Jump to content
  • Create Account

How quickly we Forget


Mike Sixel
 Share

Message added by Brock Beauchamp,

Please refrain from meta-arguing in this thread. Discuss the topic at hand, address others' posts directly, or just move on from the thread entirely. This isn't a place for commentary on other posters' posting styles, it's a conversation about the front office.

42 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

 

I really don’t know what’s going on in this photo or how this stands as a reply to the case presented that the front office inherited some pitching talent to work with. 

I will repost:

“Ynoa and Gil and Wells look ok in the majors. Ynoa's legit. Gil could just be off to a hot start, ala Duffey, but he's only 23 and making starts for a playoff contender...

“Graterol was a consistent top 100 prospect, debuted at 20, and was the centerpiece in the Maeda trade. Romero was a top 100 prospect under this FO. Gonsalves was as well, two years under this FO, and then hurt his arm, IIRC. Stewart and Jay were top 100 prospects but not under this FO.

“... the FO inherited a good system with some pitching depth.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I really don’t know what’s going on in this photo or how this stands as a reply to the case presented that the front office inherited some pitching talent to work with. 

It’s a meme based on this video. I’m sure you can glean the sarcastic intent of the meme after watching the clip.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

They aren't good? This is demonstratively not true. Ynoa and Gil, Wells, Graterol, Stewart, Romero, Jay, Gonsalves, were the minor league pitchers I mentioned. Ynoa and Gil and Wells look ok in the majors. Ynoa's legit. Gil could just be off to a hot start, ala Duffey, but he's only 23 and making starts for a playoff contender. Must be nice.

Graterol was a consistent top 100 prospect, debuted at 20, and was the centerpiece in the Maeda trade. Romero was a top 100 prospect under this FO. Gonsalves was as well, two years under this FO, and then hurt his arm, IIRC. Stewart and Jay were top 100 prospects but not under this FO. But the FO inherited a good system with some pitching depth. It doesn't make sense to keep denying this. They were dealt a nice starting hand.

So trading one for Maeda was wrong? You have to deal talent to get talent. But no, we don't agree at all they were dealt a good pitching hand. Not at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/10/2021 at 3:29 PM, h2oface said:

I find it pretty sad to watch folks force themselves to get excited about pitchers like Ober and Dobnak.

Agree with Dobnak but Ober? Ober pretty clearly a lot better than Dobnak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/11/2021 at 10:10 AM, Squirrel said:

This might be true ... but I really doubt it.

It's not just fans who believe the Twins' front office appeared to have no plan; analysts are on record leading up to the trade deadline speculating the very same thing. The front offices moves made during the trade period didn't make sense because they didn't follow what an analyst would expect based on a clear plan. Rebuild? Short retool? Still committed to 2022? What black hole spots in the roster could the Twins potentially fill internally? None of those questions were being answered.

I don't care. They don't absolutely need a plan. Maybe they have one now? Like I said, if they do, there isn't much I'd expect to see at this time of year which would give clues to their intent, but the offseason moves will dictate a lot.

I'm not on record saying Falvey should be let go and I've also seen very little of that on the site. I don't think his termination is justified right now. It would be nice if people stopped trying to paint any and all criticism of Falvey as calls for his termination, though. Guess that's just a sign of the ages. Everything has to be polarized.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's not just fans who believe the Twins' front office appeared to have no plan; analysts are on record leading up to the trade deadline speculating the very same thing. The front offices moves made during the trade period didn't make sense because they didn't follow what an analyst would expect based on a clear plan. Rebuild? Short retool? Still committed to 2022? What black hole spots in the roster could the Twins potentially fill internally? None of those questions were being answered.

I don't care. They don't absolutely need a plan. Maybe they have one now? Like I said, if they do, there isn't much I'd expect to see at this time of year which would give clues to their intent, but the offseason moves will dictate a lot.

