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Projecting the Defensive Future of Minnesota's Top Prospects


7 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Arraez has quite a bit of value, I think. He does have elite contact skills and is an average defender. I remember listening to Joe Nathan say that if Arraez stayed healthy, he was a candidate for 3000 hits. I know he was speaking to a Twins audience, but that’s a pretty strong endorsement. 
 

There probably are 5-10 teams with better 2B, but many clubs would want an on-base machine with three years of team control, and he’s only 24. 

I believe many on this site tend to overlook just how good Luis Arraez has been. 

Over 3 seasons, age 22-24, Arraez has a career .313 avg / .374 obp / .777 ops

That's a really damn good major league hitter, that is still developing.

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6 minutes ago, Tim said:

I believe many on this site tend to overlook just how good Luis Arraez has been. 

Over 3 seasons, age 22-24, Arraez has a career .313 avg / .374 obp / .777 ops

That's a really damn good major league hitter, that is still developing.

He's been a 2-2.5 fWAR player each year.....I agree, people here, including me, underestimate him. 

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7 hours ago, roger said:

Polonco at second, Lewis at short and Miranda at third.  Keep Buxton and Kepler in center and right.  Add Larnach and Martin in left field with Martin moving around to center and right as needed.  Arraez gets a lot of at bats as DH, while also backing up Polo and Miranda at second and third.  Kirilloff is the first baseman with Sano as DH and AK's backup.  

Is this a lineup for 2022 or 2023, for 2022 it seems like hope for a miracle or just a rebuilding plan.  For 2023 and beyond seems like it could be a really good plan as long as they have a good contingency plan.

Starting a season relying on 5 rookies (Lewis, Miranda, Martin, Larnach, AK), plus half a starting rotation could be a crazy awesome decision, or absolutely fire-able offense.

I can't see this FO, putting their jobs on the line for a guy that hasn't played in two years, a guy they just traded for, Miranda after one great year, one injury plague (super star potential), an outfielder that started well last year, but never really turned it around, and a bunch of pitchers that weren't healthy this year.

 

 

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1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Arraez has quite a bit of value, I think. He does have elite contact skills and is an average defender. I remember listening to Joe Nathan say that if Arraez stayed healthy, he was a candidate for 3000 hits. I know he was speaking to a Twins audience, but that’s a pretty strong endorsement. 
 

There probably are 5-10 teams with better 2B, but many clubs would want an on-base machine with three years of team control, and he’s only 24. 

I think he's a below average defender.

That's a big "if" he stays healthy, his knees are suspect. What "if" the '20-21 Arraez is what you get, most teams have multiple better second baseman.

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Of the 3, Miranda looks the most prepared to start the year on the Twins roster. Although I wouldn't look for him before the end of May, barring an injury or trade of/to Donaldson. Martin perhaps the second part of the year  and Lewis 2023. I do think both Martin and Lewis should start and stick at shortstop next year to see which gives us the better option. If they both turn into utility players then ouch. We have plenty of outfielders available at this point just not sure about the overall quality.

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1 hour ago, gman said:

Of the 3, Miranda looks the most prepared to start the year on the Twins roster. Although I wouldn't look for him before the end of May, barring an injury or trade of/to Donaldson. Martin perhaps the second part of the year  and Lewis 2023. I do think both Martin and Lewis should start and stick at shortstop next year to see which gives us the better option. If they both turn into utility players then ouch. We have plenty of outfielders available at this point just not sure about the overall quality.

Martin? The Twins played him in the OF way more than infield. Just put him in LF, and leave him there so he can actually play it well defensively next year. Every month he doesn't, is a month he's not ready to come up and play good OF D. 

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30 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Martin? The Twins played him in the OF way more than infield. Just put him in LF, and leave him there so he can actually play it well defensively next year. Every month he doesn't, is a month he's not ready to come up and play good OF D. 

Looks like he played 37 more innings in the outfield than shortstop. Maybe 4 more games worth. Doesn't seem like a whole lot more to me. And they need shortstop more than outfield.

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10 minutes ago, gman said:

Looks like he played 37 more innings in the outfield than shortstop. Maybe 4 more games worth. Doesn't seem like a whole lot more to me. And they need shortstop more than outfield.

