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What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?


Ted Schwerzler
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Glad to see pretty much no one here is remotely considering trading Buxton. Some press articles still seem to float the idea that he could be traded for pitching. That would make absolutely zero sense. You never trade a super-star position playerwho goes out there everyday, for someone that starts every 5th day and expect to get full value. Yes, Buck has certainly been injury prone. But you will never replace his value by trading for pitching with one team. Thats a bigger risk than hoping we can get 120-130 games from Buxton in 2022.  He is the centerpiece of our offense (and defense and everything else for that matter). Twins should quickly extend him at seasons end and be done with it. Then figure out how to get a pitcher or two. (and that won't be easy).

I'd give Donaldson another year..unless somehow he could be parlayed into an arm or two..which I also doubt. Sano and Kepler could be traded. Arraez slipped badly 2nd half, but I wouldn't be too quick to give up on his talents.  Larnach and Rooker have yet to prove themselves. Ditto Celestino. They will have to earn their spots. Don't know what the plan(s) would be for Gordon. Do the Twins like him? Enough to keep him?  Clearly pitching is the problem, but trading away valuable position players to take a risk on ANY starting pitcher will always be fraught with peril. I don't envy the FO. They say they want to compete in 2022. I'd like that too. We have seen how quickly a team can go from first to last and vice-versa in just one season. So a big huge rebuild certainly is not necessary.

This season was definitely a mess no one really expected. But its fixable.

Anyone think Nellie will hang 'em up after this season? He was 'OK' with Tampa, but not extraordinary. He will be 42. I doubt the Rays re-sign him. I doubt the Twins are interested. Some NL team take a flyer on him if they approve the DH. If he does retire, would one of his former teams agree to sign him for the symbolic 'one day' so he could retire in that uniform and maybe sign on for other duties?

 

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32 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Glad to see pretty much no one here is remotely considering trading Buxton. Some press articles still seem to float the idea that he could be traded for pitching. That would make absolutely zero sense. You never trade a super-star position playerwho goes out there everyday, for someone that starts every 5th day and expect to get full value. Yes, Buck has certainly been injury prone. But you will never replace his value by trading for pitching with one team. Thats a bigger risk than hoping we can get 120-130 games from Buxton in 2022.  He is the centerpiece of our offense (and defense and everything else for that matter). Twins should quickly extend him at seasons end and be done with it. Then figure out how to get a pitcher or two. (and that won't be easy).

I'd give Donaldson another year..unless somehow he could be parlayed into an arm or two..which I also doubt. Sano and Kepler could be traded. Arraez slipped badly 2nd half, but I wouldn't be too quick to give up on his talents.  Larnach and Rooker have yet to prove themselves. Ditto Celestino. They will have to earn their spots. Don't know what the plan(s) would be for Gordon. Do the Twins like him? Enough to keep him?  Clearly pitching is the problem, but trading away valuable position players to take a risk on ANY starting pitcher will always be fraught with peril. I don't envy the FO. They say they want to compete in 2022. I'd like that too. We have seen how quickly a team can go from first to last and vice-versa in just one season. So a big huge rebuild certainly is not necessary.

This season was definitely a mess no one really expected. But its fixable.

Anyone think Nellie will hang 'em up after this season? He was 'OK' with Tampa, but not extraordinary. He will be 42. I doubt the Rays re-sign him. I doubt the Twins are interested. Some NL team take a flyer on him if they approve the DH. If he does retire, would one of his former teams agree to sign him for the symbolic 'one day' so he could retire in that uniform and maybe sign on for other duties?

 

I would be completely fine with trading Buxton, so long as the package is right.  In my mind, that only happens if it's part of a bigger deal, with my pipe dream being the below;

Padres get--Buxton, Rogers, Garver, Ober, and Barnes

Twins get--Abrams, Hassell, Gore, and take back Wil Myer's salary

 

The Padres manage to add some star power to their lineup and bullpen, without increasing their payroll (or if they do, barely), and add two backend options to their rotation, which is what let them down this year.

