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How quickly we Forget


Mike Sixel
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Message added by Brock Beauchamp,

Please refrain from meta-arguing in this thread. Discuss the topic at hand, address others' posts directly, or just move on from the thread entirely. This isn't a place for commentary on other posters' posting styles, it's a conversation about the front office.

On 9/12/2021 at 10:03 AM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Again, I couldn’t disagree with you more. However I will try to be respectful and conversational about it this time :)

I think the Twins had three good starters coming out of 2016 and going into 2017; a good veteran (Erv), an average but reliable mid-career guy (Gibson) and a promising MLB-ready young guy (Berrios). They had some nice bullpen pieces (Pressly, Rogers and Duffey who are still around). They had an ok prospect pipeline (Graterol et al), not great but not empty. Falvey and Levine came aboard with those guys already in place.

That’s not nothing. 

I will finish by observing that, given all the hope and promise and all that has happened since 2016, that the statistic we are using to judge the new front office today is Earned Run Average. 

Thanks!

Tyler Duffey was a starter in 2016, and pitched to a 6.43 ERA.  As recently as 2018, Duffey pitched 59 innings at AAA--this FO moved him to the bullpen, and made him a weapon, they did not inherit that.

Santana was 34 when the 2017 season started--he was solid, but given the pitching aging curve, it would be reasonable to expect him to decline in the next 1-3 years, which he did (due at least somewhat to injuries).  I don't think you could call Santana a good piece for the future in March 2017--at best he was a good piece for the present.

So here's what the FO got for the future when they took over; a young potential #1/#2, a young #3, and two good-not-great bullpen arms.  You're right, it's not nothing, but let's also not pretend like that situation was somehow playoff-caliber on the surface of it.

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4 hours ago, Number3 said:

This thread is all over the place deep in the weeds. As Bill Parcells said,  "You are what you are." End of story. The Twins "are" 63-80, .441  well into the Falvey - Levine era. Going back and making comparisons does no good. This team is theirs and theirs alone and they clearly have made a bunch of incorrect evaluations. Maybe as Ron Gardenhire once famously said, "I (in this case "they") know nothing about pitching". I will say that when they set the record for home runs in 2019 and 2020 when they played the easiest schedule in the history of MLB were clearly aberrations. Their playoff results, or lack thereof, were proof of that.

The Twins faced 6 teams that made the playoffs in 2020, more than any team from the East or West of either league (at least the ones that made the playoffs).

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21 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

So here's what the FO got for the future when they took over; a young potential #1/#2, a young #3, and two good-not-great bullpen arms.  You're right, it's not nothing, but let's also not pretend like that situation was somehow playoff-caliber on the surface of it.

no need to pretend or not pretend because the Twins did actually make the playoffs in 2017

The 2017 staff that made the postseason was, up and down, was much stronger than the 2019 staff that made the postseason. In other words, more playoff caliber. 

Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco
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23 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

no need to pretend or not pretend because the Twins did actually make the playoffs in 2017

The 2017 staff that made the postseason was, up and down, was much stronger than the 2019 staff that made the postseason. In other words, more playoff caliber. 

These were the relievers in that sole 2017 postseason game:

Jose Berrios (good!)
Trevor Hildenberger (uh... okay that year, I guess but it wasn't going to last)
Taylor Rogers (not particularly good... yet)
Allen Busenitz (yikes, bro)
Matt Belisle (cringes)

There's a reason the 2017 Twins bullpen was 12th in the American League in ERA. It wasn't... what's the word I'm looking for... oh... that's right... it wasn't....

Good.

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6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

These were the relievers in that sole 2017 postseason game:

Jose Berrios (good!)
Trevor Hildenberger (uh... okay that year, I guess)
Taylor Rogers (not particularly good... yet)
Allen Busenitz (yikes, bro)
Matt Belisle (cringes)

There's a reason the 2017 Twins bullpen was 12th in the American League in ERA.

Yeah thats pretty awful, I assume we must have improved, and aren't ranked 12th in the AL in bullpen ERA in 2021! Oh. 

