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Pie chart of blame


cHawk
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So, 2021. A an unexpectedly bad season where many are calling for heads.

If any of you watch SKOR North, you’ll be familiar with the concept of a pie chart of blame. That’s what I’m going to do.

So, basically, here’s mine:

2439DE64-10D0-4843-B002-F029EDC7FC15.jpeg.b4e13a5d830bf3869af244690b30ce80.jpeg

Falvey and Levine: 35%

Pretty much every FA Pitching Addition from this past offseason has went

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Now, I made a thread a while back asking whether or not it was a misevaluation by the FO or they couldn’t have helped them all blowing up. Maybe it was all bad luck, but I believe it was a misevaluation on their part. The staff as a whole has been terrible. And when that’s the case, you look to the guys who put it together. And if you’re wondering why Falvey and Levine aren’t getting a lionsshare of the pie chart, well, you’ll see soon.

Rocco Baldelli: 10%

This will probably shock many. I’ve definitely been scratching my head at many of Baldelli’s decisions this year. The reason I only give him so little is because of one thing: I don’t think his management had that much impact on the games. As bad as his pitching management has looked, there’s been more situations where he was simply dealt a bad hand. Simply put, this pitching staff would make any manager look really bad. He didn’t put the pitching staff together.

Injuries: 35%

Donaldson hurt immediately, Buxton getting hurt multiple times. Kepler getting COVID, Kiriloff getting hurt, injuries to the catching tandem. Digging into your EIGHTH outfielder option in ****ing May.

And that’s just the position players side of things. Maeda getting injured, Pineda getting injured. Injuries to Duran and Balazovic and other top prospects.

Injuries to key players will always hurt a team. The Twins have had loads of them. They have definitely been a characteristic of the season blowing up early.

Coaches and Players: 10%

I’ve said this before. This team has not looked like a well-coached baseball team. Specifically, this team has had many mental mistakes and brain farts cost them games. Arraez/Blankenhorn in the 13-12 loss to the A’s. Celestino making the losing drop at KC. Donaldson dropping the easy throw against the A’s at home. The Twins are Bottom 5 in every meaningful fielding stat. (FP, Errors)

I’m not calling for any changes to the coaching staff, but I think a lot of this is connected to the coaching staff.

Andrelton Simmons: 10%

Why does Simmons get his own spot in this pie chart? Well, it’s simple. He refused the vaccine and was the first one to test positive, causing an early COVID outbreak, which definitely tanked the season to some degree.

So, that’s my opinion. What’s yours? Please share your opinion down below, or Frogo will be in your bed tonight:

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A570B12D-4D0C-4FAA-AB2E-7878639C0AD4.gif

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I like the chart. 

The pitching staff was a pretty obvious potential problem even in the off-season. The twins seemed too invested in best case scenarios. And, despite the injuries,  the offense wasn't horrible and had some bad luck. 

Sano's slump was a killer as well. 

That all said, I think the FO should take the majority of the blame. Rocco second. Players/injuries the rest. 

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Hawk, love pie charts😀!!  They provide a clear picture of the subject.   Naturally, there will be differences of opinion.  Here are mine:

1.  FO :  have to go 50% here(and that's probably too low).  After the last two seasons, it was pretty obvious the window was wide open.  It should also have been obvious that if the Twins were to keep pace with the agressive White Sox that they needed to add at least one top starter and top bullpen pitcher.  To believe Maeda would continue his hot streak in 2021 was just unrealistic.  Berrios was never an ace.  Though a solid #2 or 3, he all too often had meltdowns in critical situations and matched up poorly with other teams' aces in playoffs.  Instead, the Wonder Boys dumpster dived once again, with Happ and the Shoe the result.  Yes, their dismal showing was far worse than most expected, but still, no one saw an improved rotation because of their addition.  Likewise, bargain hunting for pen pieces went about as expected.  There was a reason the Sox dumped Colome and added Hendricks: the Sox wanted to win in 2021.  With Rogers falloff in 2020, our bullpen was a crying need, but all we got was Robles and the ill-fated Colome(more on him later).