I'm not on record saying Falvey should be let go and I've also seen very little of that on the site. I don't think his termination is justified right now. It would be nice if people stopped trying to paint any and all criticism of Falvey as calls for his termination, though. Guess that's just a sign of the ages. Everything has to be polarized.

We're actually pretty close in opinion on this, I suspect.... where you're slightly bearish on the front office, I'm slightly bullish but we agree there are problems that need to be resolved.

But one thing I think everyone here should be able to agree on is that neither Falvey nor Levine are idiots.

And if they're not idiots running a billion dollar organization, I'm able to infer that they do, in fact, have a larger plan they are orchestrating, even if I can't see it clearly from where I'm standing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's not just fans who believe the Twins' front office appeared to have no plan; analysts are on record leading up to the trade deadline speculating the very same thing. The front offices moves made during the trade period didn't make sense because they didn't follow what an analyst would expect based on a clear plan. Rebuild? Short retool? Still committed to 2022? What black hole spots in the roster could the Twins potentially fill internally? None of those questions were being answered.

I don't care. They don't absolutely need a plan. Maybe they have one now? Like I said, if they do, there isn't much I'd expect to see at this time of year which would give clues to their intent, but the offseason moves will dictate a lot.

I'm not on record saying Falvey should be let go and I've also seen very little of that on the site. I don't think his termination is justified right now. It would be nice if people stopped trying to paint any and all criticism of Falvey as calls for his termination, though. Guess that's just a sign of the ages. Everything has to be polarized.

What analysts are you talking about. Every one I read said it made sense to deal Berrios. They admitted they didn't know if the FO planned to rebuild or retool, but that in no way implies they don't have a plan. Hell, they might have changed their plan when Maeda went down. Changing your plan as the result of events makes you smart, not wishy washy.

As for the FO, I want to be clear here.....I don't love their drafts. And, the jury is out on their ability. But that's not the point of this thread. People are literally posting they don't know poop about pitching, and only sell the future.

They took the ERA from one of the worst, to top 10 in short order....they won two divisions. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They took the ERA from one of the worst, to top 10 in short order....they won two divisions. 

Agreed, and if we look at 2021 are just as quickly taking that staff back down the list as well as into last place in the division.  Next year is make or break - either your example of Top 10 staffs and division titles is representative (and if so awesome!!), or the lower rung staff and no playoffs is where we are at.

My personal view is the later as I just haven't seen this FO ability to sign quality FA pitchers.  I truly hope I am wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, sjunisu said:

Agreed, and if we look at 2021 are just as quickly taking that staff back down the list as well as into last place in the division.  Next year is make or break - either your example of Top 10 staffs and division titles is representative (and if so awesome!!), or the lower rung staff and no playoffs is where we are at.

My personal view is the later as I just haven't seen this FO ability to sign quality FA pitchers.  I truly hope I am wrong.

If they are better than this year, say, around 15th....that's plenty for me. I don't expect miracles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's not just fans who believe the Twins' front office appeared to have no plan; analysts are on record leading up to the trade deadline speculating the very same thing. The front offices moves made during the trade period didn't make sense because they didn't follow what an analyst would expect based on a clear plan. Rebuild? Short retool? Still committed to 2022? What black hole spots in the roster could the Twins potentially fill internally? None of those questions were being answered.

I don't care. They don't absolutely need a plan. Maybe they have one now? Like I said, if they do, there isn't much I'd expect to see at this time of year which would give clues to their intent, but the offseason moves will dictate a lot.

I'm not on record saying Falvey should be let go and I've also seen very little of that on the site. I don't think his termination is justified right now. It would be nice if people stopped trying to paint any and all criticism of Falvey as calls for his termination, though. Guess that's just a sign of the ages. Everything has to be polarized.

And, we don’t even need to go to the analysts.

