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It's time to rip off the starting pitching band aids


Kume34
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Don't you think it's time to rip off the starting pitching band aids the Twins management/ownership has slapped on their staff for over a decade?  Let's ignore the problems in the pen for a minute and focus on the starting staff.  How long ago was the original band aid applied?  In 2008, the Twins managed to have 4 starters with an ERA of 4.04 or less.  Impressive but there was no ace on the staff.  Johan Santana was no longer with the team and Francisco Liriano was a good comeback story for part of that season.   Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn held the reins in 2009 but there still wasn't an ace to be found.  I'll mention one more year specifically and then we'll move along.  Carl Pavano and another comeback by Liriano highlighted the starting pitching in 2010 while they were complimented by some success from the other starters.  Do you see a real ace of the staff though?  Me either. 

Any Twins fan from this era knows the direction the Twins went from here, Everest (maybe not that high) to the Dead Sea (yes that low).  The next several years of failed minor league promotions & signings of has been/never were free agents have stretched for a decade now.  Yes, there have been a few "one hit wonders" that may have hit the Billboard top 100 for a season or two but those haven't been impressive either.  That list includes Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Kenta Maeda, the only veteran starter under contract for 2022 who had a bad 2021 ended by injury.  My apologies to any other members of the one hit wonder band (aid) that I've forgotten.  Current management decided to trade Jose Berrios and sign Randy Dobnak to a long term contract.  Wait, what?  Ok, so Berrios would probably have been lost in free agency in a year and I like Randy Dobnak, his fantastic moustache and the story of his career but again, wait, what?  The names of the unsuccessful have been left out of this story as I want to respect the efforts that most of them gave but weren't able to turn into Twins success.  What needs to be addressed though is that there is NO need to add to the list.  

No, the Twins aren't going to go after the HOF 2022 free agent list of Greinke, Verlander, Kershaw or Scherzer.  They wouldn't sign with the Twins any way.  Nobody wants Trevor Bauer and at this point in his career, Johnny Cueto could be another one hit wonder or he could just add to the decade long list of, "Why?"  Considering the fact that the 2022 starting staff currently consists of an injured Kenta Maeda, it's over due and about time to rip off the band aid that has been applied every year for over a decade.  Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman are both 31 year old veterans with track records of success.  Would you consider either one of them a sure thing?  Perhaps not but next up on the list of free agent starters is the return of the often injured Michael Pineda.  Maybe Stroman and/or Gausman could be convinced to sign with the Twins by run support, good defense (resign Simmons and extend Buxton) and several digits before the decimal point on their contracts. 

C'mon Twins, don't try to hide behind the words "small market team".  Minneapolis-St. Paul ranks 16th in population of metropolitan areas in the U.S. and fans have shown up when there's a major league roster on the field.  Rip the band aid off and let that Pohlad wallet see the light of day and feel the fresh brisk Minnesota air to heal the wound of the starting staff infection.

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I get what you are saying, but then you go ahead and list more free agents that are the same types that you said you didn't want?

 

IMO, the only way out of this is to be able to develop your own guys, or get some guts and pull off a couple big time trades. Signing guys in their 30s is a good way to have happen exactly what you described in the first part of your post. 

Develop, or trade for studs that are either right in their prime or the more preferred about the enter it. 

 

And when it comes time to draft again, go after the high upside arms and lots of them. We have enough speedy outfielders and SS that can't hit. 

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I agree with you.  Development and trades are great options.  I was looking strictly at the free agent list.  For a 1-3 year contract, I do think that Stroman and Gausman are the right age at 31 (32 next season, not past their prime or over the hill) and have stronger track records than the free agent starters the Twins have signed over the last decade with the exception of Ervin Santana.  Your point is well taken, they might not be aces but either could be 1.5/2 or 3 in the rotation, not 4's or 5's simply filling slots.

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While I don't believe a Verlander, Greinke, etc, will be a probable target, some of these FA pitchers are getting long in the tooth. Verlander is coming off a lost year due to injury. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 1yr deal or 1+1 for one of those veterans.