2.  Rocco/ Coaches(should be combined) - 25%.  Rocco is the manager so coach's performance falls under his mantle.  The lack of leadership and fundamentals was evident early on.  This team lacked the resiliency to bounce back from falling behind.  Their fundamentals were lousy, as you pointed out.  Rocco babied his players like no one else I've seen in 60 years of following the franchise.  Pre-game practices were voluntary until after the trade deadline.  Viola rightfully pointed out this glaring omission.  Yes, the hitting coaches were subpar but why didn't the mgr/FO do something earlier?  A manager still learning on the job is not the right guy for a team that had won 2 consecutive division titles.

3. The Players - 10%.  Many played below their norms, especially in the first 2 months when the race was enfolding.  Was that a result of a general softness on this team, a softness we have seen in 19 straight playoff losses?  We'll never know, but questions must be asked about this squad's mental toughness.  Why weren't they ready at the get-go?  We can talk about bullpen improvement since August 1st, but is that because the pressure was off and the pen had little to lose when it was obvious they were cooked?

4. Injuries - 10%.  Sure we had some injuries and Buxton's particularly hurt, but every team had critical injuriies this year.  The Sox lost their two star OFs and starting catcher for more than half of the year.  The Dodgers lost more than half their rotation for 50% of the year.  The list goes on and on.  Good teams have the depth to respond, bad teams don't.  Injuries are a pretty lame excuse for this team's nosedive.

5. Colome - 5%.  Have to reserve special mention for his blown saves at the start.  These blown saves early on set the negative tone for the entire season(or at least until the Twins were way out of contention).  I never thought I'd see the nightmare of Ron Davis, but Colome certainly followed closely when it most counted.

So yes, there's enough blame to go around, but the FO?Rocco deserve the lion share!

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Okay, this is pretty fun. Here's my takeaway:

image.png

1. Front Office: 30% - They chose the wrong horses at nearly every opportunity. Outside of Ober, they failed to protect good players (including Miranda, they were simply lucky no one selected him). They paid all the wrong people. If there was a decision to be made, they made the wrong one (outside of Cruz).

2. Players: 30% - They're the ones who took the field. No one coached Happ into becoming a crap pitcher. No one told Sano to go into his typical early season funk, except moreso this time. No one told basically the entire roster to underperform for two full months. Out of the lists above this one, I find it odd and a little amusing how reluctant anyone is to assign proper blame to the millionaires who go out there and win actual baseball games.

3. Injuries: 20% - On top of many bad decisions, basically everyone, especially the minor leaguers, decided to be injured... basically for the entirety of the first three months of the season. Even guys who should have helped stop the bleeding - like Maeda - only contributed more to it because they faced constant injuries and the resulting bad performance. There was no relenting with this team. The bad decisions were the front office's fault but no quarter was to be found anywhere to cover their mistakes.

4. Colome & Simmons: 15% - It's easy to forget that this team started 5-2 and could easily have started 7-0. It's hard to know how the Twins would have recovered from other players' underperformance had these two meddling kids not done everything in their power to tank the entire team permanently. Tag-teaming on top of the bad front office decisions, these two players, respectively, tried to break the franchise record for negative WPA and tried to knock out half the (already depleted) roster with Covid, all within the first three weeks of the season. Without either or preferably both of them, we may have seen a very different baseball season in 2021.

5. Manager & Coaches: 5% - I don't know where to put them, frankly. Between all of them, maybe they're the biggest problem... but I'm not talking about Rocco here, I'm talking about the coaches. I simply don't see how Rocco has a significant influence on play unless we're talking clubhouse demeanor... but this was a veteran team full of players used to winning. Had there been an easy fix to this mess, any number of veterans could have stepped forward into a leadership role and righted the ship. As for the on-field underperformance, I have no clue. It's hard to judge coaches but it's pretty obvious they didn't do a great job. This number could just as easily be 25%, primarily on the pitching and hitting coaches, as the 5% I gave it.