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1 minute ago, flpmagikat said:

Yeah thats pretty awful, I assume we must have improved, and aren't ranked 12th in the AL in bullpen ERA in 2021! Oh. 

1. We weren't talking about this season.

2. The conversation is about what was inherited in 2017 and despite this 2021 bullpen looking like a trashfire for three months, they are currently... 12th... in the American League in ERA.

So, yeah, that's actually a good point you just made for me. The great pitching staff the front office inherited in 2017 included a bullpen that, comparatively speaking, was no better at preventing runs than this "everything that could have gone wrong, did" 2021 bullpen.

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2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

1. We weren't talking about this season.

2. The conversation is about what was inherited in 2017 and despite this 2021 bullpen looking like a trashfire for three months, they are currently... 12th... in the American League in ERA.

So, yeah, that's actually a good point you just made for me. The great pitching staff the front office inherited in 2017 included a bullpen that, comparatively speaking, was no better at preventing runs than this "everything that could have gone wrong, did" 2021 bullpen.

 

Im sorry, maybe I missed your point. You seemed to say the 2017 BP was trash and ranked 12th in the AL, but we've improved, to the point of being 12th in the AL 4 years later. 

there is a reason our bullpen is in just as poor standing this year, and we all seem to have different opinions on why that is. mine is pretty simple: the FO hasn't either had or executed a solid rebuild. 

but im kinda over these discussions. at this point its like politics. if you say you dislike something this FO has done, then you get accused of wanting TR or liking that FO. I think the pitching this last decade has been abysmal, and at the start of a new decade its possibly worse. I think TR left a great core or position players and a few useful pieces on the pitching side. He was a poor GM though. I think Falvine has restocked our pitching in the minors and made some great trades, but I don't want them around past next year at the most. and if their claim to fame is coming and selling off the players that are stars to get more pitchers, because the ones they have aren't working out, due to injury or ineffectiveness, well.

 

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1 minute ago, flpmagikat said:

Im sorry, maybe I missed your point. You seemed to say the 2017 BP was trash and ranked 12th in the AL, but we've improved, to the point of being 12th in the AL 4 years later. 

there is a reason our bullpen is in just as poor standing this year, and we all seem to have different opinions on why that is. mine is pretty simple: the FO hasn't either had or executed a solid rebuild. 

The 2017 bullpen was bad. The 2021 bullpen is bad.

But I was speaking specifically about the quality of the pitching inherited in 2017, which I feel was pretty squarely in the "not very good" category.

As for this front office today, they obviously ****ed up big time this offseason. I think we can all agree about that.

Now it's up to them to not repeat the same mistakes next year. I'll give them a mulligan on a single season but not two in a row.

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26 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

These were the relievers in that sole 2017 postseason game:

Jose Berrios (good!)
Trevor Hildenberger (uh... okay that year, I guess but it wasn't going to last)
Taylor Rogers (not particularly good... yet)
Allen Busenitz (yikes, bro)
Matt Belisle (cringes)

There's a reason the 2017 Twins bullpen was 12th in the American League in ERA. It wasn't... what's the word I'm looking for... oh... that's right... it wasn't....

Good.

Okay, you are not wrong.

However, I guess what stands out to me is going into the 2019 ALDS with two starters. The 2017 team could have at least fielded a rotation had they advanced. For me, honestly, it doesn’t matter who did what or when they did it or why, in 2019. Two starters for that series. I was a converted believer until about the third inning of game two of that series. That’s a big part of where this cynicism comes from. 

I also forgot about the Kintzler trade when I was typing that. That would have made the 2017 postseason bullpen a bit better.

Edit: I realize Dobnak pitched well in his brief debut at the end of 2019, but,... yeah. 

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1 minute ago, flpmagikat said:

Maybe after they sell off buxton and Polanco and rogers and Kepler, and falvine has just its own guys to work with theyll be in a position to succeed.

Like the two years before this, after a LONG RUN of awful Twins' baseball?