Stroman or Gausman make a ton of sense and are affordable. The investment is needed. Money is available. The offense is there for support. Stroman seems the logical choice based on familiarity and past ties to Twins interest in him. Either is quality enough, proven enough, and young enough to warrant a multi-year deal. (And no, neither is an ACE, but either can lead your staff).

The problem is the 2nd and 3rd spots. Absolutely the 4th and 5th spots belong to Ober, Dobnak, Ryan, Jax, etc, etc. But unless the FO pulls off another Odorizzi or Maeda type trade, which they might, you have to "guess/project" correctly for another couple veterans to fill the #2 and #3 spots. And you have to do so without breaking the bank or going long term because you need room for the young arms coming up. 

IMO, Pineda is already coming back as the #3 for a smaller deal, probably, than this year. I think he likes it here, wants to come back, and probably will be with a good health report card. And I'm OK with that, even knowing he might not go a full 30 GS. 

But what smart trade or signing brings in a solid #2 guy is the mystery/question to me.

IF  the Twins still want to contend, or at least be viable in 2022 despite the loss of Maeda, and are willing to just match the 2019 and 2020 pro-rated payroll, we're talking somewhere around $150M-ish payroll for 2022. That leaves them about $50-60M to spend based on current obligations and Berrios off the books and Maeda only earning his minimum due to injury.

I have no clue if the "contending in 2022" mantra still exists at this point. But there is a good and exciting core of veteran and young talent position player wise. But we also need a couple quality BP arms...that don't have to break the bank...a SS, and hopefully an inexpensive RH 4th OF. 

I expect a ONE SP signing. I expect Pineda or similar signing. But they have to find a solid #2 option for the rotation. So one extended deal, one short deal, and an "I don't know" for the #2 rotation spot.

 

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The Qualifying Offer has ripped to shreds the one year vet taking a team by the noise and leading them to heaven. Never ever another Jack Morris.

 

You may like a pitcher like some of those mentioned above, until they start talking three years, or even five years or more...at a healthy salary.

 

 

So you do more dumpster diving, searching for guys looking for a comeback contract, or figure out a way to sign and keep your own, like the Twins have done with...Dobnak.

 

In reality, baseball is life (and politics). You hope for the best, but life throws a curve and expectations seldom work to one's hopes and dreams. 

 

For 2021 we would've loved to see the Twins sign a starter bigger than Berrios, and a bullpen closer to shut things down. Out of all the names in the free agent market last season, who did the Twins truly miss with, or better yet who did the Twins successfully NOT sign and dodged a bigger bullet.

 

Another year as an armchair general manager for many of us. And what does it actually do on our resume...make us a bigger name in fantasy league ball, which pays as well as on-line poker against a computer where we win billions on the dollar spent. And lose them, too.

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I think it's poor training. Why train a young pitcher to an 80 pitch limit when that barely gets you out of the 5th inning? These young pitchers are SOFT. They don't throw baseballs nearly often enough nor far enough. Plus, their bodies aren't tough enough, either. Make them do rock climbing, water polo, mountain biking - stuff that makes the body hard as nails. 

I'm not saying that every young pitcher should be a cross-fit champion or win American Ninja. I'm just saying that if I hand one a raw potato, he should be able to crush it in his bare hand. Like my buddy, Wolf Larson.

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Motivated me to look back at 20 years of Twins pitching.

 

2020: Berrios (53), Dobnak (45), Maeda (66), Hill (38) and our main arms in the pen: Clippard, Duffey, May, Romo, Rogers and Wisler squeaks in.

 

Before this, let's look at 100+ inning for starters and 50+ games for bullpen.

 

2019: Berrios (200), Gibson (160), Perez (165), Odorizzi (159), Pineda (146). Bullpen: Duffey, Harper, Rogers, May.

 

2018: Berrios (192), Gibson (196), Lynn (102), Odorizzi (164). Bullpen: Rogers, Pressly, Addison Reed, Hildenberger. 34 pitchers used in the season.

 

2017: Berrios (145), Gibson (158), E. Santana (211). Bullpen: Belisle, Duffey, Pressly, Rogers. Team high 36 pitchers on the club that year

 

2016: Duffey (133), Gibson (147), Nolasco (124), E. Santana (181). Bullpen: Kintzler, Tonkin, Rogers, Pressly.