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image.png.d696dd44f222dbaa93eb83d48199f606.png

Falvey and Levine 60%. I give the a big part in the injuries because they didn’t do nearly enough to build depth in the offseason. I was hoping for Michael Brantley to be added. They are to blame for constructing a roster where two huge question marks in Cave and Kepler played so much even though both players are deeply flawed. I also was advocating for them to sign a viable MLB center fielder for the inevitable Buxton injuries. And, even though in the minority, I think it was a big mistake to let Eddie Rosario walk for nothing, replacing him with Cave and a struggling Larnach. How does that make the team better?

baseball reference Rosario

1002799086_ScreenShot2021-09-18at5_20_06PM.png.778cdbc676d125f89bfee20fb9f2b472.png

baseball reference Cave

2023035480_ScreenShot2021-09-18at5_21_16PM.png.488b16ac83a1a051e5a4753590d52c48.png

We see that Cave went .221/.285/.389 = .674 in 2020 and .188/.253/.302 = .555 in 2021

Rosario is at .254 (66 points higher than Cave)/ .299 (+46 on Cave) / .416 (+114 on Cave). RBIs are 56 - 12. SB 10-1. Cave has been bad two years in a row and so has Kepler. FO fault for not obtaining viable backups. All 3 OF positions were ? going into this season and the front office sat on their hands. Cave should be released and Kepler either traded or slotted for a 4th or 5th OF position. His continual pulling the ball into the shift, refusing to change his approach is a major drag on the potential of the team.

All in all, last offseason with letting several viable players walk or trading them, choosing inept replacements for the departed and not having contingency plans for the many question marks equals one of the all time worst offseason in baseball history, much worse than 2019-2020 when they only let Schoop and Cron walk (the start of the decline). I include the signing of Simmons as part of their failure but the failure was so widespread that it’s not as magnified

Injuries 10%. With a couple of viable MLB replacements they would have been in about the same position as every other team in baseball. Failure to build depth is mostly on the FO.

Baldelli 30%. I’ve watched for 3 years now. I’ve seen Gene Mauch as Twins manager (a freakin’ tactical genius), Leyland, Tony LaRussa, Terry Francona, Joe Madden and yes Paul Molitor - all of them vastly better than Baldelli who overall makes the strangest pitching staff moves and non-moves (take a pitcher out when he’s  getting battered instead of leaving him in 2,3,4,5 batters too long so the game is out of reach, often early). Plays the infield in almost all the time, spent the entire year largely eschewing the bunt in extra innings. Sloppy fundamentals.

I think Rocco is a likable guy but this is a business and a game where you have to measure up against your peers. If he gets another chance next year, I think he has a lot of reflection and soul searching to do as does Kepler. If he’s back, best of luck since people can learn from their mistakes and improve, possibly a lot. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s let go but put the chances only at 30%.

 

Edited by Greglw3
typos mostly
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21 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Falvey and Levine 60%. I give the a big part in the injuries because they didn’t do nearly enough to build depth in the offseason. I was hoping for Michael Brantley to be added. They are to blame for constructing a roster where two huge question marks in Cave and Kepler played so much even though both players are deeply flawed. I also was advocating for them to sign a viable MLB center fielder for the inevitable Buxton injuries. And, even though in the minority, I think it was a big mistake to let Eddie Rosario walk for nothing, replacing him with Cave and a struggling Larnach. How does that make the team better?

They only way they would’ve gotten Brantley is if they outbid Houston (2yr/$32M). For a depth piece, that’s absurdly overpriced. As a starter, it would still be blocking a corner OF spot, the spot where the farm is loaded the most by far. Kirilloff was going to be started in LF that year, they weren’t going to block him with Brantley on a 2-year deal. But mainly, they were never going to get Brantley away from Houston.

Pretty much all of those things can be said for Rosario. The Twins had to pay him $10M if they wanted to keep him, which is pretty overpriced for a player of his skillset.

As for the backup CF, I want to hear some of the candidates you had in mind.

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I think Brock's pie chart is about right. The lion's share should be the FO and the players themselves, with injuries and the coaches/manager rounding it out. imho. Thanks. Didn't we already have a thread assigning percentage blame?

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2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I think Brock's pie chart is about right. The lion's share should be the FO and the players themselves, with injuries and the coaches/manager rounding it out. imho. Thanks. Didn't we already have a thread assigning percentage blame?

That was all the way back in April.

