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What Would You Pay Byron Buxton?


the_neds
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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

If the reports are at all accurate, it sounds like the guarantee the offered him was in the neighborhood of 7/80 or 11.4M/year so something less has virtually no shot of being accepted.  Where they disagreed was on incentives and of course we have no idea what the Twins offered or Buxton demanded.  

I thought it was 8 years and 80 million guarentee.  But if I am structuring incentives I think the ability to make 25 to 30 million would be the max.  Going higher is just out of our price range.  I would say 5 million bonus for either 80 games or 300 PA  5 million for 100 games or 375 PA 120 games or 450 PA for 5 million and 135 games or 525 PA for 5 million.  And then incentives fir MVP votes 1 million for being in top 25 in votes.  2 million fir top 15. 3 million for top 10 4 million for top 5 and 5 million for winning award.

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On 11/10/2021 at 2:34 AM, old nurse said:

5 million base salary, 10 million bonus at 300, 400, 500, 600, PA for the season including post season. 5 million bonus for any hardware.

I'm down with this except...What if (and I don't think it's in his nature as an alpha competitor) he begins to pull up on shallow flies, balls to the wall (not a euphemism), or reduces his number of steal attempts to stay safe? Pay him top dollar and let Buxton do what Buxton does without concern. I believe he has had bad injury luck. I don't think he's a fragile commodity. The bad luck injuries have happened. Let's go forward 

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17 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I offer him a six year, $15m per year base with PA incentives that can take him to $30m per year at 550 PAs. On top of that, I offer $5m for MVP votes and $5m more for an MVP. He could peak at $40m in a single season.

I'm close to this.  I raise the floor a bit on a yearly basis and lower the ceiling.  Those ceiling numbers are out of whack with baseball and probably not all that enticing for Buxton.

7 years, 17M base with relatively easy incentives to make the 20-22M range and games played incentives to land around 25-27.  Max out at 30M if he's an MVP.

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2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm close to this.  I raise the floor a bit on a yearly basis and lower the ceiling.  Those ceiling numbers are out of whack with baseball and probably not all that enticing for Buxton.

7 years, 17M base with relatively easy incentives to make the 20-22M range and games played incentives to land around 25-27.  Max out at 30M if he's an MVP.

I think it's going to take over $30m peak to seal the deal if we're talking MVP involvement - Mike Trout is making just over $37m a season - but you're probably right that more base and easing off the incentives is a more likely route to make the deal possible. Maybe a $17m base with incentives up to $35m.

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18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think it's going to take over $30m peak to seal the deal if we're talking MVP involvement - Mike Trout is making just over $37m a season - but you're probably right that more base and easing off the incentives is a more likely route to make the deal possible. Maybe a $17m base with incentives up to $35m.

All fair, but Mike Trout is Mike Trout.  Him being at 37M is exactly why I'm capping at 30M.  

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5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

All fair, but Mike Trout is Mike Trout.  Him being at 37M is exactly why I'm capping at 30M.  

My point isn't to compare Buxton to Trout but to compare a Buxton MVP season to Trout, which is what I think Byron will (deservedly) ask for.

If we're going to negotiate incentives, the top tier incentive should be the pay rate of the perennial MVP winner.

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23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

My point isn't to compare Buxton to Trout but to compare a Buxton MVP season to Trout, which is what I think Byron will (deservedly) ask for.

If we're going to negotiate incentives, the top tier incentive should be the pay rate of the perennial MVP winner.

I'm asking purely out of curiosity....how many contracts have that sort of incentive?  It feels out of the norm by a lot and more like we're trying too hard to add cherries on top of our speculation. I'm not sure that's really going to matter to an agent.

All I could find was this.

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24 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm asking purely out of curiosity....how many contracts have that sort of incentive?  It feels out of the norm by a lot and more like we're trying too hard to add cherries on top of our speculation. I'm not sure that's really going to matter to an agent.

All I could find was this.

I can't think of a player like Buxton so it shouldn't be surprising if his contract is quite a bit outside what we've seen in the past. While it's not unheard of to see a great pitcher perform otherworldly but go down with injuries constantly (Rich Hill), have we ever seen the same from a position player? A guy who can perform at a 10 win level but can't stay on the field for more than 70-90 games a season?