 

2015: Gibson (194), Hughes (155), May (114), Milone (126), Pelfrey (164), E. Santana (108). Bullpen: Boyer, Duensing, Fien, Perkins.

 

2014: Correia (129), Gibson (179), Hughes (209), Milone (118), Nolasco (159). Bullpen: Burton, Fien, Duensing, Perkins, Swarzak, Thielbar.

 

2013: Correia (185), Deduno (108), Diamond (131). Pelfrey (156). Bullpen: Burton, Fien, Duensing, Roenicke, Thielbar in at 49.

 

2012: Diamond (173), Liriano (100), Blackburn (98). Swarzak and Duensing (109) both started and relieved. Bullpen: Bennett, Burton, Perkins. A season that might rival 2021...25 arms used of little memory.

 

2011: Baker (134), Blackburn (148), Duensing (161), Liriano (134), Swarzak (102), Pavano (222). Bullpen: Perkins, Capps, Burnett, Mijares.

 

2010: Baker (175), Blackburn (161), Liriano (191), Pavano (222), Slowey (155). Bullpen: Crain, Duensing, Guerrier, Rauch.

 

2009: Baker (200), Blackburn (205), Liriano (136). Bullpen: Crain, Guerrier, Mijares, Nathan.

 

2008: Baker (172), Blackburn (193), Bonser (118), Perkins (151), Slowey (160), Hernandez (139). Bullpen: Crain, Guerrier, Nathan, Reyes.

 

2007: Baker (143), Silva (202), Santana (219). Bullpen: Guerrier, Nathan, Neshek, Reyes, Rincon.

 

2006: Bonser (100), Liriano (121), Radke (152), Santana (233), SIlva (184). Bullpen: Crain, Nathan, Reyes, Rincon.

 

2005: Lohse (178), Mays (156), Radke (200), Santana (231), Silva (188). Bullpen: Crain, Nathan, Rincon, Romero.

 

2004: Lohse (194), Silva (203), Mulholland (123), Radke (219), Santana (228). Bullpen: Fultz, Rincon, Nathan, Romero.

 

2003: Lohse (201), Mays (130), Radke (212), Reed (135), Rogers (195), Santana (158). Bullpen: Guardado, Hawkins, RIncon, Romero.

 

2002: Lohse (180), Radke (118), Milton (171), Reed (188), Santana (108). Bullpen: Guardado, Hawkins, Jackson, Romero.

 

2001: Milton (233), Radke (226), Mays (233). Bullpen: Carrasco, Guardado, Wells.

 

2000: Mays (160), Milton (200), Radke (226), Redman (151). Bullpen: Guardado, Hawkins, Carrasco, Wells, Travis Miller.

 

The days of pitchers hitting 200+ innings seems a far reach, let alone have a rotation that can each pitch 100+ innings (can't wait to see 2021 breakdowns). One more call up and the Twins break the record of number of pitchers used in a season.

 

Hard to think about the early days when the whole season was handled by 1965 (15), 1967 (12), 1968 (14), 1969 (15), 1970 (13), 1971 (14), 1972 (16) pitchers. I guess people didn't get injured, and I also believe was the era of 4-man rotations, and a total staff of 9. Plus the closer pitched multiple innings. And, as Bert will tell us, more complete games!

 

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4 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

I think it's poor training. Why train a young pitcher to an 80 pitch limit when that barely gets you out of the 5th inning? These young pitchers are SOFT. They don't throw baseballs nearly often enough nor far enough. Plus, their bodies aren't tough enough, either. Make them do rock climbing, water polo, mountain biking - stuff that makes the body hard as nails. 

I'm not saying that every young pitcher should be a cross-fit champion or win American Ninja. I'm just saying that if I hand one a raw potato, he should be able to crush it in his bare hand. Like my buddy, Wolf Larson.

