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7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Our surplus has the least value on the trade market.  Look at Cron - he outhits all those we list and yet has bounced around year after year.

Crown played in Denver last year. When checking numbers see what Cron hit for on the road. You won’t be crowing about the hitting, He only played a few games in Detroit

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1 hour ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

I'm not outwardly excited about trading anybody if I'm Falvine. The cost associated with everyone is very, very high, and my price tag for Buxton is just this side of certifiably crazy. But I'm definitely listening intently on just about everyone.

It's not overly likely that Polanco has another season like this last one, and I don't want to have to pay for past performance if I'm negotiating his next deal. But, at the same time, a guy who plays solid 2B and swats 25 homers while batting in the .280-.300 range is still awfully nice to have next year. If someone blows me away, I'm going to think really hard about it.

I'm not quite sure about Arraez after this past season. He could be that guy who comes into Spring Training healthy and serves as a .330+ hitting leadoff guy next year, but he could also be a good hitter with mediocre defense everywhere. I want to believe, so my price tag for him is higher than that of Polanco.

I like the swagger that Donaldson brings to the team, and I want my young guys to cut their teeth in the majors around a guy like him. I'm paying a lot for his services, but on the other hand he showed unexpectedly good durability and was a big part of the offense this year. I'd especially love for Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis to get plenty of exposure to him, but how do I manage that while still getting the kids into the lineup on a regular basis? In the end, I'm probably most likely to trade him this winter but not without several gut checks first.

Buxton is going to have to personally insult my mother to her face for me to even think about backing away from contract negotiations. Yeah he's hurt a lot, but on the other hand when he's healthy he's arguably the best player in the league. My asking price gets my rival GMs to hang up on me several times this winter.

I really don't want to move on from Kepler either, especially since his defense gives me a lot of roster flexibility for those times when Buxton is hurt. He's a guy that, if he begins sitting back on pitches more often, he might start beating the shift and put up video game numbers for a good long time. I don't want to be the FO that traded him away right before he does that. On the other hand, I think Trevor Larnach is an all-star right fielder before his contract is up, and I want to show ownership that I was right to pick him. My price for Kepler is almost as high as it is for Buxton.

I like Garver. He's among the better hitting players in the league when healthy, and he's elite at the plate compared to the rest of the league's catchers. But, on the other hand, he's also on the wrong side of thirty and his situational hitting was pretty poor last year. And while I really like Jeffers, too, I'm not sure I want to risk the offensive drop-off that will happen when he eventually takes over for Garver just yet. I know that I'm likely to get a ridiculous haul for Garver if I were to move him this winter, so I probably do mention his name more often than the rest but also set his price tag just this side of what I'm asking for Buxton and Kepler.

Other than the there are less home runs, how is Polamco’s  2019 season any less than 2021?  There are no reasons to think his 2021 season is a fluke other than inmate pessimism 

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14 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Ted, good list but you left off Josh. He’s the number #1 person I’d move. 
 

I get that he actually had a pretty good year - particularly in the late 2nd half when the season was already lost.  He’s a good, actually very good, baseball player both at the plate and in the field if healthy (which has been fairly unreliable). He’s a veteran presence as well (but has that really translated in the dugout and the clubhouse though?). He very well may be worth his $20+MM. But not to us - not at this time.
 

Josh is a declining asset taking up valuable cash and real estate on a mid market team that has lost lots of money over the past couple of years and has a strong emerging player ready to take his spot.
 

Signing him was a great bet at the time. It made tremendous sense for a team willing to go all in. But that window has passed. Let me repeat that for all of us fans who think 2021 was just some sort of an aberration. That window has passed.  The Twins exiting 2021 are not in the same position as the Twins heading into 2019. 

Josh’s late season play will contribute to getting a better deal for him from a team looking for that key piece. Even more likely if the NL adopts the DH. If all the analytics guys on this site are correct, then there should be takers at full value for Josh’s WAR. 
 

