M to the deal, Falvine was aware of this, and decided he would prefer to give that contract (or a portion thereof) to a different pitcher, and still get two premium prospects

Of these, I think 5 is the most likely explanation, but it certainly could be any one (or two, or three) of the above.

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2 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I could see him getting a little more in free agency, but probably not significantly more. He'd be a couple years younger than Gausman or Stroman but still seems firmly in that class (barring any crazy breakout in 2022, of course).

I always thought Wheeler's 5 yr/$118M was the baseline for Berrios--signed two years later, but with Berrios younger at the time of signing than Wheeler, with Wheeler having the higher ceiling, and Berrios the (much) higher floor.

We'll have to see what the escalators are, and how the annual salaries work out, but it seems unlikely Berrios will make $118M in the first five years without activating those escalators.  As such, it's hard for me to definitively say whether this is good or bad yet.  If the escalators simply add $2M for every remaining year of the deal every time he hits 200 IP, then the Twins should have signed him to this deal.  If they add $5M for every remaining year of the deal every time he hits 150 IP, then I'm glad the Twins didn't sign this deal.

Clearly I'm exaggerating for effect here, but simply to prove a point--minus knowledge of the escalators, we can't confidently say what this deal is, therefore we can't confidently say if it's good or bad the Twins didn't sign Berrios to it.

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35 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

As I see it, there are 5 possible explanations for why this deal happened.

  1. Berrios wanted a premium in order to stay in MN
  2. Berrios was willing to take a discount in order to stay in TOR
  3. Berrios and his camp are more pessimistic than average about the players' chances in the upcoming CBA
  4. The Pohlads/Falvine are cheap
  5. The contract features escalators that add $70M-$100M to the deal, Falvine was aware of this, and decided he would prefer to give that contract (or a portion thereof) to a different pitcher, and still get two premium prospects

Of these, I think 5 is the most likely explanation, but it certainly could be any one (or two, or three) of the above.

I can think of a number of other explanations.

He changed his mind about an extension.

The Twins offered only 5 years.

Etc. 

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Toronto knew they had a good thing and went for it. I'm very happy for Berrios. I believe he would have signed for less with us because he'd preferred to stay with his teammates. As I stated last year if we had traded for Baez last year we could've extended both of them. Their wives are sisters and are good friends this would be a motivating factor. Extending Berrios made more sense to me than going after a high end FA.

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50 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

This team going forward, until a window clearly opens, is primarily about developing controllable SP assets on the cheap. 

Wasn't the window clearly open when they won 3 division titles? They barely did a darn thing. But hey maybe in 2024 or beyond they will do something.

This isn't meant for you, but it is kind of sad that even the fans have gotten into the "wo is me" we are just the Twins and are a mid market team that can't have nice things and are happy with the hope of the next group of prospects.

 

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Seems like the Twins offered Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler $20M+ per year, so I don't think whatever transpired here is exactly a definitive answer on future spending. Hard to wrap my head around this though as it's not like the Twins to overlook the bird in the hand for the two in the bush.

My feeling was that the next CBA absolutely HAD to be player friendly and the free agents would be hesitant to sign early.  With Rodriguez and Syndergaard flying off the board, maybe that perspective is wrong. Maybe something has changed. I'm certainly not happy about this, but perhaps there is a better than zero percent chance that whatever is about to occur with the CBA did change Berrios' prerogative.

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5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I can think of a number of other explanations.

He changed his mind about an extension.

The Twins offered only 5 years.

Etc. 

I can't imagine Berrios would change his mind about an extension absent some kind of impetus--I think that's covered in my 3rd point.  I suppose it's possible Berrios just decided to stop rolling the dice on continued health, but that seems out of character for him, and if that's what is driving his openness to this deal, then I'm glad we didn't commit 7 years to a guy who all of the sudden doesn't believe in his ability to stay durable.

Not going to 7 years would fit under my 4th point (Pohlad's/Falvine are cheap).  After all, if Berrios asked for a 10 year, $50M contract, I'm sure Falvine would have run through walls to present him with that contract.

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56 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sorry, that’s just the reality - it’s just not happening. And I’m not upset about it. We will see how well Jose does over those seven years.