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I guess my position is that I don't feel like significant progress has been made. I don't see an influx of young core players that I am confident in. I don't feel like we have ever been a serious AL Championship or World Series contender with this group. I think they have made the Twins mostly watchable and a team that might be able to win the division, but we haven't been nor do I feel we are on the way to being a contender. This organization payrolls and budgets like a mid market squad and yet Minneapolis has a ton of businesses and growth. We still speak about young superstar players like if they are really good we can never afford them long term. That is a poverty franchise mindset. I don't know that anyone has confidence in our minor league system to consistently produce talent even if they may have hope in it. I don't believe managers are a huge impact which means I can go either way with Rocco. 

 

All this said, I am a casual so maybe I am underselling the farm but I don't think I really am. The convo around Berrios and Buxton has really bummed me out as I thought the new stadium was supposed to enable us to retain our young superstar players. Instead, as I said earlier, the convo is that unless they take a below market deal, they are gone. It is just tough for me to be ok with being watchable as the bar for success.

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TBH, and this is not snark, but they had better be a hell of alot more successful after trading those guys than 2 more pathetic postseasons. one where we pitched Dobnak in game 2. Jesus Christ, i know you don't watch this team anymore, and just follow them from a statistical pov. thats cool, but they are't fun to watch, even if their numbers are equally as bad as other years they've been ****ty(and somehow this is a mark in this FO's favor) 

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11 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Okay, you are not wrong.

However, I guess what stands out to me is going into the 2019 ALDS with two starters. The 2017 team could have at least fielded a rotation had they advanced. For me, honestly, it doesn’t matter who did what or when they did it or why, in 2019. Two starters for that series. I was a converted believer until about the third inning of game two of that series. That’s a big part of where this cynicism comes from. 

I also forgot about the Kintzler trade when I was typing that. That would have made the 2017 postseason bullpen a bit better.

Edit: I realize Dobnak pitched well in his brief debut at the end of 2019, but,... yeah. 

I mean, that's not really fair, though. Did the Twins do anything wrong that caused Pineda to be suspended with only 40 games remaining? Did they do anything wrong when Kyle Gibson fell to pieces after the trade deadline?

We can talk about how they didn't do enough at the deadline - and I'd agree - but that team looked damned good on July 31st and were a wreck by October 1st, which was largely out of the front office's control.

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2 minutes ago, flpmagikat said:

TBH, and this is not snark, but they had better be a hell of alot more successful after trading those guys than 2 more pathetic postseasons. one where we pitched Dobnak in game 2. Jesus Christ, i know you don't watch this team anymore, and just follow them from a statistical pov. thats cool, but they are't fun to watch, even if their numbers are equally as bad as other years they've been ****ty(and somehow this is a mark in this FO's favor) 

I understand them not being fun.....I've seen a handful of games. And yes, let's all hope they aren't starting Dobnak in game 2 or 3 of the playoffs......

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2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The Twins ERA- this year is 111--25th in baseball.  Outside of the surprise 2015 contention year, the Twins ERA- from 2011 through 2016 were 112 (27th), 116 (29th), 113 (27th), 118 (30th), and 118 (30th).  From 2011-2016, the Twins ERA- was 113, worst in baseball.  From 2017 to 2021 it was an even 100, 15th in baseball.

Tell me more about how much better the TR Part 2 pitching staff was than our current staff.

ct-gene-wilder-condescending-wonka-meme-

Hmmm, well lets look at what I said, and not the argument you're attempting to create. "The fact we're already likely looking at a lost season in '22." Do you think they're competing next year? I don't....

"And the pitching staff is in worse shape than when this FO took over." 

2017 following their first offseason:

Starters: Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Mejia, Santiago, Colon was added in late July

Bullpen: Pressly, Rogers, Duffey, Belisle, Kintzler

Current Day:

Starters: Ober? Ryan?

Bullpen: Duffey, Jax? Thielbar? Alcala? Gant? Throw in the Rogers injury

There isn't a single sure fire major league pitcher in the rotation right now. They have guys that'll get starts, and the hope is they'll become somebody that can slide in (likely to the back end), but right now it's nothing but question marks. Pineda looks nearly cooked, but you can throw out his and Maeda's injury as uncontrollable and it's still not a better situation. The bullpen looks similar to the rotation, and personally I don't care. Bullpens can be a deck that's constantly shuffled but there should be at least a little stability and outside of Rogers or (maybe) Duffey that's been hard to come by. Go ahead, sell me on the hope of prospects to come, or major offseason acquisitions; the point still stands, the staff is in worse shape now than when this FO started their first season....