I read all the time about, and it is supported, usually, by the writers here at TD and the beat writers, limiting the pitchers that are healthy to minimum innings. That is what we hear about Ober all the time. Then I read this tonight on the Dodgers site:

"Urías, 25, is in his first season without any sort of pitching limits and he’s shown why he was such a coveted prospect in his ascent through the Minor Leagues. The left-handed starter has nearly doubled his previous career high in innings pitched in a single season with 150 2/3, while also logging double-digit wins for the first time in his career. Urías has pitched at least five innings in all but one of his 26 starts this season and has a 3.17 ERA."

Urias had TJ a couple years ago too! Seems their philosphy is a bit different. And, oh yeah, they have the best record in baseball using it (and spending owner's money very generously).

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3 hours ago, h2oface said:

"Urías, 25, is in his first season without any sort of pitching limits and he’s shown why he was such a coveted prospect in his ascent through the Minor Leagues. The left-handed starter has nearly doubled his previous career high in innings pitched in a single season with 150 2/3, while also logging double-digit wins for the first time in his career. Urías has pitched at least five innings in all but one of his 26 starts this season and has a 3.17 ERA."

Urias had TJ a couple years ago too! Seems their philosphy is a bit different. And, oh yeah, they have the best record in baseball using it (and spending owner's money very generously).

I agree that pitchers pitching without the reins of pitch or innings limits is what we want to see. And I see your point that doubling his innings load is different from incrementally raising a pitcher's workload season by season. Urías has been in both the majors and professional ball period longer than Ober - he was pitching in pro ball when Ober was a freshman in college. If this is his first year without any workload limits, then it's safe to say that the Dodgers did have him under several years of workload management to get to this point.

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The Twins either invest in some actual proven major league arms (Rodon, Gausman, Stroman) and TRADE for one or two as well (Alcantara, Means, etc...) or we should vote with our pocket books next spring/summer to the mediocrity ownership and the front office has gifted us with.  Attendance for Twins games is waaay down (it's harder to get a Saints ticket).  TV ratings are waaay down.  The Pohlad's can either invest in a better product, or watch revenues continue to fall (despite getting millions in TV revenue). How long will networks continue to fork out outrageous sums of money for pathetic rated programming ??  

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I wonder if the current regime is even aware of the information in some of the posts on this thread. I just hope they do something that shows they are interested in chasing the White Sox in 2022 as opposed to short term first aid. The classic was the big signing of Castro as the off season move to address pitching problems because of his "framing" ability.

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6 hours ago, h2oface said:

I read all the time about, and it is supported, usually, by the writers here at TD and the beat writers, limiting the pitchers that are healthy to minimum innings. That is what we hear about Ober all the time. Then I read this tonight on the Dodgers site:

"Urías, 25, is in his first season without any sort of pitching limits and he’s shown why he was such a coveted prospect in his ascent through the Minor Leagues. The left-handed starter has nearly doubled his previous career high in innings pitched in a single season with 150 2/3, while also logging double-digit wins for the first time in his career. Urías has pitched at least five innings in all but one of his 26 starts this season and has a 3.17 ERA."

Urias had TJ a couple years ago too! Seems their philosphy is a bit different. And, oh yeah, they have the best record in baseball using it (and spending owner's money very generously).

I don't know that the Dodgers philosophy is particularly different, or that Urías is a good example of any differences.

First of all, it says Urías is in his first season without any sort of limits -- well, it's his 6th season in MLB! It's taken a long time to get to this point, and the Dodgers have been fairly cautious with him throughout his career. He averaged close to 4 innings per start in the minors, before any surgery.

Second, some of those numbers are misleading -- his previous MLB regular-season career high in innings was only 77, but combined MLB + minors + postseason, he actually reached 127 that year (2016). So 2021 is a jump, but not quite as dramatic as this excerpt implies. And the following year (2017), the Dodgers actually left him at extended spring training for the first month of the MLB season, in a further effort to control his innings. He later spent virtually the entire 2019 season on the Dodgers MLB roster, pitching relatively sparingly out of the pen (37 games, 79.2 IP).

They were pretty aggressive in promoting Urías before his 20th birthday, but then again, they signed him as a top international prospect on his 16th birthday, and he didn't get hurt until he was almost 21, so he was likely going to debut fairly young.