The Twins add two premium position player prospects, which will allow them to turn around and use Lewis, Martin, Miranda, Arraez, Larnach et al for trade bait for pitching to further buttress a system which could be the best in baseball next year.  While this would absolutely mean the Twins are punting on 2022, a lineup in 2023 with some combo of Abrams, Polanco, Martin, Miranda, Kiriloff, Jeffers, Arraez, Larnach, Celestino is intirguing, and would be cheap enough to allow the Twins to invest heavily in starting pitching on the FA market.

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Sign a SS, start Larnach at AAA again to gain some confidence, trade Sano if possible and Arraez and Miranda can be Utility guys rotating through1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF and DH. Play match-ups as much as possible to help. Much more flexibility than Cave and Astudillo give, though I can see the team somehow trying to keep both on the roster.

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3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I would be completely fine with trading Buxton, so long as the package is right.  In my mind, that only happens if it's part of a bigger deal, with my pipe dream being the below;

Padres get--Buxton, Rogers, Garver, Ober, and Barnes

Twins get--Abrams, Hassell, Gore, and take back Wil Myer's salary

 

The Padres manage to add some star power to their lineup and bullpen, without increasing their payroll (or if they do, barely), and add two backend options to their rotation, which is what let them down this year.

The Twins add two premium position player prospects, which will allow them to turn around and use Lewis, Martin, Miranda, Arraez, Larnach et al for trade bait for pitching to further buttress a system which could be the best in baseball next year.  While this would absolutely mean the Twins are punting on 2022, a lineup in 2023 with some combo of Abrams, Polanco, Martin, Miranda, Kiriloff, Jeffers, Arraez, Larnach, Celestino is intirguing, and would be cheap enough to allow the Twins to invest heavily in starting pitching on the FA market.

I don't think I'd do that trade. I think the Twins would be giving up too much AND they would be throwing in the towel for 2022...which I am really against...and I think the FO is too. Is it unrealistic to think Twins can contend next year? Not all with some tweaking. We really need to keep our biggest draw and largest talent.

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Did we not learn anything this season when it comes to line up and injuries?

 

throw out whatever opening day lineup we think we need or want.  Guys get injured, guys don’t play well.  Miranda is a utility guy in he can play multiple infield positions and LF.  If he doesn’t make the opening day line up he will likely get his chance before the end of April. 
 

Twins need depth everywhere and a guy with option years left who can come up and fill in at multiple positions as an everyday player is a must.  
 

don’t give away solid guys who had good second half’s just because a guy had a good yr at AAA

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After reading some of the other posts here, I felt the need to add to my previous one.

We won the central twice with Polanco at SS, and give me all the numbers and metrics you want but my eye said he wasn't the disaster some say he was there. But he's just so much better at 2B and continues to grow. Its also easier on his ankles and the last thing we need is to take an absolute stud at a position an move him somewhere where he is less effective and could put greater strain on his ankles.

High Heat summed up the lineup rather succinctly; guys get hurt and your initial lineup/roster construction will vary throughout the year. It's a GOOD THING to have more talent than roster spots! Your 13 man player roster will need to be expanded out to about 18-20 guys before the season is done. And the "problem" the Twins have offensively is not really MORE offense, just better health and more CONSISTENCY.

C] Garver/Jeffers with Rortvedt at AAA. (Astudillo if around). Garver also takes turns at DH to keep his bat in the lineup.

1B] Kirilloff/Sano/Miranda/Astudillo/maybe some Garver: AK can still play the OF and Sano can DH

2B] Polanco/Arraez/Gordon/Miranda

SS] FA/Polanco/Gordon (need a good glove at AAA just in case)

3B] Donaldson/Miranda/Arraez/Astudillo/Gordon 

LF] Larnach/Arraez/Kirilloff/4th OF TBD/Rooker/Gordon/maybe Miranda/Celestino

CF] Buxton/Kepler/Gordon/maybe 4th OF TBD/Celestino

RF] Kepler/Larnach/4th OF TBD/AK/Gordon/Celestino

DH] Donaldson/Sano/Arraez/Garver

Unless I just forgot how to count, that's 19 guys for 13 spots and depth. Rortvedt and Celestino and probably Rooker begin the year in St Paul. (IMO, Rooker is protected over Refsnyder and Garlik each of whom I'd love back on a milb deal). My roster includes a FA SS TBD, as well as a RH 4th OF who may or may not be a CF option, (I hope he is). I've been banging tbat drum for some time now and will continue to do so. It's very possible the Twins will look for a proven corner option allowing Kepler and Gordon to be the backups. Further, they could just blow off my opinion all together, LOL, and stick with the RH options already on hand. But you see how easily the numbers work out for the roster and depth, right?