Also, I'm glad we're all so well versed in internet culture; the sarcastic ass memes are super cool....

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47 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Hmmm, well lets look at what I said, and not the argument you're attempting to create. "The fact we're already likely looking at a lost season in '22." Do you think they're competing next year? I don't....

"And the pitching staff is in worse shape than when this FO took over." 

2017 following their first offseason:

Starters: Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Mejia, Santiago, Colon was added in late July

Bullpen: Pressly, Rogers, Duffey, Belisle, Kintzler

Current Day:

Starters: Ober? Ryan?

Bullpen: Duffey, Jax? Thielbar? Alcala? Gant? Throw in the Rogers injury

There isn't a single sure fire major league pitcher in the rotation right now. They have guys that'll get starts, and the hope is they'll become somebody that can slide in (likely to the back end), but right now it's nothing but question marks. Pineda looks nearly cooked, but you can throw out his and Maeda's injury as uncontrollable and it's still not a better situation. The bullpen looks similar to the rotation, and personally I don't care. Bullpens can be a deck that's constantly shuffled but there should be at least a little stability and outside of Rogers or (maybe) Duffey that's been hard to come by. Go ahead, sell me on the hope of prospects to come, or major offseason acquisitions; the point still stands, the staff is in worse shape now than when this FO started their first season....

Also, I'm glad we're all so well versed in internet culture; the sarcastic ass memes are super cool....

Wow, lots of angst here--you said the current pitching staff is in worse shape than in 2017 when Falvine took over.  That's not an argument I'm attempting to make, those are your own words.  The 2021 Twins pitching has been, relative to the league, better in 2021 than for the entirety of the SIX YEAR 2011-2016 timeframe, and better than all but one of those individual seasons.  You can argue that the future pitching staff for 2017 was better than the future pitching staff is for 2021, but I also think that's off.

Santana--was 34 in 2017, and had just put up a FIP- only 10% better than 32 year old "nearly cooked" Pineda has this year.  In 2017, his FIP- was 101, and he spent 3 years not pitching/awful before somehow rebounding this year.  That last part is hindsight, but it demonstrates the point--34 year old good-not-great starters should not be counted on for more than the next season--not a great future asset.

Gibson--was 29 in 2017, and had 3 straight years of 25-30 starts, only once below 100 on FIP-, and that was at 97.  Not a great future asset, and in fact, he didn't start to look good until 2018 (read--after Falvine had been able to work with him)

Berrios--turned 23 in 2017, and had just finished a season where he put up a FIP- of 144 (for what it's worth, Shoemaker's FIP- this year was 153).  Obviously there was still plenty of promise there given his age and lack of experience, but he also struck out only 7.5/9 in 2016, while walking 5.4/9.  An uncertain future asset at that point, and given his immediate improvement in both k and bb rate once Falvine came on board, are we really so sure they shouldn't get some credit for helping Jose take the next step?

Mejia--had 2 IP in MLB in 2016.  Nice track record in the minors, and reason for hope, but let's not pretend he was locked in as a quality starting option.  If you're going to include Mejia as a positive for 2017, then you have to include Duran, Balazovic, Winder, SWR, and Strotman for 2021 as well.

Santiago--had a 125 FIP- in 2016; J.A. Happ in 2021 is at 126.  Are you saying a 29 year old who essentially replicated J.A. Happ's 2021 season was a quality piece moving forward?

Colon--was added halfway through 2017, by Falvine.

Duffey--was still a full-time starter, and had a 110 FIP-.  As such, he was not a potential good piece for the bullpen, any more than any generic starting pitcher is a potential good piece for a bullpen.

Pressly, Rogers, and Kintzler--all three were good not great (87, 82, and 83 FIP-.  2021 Caleb Thielbar has an 82 FIP-).  Rogers didn't become what he is until 2018 (read--after Falvine had been able to work with him).

Belisle--was signed in free agency prior to the 2017 season, by Falvine.