What I think is the real hangup with Buxton's contract is not the incentives but I suspect he wants escalators; instead of every season being a discrete event that pays him based on that single event (140 games played, 6th in MVP, etc), I suspect Byron is trying to negotiate escalators where if he hits certain milestones in a single season like 2023, it permanently escalates the rest of his contract. For example, his base is $17m per season but if he hits 500 PAs in 2024 and is third in MVP voting, his remaining contract vests at $26m per season.

And THAT becomes a lot more difficult to negotiate from the Twins' standpoint.

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24 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I can't think of a player like Buxton so it shouldn't be surprising if his contract is quite a bit outside what we've seen in the past. While it's not unheard of to see a great pitcher perform otherworldly but go down with injuries constantly (Rich Hill), have we ever seen the same from a position player? A guy who can perform at a 10 win level but can't stay on the field for more than 70-90 games a season?

What I think is the real hangup with Buxton's contract is not the incentives but I suspect he wants escalators; instead of every season being a discrete event that pays him based on that single event (140 games played, 6th in MVP, etc), I suspect Byron is trying to negotiate escalators where if he hits certain milestones in a single season like 2023, it permanently escalates the rest of his contract. For example, his base is $17m per season but if he hits 500 PAs in 2024 and is third in MVP voting, his remaining contract vests at $26m per season.

And THAT becomes a lot more difficult to negotiate from the Twins' standpoint.

I think even more rare than finding a 10 WAR position player who plays 70 games is finding a team willing to give them 7 years and anything with even a chance of cracking highest AAV in the league.

We are all too attached emotionally IMO....I think the Twins have a lot more leverage than we think if they are putting 6 years on the table.

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6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think even more rare than finding a 10 WAR position player who plays 70 games is finding a team willing to give them 7 years and anything with even a chance of cracking highest AAV in the league.

We are all too attached emotionally IMO....I think the Twins have a lot more leverage than we think if they are putting 6 years on the table.

See, and I think that's a bit backwards from how the Twins likely view the situation. If the Twins get that 10 win season from Buxton, I doubt they care all that much what they pay him in that singular season; it's the other years they primarily care about. Wiggling over what is likely $5-7m a season on what is a superstar player going out of his mind is probably not the problem; it's the fact whether you have invested $25m in a player for four more years when he's a $5m player.

Which is why I think the problem is possibly escalators versus incentives.

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48 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

See, and I think that's a bit backwards from how the Twins likely view the situation. If the Twins get that 10 win season from Buxton, I doubt they care all that much what they pay him in that singular season; it's the other years they primarily care about. Wiggling over what is likely $5-7m a season on what is a superstar player going out of his mind is probably not the problem; it's the fact whether you have invested $25m in a player for four more years when he's a $5m player.

Which is why I think the problem is possibly escalators versus incentives.

My point was I'm not sure either care.  A lot of what you and I are both saying might be well beyond what is being discussed.  The reports we had midseason is that the sides weren't that far apart at a price most here think is insultingly low.  I would bet the Twins putting six years on the table north of 15M renders most of the escalations vs incentives rather moot.  If this gets done I'd put money on it coming in lower than either of us project with less sexy escalators or incentives too.  

For fun I will stick with my high end projections and tip my cap that you might well be right about the sticking point.  But I still can't shake the feeling we all get shocked by the low sticker price if it gets done.   Time will tell I suppose.

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15 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I can't think of a player like Buxton so it shouldn't be surprising if his contract is quite a bit outside what we've seen in the past. While it's not unheard of to see a great pitcher perform otherworldly but go down with injuries constantly (Rich Hill), have we ever seen the same from a position player? A guy who can perform at a 10 win level but can't stay on the field for more than 70-90 games a season?

What I think is the real hangup with Buxton's contract is not the incentives but I suspect he wants escalators; instead of every season being a discrete event that pays him based on that single event (140 games played, 6th in MVP, etc), I suspect Byron is trying to negotiate escalators where if he hits certain milestones in a single season like 2023, it permanently escalates the rest of his contract. For example, his base is $17m per season but if he hits 500 PAs in 2024 and is third in MVP voting, his remaining contract vests at $26m per season.

And THAT becomes a lot more difficult to negotiate from the Twins' standpoint.

Aaron Judge is kind of similar. He would have been even closer had he not played a full season this year. Both put up MVP level production when on the field but Judge only had one full season (2017, his rookie year) before this year. He also becomes a free agent after next year. Predictions for Judge are around 6/150, which seems about right? I certainly wouldn't want the Twins to pay that for Judge. Buxton should be cheaper. Judge has been much more consistent and just better overall. 