Fair, I thought it was a bigger gap than that.......maybe they think he does have a shot. The need OF that can field and hit, but they keep drafting those that can only hit.

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There are teams that are pretty locked into their positional lineup.  Houston is a good example.  However, the Dodgers have been very successful with players playing multiple positions:  Bellinger, Trea Turner, Taylor, Kiki Hernandez--when he was a Dodger) add max Muncy to the list.  It's never a BAD thing to have positional flexibility.  Injuries happen. 

I, for some reason, have always seen Lewis as a future outfielder.  Maybe he sticks at SS.  But if the Twins sign Buxton to an extension, could you imagine an outfield of:  Martin in LF, Buxton in CF and Lewis in RF ?  That would be a VERY athletic outfield.  I see Miranda at 3B, but with his ability to duplicate where Arraez plays, (and Austin Martin for that matter) I see Arraez as a valuable trade piece for pitching.  I also see Kiriloff playing a LOT of 1B.  But it's nice to know he's got the ability to play a corner OF spot.  

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4 hours ago, Tim said:

I believe many on this site tend to overlook just how good Luis Arraez has been. 

Over 3 seasons, age 22-24, Arraez has a career .313 avg / .374 obp / .777 ops

That's a really damn good major league hitter, that is still developing.

Still developing, maybe--although he's gotten worse each of the past two years since 2019--but a .777 OPS is not a "really damn good MLB hitter."

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3 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Lewis played a ton of SS for the Twins in 2020 ST. He hit well too. I don't see any reason why the Twins don't view him as a SS. It's only other sites/writers who have said he might end up in the OF.  

It seems that Lewis has the tools to be a good defensive SS. Some people aren't cut out for it though, although most every infielder that plays professionally started as a shortstop, even Sanó. 

I would agree that he probably will start in the minors, perhaps at Wichita, next year. It is going to take some time to get up to full speed. 

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3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is this a lineup for 2022 or 2023, for 2022 it seems like hope for a miracle or just a rebuilding plan.  For 2023 and beyond seems like it could be a really good plan as long as they have a good contingency plan.

Starting a season relying on 5 rookies (Lewis, Miranda, Martin, Larnach, AK), plus half a starting rotation could be a crazy awesome decision, or absolutely fire-able offense.

I can't see this FO, putting their jobs on the line for a guy that hasn't played in two years, a guy they just traded for, Miranda after one great year, one injury plague (super star potential), an outfielder that started well last year, but never really turned it around, and a bunch of pitchers that weren't healthy this year.

 

 

Kirilloff and Larnach aren't rookies. I do agree that relying on five guys with less than a year's big league experience makes no sense until you're the '82 Twins or the Orioles, Pirates, or D-backs.

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I don't think the Twins have anyone in the minors who projects to be an asset at SS. In addition to the questions about Lewis' defense, he's shown no ability to hit at a level that should get anyone excited.

 

And there's no reason to think he'll be ready in 2022.

 

They need to go outside the organization to fill this position.

 

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3 hours ago, Wax off said:

I think he's a below average defender.

That's a big "if" he stays healthy, his knees are suspect. What "if" the '20-21 Arraez is what you get, most teams have multiple better second baseman.

Yeah, but with some regular time at a regular position that might improve as well.  You'll take that from a guy who can be a 113+ OPS player.  

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35 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Still developing, maybe--although he's gotten worse each of the past two years since 2019--but a .777 OPS is not a "really damn good MLB hitter."

Well, I wonder what your opinion of Ichiro Suzuki is, owner of a career .757 OPS. While he was more around .780 to .820 in the prime of his career, I think OPS undervalues hitters who usually end up on 1B more often than not.

It would be nice if Arraez had a defensive home... I think he can handle 2B just ifne, but that is rightly Polanco's spot.

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8 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yeah, but with some regular time at a regular position that might improve as well.  You'll take that from a guy who can be a 113+ OPS player.  

Maybe, but he's mostly played 2B in his career, right? He probably won't get better there. His bat is the reason you put up with his defense, but his OPS has been in decline since his rookie season.

On top of that, he's got an injury history. These are reasons why I don't think teams are going to trade anything good for him.

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1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think the Twins have anyone in the minors who projects to be an asset at SS. In addition to the questions about Lewis' defense, he's shown no ability to hit at a level that should get anyone excited.