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1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

I'd be curious to see if people judge it roughly the same or wildly different

I’d have to imagine it’s different. Plenty has happened since then. (Trade deadline for one)

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7 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I'd be curious to see if people judge it roughly the same or wildly different

Good question.  That would be interesting to see.  I'd rate it pretty much the same.  They've largely stabilized since May, so the issues at their peak was in the first 6 weeks of the season.  The major contributing factors are still there in force.  Between injuries and the absence of quality pitching (partially due to said injuries and the remainder by FO decisions), even becoming something around a .500 team since May is surprising.  

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8 hours ago, cHawk said:

I’d have to imagine it’s different. Plenty has happened since then. (Trade deadline for one)

True. But I'd have liked to see what the trade deadline would have looked like had we been winning, so it really does go back to the beginning for me. The FO and players themselves put us in this position. As I said above, they bear the most responsibility here. And if we'd been winning from the start, those two would bear the most kudos. 

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14 hours ago, cHawk said:

They only way they would’ve gotten Brantley is if they outbid Houston (2yr/$32M). For a depth piece, that’s absurdly overpriced. As a starter, it would still be blocking a corner OF spot, the spot where the farm is loaded the most by far. Kirilloff was going to be started in LF that year, they weren’t going to block him with Brantley on a 2-year deal. But mainly, they were never going to get Brantley away from Houston.

Pretty much all of those things can be said for Rosario. The Twins had to pay him $10M if they wanted to keep him, which is pretty overpriced for a player of his skillset.

As for the backup CF, I want to hear some of the candidates you had in mind.

Not blocking Kirilloff with a batting titlest contender? How has that worked out? Brantley isn’t a depth piece, he’s a batting title contender. My hope for 2022 is an OF of Brantley, Buxton and Kirilloff. 

The farm wasn’t going to and hasn’t provided a player anywhere near Brantley’s caliber. As to the money, pay up!

The Twins and many fans are always bemoaning their fate as a non-playoff advancing team but always seem to be saying this guy or that guy is too expensive. I don’t buy it (pun intended).

The Twins have been cheap so long first with Calvin Griffith, then with Carl Pohlad and Terry Ryan. I really think Jim Pohlad would spend the money necessary. The definition of insanity is  doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. I think the only reason the Twins won those world championships was Andy MacPhail who acquired premium talent to win those both: Gladden, Berenguer, Reardon, Baylor, Morris, etc.

Even starting off with Brantley, Buxton and Kirilloff next year would provide playing time for Kerrigan or Contreras, Kepler (backup OF if he’s still around).

The FO has bumbled and fumbled and decimated a 101 win franchise to a 70 win franchise. If they hope to contend next year and I think they can, they’re going to have to spend money to rectify their many mistakes - maybe too many of them related to saving money that Jim Pohlad would have authorized. 

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2 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Not blocking Kirilloff with a batting titlest contender? How has that worked out? Brantley isn’t a depth piece, he’s a batting title contender. My hope for 2022 is an OF of Brantley, Buxton and Kirilloff. 

The farm wasn’t going to and hasn’t provided a player anywhere near Brantley’s caliber. As to the money, pay up!

The Twins and many fans are always bemoaning their fate as a non-playoff advancing team but always seem to be saying this guy or that guy is too expensive. I don’t buy it (pun intended).

The Twins have been cheap so long first with Calvin Griffith, then with Carl Pohlad and Terry Ryan. I really think Jim Pohlad would spend the money necessary. The definition of insanity is  doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. I think the only reason the Twins won those world championships was Andy MacPhail who acquired premium talent to win those both: Gladden, Berenguer, Reardon, Baylor, Morris, etc.

Even starting off with Brantley, Buxton and Kirilloff next year would provide playing time for Kerrigan or Contreras, Kepler (backup OF if he’s still around).

The FO has bumbled and fumbled and decimated a 101 win franchise to a 70 win franchise. If they hope to contend next year and I think they can, they’re going to have to spend money to rectify their many mistakes - maybe too many of them related to saving money that Jim Pohlad would have authorized. 

Aight. You’ve convinced me.

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To ask if the front office "misevaluated" the pitchers they brought in last off season is silly.  If you don't think they "misevaluated", then you must believe that they actually believed that the new additions would perform at ridiculously poor levels but signed them anyway.  I cannot believe for an instance that any front office would intentionally sign garbage.  Ergo: "misevaluated."

