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Hey Rocco - did you hear this?


mikelink45
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These are the playoffs and Astros won that game pretty handily so not a bad idea to give the pen rest for the game(s) ahead. It did seem that Rocco had a very short leash on his starters in many games this season and what could have been wrong with letting them try to work out of some trouble. Many games the Twins box score looked more like a football roster than baseball. I think Rocco thinks he can manage his way to a victory. The record kind of refutes that unless he managed the home runs in 2019.

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18 minutes ago, Number3 said:

These are the playoffs and Astros won that game pretty handily so not a bad idea to give the pen rest for the game(s) ahead. It did seem that Rocco had a very short leash on his starters in many games this season and what could have been wrong with letting them try to work out of some trouble. Many games the Twins box score looked more like a football roster than baseball. I think Rocco thinks he can manage his way to a victory. The record kind of refutes that unless he managed the home runs in 2019.

Old, tired, and incorrect take. The Twins had the 9th best ERA in baseball in 2019. They lead the AL, and were second to the Dodgers in all of baseball, in fangraphs WAR for pitching staffs in 2019 and 2020 combined. This is how the game is played now. The Twins were right where every other ML team was in starter innings per start this year, and every year since Rocco took over. 

The Twins had a plan coming into the year to lighten starter workloads early as they built back up from either 60 game or 0 game seasons. Berrios ended with the 2nd most innings pitched in the AL this year because Rocco let him go when he was good. Outside of that 1 game from the Astros this postseason they've averaged less than 3 innings per start. They're at 3.1 even with that 8 inning start. When pitchers are bad (like most of the Twins starters were this year) managers pull them. Obviously a quicker trigger in the playoffs, but this idea that Rocco is doing something wild and pulling everyone early is flat out ignoring the way baseball is played and managed at the major league level now.

But, seriously, lets stop with this "Rocco only has a good record because of the HR record." It's provably wrong.

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1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I think what he might have been trying to say is that in a few games Ober could have went longer and they could have skipped his last start,  he still ends up with 92.1 innings. I haven't read that people wanted him to pitch more innings in the year, just a few more in a game or four.

The most batters he ever faced in a game was 23 (twice), he averaged just under facing 19 guys a guy, which to me says the Twins were worried about him facing somebody three times.

The issue I see is that next year again will be a learning year for Ober and the Twins, Is he really a guy that can be counted on to start and give you 5,6,7 innings? or is he a guy that can only face a batter once or twice. On top of that he is going to be a guy on a innings count again next year, If he is completely healthy would they give him 30 starts and 5innings a start? jumping to 150 innings seems like a pretty big jump for him?

They did skip his last start. Whether or not we should believe the injury story I don't know. But I believe the reasoning for not doing more innings in fewer starts is that the science/data/medical people say most of the arm injury problems come from overuse in a single session (game) more than too many sessions (games). All the starters throw everyday, but they get hurt from throwing high effort pitches after their arm has hit it's limit that day. Not saying that's all right, but I believe that's the reasoning.

Ober threw 16 minor league innings this year. Obviously not a ton, but not nothing. That gave him 108.1 on the year. That's the most he's ever thrown in a season in his life (assuming he wasn't throwing 110 innings a season in HS). The Twins had a plan for him, and all their starters, coming into the season. It was based on science/data/medical people. They had a general plan for him in every start. But they also tracked his spin rates, velo, extension on release, and probably 10 other data points during his starts. They could see when he started to tire (lower spin rates and velo, shorter extension on release, etc.) and would then go to their bullpen/lineup matchup plan and set up a plan for when to take him out. I think fans sometimes fail to understand just how much goes into these decisions.

I get that fans want starters to go longer. I want starters to go longer. But I think there's more that goes into it than the classic "100 pitches and you're done" thought. There's also something to be said for Ober's body getting used to having to pitch every 5th/6th day until the end of September. I think a jump to 150ish innings for him is a reasonable goal for next year. Maybe it's only 140, but somewhere in that 140-160 range. That's a jump of 30-50 innings. More than doable I'd think. I'd expect we see far fewer times that he's pulled before making it through 5 innings (assuming he's pitching well) next year. Maybe not a bunch of 7 inning starts, but probably a few. I think they'll have a completely different plan for him.