 

And there's no reason to think he'll be ready in 2022.

 

They need to go outside the organization to fill this position.

 

If that is the case about Lewis, ranking him as our best or second best prospect is depressing...Does Lewis project as a top 200 minor leaguer or top 300? We probably need to change or update the 2022 handbook. 

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Is there an eyes wide open, objective assessment of Miranda's defense at 3rd? Before buckets and buckets of more virtual ink are spilled considering these dilemmas, it would be good to know if Miranda can actually play a legit major league 3rd base. It seems like below average fielders get described as average until they make it to the major leagues and play 50 games and then they start getting called liabilities.

I I guess what I'm saying is Please don't tell me he's adequate if he he's below average. 

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8 minutes ago, Eephus said:

I guess what I'm saying is Please don't tell me he's adequate if he he's below average. 

That's what scouts mean, when they term a defender "adequate." :)

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3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Still developing, maybe--although he's gotten worse each of the past two years since 2019--but a .777 OPS is not a "really damn good MLB hitter."

He is a Banjo hitter, with bad knees, and only plays fairly well at Second Base where Polanco is simply better on offense and defense.

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3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Still developing, maybe--although he's gotten worse each of the past two years since 2019--but a .777 OPS is not a "really damn good MLB hitter."

I am not sure I could disagree with you more.  I recognize that 3 years is only a brief snapshot, and cannot be put up against a 21 year career, but Paul Molitor's stats totaled .306/.369/.817.  Rod Carew's numbers were .328/.393/.822.  Arreaz falls between the two in everything but the OPS, and theirs were from an extraordinary number of triples throughout their careers, not HR's.  Is it the word really that is the sticking point?  Would it be better if one were to say he is a pretty damn good MLB hitter?  Because he is.  He also only strikes out approx. 9% of his plate appearances, and that in and of itself is an accomplishment today.  

I will meet you half way; how about he is really a pretty damn good MLB hitter.  

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Twins have a long history of getting guys to the big leagues and deciding they need to play a different position.  Often making a less than spectacular choice.  Danny Santana came up as a SS and they promptly decided he was an OF.  Affected his bat and he was never the same player.  Eddie Rosario was a 2B playing OF.  Remember when they tried to make a certain slugging IF an OF?  Oops.    Luis Arraez is basically a singles hitting DH that they've tried to shoehorn into a number of defensive positions.  Leave Lewis at SS

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15 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is this a lineup for 2022 or 2023, for 2022 it seems like hope for a miracle or just a rebuilding plan.  For 2023 and beyond seems like it could be a really good plan as long as they have a good contingency plan.

Starting a season relying on 5 rookies (Lewis, Miranda, Martin, Larnach, AK), plus half a starting rotation could be a crazy awesome decision, or absolutely fire-able offense.

I can't see this FO, putting their jobs on the line for a guy that hasn't played in two years, a guy they just traded for, Miranda after one great year, one injury plague (super star potential), an outfielder that started well last year, but never really turned it around, and a bunch of pitchers that weren't healthy this year.

 

 

Yes.  By that I mean it is a plan to work into during the 2022 season with a 100% commitment to it in 2023.  So no, it isn't what you would run out there on opening day 2022.

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15 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Still developing, maybe--although he's gotten worse each of the past two years since 2019--but a .777 OPS is not a "really damn good MLB hitter."

I like the part where you completely ignored the .313. avg / .374 obp ... that was a nice touch.

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12 hours ago, RpR said:

He is a Banjo hitter, with bad knees, and only plays fairly well at Second Base where Polanco is simply better on offense and defense.

a banjo hitter ? what the hell is that hahaha .. are guys that put the ball in play with a .313 / .374 all of a sudden players you don't want in the lineup? 

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15 hours ago, Danchat said:

Well, I wonder what your opinion of Ichiro Suzuki is, owner of a career .757 OPS. While he was more around .780 to .820 in the prime of his career, I think OPS undervalues hitters who usually end up on 1B more often than not.

It would be nice if Arraez had a defensive home... I think he can handle 2B just ifne, but that is rightly Polanco's spot.

Thank you dan .. I really have hard time understanding how his value is lost just because he doesn't hit for power. The man is an absolutely fantastic MLB hitter and there really isn't much debate for it.

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