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Pitching, pitching, pitching. The number 2 and 3 ( Maeda & Pineda) starters were hurt. The 6,7 & 8 starters were all hurt. The number 4 starter (Happ) was horrendous. Shoemaker was never more than a fill in for when one of the top prospects was ready to step in. But they were all hurt. This did cause us to use Ober and that has worked out well. But it looks like he has run out of gas. 

I don't think anyone expected the bullpen to have to use 4 pitchers per game and many got injured as a result. 

On top of the wonderful pitching we only have 2 regulars hitting over 250. You can look at OPS for similar wonderfulness. Polanco has had a good year. Who else? Tough to win that way.

I don't think the Twins can beat the White Sox next year and if they don't they won't make the playoffs as a division second seed. They probably can't beat Cleveland either. Would ownership cough up 60mil to finish third when they probably finish third without signing any free agents. I doubt it, If it was my money, I wouldn't either.

I look for many current Twins to be finding new homes this winter.

 

 

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I think the front office needs to shoulder a majority of the blame here (I'll call it 51%). They knew and we all knew here at TD our bullpen was in trouble. What they brought in for SP was laughable at best. No depth at any position to bring in subs in case of injury, etc. 

The rest of the blame (49%) falls on the players/coaches. This team never looked like they were having fun or really into it. You watch the White Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Rays, etc. and they look like they are having fun and look motivated. 

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18 minutes ago, gman said:

On top of the wonderful pitching we only have 2 regulars hitting over 250. You can look at OPS for similar wonderfulness. Polanco has had a good year. Who else? Tough to win that way.

Donaldson has been quite good. Garver has been extremely good, but injured. Sano has been acceptable.

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1 hour ago, twinssporto said:

I think the front office needs to shoulder a majority of the blame here (I'll call it 51%). They knew and we all knew here at TD our bullpen was in trouble. What they brought in for SP was laughable at best. No depth at any position to bring in subs in case of injury, etc. 

The rest of the blame (49%) falls on the players/coaches. This team never looked like they were having fun or really into it. You watch the White Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Rays, etc. and they look like they are having fun and look motivated. 

So PROFESSIONAL players, who actually play the game, are not accountable at all? They should still be better and play better in spite of coaching/managing. Seriously ... I really think that's way off

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3 hours ago, twinssporto said:

I think the front office needs to shoulder a majority of the blame here (I'll call it 51%). They knew and we all knew here at TD our bullpen was in trouble. What they brought in for SP was laughable at best. No depth at any position to bring in subs in case of injury, etc. 

The rest of the blame (49%) falls on the players/coaches. This team never looked like they were having fun or really into it. You watch the White Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Rays, etc. and they look like they are having fun and look motivated. 

Why do you think that is? It was a vast majority of the same position players from 2019/2020. And they all had a blast those years. 

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On 9/18/2021 at 4:35 PM, cHawk said:

So, 2021. A an unexpectedly bad season where many are calling for heads.

If any of you watch SKOR North, you’ll be familiar with the concept of a pie chart of blame. That’s what I’m going to do.

So, basically, here’s mine:

2439DE64-10D0-4843-B002-F029EDC7FC15.jpeg.b4e13a5d830bf3869af244690b30ce80.jpeg

Falvey and Levine: 35%

Pretty much every FA Pitching Addition from this past offseason has went

ED763523-EC91-4B43-AF5F-AF502E355D0E.gif.d4280be258cdbdb738f8ac909108e021.gif

Now, I made a thread a while back asking whether or not it was a misevaluation by the FO or they couldn’t have helped them all blowing up. Maybe it was all bad luck, but I believe it was a misevaluation on their part. The staff as a whole has been terrible. And when that’s the case, you look to the guys who put it together. And if you’re wondering why Falvey and Levine aren’t getting a lionsshare of the pie chart, well, you’ll see soon.

Rocco Baldelli: 10%

This will probably shock many. I’ve definitely been scratching my head at many of Baldelli’s decisions this year. The reason I only give him so little is because of one thing: I don’t think his management had that much impact on the games. As bad as his pitching management has looked, there’s been more situations where he was simply dealt a bad hand. Simply put, this pitching staff would make any manager look really bad. He didn’t put the pitching staff together.