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22 hours ago, big dog said:

I think Jax pitched way too long into games, myself. One or two innings would have been better.

I had my fill of Jax pretty quick, would have liked to have seen someone else up and take Jax's last 7 starts or so. He's just another uninspiring Twins rookie in his mid-to-late 20's who really doesn't have much of a future in the league. Meanwhile other teams have 18, 19, 20 year-old guys playing in All-Star games. 

This team takes wayyy too long to develop even the most blue-chip talent (Buxton is a great example).

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On 10/21/2021 at 9:34 AM, mikelink45 said:

Last night (Wednesday) Framber Valdez went 8 innings in a playoff game.  8!!!!  Why?  Ask Dusty Baker, "If a guys dealing you let him keep dealing.  Today it was in the hands of Framber Valdez."   We have seen that Dusty can win and use bullpen games and pitchers, but he also knows the value of letting a pitcher pitch.  Please put this statement on you office wall - starters are supposed to go more than 4 innings. 

Of course, that was Game 5... in Games 1-4, the Astros starters went a combined 6 1/3 innings, I believe. 

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On 10/21/2021 at 9:49 AM, chpettit19 said:

Feels like the definition of small sample size here. 

Innings by Astros starter during playoff games 2021: 6.2, 4.1 (Valdez himself!), 2.2 (not a bullpen game, Luis Garcia was the starter and had made 28 starts this year), 4, 2.2 (Valdez again!), 1 (again, not a bullpen game, Luis Garcia was just really bad again they then turned to Odo who only got them through the 5th), 1.2 (not a bullpen game, Urquidy just sucked), 1.1 (still not a bullpen game, Grienke just walked everyone), finally we get to Valdez going 8.

That's an average of 3.1 innings per start. All of which were started by legit starters. Without that 8 inning start they've averaged less than 3 innings a start from their starters this postseason.

Don't going ruining the opportunity to dump on management by stating irrefutable facts!  😝

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This is the way that major league managers handle pitching staffs these days. They are very reluctant to have the starter face a lineup a third time, they are very conscious of pitch counts in games and total innings pitched in the season. A win or even a quality start is not very important. 

I have said this before, but almost every starting pitcher is maxing out on velocity when they throw a fastball and 30-40 max effort fastballs is not the same as 30 90 mph fastballs when max effort would make it 95. Most starters are now built to go 5-6 innings at the most. It would be great to have a Wheeler, Buehler or Wainwright who could give you 200 innings and average more than 6 IP per start, but those guys are really rare. 39 guys pitched over 162 innings this year, barely one per team.

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21 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

You think pitching the bad starting pitchers more would've been a better strategy?  Or would it be burning out young arms unprepared for the workload and potentially harming their careers?  Which part sounds like winning to you?

I didn’t advocate in favor of any of your rantings.  I simply asked how the strategy paid off.

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3 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I didn’t advocate in favor of any of your rantings.  I simply asked how the strategy paid off.

Rantings?  Cute.  It paid off well for those pitchers competent enough.  Berrios was in the midst of a solid workhorse season, Ober was a great surprise, Pineda's health and standing with the team were largely maintained, and Ryan got his feet wet.

So just splendidly if you keep things in perspective.  Unfortunately we didnt have enough good arms healthy to employ it.

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On 10/21/2021 at 9:24 PM, yeahyabetcha said:

How did that strategy pay off for the Twins this?

On June 11 Matt Shoemaker pitched 1/3 of an inning and gave up 8-9 runs. Should have been kept out there longer?

 Griffin Jax, What would make you think a third time through the order would be beneficial or successful 
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1st PA in G, as SP 14 126 114 12 20 2 0 6 0 0 9 25 2.78 .175 .246 .351 .597 40 1 2 0 1 0 1 .167 42 68
2nd PA in G, as SP 14 122 106 24 30 8 0 10 0 0 12 24 2.00 .283 .369 .642 1.010 68 1 3 0 1 1 0 .274 134 166
3rd PA in G, as SP 11 55 50 14 18 9 0 2 0 0 3 5 1.67 .360 .382 .660 1.042 33 1 0 0 2 0 1 .356 141 163
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11 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I didn’t advocate in favor of any of your rantings.  I simply asked how the strategy paid off.