Resigning Buxton, signing a SS, and adding pitching (targeting the BP and maybe Big Mike) are simply better uses of that cash at this point in time for the Twins. Give Miranda and Luis the 3B innings and turn over the veteran leadership to Buxton. 
 

BTW, I’d move Kepler as well……

Nashville, Excellent . Your analysis makes perfect sense to me. Thank you.

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To get better fast, the Twins will have to move a couple of players who had good seasons in 2021 (and thus high value). The next consideration is if they are replaceable from within. Polanco and Garver meet those criteria (also perhaps Donaldson). Those are the players to move and get a big return.

Arraez would seem to be replaceable as well. He will hit and I don't think his defense is poor. Miranda plays the same positions as Arraez and offers some power potential.

My final thought on this topic is in reference to Alex Kirilloff. I do think he will become an All-Star and he might win batting championships. However, he only had a couple hundred plate appearances and he's been dogged by a bad wrist. I think the injury problems take away from labeling him a sure thing and writing his name in the proposed starting lineup in ink. As a first baseman/corner outfielder he has to hit well above average to be a star. I think there's a chance of that, but I don't think we have any guarantees. 

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9 hours ago, Tim said:

I'd really want to hear your rational for trading a former no. 1 pick and top 20 prospect in all of baseball, who missed an entire year with a torn ACL, right now .. I mean you'd be selling at the absolute lowest value. As for Martin, they just traded their "ace pitcher" for him 3 months ago., they clearing see him as apart of their future plans.

I am not advocating their trade, just assessing trade value and they are the most valuable non-pitchers we have.  Young, under control, middle diamond positions.  DH/1B/LF/RF are not positions of high value.  So how much do we want to get a really good pitcher?

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6 hours ago, old nurse said:

Crown played in Denver last year. When checking numbers see what Cron hit for on the road. You won’t be crowing about the hitting, He only played a few games in Detroit

I am not pushing for him, just using him as an example of how easy it is for teams to fill the corners in the OF, DH, and 1B.  That is why their value is so low.   However, before you knock C. J.  - he had a 3.4 WAR last year.   Only Buxton and Polanco had more for the Twins. 

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17 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am not advocating their trade, just assessing trade value and they are the most valuable non-pitchers we have.  Young, under control, middle diamond positions.  DH/1B/LF/RF are not positions of high value.  So how much do we want to get a really good pitcher?

They had a really good pitcher in Berrios whom they traded for Martin. You're not gonna get a pitcher near as good as Berrios back for Martin. If they wanted a really good pitcher instead of Martin then they should've paid Berrios.

Royce Lewis is at an all time low in value, so he's not even close to getting anyone "really good" back. Trading him now would selling really low, the return would be very much lower than what you're suggesting.

You ask "how much do they want to get a really good pitcher?" But you gave two examples who wouldn't come close to accomplishing that, especially Lewis. Buxton and Polanco are the only players who could bring a solid pitcher back and probably only Buxton could get you something "really good".

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Kepler:  His value has never been lower.  He's worth more to the Twins to keep at this point and try to work with his hitting approach and improve his offense.  I trade Larnach instead who has more "value" but may never be a better "player" than Kepler.

Garver:  His offense looks like it's back.  I keep him, and trade Jeffers instead, whose "value" is higher than Garver's anyway and would bring back better pitching in a deal.  I go out and sign a Jason Castro type and let Rortvedt continue to develop at AAA.

Sano:  I have been advocating trading Sano for 2 years.  That said, he's another negative trade asset.  Unless the DH coming to the N.L. greatly improves his value, the Twins are better off sticking with him for one more year if they bat him #7 in the lineup and move him between DH and 1B.  If he shows signs of coming around in 2022 you could deal him at the deadline or simply buy him out at seasons end and move on.  It depends which Sano you get in 2022...1st half 2021 ?  Or second half 2021 ?

Arraez:  One of my favorite Twins.  But one of our PRIME candidates to be traded for pitching.  Polanco is a far superior 2B-man who could play a game or two at SS if need be.  Arraez is 2B, 3B and LF.  We have LOTS of other options at those positions.  TRADED for PITCHING.