So of the 11 pitchers you mentioned, 2 were actually acquired by Falvine, 1 was a completely unproven minor leaguer, 3 were young starters who hadn't established themselves yet, 1 was a thoroughly mediocre vet, 1 was a solid but old vet, and 3 were good-not-great bullpen options.

This idea that Falvine was handed the makings of a championship staff is ludicrous--the staff improved because Falvine helped them improve.  We're also not worse off now than in 2017, given the $40m-$60M available to spend this offseason, the passel of starters coming up through the system at AA or above, and the collection of potential relief options under team control for next year (Rogers, Gant, Farrell, and Coulombe all have FIP- better than the PRK trio in 2016, with Thielbar, Duffey, and Stashak better than Pressly).

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3 hours ago, chopper0080 said:

This organization payrolls and budgets like a mid market squad and yet Minneapolis has a ton of businesses and growth.

At the end of the day, you need people to come to your games/watch them on TV.  The Minneapolis metro area is 3.5M--here are some others;

Chicago--9.5M (call it 4.75M per team)

New York--20.3M (call it 10.1M per team)

Los Angeles--12.5M (call it 6.2M per team)

Boston--4.9M

Philadelphia--5.7M

Atlanta--5.9M

DC--5.4M

Houston--7.1M

Toronto--6.3M

Phoenix--4.6M

Dallas--6.4M

That's 14 teams that have at least 1M more fans in their metro areas than the Twins--9 have at least 2M more.  The Twins payroll and budget like a mid-market squad because they are one.

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4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Hmmm, well lets look at what I said, and not the argument you're attempting to create. "The fact we're already likely looking at a lost season in '22." Do you think they're competing next year? I don't....

"And the pitching staff is in worse shape than when this FO took over." 

2017 following their first offseason:

Starters: Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Mejia, Santiago, Colon was added in late July

Bullpen: Pressly, Rogers, Duffey, Belisle, Kintzler

Current Day:

Starters: Ober? Ryan?

Bullpen: Duffey, Jax? Thielbar? Alcala? Gant? Throw in the Rogers injury

There isn't a single sure fire major league pitcher in the rotation right now. They have guys that'll get starts, and the hope is they'll become somebody that can slide in (likely to the back end), but right now it's nothing but question marks. Pineda looks nearly cooked, but you can throw out his and Maeda's injury as uncontrollable and it's still not a better situation. The bullpen looks similar to the rotation, and personally I don't care. Bullpens can be a deck that's constantly shuffled but there should be at least a little stability and outside of Rogers or (maybe) Duffey that's been hard to come by. Go ahead, sell me on the hope of prospects to come, or major offseason acquisitions; the point still stands, the staff is in worse shape now than when this FO started their first season....

Also, I'm glad we're all so well versed in internet culture; the sarcastic ass memes are super cool....

So your answer to a post about inherited talent (to which you frequently erred in assessing to add a cherry on top) was to compare 2017 to 2021 when no one is making that argument?

The Twins were not left with much talent.  What was done to get to 2019 and 2020's significant improvement is owed largely to savvy moves that dramatically improved the team by this FO.

The 2021 failure is due to a lot of crappy moves by that same FO that EVERYONE AGREES WERE CRAPPY.  I hope the all caps puts that twisted argument to bed.

Sarcastic ass memes would be less necessary if we all stayed inside reality.  Anyone celebrating the state of the post-2016 Twins on the pitching front isn't doing that.  It's the entire point of contention and it is demonstrably nonsensical.

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On 9/11/2021 at 9:56 AM, Ben B said:

One thing really starting to annoy me is the players they've given away: Wade, Baddoo, Nick Anderson, Luis Gil, Huascar Ynoa, Tyler Wells.

This is the HUGE red flag I have with this FO. It won't matter how good your farm system is if you can't evaluate who to keep and whom to unload. They have put this team in an MLB-ready talent deficit for 2021-22 and this wasn't even the result of going all-in at the trade deadline during their playoff years. They lost these players for absolutely nothing - feeding talent to our competitors. 