It would appear that what you are advocating is ignoring any and all other influences / factors that impacted results.  Let's just ignore if a strategy is right for the personnel we have and assume things would have gone better by employing a strategy ill-suited for the staff at hand.  I guess that is your prerogative as a fan.  They call it something other than a prerogative when management acts this way.  Absolute incompetence comes to mind but I am sure we could come up with a few other descriptions. 

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12 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Rantings?  Cute.  It paid off well for those pitchers competent enough.  Berrios was in the midst of a solid workhorse season, Ober was a great surprise, Pineda's health and standing with the team were largely maintained, and Ryan got his feet wet.

So just splendidly if you keep things in perspective.  Unfortunately we didnt have enough good arms healthy to employ it.

The innings limits on the young guys were understandable based on past health and usage,  I don’t understand why it had to be automatic for the veterans.  I don’t have particular examples, but I seem to remember several occurrences where one cruised thru 6 innings with 80 or less pitches, but was removed in favor of a less talented and/or overused bullpen arm.

I guess I wish each game was managed on its own merit and was not managed by checking a box.

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On 10/21/2021 at 10:43 AM, farmerguychris said:

I think its old school (Blyleven) kind of thinking to require your starters to go that deep into games.  Analytics have proven that the majority of pitchers really begin to fail the 3rd time thru a line-up.  Follow the science, have a quality bullpen and win more games.  

Where does a team find the arms for 4 or 5 pitchers per game?  162 x 5= 810 appearances per team.  67.5 appearances per pitcher on a 12 pitcher staff. Never mind BP games. Better keep Astudillo. 

 

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I am fine with how the pitchers were managed this year.  It would have been nice to have an arm capable of going 6 or 7 innings consistently.  But I think 1/3 of our games were from rookies who were in the minors last year when there was no season.  Also we had a bunch of ineffective pitchers this season which is why we were using the pitchers in the minors.  With Ober not pitching over 100 innings before it makes sense to limit his innings.  I think another 10 innings wouldn't hurt from another start and letting him go a little longer a few times. but this isn't the year to push that.  I hope next year they let Ober and Ryan surpass the 150 inning mark.  

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3 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

The innings limits on the young guys were understandable based on past health and usage,  I don’t understand why it had to be automatic for the veterans.  I don’t have particular examples, but I seem to remember several occurrences where one cruised thru 6 innings with 80 or less pitches, but was removed in favor of a less talented and/or overused bullpen arm.

I guess I wish each game was managed on its own merit and was not managed by checking a box.

A complaint with no valid examples isn't a valid complaint.  The entire point by many here is he managed what he had just as the vast majority of baseball would.

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3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

A complaint with no valid examples isn't a valid complaint.  The entire point by many here is he managed what he had just as the vast majority of baseball would.

Yep, and it turned out “splendidly”.  Although I must have missed your “valid example “ to support that.

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20 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Where does a team find the arms for 4 or 5 pitchers per game?  162 x 5= 810 appearances per team.  67.5 appearances per pitcher on a 12 pitcher staff. Never mind BP games. Better keep Astudillo. 

 

12 pitcher staff?  How many pitchers did the Twins use last year?  For bullpen arms use them and send them back down to AAA, bring up the next guy.  I do like Astudillo as a last resort however  :)

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9 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

12 pitcher staff?  How many pitchers did the Twins use last year?  For bullpen arms use them and send them back down to AAA, bring up the next guy.  I do like Astudillo as a last resort however  :)

We don't send down the good ones and those are few and far between.  

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19 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Yep, and it turned out “splendidly”.  Although I must have missed your “valid example “ to support that.

I....am...not...complaining?  I'm responding to a poorly argued complaint in which I did give examples of how their usage was good for Ober, Ryan, and Berrios.  If Rocco has somehow horribly screwed up....you shouldn't need days on end to come up with some valid examples to illustrate your complaint.  Your complaint, not mine.