Jim Pohlad went on air and unequivocally said Yes the Twins were in financial position to extend Berrios and Buxton. That was at the All Star break when the season was already lost. Jim Souhan and LaVelle E. Neal III did a podcast about how the front office viewed this season as an outlier and there was no way they were going to trade Buxton or Berrios—unless they were blown out of the water. That was around the same time, leading up to the trade deadline.

“They know this season was an aberration with some bad luck at the start. Anyone who thinks they are going to trade Berrios or Buxton, doesn’t know how this front office thinks.” I think something like that was the consensus on the podcast. 

Also @bean5302 thanks for the check. If my posts have sounded polarizing, I will try to back off a bit. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They took the ERA from one of the worst, to top 10 in short order....they won two divisions. 

Again, I couldn’t disagree with you more. However I will try to be respectful and conversational about it this time :)

I think the Twins had three good starters coming out of 2016 and going into 2017; a good veteran (Erv), an average but reliable mid-career guy (Gibson) and a promising MLB-ready young guy (Berrios). They had some nice bullpen pieces (Pressly, Rogers and Duffey who are still around). They had an ok prospect pipeline (Graterol et al), not great but not empty. Falvey and Levine came aboard with those guys already in place.

That’s not nothing. 

I will finish by observing that, given all the hope and promise and all that has happened since 2016, that the statistic we are using to judge the new front office today is Earned Run Average. 

Thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the on thing that is verifiably true is that Front Office has done much better than the second time around Ryan Front Office. Now, is it good enough to take the Twins to consistently competitive and win a World Series or two? The jury is still out. The positives - pitching pipeline is starting to hit with Ober and hopefully Winder and Balazovic, decent early returns on drafts with Kirilloff, and they made two good prospect trades with the Blue Jays and Rays. The negatives - too many reclamation projects in the bullpen, very poor evaluation of potential veteran starters this year with Happ and Shoemaker, and an inability to re-sign Berrios or as of yet extend Buxton (although ownership may share in that failure). The Ryan group had to go for the Twins to move forward. This group is better. Not sure if it's good enough. 

To me, the criticism that this FO has not signed a top FA pitcher is simply unfair and ignores the real problems we have in the FA market. We don't get top FA pitchers because we aren't willing to pay the freight and because the players would rather go to the markets where the ancillary money opportunities are better and the weather is better. We didn't sign Berrios because we weren't willing to pay him what he wanted. Someone else will and that is the reality of the FA market. You want a top FA starter? Prices start at 20m - 25m a year for multiple years. You don't want to pay that for a guy who maybe isn't a top 5 or 6 pitcher or a guy who's been hurt in the past because of the risk? Then you don't get anybody.  Marcus Stroman next year. $20m plus for at least 3-5 years. And that's before we consider the fact that he could make another $3-$5m in endorsement income if he's personable enough and goes to LA, NY or Chicago and there's lots of places he can go where it isn't snowing in April. The Twins are probably going to have to overpay for a top tier free agent starter. Bottom line, if you're not willing to pay for a Mercedes, get off the lot.  You have to pay and then pay again if the first guy stinks or gets hurt if you want to play with the big boys in free agency. We don't do that and that's not on the FO, that's on ownership. 

Sorry to go on a rant there. I just think we have to judge this FO on what the best (and perhaps only) way for Twins to compete; Drafting and development of our own young players, particularly pitchers. The grade so far is incomplete because they haven't yet had quite enough time. We'll know pretty well by the end of the 2022 season where we stand on the development side.  That's when we can judge and that's the criteria to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Again, I couldn’t disagree with you more. However I will try to be respectful and conversational about it this time :)

I think the Twins had three good starters coming out of 2016 and going into 2017; a good veteran (Erv), an average but reliable mid-career guy (Gibson) and a promising MLB-ready young guy (Berrios). They had some nice bullpen pieces (Pressly, Rogers and Duffey who are still around). They had an ok prospect pipeline (Graterol et al), not great but not empty. Falvey and Levine came aboard with those guys already in place.

