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7 step plan for offseason


4twinsJA
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Here is my 7 step plan for Twins this offseason. 1) Extend Buxton. 2)Acquire top of rotation starting pitcher. 3) Acquire closer. 4)Acquire shortstop. 5) Acquire mid-rotation starting pitcher. 6) Acquire second bullpen arm. 7) Trade Donaldson. These 7 steps would be fill the biggest needs for Twins, some of these steps may need to be done by trade. Intentionally short on specifics, I feel these are the priorities for the Twins in offseason. 

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Besides NOT bringing back ANY of the impending free agents, the Twins need to hard-address the future in the organization (according to their current needs) of Donaldson, Sano and Garver. All three have some value as bats, especially if the DH happens in the National League. Is Garver still the primary body behind-the-plate, or a future 1B/DH, and how does he really project withy that position move. Sano, in the right ballpark, could be a hammer. Donaldson still has worth. He is consistent if he plays the field.

 

Yes, the Twins need to sign a bonifide closer. Quit having setup guys pitch the last inning. Alcala could be a possibility, but NOT yet. I hope Joe Ryan does work in the rotation, otherwise he has the stuff to be a lights out closer if he only needs to face 3-5 batters.

 

If the Twins sign a shortstop of any contract length, then they seriously have to address the need/position for both Martin and Lewis. Couple that with the need to extend Buxton (or not)...that is another decision that has to be fuilly addressed in the off-season so you know where you are going.

 

Sadly so many prospects lost a year of their lives sitting out 2020. 2022 will be the chance to stock the two upper levels with the guys you NEED to give the chance to shine and stay a part of the organization. Minimalize the minors free agent and concentrate on the talent you want that you have developed. If you need to stock the minors, go with the new system where you draw from the short-season play leagues. I think we will see a lot of guys in the non-tendered class or arbitration this season. Might be one or two gems. And we will see - because of the lost 2020 - an huge amount of players deciding to pursue pro-ball, or calling it quits as minor league free agents will be jockeying for a job, any job. But, still, they NEED to come secondary to your own development program.

 

I wish the Twins could afford to blow away a top-notch starter, but they won't even come close to doling out the type of money that even Jose Berrios will command in 2023. Instead, they have to look to trade. If they trade, then they can spend the free agent money elsewhere, on that shortstop everyone wants them to have (shades of what to do with Arraez then), or a bullpen arm. Speaking of Arraez, he ahs to be a tradechip. Too bad there really aren't other names on the roster, except for perhaps Buxton. I do so wish other teams will see value in Sano, Donaldson and Garver. 

 

 

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You absolutely are on the right track. The one factor you might be overlooking is the cash aspect. Twins ownership has been great over the past several years - essentially going all in from 2019-2021 in an attempt to gain the WS.  They’ve likely lost over $100MM since the pandemic began. We should not expect, nor demand, that they replicate that strategy given the current state of the roster. 
 

So, with that in mind:

1) Yes, 100% top priority.

2) Not happening if a FA and unlikely to happen via a trade.

3) & 6) Yes, at least two, maybe three, elite BP arms will be needed to support our young rotation, ideally one is late inning reliable.

4) Yes, as Lewis realistically might not be fully ready until well into 2023 and no one else in the organization projects as a pure SS at the moment (we wish Austin Martin did, but he doesn’t).

5) Yes to Big Mike.

7) Yes, 100% - Josh for sure, and maybe Max too, to help pay for it all. Those two together (and I think we could get close to full value for Josh) plus Nelson Cruz are over $40MM. That should pay for Buxton, a SS and at least two top quality relievers.

So I essentially agree on everything except the top of the rotation FA or acquisition. If we could get that done “economically” (i.e. in cash or trade capital) then you have nailed the post season plan.
 