Injuries: 35%

Donaldson hurt immediately, Buxton getting hurt multiple times. Kepler getting COVID, Kiriloff getting hurt, injuries to the catching tandem. Digging into your EIGHTH outfielder option in ****ing May.

And that’s just the position players side of things. Maeda getting injured, Pineda getting injured. Injuries to Duran and Balazovic and other top prospects.

Injuries to key players will always hurt a team. The Twins have had loads of them. They have definitely been a characteristic of the season blowing up early.

Coaches and Players: 10%

I’ve said this before. This team has not looked like a well-coached baseball team. Specifically, this team has had many mental mistakes and brain farts cost them games. Arraez/Blankenhorn in the 13-12 loss to the A’s. Celestino making the losing drop at KC. Donaldson dropping the easy throw against the A’s at home. The Twins are Bottom 5 in every meaningful fielding stat. (FP, Errors)

I’m not calling for any changes to the coaching staff, but I think a lot of this is connected to the coaching staff.

Andrelton Simmons: 10%

Why does Simmons get his own spot in this pie chart? Well, it’s simple. He refused the vaccine and was the first one to test positive, causing an early COVID outbreak, which definitely tanked the season to some degree.

So, that’s my opinion. What’s yours? Please share your opinion down below, or Frogo will be in your bed tonight:

6E527680-6734-4125-B545-DA8A2761251D.jpeg.0b85b6e5fe69e9bb0469aadbf02d2f03.jpeg

A570B12D-4D0C-4FAA-AB2E-7878639C0AD4.gif

Your chart is weird, because it says everyone except the players are to blame.

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On 9/18/2021 at 6:51 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Okay, this is pretty fun. Here's my takeaway:

image.png

1. Front Office: 30% - They chose the wrong horses at nearly every opportunity. Outside of Ober, they failed to protect good players (including Miranda, they were simply lucky no one selected him). They paid all the wrong people. If there was a decision to be made, they made the wrong one (outside of Cruz).

2. Players: 30% - They're the ones who took the field. No one coached Happ into becoming a crap pitcher. No one told Sano to go into his typical early season funk, except moreso this time. No one told basically the entire roster to underperform for two full months. Out of the lists above this one, I find it odd and a little amusing how reluctant anyone is to assign proper blame to the millionaires who go out there and win actual baseball games.

3. Injuries: 20% - On top of many bad decisions, basically everyone, especially the minor leaguers, decided to be injured... basically for the entirety of the first three months of the season. Even guys who should have helped stop the bleeding - like Maeda - only contributed more to it because they faced constant injuries and the resulting bad performance. There was no relenting with this team. The bad decisions were the front office's fault but no quarter was to be found anywhere to cover their mistakes.

4. Colome & Simmons: 15% - It's easy to forget that this team started 5-2 and could easily have started 7-0. It's hard to know how the Twins would have recovered from other players' underperformance had these two meddling kids not done everything in their power to tank the entire team permanently. Tag-teaming on top of the bad front office decisions, these two players, respectively, tried to break the franchise record for negative WPA and tried to knock out half the (already depleted) roster with Covid, all within the first three weeks of the season. Without either or preferably both of them, we may have seen a very different baseball season in 2021.

5. Manager & Coaches: 5% - I don't know where to put them, frankly. Between all of them, maybe they're the biggest problem... but I'm not talking about Rocco here, I'm talking about the coaches. I simply don't see how Rocco has a significant influence on play unless we're talking clubhouse demeanor... but this was a veteran team full of players used to winning. Had there been an easy fix to this mess, any number of veterans could have stepped forward into a leadership role and righted the ship. As for the on-field underperformance, I have no clue. It's hard to judge coaches but it's pretty obvious they didn't do a great job. This number could just as easily be 25%, primarily on the pitching and hitting coaches, as the 5% I gave it.

Colome and Simmons are of course part of “the players.” So your chart puts the players at 45%. That’s not high enough. 

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17 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Why do you think that is? It was a vast majority of the same position players from 2019/2020. And they all had a blast those years. 

I'm not sure either...It's like someone turned off a switch or something. Maybe I just imagined it but there seemed to be a difference from the previous years. Maybe it was the injuries that took the life out of the team.

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