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What could the Twins player payroll be?


Lonestar
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The Twins should commit to retooling or rebuilding. That depends on ownership and Byron Buxton. If Buxton signs an extension with the Twins, the competitive window is still open if the Twins avoid the middle ground between retooling and rebuilding. With Covid in the rearview mirror, it’s feasible that the Twins’ player salary payroll will be commensurate to 2020’s level = $139,491,000 and that only counted Maeda’s base salary and not his incentives.

That means the Twins could have $140M player salary payroll plus Buxton’s incentives. That would mean the Twins could afford Buxton, guaranteeing him $19M and still have $53,000,000 to spend on 1 shortstop, 3 starting pitchers, 4 relief pitchers, a utility fielder and a 4th OF. They would have more to spend if Buxton’s guarantee was lower.

Player salary payroll commensurate with 2020 is the only way to make sense of the Josh Donaldson signing. That’s why the payroll reduction in 2021 hurt so much. Admittedly the Twins are not coming off a 101-win season with the Bomba Squad but like I said, the Twins should avoid the middle ground while Buxton is in the fold. Invest in 2022 and the future.

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3 hours ago, Lonestar said:

The Twins should commit to retooling or rebuilding. That depends on ownership and Byron Buxton. If Buxton signs an extension with the Twins, the competitive window is still open if the Twins avoid the middle ground between retooling and rebuilding. With Covid in the rearview mirror, it’s feasible that the Twins’ player salary payroll will be commensurate to 2020’s level = $139,491,000 and that only counted Maeda’s base salary and not his incentives.

That means the Twins could have $140M player salary payroll plus Buxton’s incentives. That would mean the Twins could afford Buxton, guaranteeing him $19M and still have $53,000,000 to spend on 1 shortstop, 3 starting pitchers, 4 relief pitchers, a utility fielder and a 4th OF. They would have more to spend if Buxton’s guarantee was lower.

Player salary payroll commensurate with 2020 is the only way to make sense of the Josh Donaldson signing. That’s why the payroll reduction in 2021 hurt so much. Admittedly the Twins are not coming off a 101-win season with the Bomba Squad but like I said, the Twins should avoid the middle ground while Buxton is in the fold. Invest in 2022 and the future.

I used these assumptions:

1) $650K as the new minimum

2) League minimum players in every open slot. 

3) Buxton at $19M

4) Arbitration estimates from MLB Trade Rumors

5) Maeda at $3M

6) 1.25M Colome buyout.

I come up with $93MM so the budget sound right but I don't know how you get 7 pitchers a SS and a 4th OFer for $50M.  That would get you two good starters.

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8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I used these assumptions:

1) $650K as the new minimum

2) League minimum players in every open slot. 

3) Buxton at $19M

4) Arbitration estimates from MLB Trade Rumors

5) Maeda at $3M

6) 1.25M Colome buyout.

I come up with $93MM so the budget sound right but I don't know how you get 7 pitchers a SS and a 4th OFer for $50M

I think your assumptions are fair other than Buxton. I don't think Buxton is straight up going to be making nearly 20M AAV next year, especially if a long term deal isn't signed. His arb number is somewhere around 8M on MLBTR, and the costly part of the extension likely wouldn't kick in until the 2023 season. There is 60M to spend. I think we also see a potential trade of Kepler or Donaldson. If either of those happen, that is roughly another 5-10M to spend, but we won't factor that in the 60M because it's a hypothetical.

 

I think the Twins likely either sign or trade for at least 3 starters on an MLB deal, with at least one making 15M AAV. They'll sign a backend guy who will cost < 5M (Shoemaker type, but hopefully better than him), and a few veterans on MiLB deals I would imagine. Then you're probably looking at 2 or 3 free agent relievers, but I'd be surprised if they spent more than 16M on the bullpen. That gets you to roughly 30ish M on the rotation, and another 15Mish on the bullpen. That doesn't leave them with much room to spend on a SS or impact bat without significantly increasing the payroll, which I don't think happen. I think at this point we're looking at either an impact SP or impact hitter (likely a SS). I'd much rather see them spend on pitching than on a SS, and at that point you're potentially running it back with Andrelton Simmons, which I know a lot of fans don't want to hear, but may be the best option at that point. 

 

If the FO is restricted on the budget, which I think it's fair to assume that they are, and they want to add a significant hitter and pitcher, they're going to have to get the pitcher through the trade market. For example, they could go for a guy like Zac Gallen (wouldn't be my choice, that arm scares me), but he fits the bill of an impact starter on a cheap salary. Of course they would have to send some top prospects to make such a move, but it would allow for some additional flexibility to spend on one of the elite shortstops if they choose to do so. 

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