And YES, I'm including Astudillo for now. I fully recognise he might not be protected due to the numbers game. And if NOT protected, I would also love to have him back on a milb deal. IMO, left unprotected, someone would try to sign him for his versatility and his intangibles. I also think he'd rather stick with the Twins on a milb deal, maybe a split deal, vs going elsewhere. 

The whole point is, there is a lot of talent available here to have a good roster for 2022, albeit a couple young guys still proving themselves and fitting in. Larnach is a perfect example. He is just so close to proving he's ready, but might not break camp. And let's use AK as a comp for Miranda for 2022. For whatever reason, Kirilloff just had a lousy ST even though be was virtually handed a job. So he went down. He sure looked ready a month later and rocked it before a 2nd wrist injury curtailed his year. I believe in Miranda, like AK, 100%. But does he have to be handed a job? No. Again, having too much talent and depth is a GOOD THING.

And to further repeat myself, I am NOT saying the Twins shouldn't/can't/won't trade someone off the roster for pitching help. But if they bring back Pineda, which I believe they will, they ABSOLUTELY have the $ available to bring in Stoman to front the rotation for the next 3-5yrs. And he's durable enough, proven enough, and been tied to the Twins for a couple of years now. Makes so much sense it's scary. That leaves ONE rotation spot to be filled via FA or trade. But when I have seen how "little" the FO spent to bring in Odorizzi and Maeda, I have to question whether we actually have to disrupt the ML roster to do so.

I'd like to keep the roster as intact as possible. Miranda WILL get opportunity and force his way, even if he's not on the roster day one.  I'd just really like the FO spend a few $M for 2 rotation spots, a little help in the pen, my preference for a 4th OF, and THEN look at the options available to them like a spreadsheet for the 3rd SP they need. Can they pull a rabbit out of the hat a 3rd time by trading within the system for a solid rotation addition? Or will the market deliver someone to them to fill that last spot? 

There is work to do! But Miranda will get his shot, no doubt! It all comes down to how big of a re-tool we are looking at. Because there is a lot to like looking at 2022.

 

 

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I feel Simmons was brought in on a one year deal, with the thought being Lewis would be up around the same time Kirilloff and Larnach came up. And Lewis would be the back-up at ss and cf. But Lewis showed up lame and  missed the year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins sign another low budget one year deal at ss, and hope Lewis is recovered and ready by June. Spend on SP.

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The one thing I noticed reading through this is hardly any mention of Cave, Garlic, Refsnyder and Astudillo. That is as it should be. They have been useful but with Gordon, Celestino, Rooker, Arraez, Rortvedt and Larnach they are now unnecessary. I could see a few of these guys turn into above average regulars. In particular Celestino really turned it around and I like his ceiling. Gordon, if he can fill out and gain just 20lbs could surprise us. Time to prune the 40 man!

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The "dump so-and-so" trade philosophies are the opposite of my thinking.  Sano?  You'd be selling low.  Kepler? Same.  The sell-high candidates right now are Buxton, Polanco, Miranda and possibly Donaldson (esp if there is an NL DH), and since I want my team to be actually good, I think the only one of those that I would actively shop would be JD.  Yes, we would eat some salary, but it would open up 3b for Miranda, extra Arraez at-bats, and if Sano does actually shed 30 pounds, he can play there as well on occasion.

I agree with the one-year SS free-agent thinking (though my dream SS is Trea Turner if LA keeps Seager).  I don't think we're out-bidding for the top SS anyway, so the Galvis/Iglesias/Simmons combo would pave the way for a mid-season Lewis/Martin promotion (wishful thinking).  Celestino is my opening day LF, and an outfield of Celestino, Buxton, Kepler is very strong defensively.