 

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I see the Twins resigning Pineda, and trading for or signing another starting pitcher.  I do not see the Twins trading Donaldson.  I hope the Twins sign Buxton to an extension this offseason.  I will be ok if they don't only if they sign a top tier SS to a major league contract.  Though they could sign Taylor to a contract to play SS and when one of Lewis or Martin is ready Taylor can shift to utility player. The Twins have several redundant players available to trade.  If the Twins sign Chris Taylor they could trade Arraez, you have Sano, Larnarch, Rooker, maybe Kepler.  I here Garvers name come up but I think that would be a mistake.  He is a real good hitter and why would we give him up when we just need 1 pitcher and we have so many trade options or could sign someone.  In the bullpen it would be nice to sign a lockdown reliever.  I wonder how much Kimbrel will cost?  I think we have lots of middle reliever options.  I also wonder what it will take to extend Rogers and Duffey and if we should?

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17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Ok. Fine. How are you going to accomplish each of these moves and who exactly, more or less, are the players? I'm interested to know the details and ideas.

Isn't accomplishing these goals the job of the front office?  Although I would take a late inning reliever who doesn't have to close and don't see the need for a shortstop, like the other 5 steps.

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If you are just going to throw out off-season goals without any pathway to achieving them, why not set your sights higher?  How about: just sign Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard as starters, Javier Biez, Freddie Freeman, and Carlos Correa to strengthen the infield, Chris Taylor and Sterling Marte as utility players.  Okay, front office, now go get it done.  Oh wait!!  Get three of four outstanding relief pitchers while you're out shopping.  And pick up a Snickers Bar for me.  Easy - Peasey.

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Thanks for discussion, valid points about economics of additions. #1 and 7 connected-using money saved trading Donaldson to help pay Buxton rest mostly on pitching. 2 and 5 starting pitching is difficult as has been shown in past with Wheeler even if Twins offer enough money FAs may not want to come to Twins. I am projecting Ray and Gray, neither is a #1 SP, but like potential rotation of Ray, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Dobnak to start year. #3 and 6, again probably not going to get top targets maybe Graveman and Lorenzen. This won't leave enough money to go after Story/Seager as SS, maybe Iglesias as 1 year option. Looking forward to handbook coming out so can put potential numbers on FAs.

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You are right on. Twins can pick  from the following names? Stroman, gausman, Duffy, kluber, smyly,.     Syndergard, matz. Pick two. Then look into brad hand, knebel, and others. We need to compete for top players. For more than just one reason. Mostly to force the top teams to pay more against offer sheets. Leaving other free agents exposed.

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This thread's purpose isn't to solve all of of FO problems, only to start a list of goals that needs to be addressed. I agree with 4TwinsJA's list except the last goal of trading Donaldson. It'd be nice to be w/o his salary but it'd be too hard to trade him and it'd be nice to have him around to mentor Miranda until he's ready.

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They lose Cruz's salary, Berrios last arb salary, and assorted FA/non-tendered players with total savings of well over $30M.

They need to sign Buxton.  If not, get a haul for him and pray he doesn't turn into Willie Mays for some other team.

I like the idea of trading with the Marlins for some of their SP depth.  Young and talented players there.

I am neutral on trading Kepler.  He is earning his contract, but not exceeding it, and we have other corner OF prospects deserving opportunities to play.

Donaldson is also earning his contract.  So unless a trade offer brings real value, he should be kept at 3rd.

Chris Taylor seems like a total gamer.  Not sure on his defensive metrics at SS, or whether he is capable of playing there FT.

This will be a very interesting off-season, starting with the CBA negotiations which could lead to major changes.

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On 10/17/2021 at 3:29 PM, Doctor Gast said:

This thread's purpose isn't to solve all of of FO problems, only to start a list of goals that needs to be addressed. I agree with 4TwinsJA's list except the last goal of trading Donaldson. It'd be nice to be w/o his salary but it'd be too hard to trade him and it'd be nice to have him around to mentor Miranda until he's ready.

Plans without any details might have absolutely no ability to be executed.  I have a one step plan: "Stink less at baseballing"

I can't wait for the GM offers to roll in....

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