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Who is in your 2022 Opening Day Lineup?


John Bonnes
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Twins do not need offense, they need defense and Seager at SS would be like putting hole in the infield for hitter to aim for.

Seager  --  Rtot/yr -- 5;  Rdrs/yr -- 0;   RF/9 -- 3.74: RF/G -- 3.55

Simmon - Rtot/yr -- 15; Rdrs/yr -- 22; RF/9 -- 4.47; RF/G -- 4.28

Seager is a sub-average fielder, Twins have plenty of those already.

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7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If I had any confidence in the organization paying a pitcher $100 million, I’d agree with you. I believe it’s an organizational philosophy set by ownership to not spend top dollar for starting pitching. Erv Santana remains the largest FA contract in team history and he was $13.5 million AAV IIRC. 

I have more confidence they’ll spend up for a top level SS who will play almost every game. 

Plus, one $100M pitcher doesn't really change the fact that the staff lacks a depth of quality.  Fielding a good defense is going to help bring several of those bad pitchers up in quality too.

Also....we'd be replacing a negative player with a righteously positive one on a daily basis.

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45 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Plus, one $100M pitcher doesn't really change the fact that the staff lacks a depth of quality.  Fielding a good defense is going to help bring several of those bad pitchers up in quality too.

Also....we'd be replacing a negative player with a righteously positive one on a daily basis.

That lack of depth I believe played into why Shoemaker and Happ were signed. Trying to add decent depth with the hope Duran, Balazovic, etc. would be ready. It failed obviously. Trying to look at this objectively, are the Twins close enough that either a 100M pitcher or position player would be a difference maker? I don't know.

 

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1 hour ago, RpR said:

Twins do not need offense, they need defense and Seager at SS would be like putting hole in the infield for hitter to aim for.

Seager  --  Rtot/yr -- 5;  Rdrs/yr -- 0;   RF/9 -- 3.74: RF/G -- 3.55

Simmon - Rtot/yr -- 15; Rdrs/yr -- 22; RF/9 -- 4.47; RF/G -- 4.28

Seager is a sub-average fielder, Twins have plenty of those already.

What would you say to Baez instead?  He's not signed to an extension yet, is he?

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3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

 

We will trade Jeffers 27.9 and Larnach 28.7 (56.6) total value to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara (56.6 total value). 

 

Trading for Alcantara would be a great idea. Miami seems to have a few decent pitchers, I'd be happy to take them all. That said, I'm not sure Miami would want those two guys, I'm honestly not sure what they're doing, but they have five prospects in the top 100, three of which are pitchers in AA, AAA, MLB this year. They'll have a top 6-7 pick this year and a supp, I believe. Other than the weird 2020 season, they haven't been a winning team since 2009. It looks like they are desperate for bats. And we have bats.

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1 hour ago, ashbury said:

What would you say to Baez instead?  He's not signed to an extension yet, is he?

His batting average  is similar to Schoop, his strike out rate is worse than Sano but while he is a better ss than those who are relief for Simmons, he is not in Simmons league for defense. 

He would be a good replacement for Arraez

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I don't think we'll see much change for next year in the lineup outside of SS. Garver and Jeffers are locks at C. I think Sano is cementing his position for 1B by having a good September which means Kirilloff will be in the OF when he comes back. Polanco needs/will stay at 2B. Donaldson and Arraez will platoon 3B. Kirilloff, Buck and Kepler will man the OF. Bench will be Rooker, Gordon, Turtle, Cave (groan). This is start of the season with possibly wholesale changes by the trading deadline depending on W/L record at that time, meaning they will be either buyers or sellers. I'm guessing they will be selling due to a weak season of pitching again. 2022 won't be much different than 2021.

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4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I actually agree under most circumstances but the pitching staff is going to be so underwhelming that the biggest, easy gains will likely be found there.

It's not hard to find large improvement when you're likely fielding players below replacement level.

Our starting pitchins sux a lot less than you think.  Ryan and Ober are solid as is Pineda who I bet we resign.  We need one good starter.  Maybe Danny Duffy.  For the 5th spot let Gaunt and Dobnak battle it out while Winder, Balazovich and Woods - Richardson. Gear up for their opportunities. 

We only need an average rotation to be a winning club.  

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I hate prognosticating because I'm usually really bad at it. Starting 9:

C - Garver

1B - Kirilloff

2B - Polanco

3B - Donaldson

SS - FA signing

LF - Larnach

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler?

I don't know about bench players or who will share positions, but maybe Gordon, Rooker and ??? are there? Kepler is a ? because he could be an off-season trade candidate. I also think Arraez could be (should be) traded as well.