Donaldson:  He had a pretty good year but again, is a negative trade asset.  he's worth more to the Twins than shedding his salary.  Josh could always be moved at the deadline as well.  it will depend on how 2022 is going for the Twins and Josh as well.

I think the Twins can certainly compete in the ho-hum A.L. Central in 2022, so I keep Rogers and Duffey.  RP's are always more valuable to acquire at the deadline any way, so hang onto them, see how 2022 is going and make decisions at the deadline.

Buxton:  Gotta sign him.  PERIOD.

Some of our minor league talent:  Some of these guys...Duran, Canterino, Winder, others, need to be considered in deals to bring talent that is closer to the majors than they are.  

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11 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

You didn’t ask me but I’ll chime in. You’re describing Lewis at his peak value as a prospect. That is no longer the case. He will not be ranked as a top 20 prospect coming up in 2022. And there is no guarantee he will be a top 20 ranked prospect again. 

They have a couple of options right now. Trade him while he is still a prospect. We missed his peak value as a #1 overall pick and top 20 ranked prospect to acquire MLB veterans. Or, we keep him under the control years determined by the new CBA. I am on team #TradeLewis bandwagon. 

I literally acknowledge that his value is at his absolute lowest. It goes with out saying he won’t be ranked that high to begin next year.

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On 10/8/2021 at 12:14 PM, DJL44 said:

Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey are prime trade bait. One year of team control remaining.

These two are arms that make sense, but that probably takes out any chance at competitiveness if you're dealing from a deficiency.

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2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am not pushing for him, just using him as an example of how easy it is for teams to fill the corners in the OF, DH, and 1B.  That is why their value is so low.   However, before you knock C. J.  - he had a 3.4 WAR last year.   Only Buxton and Polanco had more for the Twins. 

It is not easy to find a 3 fear corner outfielder 1B DH player. There were only 22 of them last year for 105 positions.  Cron was 2.3 fear. There were 62 of them. That still leaves plenty of positions open. The value of any of the Twins prospects or players is what their ceiling is and can they get there. 

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3 hours ago, Wax off said:

They had a really good pitcher in Berrios whom they traded for Martin. You're not gonna get a pitcher near as good as Berrios back for Martin. If they wanted a really good pitcher instead of Martin then they should've paid Berrios.

Royce Lewis is at an all time low in value, so he's not even close to getting anyone "really good" back. Trading him now would selling really low, the return would be very much lower than what you're suggesting.

You ask "how much do they want to get a really good pitcher?" But you gave two examples who wouldn't come close to accomplishing that, especially Lewis. Buxton and Polanco are the only players who could bring a solid pitcher back and probably only Buxton could get you something "really good".

True, but if I was a pitcher I would not come to the Twins if they are absent Polanco and/or Buxton. 

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Some of this depends on how they're going after 2022.  If they're trying to remain competitive, then I'm shopping Arraez for sure.  I'm not opposed to shopping Kepler and Sano, but prefer to keep them.  Kirilloff should be the 1B and Sano the DH.  I think Garver needs to be kept at this point.  Jeffers isn't ready to carry the load.  And as @chpettit19pointed out, what's the minor league depth there?

If they're rebuilding next season, I probably try to trade them all.

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22 hours ago, stringer bell said:

To get better fast, the Twins will have to move a couple of players who had good seasons in 2021 (and thus high value). The next consideration is if they are replaceable from within. Polanco and Garver meet those criteria (also perhaps Donaldson). Those are the players to move and get a big return.

Arraez would seem to be replaceable as well. He will hit and I don't think his defense is poor. Miranda plays the same positions as Arraez and offers some power potential.

My final thought on this topic is in reference to Alex Kirilloff. I do think he will become an All-Star and he might win batting championships. However, he only had a couple hundred plate appearances and he's been dogged by a bad wrist. I think the injury problems take away from labeling him a sure thing and writing his name in the proposed starting lineup in ink. As a first baseman/corner outfielder he has to hit well above average to be a star. I think there's a chance of that, but I don't think we have any guarantees. 