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I would rather develop the starters we have used this season who seem to show promise like Ober and Jax. We have lost too many who have gone on to become solid starters for other teams. i wouldn't be against signing Stroman or Gausman but I am not convinced that they are any better than the ones we have now or the one we have just lost (Berrios). Even just now, we lost out on David Robertson who signed with Chicago who doesn't even need relievers. So do we sign Hand now for something cheap and hope he can bounce back or go with Rogers and Colombe (who hasn't been that bad recently) next year. Or do we purge the market for someone on the list.

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It's true that the Twins were very successful in the 00s while typically having a pitching staff that did not put up very good numbers.  On the hitting side, the team also would go frustratingly long stretches without being able to produce.  But there ways always one piece of the team firing that was able to keep the team in it -- either the hitters, the starters, the relievers, or the defense.  The Twins could hover around .500 until multiple pieces started firing off, which is when they would pull ahead.

I don't know what the magic sauce was.  Gardenhire & staff were probably a part of it.  Maybe even Terry Ryan too, he certainly deserves credit for that window of his tenure.  The threat of contraction and playing for their lives probably helped, and yes I think the umpires were sympathetic at the beginning portion of the Twins success window, too (but definitely not by the end).

We also have to consider the Twins play in the worst division in baseball and they did a great job winning divisional games.  It also helped that they usually only had one team to beat, and often that was Cleveland who could not keep it going for a full season.  National League teams also continued to embarrass themselves in the Metrodome, so interleague play was a bonus for them.

The point is ... comparing the current situation with the 00s teams is impossible.  Everything is too different.

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11 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Hard to think about the early days when the whole season was handled by 1965 (15), 1967 (12), 1968 (14), 1969 (15), 1970 (13), 1971 (14), 1972 (16) pitchers. I guess people didn't get injured, and I also believe was the era of 4-man rotations, and a total staff of 9. Plus the closer pitched multiple innings. And, as Bert will tell us, more complete games!

It seems like modern baseball tries to fit all pitchers into the same mold.  I haven't seen a truly innovative pitcher in his own right for years.  I could see that trying to make every pitcher throw the same way can cause more injuries and, heck, provide less success.  Contrary to popular belief, not every arm is the same.

Someone like Blyleven, who skipped most of the minors in his era, probably spends the maximum amount of time in the minors today, and may never debut in the MLB at all.  Coaches would spend years trying to mold him into something he wasn't, reducing his chances of success.  They'd be all like, "Hey, nice curveball or whatever.  Now can we get serious please?  Stop clowning around.  No one pitches like that.  Quit it.  Pitch this way instead."  This could have been a scene in Idiocracy.

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31 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

It seems like modern baseball tries to fit all pitchers into the same mold.  I haven't seen a truly innovative pitcher in his own right for years.  I could see that trying to make every pitcher throw the same way can cause more injuries and, heck, provide less success.  Contrary to popular belief, not every arm is the same.

Someone like Blyleven, who skipped most of the minors in his era, probably spends the maximum amount of time in the minors today, and may never debut in the MLB at all.  Coaches would spend years trying to mold him into something he wasn't, reducing his chances of success.  They'd be all like, "Hey, nice curveball or whatever.  Now can we get serious please?  Stop clowning around.  No one pitches like that.  Quit it.  Pitch this way instead."  This could have been a scene in Idiocracy.

I'd argue modern baseball is actually the exact opposite of what you just described. There are players that blow through the minor leagues all the time. And as for Blyleven and his curve, teams like the Twins would actually tell him to throw it more. The Twins hunt pitches like Blyleven's curve. They want elite pitches and they want their guys to throw it more. With the spin rate numbers and "by pitch" stats they track they're better than ever at having pitchers use the pitches that are the most effective. Mix that with the advanced knowledge of biomechanics and you see guys like Ober make a small tweak to their mechanics and start throwing 5 MPH harder while pin pointing where their pitches are most effective and teaching them to throw their pitches there (like his fastball up and in to righties, Joe Ryan is the same way actually). Baseball is getting smarter with pitch usage, not dumber.