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I agree with the idea that Ober was probably on a pitch/innings limit, as he should be after 2020.  However, the real reason most pitchers don't go more than 5 innings nowadays is that EVERYTHING is geared toward MAXIMUM EFFORT on EVERY pitch.  Velocity is KING now, as is SPIN RATE.  The pitchers of my youth:  Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, Seaver, Carlton, Blyleven (who all had good fastballs and curveballs) or Palmer, Sutton, Lolich, Jim Perry and others (how about Mike Cuellar) didn't expend "maximum effort on every pitch.  They "pitched."  I miss those old days.  I liked baseball "that way."  But those guys were expected to go 7 innings "minimum" and often times finish the game.  The paradigm for pitching has changed for baseball along with many other things.  It's STILL "baseball" but different from the game I grew up loving.  (fade to picture of "bitter old TopGunn" sitting in his rocker in a corner of the retirement home, nursing a beer and grumbling as I watch a baseball game).  

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On 10/23/2021 at 1:35 PM, mikelink45 said:

Where does a team find the arms for 4 or 5 pitchers per game?  162 x 5= 810 appearances per team.  67.5 appearances per pitcher on a 12 pitcher staff. Never mind BP games. Better keep Astudillo. 

 

Pitching staffs are generally 13 SPs and there is no rule that a RP can't be used more than 1 inning.  I am not going to go through the effort to research this but it seemed like the league and the Twins are using more RPs for multiple innings than they did a few years ago.  There is no reason why RPs can't throw 80 innings if managed correctly.  Why would it be a problem for a RP to have 45 appearances and throw 80 innings?  Times change and new practices are not going to make sense viewed through the lens of an outdated paradigm. 

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Pitching staffs are generally 13 SPs and there is no rule that a RP can't be used more than 1 inning.  I am not going to go through the effort to research this but it seemed like the league and the Twins are using more RPs for multiple innings than they did a few years ago.  There is no reason why RPs can't throw 80 innings if managed correctly.  Why would it be a problem for a RP to have 45 appearances and throw 80 innings?  Times change and it new practices are not going to make sense viewed through the lens of an outdated paradigm. 

Sometimes those outdated paradigms come back to bite you.

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59 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Sometimes those outdated paradigms come back to bite you.

So, what are you saying.  Are you suggesting the entire league has adopted a poor practices.  You know something none of them understand?  I don't care for some of the things that have changed about the game.  However, my dislike aside, teams are following practices that increase their odds of winning.  At least, I am assuming as a fan that teams are better positioned to evaluate these practices than I am.  Among all the teams they employ hundreds of specialists who invest thousands of man hours to understand what practices are most effective.  

We want guys to throw a hundred or as hard as they can.  We bitch non stop when out team does not relentlessly pursue velocity.  Then, we bitch when they can't throw as many innings.  

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6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

So, what are you saying.  Are you suggesting the entire league has adopted a poor practices.  You know something none of them understand?  I don't care for some of the things that have changed about the game.  However, my dislike aside, teams are following practices that increase their odds of winning.  At least, I am assuming as a fan that teams are better positioned to evaluate these practices than I am.  Among all the teams they employ hundreds of specialists who invest thousands of man hours to understand what practices are most effective.  

We want guys to throw a hundred or as hard as they can.  We bitch non stop when out team does not relentlessly pursue velocity.  Then, we bitch when they can't throw as many innings.  

Guess you have missed a lot of my posts.  I am not a maximum velocity guy - neither pitching nor hitting.  Your opinion is fine, but I will stick with mine.

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29 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Guess you have missed a lot of my posts.  I am not a maximum velocity guy - neither pitching nor hitting.  Your opinion is fine, but I will stick with mine.

"We" was meant as fans in general and the baseball industry in general.  Regardless of your position on velocity or mine, teams are pretty focused on velocity and we sure do hear about plenty about getting velocity from posters here.  I should have prefaced my statement to make that clear.  However, this does not change the fact that you are suggesting that the teams just don't get it.

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