That’s not nothing. 

I will finish by observing that, given all the hope and promise and all that has happened since 2016, that the statistic we are using to judge the new front office today is Earned Run Average. 

Thanks!

Happy to use fwar if you want.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/10/2021 at 2:18 PM, gunnarthor said:

yet the FO would look a lot smarter if they hadn't let Ynoa, Gil, Curtiss, Chargois, Baddoo, Wade, Anderson, etc go. And if they hadn't wasted their many #1 picks. Remember, this FO has said that they saving money and playing games with the draft pool lets them acquire more first round talents, like Enlow. It hasn't really worked out yet.

Lastly, we haven't really talked about how this FO has failed to spend the money it has that the previous regimes didn't have. So even the free agency failures aren't really comparable.

This is right where I am. I'm not currently calling for their jobs, but I don't think they're a top FO and I think there might be better out there. Way too many unnecessary mistakes - many of which did not require a crystal ball to sense a bad outcome.

Generally poor free agents signings outside of Cruz, and abjectly terrible - TERRIBLE - at adding talent for a playoff run.

And postseason winning percentage for the teams they've assembled? .000. Not acceptable. I'd still like them to do well, and to make good on their goals here, but I don't understand the odd loyalty many seem to have to them at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/10/2021 at 9:03 PM, Mike Sixel said:

They had ample talent, but they aren't good at bringing in talent......ok.

You completely ignored the whole part about results.... Winning the division two straight years. Dropping the team ERA from awful to great. 

Are either of those indicative of them being idiots who only sell the future?

I feel like you are responding to something that I did not write.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/11/2021 at 12:00 PM, Mike Sixel said:

People call them stupid, clueless, idiots, people without a plan, etc. everyday on this board. Every day. 

I guess this is how you are interpreting what people are saying.  The Twins certainly have a plan.  I don't recall anyone being called stupid or idiotic.  

Many of the on field decisions this year I classify as bizarre.  Since day 1 of the season, a lot of the decisions have been nonsensical.  Some of the signings last offseason were nonsensical.  How they are rebuilding the bullpen every year always seemed nonsensical, but it worked until now. 

You could read this as someone calling them clueless or idiotic, I suppose, but that's not really what's being said.  When someone disagrees with an approach, it does not mean that person thinks the other is unintelligent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thread is all over the place deep in the weeds. As Bill Parcells said,  "You are what you are." End of story. The Twins "are" 63-80, .441  well into the Falvey - Levine era. Going back and making comparisons does no good. This team is theirs and theirs alone and they clearly have made a bunch of incorrect evaluations. Maybe as Ron Gardenhire once famously said, "I (in this case "they") know nothing about pitching". I will say that when they set the record for home runs in 2019 and 2020 when they played the easiest schedule in the history of MLB were clearly aberrations. Their playoff results, or lack thereof, were proof of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where did that talent come from? Some is surely do to this front office?

Yes.  

Note that what you are trying to walk me to does not invalidate what I wrote earlier, at all.  We are in apples and oranges territory.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/10/2021 at 4:54 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

The fact that we're already likely looking at a lost season in '22 and the pitching staff is in worse shape then when this FO took over says it all. 

The Twins ERA- this year is 111--25th in baseball.  Outside of the surprise 2015 contention year, the Twins ERA- from 2011 through 2016 were 112 (27th), 116 (29th), 113 (27th), 118 (30th), and 118 (30th).  From 2011-2016, the Twins ERA- was 113, worst in baseball.  From 2017 to 2021 it was an even 100, 15th in baseball.