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I am not very optimistic about Twins signing top quality FA starting pitching. One of the biggest reasons is there is a limited class of top quality FA starting pitchers available this offseason. Another big reason is Twins have poor history of attracting top quality FA starting pitchers. Can Twins persuade Gausman to leave SF or Stroman to leave east coast? Maybe a trade would be a better option, 

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7 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

I agree that pitchers pitching without the reins of pitch or innings limits is what we want to see. And I see your point that doubling his innings load is different from incrementally raising a pitcher's workload season by season. Urías has been in both the majors and professional ball period longer than Ober - he was pitching in pro ball when Ober was a freshman in college. If this is his first year without any workload limits, then it's safe to say that the Dodgers did have him under several years of workload management to get to this point.

Urias surgery was his shoulder capsule, not TJ - my mistake. Urias is 25. Ober is not young at 26. Now the excuse is years in pro ball, instead of age, which is often sited. However you want to slice it, Urias is younger, has had injury history, and has more than doubled his innings in one year, the year after the pandemic, and is way more successful than any of our pitchers. My comment was replying to pitchers being soft and babied. I make no excuses. Some will. This is an example of full steam ahead with great success. Deny it if you like, it is still happening.

 

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1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

Another big reason is Twins have poor history of attracting top quality FA starting pitchers. Can Twins persuade Gausman to leave SF or Stroman to leave east coast? Maybe a trade would be a better option, 

It'll be interesting to watch Gausman and Rodon this offseason - they're among the top free-agent starters available, if not the top 2, and both have had significant turnarounds in their performance while playing on teams that have also had big turnarounds and are winning big this year. It wouldn't be surprising if either guy was harder to pry away from their current team than a typical free agent.

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1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

And as for Blyleven and his curve, teams like the Twins would actually tell him to throw it more. The Twins hunt pitches like Blyleven's curve.

Agreed - and watching Joe Ryan last night it was interesting to see how different his delivery is from an Ober, or Pineda, etc.

It's also hard to compare a Bert Blyleven who had a 20-some year career with an ERA that was consistently below 3 or so to the majority of pitchers who cycle through MLB and might have a 3-4 year career. Blyleven was certainly a guy that was an outlier in his own era, much less today.

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5 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I don't know that the Dodgers philosophy is particularly different, or that Urías is a good example of any differences.

First of all, it says Urías is in his first season without any sort of limits -- well, it's his 6th season in MLB! It's taken a long time to get to this point, and the Dodgers have been fairly cautious with him throughout his career. He averaged close to 4 innings per start in the minors, before any surgery.

Second, some of those numbers are misleading -- his previous MLB regular-season career high in innings was only 77, but combined MLB + minors + postseason, he actually reached 127 that year (2016). So 2021 is a jump, but not quite as dramatic as this excerpt implies. And the following year (2017), the Dodgers actually left him at extended spring training for the first month of the MLB season, in a further effort to control his innings. He later spent virtually the entire 2019 season on the Dodgers MLB roster, pitching relatively sparingly out of the pen (37 games, 79.2 IP).

They were pretty aggressive in promoting Urías before his 20th birthday, but then again, they signed him as a top international prospect on his 16th birthday, and he didn't get hurt until he was almost 21, so he was likely going to debut fairly young.

First, I need to correct the TJ surgery point... it was shoulder capsule, not TJ.

2016, eh? Pre shoulder capsule surgery. I think, then, the statement that he has more than doubled his innings in one year is accurate.

So,,,,, Urias is 25, and Ober is 26. Now it is about years in professional ball, and not age? OK. Argue to keep the band aids on, then? 

This was an example that popped up at the same time this discussion has, and it seemed to be a valid example to include, to me. Every pitcher/player is different. Urias is one example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julio_Urías

 

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I think the FO has bad ideas about starting pitching - specifically, they want to turn games into bullpen games with the starter going five or so innings. Even our minor league pitchers aren't throwing many innings. Berrios will easily lead the Twins in innings pitched this year and, when/if Pineda comes back, we will still only manage to get three pitchers over 100 innings.

That's the staff that the FO has envisioned and created for us. Expect a lot more of it the next few years.

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