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Game Thread: Twins vs. Blue Jays 9/23 6:40 PM CT


Sconnie
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31 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I am becoming convinced that Nick Gordon has earned at least a utility role  for the 2022 Twins. If the choice would be between Arraez and Gordon, I like Gordon’s skill set better. 

Arraez hits much better, and there should be room for both. I gotta think the odd man out is turtle

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56 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I am becoming convinced that Nick Gordon has earned at least a utility role  for the 2022 Twins. If the choice would be between Arraez and Gordon, I like Gordon’s skill set better. 

I keep saying that I think Arraez gets traded in the off season. But the time to have maximized a return was after his 1st year ... and that's when I was saying to trade him

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24 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

Arraez hits much better, and there should be room for both. I gotta think the odd man out is turtle

I think Turtle is gone either way. I don't think that decision will depend on Arraez and Gordon at all.

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4 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Arraez hits much better, and there should be room for both. I gotta think the odd man out is turtle

Really?

Arraez has 38 rbi, Gordon has 21  in one half as many games as Arraez has played..

If Gordon can improve his fielding, Arraez is gone.

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4 hours ago, RpR said:

Really?

Arraez has 38 rbi, Gordon has 21  in one half as many games as Arraez has played..

If Gordon can improve his fielding, Arraez is gone.

RBI tells me about the opportunities afforded the batter by how the batters before them got on base. It doesn't tell me much about how the batter did. 38 positive outcomes out of an unknown denominator isn't exactly compelling in regards to sample of data to make predictions with. Below table is career numbers. Gordon of course is just 2021. Arraez goes back to 2019. Larger sample gives me more confidence.

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Arraez walks more than he strikes out. Gordon strikes out 4x what he walks. Arraez batting higher in the order affords more opportunities for RBI.

Arraez batting average is .308, Gordon .263. Arraez gets hits more frequently.

Arraez OPS .769, Gordon .712. Arraez has better on base plus slugging percentage.

We've looked at how they compare to each other, how do they compare to everyone else?

Arraez wRC+ is 11 % above average, Gordon 4% below average. 

 

So yes, I can absolutely assert that Arraez is a better hitter than Gordon. I was lazy in my post, but got the chance to look it up, thanks for challenging my lazy supposition OPS was closer between the two batters than my recollection. However in my post, I didn't think that Gordon would be the odd man out in the spring. I think Astudillo will be. I think Gordon will start the season in 22 on the big league roster. 

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