Kiriloff/Polanco/Iglesias/Miranda (Arraez/Gordon); Celestino/Buxton/Kepler (Larnach or Rooker); Garver/Jeffers.  Sano is DH. All 3 outfielders can play center, as well as Gordon; Polanco is backup at SS, with Gordon in emergencies. Arraez can get ABs as 2b/3b (no more outfield) and some DH, Kiriloff can play LF, Miranda can have a few days at 2b with Arraez or Sano at 3b and Polanco DH or day off.  DH is Kiriloff or Sano (whichever isn't playing 1b that day) with Larnach, Arraez, Garver.  Gordon is our pinch-runner late in games.

$ (no more Donaldson, no 3rd arb year for Berrios, no Colome) is all spent on Buxton and pitching (and I've advocated for Pineda and Rodon, filling every bullpen slot with existing players, extra starters, or low-cost fliers). Plan B is keep JD, and substitute Miranda for Celestino in the above scenarios.

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22 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Padres get--Buxton, Rogers, Garver, Ober, and Barnes

Twins get--Abrams, Hassell, Gore, and take back Wil Myer's salary

The Twins really need to decide whether Buxton is "their" player and hopefully there is a deal worked out based off of a base plus incentives. Buxton is the real deal when on the field.

If, and only if, it is necessary to trade Buxton then the Padres and some other teams could be decent partners. In the proposal by Capt'n Piranha quoted, I suggest a simple tweak, pulling back Garver and Ober and substituting Ryan. 

Moving Buxton means major adjustments and pulling Garver back allows me to trade Larnach, Jeffers, Dobnak, Rooker, and Celestino for Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer. 

Jose Miranda will get a chance to play 1B, 2B, and 3B next season if he shows the tools next Spring Training. I'm excited to see him play for the Twins. 

The disappointment of 2021 has manifested itself across the region and Twins fans want a return to playoff baseball or at least a relevant competitive team. Just recently Falvey reiterated that he plans to make moves that return the Twins to a different place in the standings. We shall see. We hope Buxton is back but all contingencies need to be examined and Jose Miranda is also certainly a piece of the puzzle.

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There have been a lot of good suggestions and points made.  Here's my thoughts:

Guys like Donaldson, Sano, Kepler and Buxton, at least by Baseball Trade Values either have negative trade values (Donaldson, Sano) or trade values that are way below what the player could actually provide for value (Buxton, Kepler).  So you have to approach it by acknowledging that trading a negative value will net you nothing except "maybe" some salary relief.  I think the #1 issue is signing Buxton to a long term deal.  If they fail at that, even blockbuster trades with the Padres may not save them.  I look at the A.L. Central and our roster and I see no reason why we shouldn't compete for a division crown.  Rebuilding the pitching staff is the #2 task because if the Twins PITCH they will be right in the thick of it.  So here's my thumbnail sketch of a plan to build a contender this off season:

Sign a #1 SP.  Ray, Rodon, Gausman, Stroman,  SOMEBODY should be getting $20 a year from us.  We need an Anchor at the top.

TRADE from areas of strength and continue to build the SP staff.  Trade #1:

Twins Get:  Frankie Montas SP A's 44.1 value (Baseball Trade Values.  Twins Trade:  Arraez 34.1, Canterino 9.6, Willie Joe Garry 1.3  45.00 value.

Trade #2:  Twins Get: Sandy Alcantara 56.6 value.  Twins Trade: Jeffers 27.9 and Larnach 28.7  Value 56.6.

Twins SP Staff:  Ray/Gausman/Rodon/Stroman   Alcantara, Montas, Ryan, Ober.  Depth:  Dobnak, Balazovic, Gant, Jax.

They could even consider Pineda if he's a bargain.  Now THAT'S a pitching staff. 

A solid closer candidate needs to be acquired to go with Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Theilbar, Minaya, and others.

They need a SS.  Go after a Galvis/Iglesias type---glove first, bat second as a bridge to the possible Lewis/Martin SS.

C   Garver  Rortvedt

1B  Kiriloff, Sano, Miranda, Garver

2B  Polanco, Miranda, Gordon, A. Martin

3B  Donaldson, Miranda, A. Martin, Sano??

LF  Mystery RH  FA bat at an affordable price---Celestino, Miranda, A. Martin, Gordon, Rooker

CF  Buxton, Gordon, Celestino (mystery RHFA Bat)

RF  Kepler, Gordon, Celestino, (mystery RH Free Agent Bat).