 

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gunnarthor, the Marlins would do this because they need a catcher for the future and they are loaded with arms.  They are already playing Alfaro in LF because he's not very good defensively but shows the potential to be a decent hitter.  If he was their catcher of the future, he'd be playing catcher exclusively.  Jeffers is very good defensively and shows the potential to be a decent hitter.  Larnach is the kind of high upside offensive player they would take a risk on (unlike Kepler, who just seems like he's hit a ceiling).  The Twins (and I) do not like giving up young, controllable talent like Jeffers and Larnach, but we need a major league ready arm...NOW.  And Alcantara would fit the bill.  There's always a chance Miami says "no" and the Twins would have to look elsewhere.  But as loaded with young arms as they are and with their need at catcher REALLY high as well as offense in general, I think a trade like like this has a chance.  And from a Baseball Trade Values sense, it's fair.  

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On 9/16/2021 at 8:20 PM, John Bonnes said:

You know what? After reading a bunch of these replies and ideas I’m going to switch mine a bit. 
 

Assumptions: Donaldson is traded. They use that money to partially fund a more expensive shortstop. They still don't bring back Cruz. 

C - Jeffers (for Opening Day)

1B - Sano

2B - Polanco

SS - Top 5 FA SS

3B - Arraez

LF - Kirilloff

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

DH - Garver (for Opening Day, various overall) 

I see Donaldson bringing trade value, regardless off his contract. He has potential to be the first to go, opening the door for Miranda. I would guess the next could be Kepler since he can also play CF, is a decent defender. I will go the slightly younger starting crew after trades:

1B: Sano

2B: Polo 

SS: FA or trade (someone with higher OPS than Simmons, decent glove)

3B: Miranda

LF: Kiriloff

CF:  Buck

RF: Celestino (can also cover for Buck when needed!)

DH: Arraez 

Catch: Garver

Bench: Jeffers, Gordon, Rooker, Tortuga

Fingers crossed for a healthier, faster lineup

 

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9 hours ago, a-wan said:

That lack of depth I believe played into why Shoemaker and Happ were signed. Trying to add decent depth with the hope Duran, Balazovic, etc. would be ready. It failed obviously. Trying to look at this objectively, are the Twins close enough that either a 100M pitcher or position player would be a difference maker? I don't know.

 

Next year?  Probably not, but I think this team needs to be thinking 2023.  That's when most of those young guys you mention should be ready to contribute after some seasoning in '22.  Thing is....the FA shortstop market will never be better than this year and the organization has no one ready to fill that position any time soon.

I get the appeal of investing heavy in pitching, but the farm does look to have some near-ready contributors there.  I do think we need to address the depth of the pitching and to that end I'd trade Donaldson, I'd sign at least one guy for a mid-tier contract, I'd bring back Pineda, and I'm on the record wanting to target Zac Gallen as a buy-low.

But big money free agency?  Go get a stud shortstop is the way to go IMO.

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10 hours ago, RpR said:

Twins do not need offense, they need defense and Seager at SS would be like putting hole in the infield for hitter to aim for.

Seager  --  Rtot/yr -- 5;  Rdrs/yr -- 0;   RF/9 -- 3.74: RF/G -- 3.55

Simmon - Rtot/yr -- 15; Rdrs/yr -- 22; RF/9 -- 4.47; RF/G -- 4.28

Seager is a sub-average fielder, Twins have plenty of those already.

By what measure is Seager a sub-average fielder?  By fangraphs and B-ref he is average to slightly above average.  

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11 hours ago, RpR said:

Twins do not need offense, they need defense and Seager at SS would be like putting hole in the infield for hitter to aim for.

Seager  --  Rtot/yr -- 5;  Rdrs/yr -- 0;   RF/9 -- 3.74: RF/G -- 3.55

Simmon - Rtot/yr -- 15; Rdrs/yr -- 22; RF/9 -- 4.47; RF/G -- 4.28

Seager is a sub-average fielder, Twins have plenty of those already.

Rtot is pretty rough these days. It doesn't account for defensive shifts so it can dramatically skew fielding metrics because positions often get far more "chances" to field balls. I prefer using UZR... where Simmons is a below average shortstop because of his poor error rate this year.

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For those into the mathematical bruhaha, I use Baseball Refereence, I do not go searching for one that fits my desire, I actually loathe the system period.

Baseball Ref. puts Simmons in the top five period, with him being number one in one category.

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2 hours ago, RpR said:

For those into the mathematical bruhaha, I use Baseball Refereence, I do not go searching for one that fits my desire, I actually loathe the system period.

Baseball Ref. puts Simmons in the top five period, with him being number one in one category.

Baseball-Ref puts Simmons in the top five... of what? I'm not trying to be a prat, I'm legitimately curious what you're looking at.