First of all, I liked your take better than mine. I'm just %#@! mad. You seem less so, and I appreciated your post.

But, you don't offer a deal like this because you think Berrios will still be worth 18M in year seven. You offer a deal like this because you think he'll be worth $30M or more in the first few years on the contract. Possibly even a WS title. Sometimes, you gotta extend a contract to secure the talent near-term. The Twins are unwilling to do this, but it might be what it takes to build a winner. We'll see how it works out for Toronto.

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Just now, Cap'n Piranha said:

I can't imagine Berrios would change his mind about an extension absent some kind of impetus--I think that's covered in my 3rd point.  I suppose it's possible Berrios just decided to stop rolling the dice on continued health, but that seems out of character for him, and if that's what is driving his openness to this deal, then I'm glad we didn't commit 7 years to a guy who all of the sudden doesn't believe in his ability to stay durable.

Not going to 7 years would fit under my 4th point (Pohlad's/Falvine are cheap).  After all, if Berrios asked for a 10 year, $50M contract, I'm sure Falvine would have run through walls to present him with that contract.

So, they'll sign guys to shorter big deals....(Donaldson)....so I don't think it falls under cheap at all. They may just not want to take that risk on pitchers. 

You can't imagine any way a person changes their mind? I guess we'll just disagree on that. 

those were two examples of other explanations. Life isn't as simple as five things.....not in my opinion. I'm ok if we don't agree though, I'm not trying to change your mind. Just pointing out that not everyone agrees with you.

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6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Wasn't the window clearly open when they won 3 division titles? They barely did a darn thing. But hey maybe in 2024 or beyond they will do something.

This isn't meant for you, but it is kind of sad that even the fans have gotten into the "wo is me" we are just the Twins and are a mid market team that can't have nice things and are happy with the hope of the next group of prospects.

 

The Twins under the current FO have only won 2 titles (2019 and 2020)--the first was not expected, although they did sign Cruz immediately prior to that season.  In 2020, they traded for Maeda (who went on to finish second in AL Cy Young voting), and signed Donaldson to the largest FA contract in team history--hardly "barely...a darn thing".

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I am going to guess with 1 year of arbitration remaining the Twins were offering a 5 year deal in the 75 to 85 million range.berrios probably wanted a 6th year and around 120 million.  Thats a big gap but mostly from the 6th year.  I bet Berrios probably thought he would get most of his ask so he stuck by it and git what he wanted.

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3 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The Twins under the current FO have only won 2 titles (2019 and 2020)--the first was not expected, although they did sign Cruz immediately prior to that season.  In 2020, they traded for Maeda (who went on to finish second in AL Cy Young voting), and signed Donaldson to the largest FA contract in team history--hardly "barely...a darn thing".

So in 5 years, they traded for Odo and Maeda, signed Cruz and Donaldson, I stick with my point .

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Just now, Mike Sixel said:

So, they'll sign guys to shorter big deals....(Donaldson)....so I don't think it falls under cheap at all. They may just not want to take that risk on pitchers. 

You can't imagine any way a person changes their mind? I guess we'll just disagree on that. 

those were two examples of other explanations. Life isn't as simple as five things.....not in my opinion. I'm ok if we don't agree though, I'm not trying to change your mind. Just pointing out that not everyone agrees with you.

I'm not using cheap in a pejorative sense, I simply meant the Pohlads/Falvine were not willing to commit the amount of money necessary to convince Berrios to sign.  Again, the years are not the issue, it's the total money.  Berrios could have gotten a 7 year, $75M extension from the Twins whenever he wanted in the past 3-4 years.  He would not have gotten a 2 year, $100M extension.  Berrios just guaranteed himself $131M over 7 years--if he was willing to guarantee himself $131M over 10 years back in July, I doubt very much he gets traded.

Obviously people can change their minds--it's why I said I don't think Berrios did WITHOUT an impetus, i.e. he didn't wake up one day after years of working towards the hope of a FA bidding war bonanza, and say "you know, I think I'll just sign an extension today.  Why not?"  Maybe he had a change in his personal life we don't know about.  Maybe his arm is still sore, and that's concerning to him because in years past it wasn't in mid-November.  I would argue all of that would fit under point two--willing to take a discount to stay in TOR.

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