There is depth in our minor leagues.  it's time to move some redundant pieces off the Major League roster and get a pitching staff and bullpen together that will keep us in every game.  I would love to spend on a big name SS.  Story or Baez, but with Lewis and Martin only a short term fix is needed.  Again, Buxton must be signed and a pitching staff rebuilt.  With all the other young pitching talent in the farm system that can afford to be a little patient and NOT rush guys to the Big Leagues.  If Balazovic shines and Ryan or Ober struggles you have OPTIONS.  I'm short on the "Closer' and the "Mystery RH FA Bat" but it's time to go to Mass, so someone, please come up with some suggestions of who YOU would target for those positions or other SP TRADE options.

 

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Why would we trade proven guys just to give opportunities for unproven guys? It sets a bad example for signing future solid free agents and trading Donaldson sets a bad example for a guy like Buxton by telling him we’re not gonna even try anytime soon. The more guys we have as depth the better if we’ve learned anything this year. The more major league hitters we have the better as well. Why let one guy go just to try and get a different guy of the same caliber? I’m not getting the reasoning

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TNtwins85...I understand your question if you're referring to Donaldson.  He's worth more to the Twins to keep than try to move him as a negative trade asset.  However, if you're wondering about guys like Arraez, Larnach, Jeffers, etc...you would trade proven guys on your major league roster where you have a surplus (2B, C, Corner OF) to acquire proven major league talent at a position of need.  In the Twins case, SP, BP and possibly SS.  One of Garver or Jeffers needs to be dealt.  Rortvedt would be an acceptable backup and he bats LH.  MANY teams are REALLY weak at the catching position.  Dealing either Garver or Jeffers gives the Twins a great opportunity to acquire a proven major league starting pitcher who they (the Twins) desperately need.  We have a BUNCH of guys who can play 2B.  One of them (Polanco) is an All Star caliber 2B.  Arraez is our most valuable trade chip.  You've got to give something of value to get something of value.  We can part with Arraez to add much needed pitching without damaging the lineup for next year and the future.  Guys like Gordon and possibly Austin Martin will be ready.  Deal from strength to shore up a weakness.

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I find it interesting that so many people want to rid ourselves of players that are actually producing. And, how great the exceptions are for prospects to immediately field openings and produce at MLB levels because they had a great year in the minors. The players to move are Astudillo and Arraez. Arraez through trade and Astudillo by removing him from the 40-man. If he doesn't get picked up, then we can assign him to AAA. Miranda comes up to spell Donaldson at third, maybe play some outfield. It's a huuuuge assumption that Miranda will just instantly become this MLB fixture. All prospects need some time. If he looks like he can take over, then you move Donaldson (or try to) mid season or next off season, but now is not the time. I mean ... we actually want to improve the team, and getting rid of Donaldson to replace him with Miranda does not do that

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Martin is your starting LF or CF (if Buxton is dealt) by May something. That means Miranda is likely not playing the LF at all. The Twins are  flush with OF....I'd be really surprised if they all get hurt/stink, and Miranda plays out there. I doubt they deal Donaldson at this point, but if they do, Miranda is likely at 3B to open the year, imo. Most likely he's in AAA to start the year, and if someone gets hurt at 3B/2B/1B/DH, he might come up. I think he's traded, not that I would necessarily do that, btw.....but they NEED a veteran starting pitcher or two.....

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On 10/1/2021 at 10:26 PM, old nurse said:

A half season AAA player is not a star nor is their anything that says he will be

This is close to my thinking. Miranda had a terrific season. I question his ultimate upside. This is a “me” thing, but I can’t help of thinking about Kepler as a prospect. He always had good traits and started to put things together in the upper minors. At the time I thought they should have considered packaging him in a trade for pitching, because I was skeptical it would click for him in the majors. With the exception of 2019, it really hasn’t. I have similar feelings about Miranda. No good reason for it, just a gut feeling. 

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I think Miranda is the real deal. I hope they bring him up next year (like early April). Give this kid a shot!

We don't have to jettison any decent players to get him into the "show"...Just get him into the action and see what happens. We need to quickly combine that core group of young players with the veterans in order to launch another WS team. 

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