My perception is limited, and could be wrong. But it seems to me that the infrastructure changes they've made to the organization are probably what any new FO would have done to keep up with the times, and their internal assessment mistakes don't seem like the kinds of blunders most FOs would have made. The Giants, for example, have absolutely fleeced this FO in trades.

And I even think it's okay for fans to at some point make something clear: playoff wins matter for keeping your job here. The failure to make a postseason run is beyond ridiculous at this point. No, not all of those losses are this FO's fault, but they own a good chunk of it now, and with a more solid farm system and much higher payroll than their predecessors had. Failure comes with consequences at some point, regardless of how much a team's ERA has improved.

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9 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

 

Sarcastic ass memes would be less necessary if we all stayed inside reality.  Anyone celebrating the state of the post-2016 Twins on the pitching front isn't doing that.  It's the entire point of contention and it is demonstrably nonsensical.

It's stuff like that makes discussions impossible. It's either the Twins had no pitching when the new guys took over or they had a great pitching system. It's either you think the FO is doing well or you think they are clueless idiots. Jesus. Everyone has to go to extremes. No one ever wants to concede or even accept the other side might have a point.

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The Falvey/Levine/Baldelli Twins ARE now 63-81 thanks to yesterday's debacle highlighted by BS Colome a Falvine-Levine trade mark. Today 2 against the Indians. I wonder what the new Twins ARE will be. Really don't understand all of this historical analysis. I remember the 1959 Senators who gave the Yankees fits. Evidently that hasn't carried over and yesterday's blown 5-0 lead says more about this team and management than going back 4 or 5 years can ever do.

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1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

It's stuff like that makes discussions impossible. It's either the Twins had no pitching when the new guys took over or they had a great pitching system. It's either you think the FO is doing well or you think they are clueless idiots. Jesus. Everyone has to go to extremes. No one ever wants to concede or even accept the other side might have a point.

See....I only see one "extreme" being argued completely devoid of fact and that's your stance.  Certainly, the Ryan regime left the FO Berrios and Santana.  There were one or two other guys that occupied spots (as in, they weren't all that good) or were moved to the bullpen and became contributors, but largely the staff was not good.  This is born out by facts and statistics.  Your argument is not.  You're right that the new guys inherited some nice bats, but they supplemented them well also.  Pitching?  That required a nearly total makeover to get to where the team was in 2019 and 2020.

I don't understand why you and others continue to try and put lipstick on the pig that is Terry Ryan's pitching farm system circa 2017.  There is no evidence to sustain that point of view.  To that point: do you realize you haven't made a sustained statistic, metric, or evidential argument yet in this thread?  The next time you do, will be the first time in this thread.  The closest I've found is quoting prospect rankings. Meanwhile, the people that are saying "look, there were a few guys, but mostly nobody" continue to site ACTUAL DATA to support them.  And have done so for pages while you and others employ almost none.  I would suggest to you that the extreme is the edge you're standing on.  Perhaps if you'd come back from that ledge you'd see there could be agreement.

But anyone looking at the numbers is going to tell you that you're wrong if you're going to argue 2017 had a bountiful pitching harvest just waiting for the new guys.  There isn't room to compromise with a view that has no factual merit whatsoever.  Soften your stance a bit and then maybe that could change.

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On 9/10/2021 at 12:31 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'm continually confused by statements that the FO has "no idea what it is doing" "they never make good decisions" etc...............

They literally won the division the last two years. 

They may have won the Division but did not win a play-off game.  What's the fun in that.  You could also argue the Central division is an easier Division.  I was expecting them to easily win this year.  FO bringing in Shoemaker and Happ were critical errors.  Losing Berrios and potentially losing Buxton would be another reason.  

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1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

It's stuff like that makes discussions impossible. It's either the Twins had no pitching when the new guys took over or they had a great pitching system. It's either you think the FO is doing well or you think they are clueless idiots. Jesus. Everyone has to go to extremes. No one ever wants to concede or even accept the other side might have a point.

You're right.  Your post should be pinned to the top of this thread.

People are getting very emotional.  Some of us are trying to write thoughtful responses, which are either ignored by those who disagree or are used as attack fodder.  In the meantime, some people are just repeating themselves while (purposely?) misinterpreting what others are saying.