And don't ascribe ill intent to other users simply because they prefer other metrics or use metrics you're not familiar with. We all have the option of learning new things. Ten years ago, I was dead-set against fWAR for pitchers, now I slightly lean toward it over rWAR. Others will argue vehemently for the opposite and I'm not sure they're wrong. There's no perfect answer here but being a jerk about it is almost always the wrong solution.

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Sunday adjustment ...

C - Mitch Garver & Ben Rortvedt

1B - Alex Kirilloff

2B - Jorge Polanco

3B - Jose Miranda

SS - C.J. Abrams (Tr) & Ehire Adrianza

LF - Mark Canha (FA) & Gilberto Celestino or Kyle Garlick

CF - Starling Marte (FA)

RF - Max Kepler

DH - Josh Donaldson

UT - Nick Gordon

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Dump Sano. Enough already.  Arraez stays your utility man and Gordon, better arm and better athlete, plays Left.  Gordon was misplaced out in Center, but can handle the corner.  His range with Bux and Kepler is a tough outfield.   Larnach is too stiff and slow to play LF, Larnach is your every day DH.  If anything, he and Kiriloff can cover 1B and DH, provided Larnach can seep up to the needed D level at 1B.  Twins have to get back to a solid defense.  Polanco has earned a full time starting spot being the MVP for the team this year---not even close.  He plays 2B.  

Twins need a field general.  He has to be SS or catcher.  Running the game behind the dish is a weakspot right now, especially with a mess in the pitching ranks.  Twins need to sign a FA catcher.  Garver is too injury prone and Jeffers is not there.  SS is a FA, too.  Royce Lewis needs to push his way onto the field if he is going to make is instead of the Twins pulling him.

This club needs some grit.  Some fighters. Moxy.  I think that is part of the reason they signed Donaldson but its hard to lead from the IL.  Torri Hunter was the last fire this team had.  These guys are professionals, but all teams need a catalyst.  The Twins looks for guys that get along with everyone.  Luckily Torri was both, but we haven't had anyone since him.  Your SS or C can be that.

C -FA
1B - Kiriloff
2B - Polanco
SS - FA
3B - Donaldson
LF - Gordon
CF - Bux
RF - Kepler
DH - Larnach

UM--Arraez

 

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6 minutes ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

Dump Sano. Enough already.  Arraez stays your utility man and Gordon, better arm and better athlete, plays Left.  Gordon was misplaced out in Center, but can handle the corner.  His range with Bux and Kepler is a tough outfield.   Larnach is too stiff and slow to play LF, Larnach is your every day DH.  If anything, he and Kiriloff can cover 1B and DH, provided Larnach can seep up to the needed D level at 1B.  Twins have to get back to a solid defense.  Polanco has earned a full time starting spot being the MVP for the team this year---not even close.  He plays 2B.  

Twins need a field general.  He has to be SS or catcher.  Running the game behind the dish is a weakspot right now, especially with a mess in the pitching ranks.  Twins need to sign a FA catcher.  Garver is too injury prone and Jeffers is not there.  SS is a FA, too.  Royce Lewis needs to push his way onto the field if he is going to make is instead of the Twins pulling him.

This club needs some grit.  Some fighters. Moxy.  I think that is part of the reason they signed Donaldson but its hard to lead from the IL.  Torri Hunter was the last fire this team had.  These guys are professionals, but all teams need a catalyst.  The Twins looks for guys that get along with everyone.  Luckily Torri was both, but we haven't had anyone since him.  Your SS or C can be that.

C -FA
1B - Kiriloff
2B - Polanco
SS - FA
3B - Donaldson
LF - Gordon
CF - Bux
RF - Kepler
DH - Larnach

UM--Arraez

 

You want Larnach at DH, but want to dump Sano? Help me understand. Also, Gordon in LF, not Larnach or Kiriloff or Celistino? Not Martin?

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Sano has had one full year of "good".  He has not played a full season other than that, is hurt constantly, starts slow every year, comes in  overweight and out of shape.  The guy does not take the game seriously enough--he's a get bye'r, not a pro.  He has 1-2 months of solid play every year---problem is the season is much longer than that.  Its been long enough to know the pattern. Not only does he not hit if he can't take it out of the park, he is a defensive liability at 3rd and 1B.  He's not a prospect anymore, he should be delivering daily as a solid starter on this team.  He is still a ? after all these years in the Org.  I don't consider salaries, but he makes more than Polanco.  Worth it for 25-30% of the season we get something from him.  When he's on fire, he is great.  Most of the year he is on the wrong end of the hose, though.  Cut bait, lets expect more 

I just did not see any game that Kiriloff or Larnach played in the outfield where their defensive skillsets looked like major league level.  Bats are not what I am talking about.  Limited range, no quickness and not enough instinctive jump on the balls to get to anything other than avg expectation plays.  They are both big, strong guys, just not high level sweepers you need to create outs and rob hits that win you games.  Gordon was learning fast and has the athletic ability, speed and tools to be a + outfielder.