Trading two of your best position players is not a good formula for getting better fast if "fast" means next year.  Trading Polanco and Garver would be moves to rebuild for 2-4 years from now.  They would need to trade top prospects to get better next year.  Trading Lewis / Miranda / Martin or top pitching prospects is the most likely trade formula for getting better next year.

I seriously doubt they trade any of those position players.  We are very lean in up the middle position players.  Lewis and Martin are the only two up the middle position player prospects with a high ceiling on the horizon.  It could be argued that Miranda is  our best position player prospect.  He is a very logical transition from Donaldson and he has some position flexibility.  I just don't see them moving any of these players.

Of course, we could trade pitching prospects.  We finally have enough prospective pitching  to believe they can build a rotation from within.  Do they want to give that up now?  It would be one thing if we were a player or two away from seriously contending but that is not the case.  Any team can get better fast if they are willing to trade future wins for immediate wins.  However, there is often a premium associated with getting better immediately.  I don't see them paying that premium now.  

They can put a good product on the field next year without leveraging the future.  Get Kirilloff and Rogers back, add a good SS and even one "Stroman / Rodon" type SP and the team that was a game above 500 after the deadline is a pretty darn good team.

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So it seems there is agreement that keeping the team's roster static is not an option, but there are many variations of how to add and subtract for next year. In my opinion, management has to decide on Byron Buxton as soon as possible. The Twins need pitching pretty badly. I'm thinking two trades and at least one free agent for the starting staff and a couple of relief pitchers as well. In order to accomplish a goal of rebuilding for next year as Falvey has stated every Twin in their system is available to be traded. A few Twins could be wearing new threads next year. I don't believe there is an untouchable player in the system.

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Garver is fairly old and has a troubling durability history.  His bat is good enough that I think he's the prize piece to move.  You'll get a really good arm for him IMO and that's worth more than being three deep at catcher.  Toss a contract at a career backup instead.

If you want to get something you've got to give something.  This team won't reverse fortunes on free agency alone.

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4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

If you want to get something you've got to give something.  This team won't reverse fortunes on free agency alone.

This is the exact truth. I was happy to see the Twins get Odorizzi, but it doesn't seem to be the best strategy to hope for good luck. The Twins need to be aggressive and perhaps even overpay if they want strong pitchers in a trade or free agency. Buxton would be the only huge loss and he has missed so many games it can be argued that the team already plays without him. The Twins should sign Buxton and Polanco is the team's MVP and Donaldson has a big contract, but any move that makes the team better needs to be completed. Trades will determine whether the Twins can turn the corner because they do not have enough right now. 

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Cruz had a wRC+ of 96 the 2nd half of the season.  One year guys can help keep it interesting but we need to be looking for players that can contribute to sustained success.   The long-term success of this team is tied to pitching prospects.  

Eliminating ABs for Simmons and Cave will sure help the entertainment value of this club for me.  Watching those ABs was painful.  Sign Michael Taylor.  He could play SS or OF.

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12 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Trading two of your best position players is not a good formula for getting better fast if "fast" means next year.  Trading Polanco and Garver would be moves to rebuild for 2-4 years from now.  

I don't think anyone is suggesting moving both Garver and Polanco, I certainly wasn't. What I did say that both players held enough value to get a good return, perhaps enough to give the chance to contend next year, if a lot of other things go right. 

I looked back at my original post on this topic and it could be interpreted that " a couple of players" were both Polanco and Garver. I didn't intend to infer that. To me, trading a replaceable regular coming off a good year and signing the right free agents along with a lot of other things going right might be enough to get back to contention. 

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I would expect that when you finish last and serious about being competitive that everyone is tradable for the right deal, whatever that is.  I love buxton but it's always amusing how people brush away his injuries and massive amount of games missed.  Then say if he wasn't injured he may be the best player in the league.  How will we ever know?  I hope they sign him and think they will.  However let's not make him out more than he is.  He's a great defensive center fielder with a career 7 year batting average of .248.  He showed glimpses of greatness this year when he wasn't missing 100 games again.

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