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On 11/11/2021 at 7:34 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

My point isn't to compare Buxton to Trout but to compare a Buxton MVP season to Trout, which is what I think Byron will (deservedly) ask for.

If we're going to negotiate incentives, the top tier incentive should be the pay rate of the perennial MVP winner.

Can players still get bonuses for MVP?  See ....   Players with Incentive clauses

We know they can't have any performance bonuses beyond appearances so how could this be done contractually?  I have no problem with what you are saying if it could be done but I don't think the union allows this to be done.  

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39 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Can players still get bonuses for MVP?  See ....   Players with Incentive clauses

We know they can't have any performance bonuses beyond appearances so how could this be done contractually?  I have no problem with what you are saying if it could be done but I don't think the union allows this to be done.  

I thought they could receive bonuses for official trophies/awards but not informal things like a home run crown. I could easily be wrong, though. 

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Base contract: 7 years, $133 million ($19M AAV)

120 games incentive: $9.5M/yr ($28.5M AAV)

130 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($30.9M AAV)

140 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($33.3M AAV)

150 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($35.7M AAV)

I wrote extensively about this and why these values make sense below:

 

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On 11/11/2021 at 12:34 PM, denarded said:

I'm down with this except...What if (and I don't think it's in his nature as an alpha competitor) he begins to pull up on shallow flies, balls to the wall (not a euphemism), or reduces his number of steal attempts to stay safe? Pay him top dollar and let Buxton do what Buxton does without concern. I believe he has had bad injury luck. I don't think he's a fragile commodity. The bad luck injuries have happened. Let's go forward 

I don't think this would be necessarily bad...he would guarantee staying on the field. If he catches a few less fly balls per season, so what. He still would be vastly outproducing his replacement in center in the field and at the plate. He would be staying healthy and this is something the Twins have been stressing with him for a few years.

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I thought they could receive bonuses for official trophies/awards but not informal things like a home run crown. I could easily be wrong, though. 

It's too bad performance based bonuses are not allowed.  Something like an MVP award  is hard to work into a deal.  If you are the player, you are not putting much weight into an incentive only one player per league can achieve.  If the measure is scalable a certain percentage of performance bonus could be earned. I doubt we see the union take a different stance on performance bonuses but they would certainly help allocate financial resource to deserving players.  

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20 minutes ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

Good thing you aren't in charge of the payroll or else we would win 30 games a year...

I don't agree with Mikelink45 but you might keep in mind you are a college kid that has never developed a compensation system.  Having developed several for organizations producing 9 figure revenue, I see nothing that suggests you are ready to do so.  You might want to hold back on the smack talk until you have some actual credentials.

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2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't agree with Mikelink45 but you might keep in mind you are a college kid that has never developed a compensation system.  Having developed several for organizations producing 9 figure revenue, I see nothing that suggests you are ready to do so.  You might want to hold back on the smack talk until you have some actual credentials.

Fair that was definitely harsh, my bad. I should've said that these players make this type of money because the players' salaries are growing along with everything else. It would also be hard to let fans come for free because that is a large source of revenue for the team. I overstepped, my bad major league ready.

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2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't agree with Mikelink45 but you might keep in mind you are a college kid that has never developed a compensation system.  Having developed several for organizations producing 9 figure revenue, I see nothing that suggests you are ready to do so.  You might want to hold back on the smack talk until you have some actual credentials.

I would also be interested in hearing about the compensation systems you have developed, as I am always trying to learn. Feel free to shoot me a message.

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1 hour ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

I would also be interested in hearing about the compensation systems you have developed, as I am always trying to learn. Feel free to shoot me a message.

A good starting point is to model the impact of the variables being considered as incentives.  That provides great insight to which incentives should get the most weight and how to use them.  You are at a severe disadvantage in this case because your hands are tied in using any incentives that actually correlate to performance.  That's the real take-away here. 

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I am in the camp that potentially elite game changers don't want to come to Minnesota and are borderline unattainable via free agency. So, when the opportunity knocks and the chance to secure a face of the franchise-type player arises. You HAVE to lock him up. I'd give Buxton a 6 year, 90M guaranteed contract (including 2022's $7.5M) with incentives of $2M & $2M at 450 PA & 550 PA and $3M for top 5 MVP voting and $3M for Gold Glove (bonus $1M for Platinum Glove). All in all, 550 PA in a season he could earn $26M per season. 

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