Celestino looked overmatched in the field, don't know anything about Martin.  

Once again--prospects need to knock down the door and force their way on the field, not be handed chance after chance after chance until the club sees if they can grow into something.  Everyone that comes up is nervous and can have a crummy game or two getting settled, I can allow for that--no problem.  Problem is, we spend way too much effort trying to get guys to develop and go over the hump in the bigs.  that's what AA is for.

 

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5 hours ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

Sano has had one full year of "good".  He has not played a full season other than that, is hurt constantly, starts slow every year, comes in  overweight and out of shape.  The guy does not take the game seriously enough--he's a get bye'r, not a pro.  He has 1-2 months of solid play every year---problem is the season is much longer than that.  Its been long enough to know the pattern. Not only does he not hit if he can't take it out of the park, he is a defensive liability at 3rd and 1B.  He's not a prospect anymore, he should be delivering daily as a solid starter on this team.  He is still a ? after all these years in the Org.  I don't consider salaries, but he makes more than Polanco.  Worth it for 25-30% of the season we get something from him.  When he's on fire, he is great.  Most of the year he is on the wrong end of the hose, though.  Cut bait, lets expect more 

I just did not see any game that Kiriloff or Larnach played in the outfield where their defensive skillsets looked like major league level.  Bats are not what I am talking about.  Limited range, no quickness and not enough instinctive jump on the balls to get to anything other than avg expectation plays.  They are both big, strong guys, just not high level sweepers you need to create outs and rob hits that win you games.  Gordon was learning fast and has the athletic ability, speed and tools to be a + outfielder.

Celestino looked overmatched in the field, don't know anything about Martin.  

Once again--prospects need to knock down the door and force their way on the field, not be handed chance after chance after chance until the club sees if they can grow into something.  Everyone that comes up is nervous and can have a crummy game or two getting settled, I can allow for that--no problem.  Problem is, we spend way too much effort trying to get guys to develop and go over the hump in the bigs.  that's what AA is for.

 

Prospects are going to have moments of good and moments of bad when they are called up ... unless they are someone like Trout. Celestino had barely played above AA when he was called up because of all the injuries. Doubtful he would have gotten the call when he did otherwise. Not sure it's exactly fair to expect him to be 'knocking down the door' in that situation. However, since going back to AAA, he's been doing really well. Depending on what happens in the off season, he could very well start with the Twins next year, but, if not, he will definitely get his opportunities. I'd still put him in the outfield before Gordon, except for Gordon making spot starts out there.

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36 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Prospects are going to have moments of good and moments of bad when they are called up ... unless they are someone like Trout. Celestino had barely played above AA when he was called up because of all the injuries. Doubtful he would have gotten the call when he did otherwise. Not sure it's exactly fair to expect him to be 'knocking down the door' in that situation. However, since going back to AAA, he's been doing really well. Depending on what happens in the off season, he could very well start with the Twins next year, but, if not, he will definitely get his opportunities. I'd still put him in the outfield before Gordon, except for Gordon making spot starts out there.

And even Mike Trout wasn't great in his first call-up.

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2011 19 LAA AL 40 135 123 20 27 6 0 5 16 4 0 9 30 .220 .281 .390 .672 89 48 2 2 0 1 0 897/HD
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1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

And even Mike Trout wasn't great in his first call-up.

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2011 19 LAA AL 40 135 123 20 27 6 0 5 16 4 0 9 30 .220 .281 .390 .672 89 48 2 2 0 1 0 897/HD

Thanks for doing the research I didn't

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On 9/18/2021 at 3:06 AM, rv78 said:

I don't think we'll see much change for next year in the lineup outside of SS. Garver and Jeffers are locks at C. I think Sano is cementing his position for 1B by having a good September which means Kirilloff will be in the OF when he comes back. Polanco needs/will stay at 2B. Donaldson and Arraez will platoon 3B. Kirilloff, Buck and Kepler will man the OF. Bench will be Rooker, Gordon, Turtle, Cave (groan). This is start of the season with possibly wholesale changes by the trading deadline depending on W/L record at that time, meaning they will be either buyers or sellers. I'm guessing they will be selling due to a weak season of pitching again. 2022 won't be much different than 2021.

I could see this with the exception of Cave.  No way do I see them keeping Cave.  They need RH bats for the OF so Garlick or Refsnyder are much more likely top be retained.  I would see Celestino or even Contreras before Cave.

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