People may not realize it, but when I see someone behaving like that on a forum, I picture that person being about an inch tall.  Not only is the aggression not intimidating, but it has the opposite effect they are intending.  

This advice isn't new, but if you can't be respectful, it's time to close the browser and go and do something else.  There is no place for attacks or putting words into other people's mouths, on TwinsDaily or anywhere in my opinion.  

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5 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

You're right.  Your post should be pinned to the top of this thread.

People are getting very emotional.  Some of us are trying to write thoughtful responses, which are either ignored by those who disagree or are used as attack fodder.  In the meantime, some people are just repeating themselves while (purposely?) misinterpreting what others are saying.

People may not realize it, but when I see someone behaving like that on a forum, I picture that person being about an inch tall.  Not only is the aggression not intimidating, but it has the opposite effect they are intending.  

This advice isn't new, but if you can't be respectful, it's time to close the browser and go and do something else.  There is no place for attacks or putting words into other people's mouths, on TwinsDaily or anywhere in my opinion.  

Okay, enough meta-arguing. Please return to the topic at hand, address that, or just move on from the thread entirely. This isn't a place for commentary on other posters' posting styles, it's a conversation about the front office.

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11 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is the HUGE red flag I have with this FO. It won't matter how good your farm system is if you can't evaluate who to keep and whom to unload. They have put this team in an MLB-ready talent deficit for 2021-22 and this wasn't even the result of going all-in at the trade deadline during their playoff years. They lost these players for absolutely nothing - feeding talent to our competitors. 

My perception is limited, and could be wrong. But it seems to me that the infrastructure changes they've made to the organization are probably what any new FO would have done to keep up with the times, and their internal assessment mistakes don't seem like the kinds of blunders most FOs would have made. The Giants, for example, have absolutely fleeced this FO in trades.

And I even think it's okay for fans to at some point make something clear: playoff wins matter for keeping your job here. The failure to make a postseason run is beyond ridiculous at this point. No, not all of those losses are this FO's fault, but they own a good chunk of it now, and with a more solid farm system and much higher payroll than their predecessors had. Failure comes with consequences at some point, regardless of how much a team's ERA has improved.

As far as I'm aware, the Twins have transacted two trades with SF--one sent Davis, Berroa, and Teng for Dyson.  While Dyson was a disaster, that was injury related, and none of the players the Twins sent have amounted to much.  Davis has a 32 wRC+ in parts of 3 seasons with the Giants, and is 27--we have a better, younger option in Brent Rooker.  Berros is 21 in Low A, and has a nice 3.28 ERA, and has struck out 133 in 96 innings--but has also walked 48.  Teng is 22 in High A, and has a pedestrian 4.57 ERA, and while he's struck out 130 in 88 innings, he's walked 52.  Neither of them look like more than organizational filler at this point (that could obviously change).  Hardly a fleecing.

The Anderson for Wade trade is clearly a bad one--that happens to even the best FO's (witness the Twins nabbing Odorizzi from the Rays for Palacios).  That said--Wade is already 27, there's already some potential erosion in his contact rates.  He still only has 300ish PA's on the season because he's completely unusable against lefties (.376 OPS, 32.4% k rate, NINE wRC+--he's been so bad SF has only given him 37 PA's all year against lefties).  So essentially you're saying SF fleeced us by getting a 27 year old platoon corner outfielder (he has 13 innings in center this year, with a -117 UZR/150--SSS), at a position group where the Twins should have better options in Kiriloff, Larnach, Celestino, Lewis (maybe), Arraez, and Buxton (hopefully) for the next 3-5 years?  The issue isn't that we traded Wade, it's that we didn't identify the right player to get in return.

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Great arguments here guys on both sides.  I don't think we should dump any of them after this year. However, we are in last place in the division.  It seems we have had a rotten season that everyone wants to ignore or shun any responsibility for.  Does anyone in the organization care that their team is rotten?  Without some talent infusion this off season, next year is already a washout.