Tell me more about how much better the TR Part 2 pitching staff was than our current staff.

ct-gene-wilder-condescending-wonka-meme-

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/10/2021 at 5:24 PM, bean5302 said:

I'm not remotely upset. I'm saying those are the guys who should be used to judge Falvey's drafts. I think the verdict will be in on many of them next year. It's not like players need to play at the MLB level for them to be considered busts. If Lewis plays at A+/AA next year with a .600 OPS, he'll be judged as a bust. If Cavaco has another year in 2022 like he's had this year, he'll be written off as a bust. If Larnach can't find his bat at AAA, he'll be written off as a bust. If Sabato can't figure out how to stop striking out at a 40% clip in the low minors next year, he'll be written off as a bust.

Baseball drafts are a crap shoot one player at a time, not multiple consecutive draft classes at a time.

I never mentioned Lewis--yes, if the first overall pick from the 2017 draft is OPSing .600 in A+/AA 5 years after being drafted, that's bad--considering he had a .661 OPS in 2019 at A+/AA, I think that's pretty unlikely (especially since he OPS'd over .900 in the AFL at the conclusion of that year).  Cavaco was drafted as a high risk pick--there was always a good likelihood he wouldn't translate, but if he did, he could be an all-star caliber shortstop for a few years.  This is Sabato's first go-around in pro ball, as there was no MiLB last year--he struggled to start, but has OPS'd 1.026 in August, and .828 so far in September, so there's a positive trend there.  Larnach hit a huge slump, but there is nothing in his track record to suggest he can't recover.  If all 4 of these guys fail, but Ober, Jeffers, Soularie, Steer, etc. come up and become solid regulars, you can't say multiple consecutive draft classes have failed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/10/2021 at 7:14 PM, RpR said:

You do forget in 2019 we had Cruz, Schoop , Cron and Gonzalez , who had a career year, which is a main reason the Twins were as good as they were; They are all gone now.

Schoop and Cron are doing very well for their current team.

Schoop has a .761 OPS, and 1.4 WAR, while being a negative defensively and on the basepaths.  CJ Cron gets to hit at Coors (1.080 OPS at home, .741 on the road)--I wouldn't characterize either as doing "very well".  I'd say they've been fine for what they are, which is players you don't mind having on your roster, but would have no problem replacing if something better came along, which is exactly a high bar to clear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/11/2021 at 6:22 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

I'm firmly on the fence with this FO.  They DID inherit a solid core, and YEARS of BAD Twins teams under Terry Ryan had helped stock the minor leagues with high draft picks.  This FO took a Twins team that Molitor miraculously guided to a playoff spot in 2016 (and earned him Manager of the Year) and then completely spit the bit in that off-season to gift Twins fans with the abomination that was 2017.  They DID win back to back division titles in 2019 & 2020 but continued the Twins inability to even win ONE playoff game since the early 2000's (I would add that the FO's inability to make any kind of big splash in either 2019 or 2020 at the trade deadline didn't help either).  And it's fair to point out that as a whole, the division was at a low point in those years.  The division title was ripe for the taking.  And now we see the fruits of a disastrous off season that saw our division rival White Sox completely checkmate us in every conceivable move, trade, acquisition.  This FO has an "incomplete" report card.  They COMPLETELY FAILED in 2017 and THIS year.  A bad move here or there can be excused, in fact, should be expected and accepted.  Nobody bats 1.000 in personnel decisions.  But I maintain this FO has had those two real clunkers and frankly with "analytics" guiding us, I expected better.  I didn't expect the two epic fails they've blessed Twins fans with in 2017 and this year.  I maintain that "relevance" in 2022 is crucial, to the team, the fanbase and this FO.  They better hit a HOMERUN this off season. 

You have the years reversed.  2016 was the horrendous, 103 loss year.  Falvine took over before 2017, which is when the Twins made the playoffs, and Molitor won MOY.  Falvine has had one bad year (this one), which is going to end up being for sure better than 2 out of the 2011-2016 teams, probably better than 2 more, and perhaps even a fifth.  This seems to constantly get lost--as bad as this season has been, IT'S STILL PROBABLY BETTER THAN EVERY NON-2015 SEASON FROM 2011-2016.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

Featured Video

×
×
  • Create New...