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16 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Wow, lots of angst here--you said the current pitching staff is in worse shape than in 2017 when Falvine took over.  That's not an argument I'm attempting to make, those are your own words.  The 2021 Twins pitching has been, relative to the league, better in 2021 than for the entirety of the SIX YEAR 2011-2016 timeframe, and better than all but one of those individual seasons.  You can argue that the future pitching staff for 2017 was better than the future pitching staff is for 2021, but I also think that's off.

Santana--was 34 in 2017, and had just put up a FIP- only 10% better than 32 year old "nearly cooked" Pineda has this year.  In 2017, his FIP- was 101, and he spent 3 years not pitching/awful before somehow rebounding this year.  That last part is hindsight, but it demonstrates the point--34 year old good-not-great starters should not be counted on for more than the next season--not a great future asset.

Gibson--was 29 in 2017, and had 3 straight years of 25-30 starts, only once below 100 on FIP-, and that was at 97.  Not a great future asset, and in fact, he didn't start to look good until 2018 (read--after Falvine had been able to work with him)

Berrios--turned 23 in 2017, and had just finished a season where he put up a FIP- of 144 (for what it's worth, Shoemaker's FIP- this year was 153).  Obviously there was still plenty of promise there given his age and lack of experience, but he also struck out only 7.5/9 in 2016, while walking 5.4/9.  An uncertain future asset at that point, and given his immediate improvement in both k and bb rate once Falvine came on board, are we really so sure they shouldn't get some credit for helping Jose take the next step?

Mejia--had 2 IP in MLB in 2016.  Nice track record in the minors, and reason for hope, but let's not pretend he was locked in as a quality starting option.  If you're going to include Mejia as a positive for 2017, then you have to include Duran, Balazovic, Winder, SWR, and Strotman for 2021 as well.

Santiago--had a 125 FIP- in 2016; J.A. Happ in 2021 is at 126.  Are you saying a 29 year old who essentially replicated J.A. Happ's 2021 season was a quality piece moving forward?

Colon--was added halfway through 2017, by Falvine.

Duffey--was still a full-time starter, and had a 110 FIP-.  As such, he was not a potential good piece for the bullpen, any more than any generic starting pitcher is a potential good piece for a bullpen.

Pressly, Rogers, and Kintzler--all three were good not great (87, 82, and 83 FIP-.  2021 Caleb Thielbar has an 82 FIP-).  Rogers didn't become what he is until 2018 (read--after Falvine had been able to work with him).

Belisle--was signed in free agency prior to the 2017 season, by Falvine.

So of the 11 pitchers you mentioned, 2 were actually acquired by Falvine, 1 was a completely unproven minor leaguer, 3 were young starters who hadn't established themselves yet, 1 was a thoroughly mediocre vet, 1 was a solid but old vet, and 3 were good-not-great bullpen options.

This idea that Falvine was handed the makings of a championship staff is ludicrous--the staff improved because Falvine helped them improve.  We're also not worse off now than in 2017, given the $40m-$60M available to spend this offseason, the passel of starters coming up through the system at AA or above, and the collection of potential relief options under team control for next year (Rogers, Gant, Farrell, and Coulombe all have FIP- better than the PRK trio in 2016, with Thielbar, Duffey, and Stashak better than Pressly).

No, my argument is pretty pointed so I don't think angst is an app description. Annoyance is more accurate, but I suppose that was the reaction you intended to elicit, so congrats, you win the internet.

Why is this hard? It's about the staff this FO rolled out to begin their tenure vs right now. I don't care how many awful TR staffs you lump into this meaningless league average argument.

They're straight up lists. Nothing more. Why would I bang the drum for Santiago or Colon? It's a snapshot of where this team is/was at each moment. Remove Berrios from the sure fire major leaguer list and say they only had 2 in the '17 rotation, but that's still 2 more than they currently have. All three of the "good not great," bullpen arms would've been the best arm the current pen has. For those of you who don't believe this FO inherited any talent it should be even less excusable that the current group doesn't stack up. Again, sell me on the future. Who knows maybe some of the wishful thinking comes to fruition; I hope it does.

They clearly weren't gifted a championship, and I haven't seen a single post that suggests they were. We can probably put the hyperbolic statements to bed right? Selectively choosing where to attribute developmental success isn't a road worth traveling.

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