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Is it too early to call Cavaco a bust?


Ok, just wondering why nobody is being critical of Keoni Cavaco and his less than acceptable performance this season in Ft Myers? A .240 average, kid has not shown any ability to hit for power, strike outs are crazy high, fielding is terrible (sub .900 fielding percentage - 20 errors).

Why are people so apologetic for this kind of performance when he was out #1 pick in 2019 and still can’t get promoted from Low A ball?

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To be frank, most of it has to do with Cavaco having 92 professional plate appearances before this year and knowing he was a full on project when he was drafted. Cavaco was a surprise and a reach by the Twins as they drafted him purely based on athleticism and projection. Cavaco did not participate in the 2020 alternate site.

  • May - 82 PA .230/.305/.297 OPS .602
  • Jun - 35 PA .344/.400/.438 OPS .838 went on 10 Day IL
  • Jul - 56 PA .271/.375/.438 OPS .813 came back from IL and 3 game rehab assignment
  • Aug - 78 PA .173/.179/.173 OPS .353

He's only had one absolutely horrible month so far; this one. In June and July, Cavaco was showing a real improvement at the plate. Not sure if he's wearing down. Reports suggested his conditioning coming into the year probably wasn't very good so maybe? 

Cavaco's struggles at the plate, and even moreso in the field, are concerning. Too early to completely write him off.

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1 hour ago, Twinky said:

Ok, just wondering why nobody is being critical of Keoni Cavaco and his less than acceptable performance this season in Ft Myers? A .240 average, kid has not shown any ability to hit for power, strike outs are crazy high, fielding is terrible (sub .900 fielding percentage - 20 errors).

Why are people so apologetic for this kind of performance when he was out #1 pick in 2019 and still can’t get promoted from Low A ball?

I think it's too early to call him a bust considering the lack of plate appearances. 

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Lots of people are being critical of that pick in the daily minors' updates. I wasn't a fan, but it is too early to say one way or the other. I have my doubts.....but then, I have my doubts about Lewis and this year's pick (and hated the Rooker selection). So, I clearly don't love how they draft, so I'm not sure I'm free of bias here....

edit to add: We can definitely not look at him and think GREAT PICK right now....

And, how can he be out of shape? A professional athlete with a first round bonus (so he can afford training)? If true, he should be embarrassed. 

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34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

...And, how can he be out of shape? A professional athlete with a first round bonus (so he can afford training)? If true, he should be embarrassed...

I tend to agree, but lockdowns in California were hard core. I saw it reported on Fangraphs that Cavaco's weight seemed to be yo-yoing. Also, the number of poorly conditioned MLB players is long and there are plenty of examples from the Twins in recent years.

 

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6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I tend to agree, but lockdowns in California were hard core. I saw it reported on Fangraphs that Cavaco's weight seemed to be yo-yoing. Also, the number of poorly conditioned MLB players is long and there are plenty of examples from the Twins in recent years.

 

Doesn't make it acceptable. You want to be the best, be the best. IMO, of course.

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While it's too early to tell I did not like the type of gamble they took with Cavaco at 13 in the 1st round.  Two of the next 3 picks from that draft are looking very good.  Bryson Stott is the Phillies number 2 prospect and doing well at AA.  The guy I would have liked to draft is Corbin Carroll who was taken 3 picks later.  He is a CF with 70 speed, great defender.  He is the Dbacks #2 prospect with a 60FV.  Quinn Priester #18 pick is 20 years old doing very well at A+ / 50FV. George Kirby was the #20 pick.  He is 23 playing at AAA.  He has a plus FB and plus command.  They got cute with this pick when there were a number of good options.  Hated this pick.  I would love to have Carroll, Stott or Kirby. 

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27 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

While it's too early to tell I did not like the type of gamble they took with Cavaco at 13 in the 1st round.  Two of the next 3 picks from that draft are looking very good.  Bryson Stott is the Phillies number 2 prospect and doing well at AA.  The guy I would have liked to draft is Corbin Carroll who was taken 3 picks later.  He is a CF with 70 speed, great defender.  He is the Dbacks #2 prospect with a 60FV.  Quinn Priester #18 pick is 20 years old doing very well at A+ / 50FV. George Kirby was the #20 pick.  He is 23 playing at AAA.  He has a plus FB and plus command.  They got cute with this pick when there were a number of good options.  Hated this pick.  I would love to have Carroll, Stott or Kirby. 

Thanks for that info, MLR.  Don't follow the draft all that much, other than who the Twins pick.  Real eye opener seeing how well several of those picks right after the Twins are doing. 

Expect your comment about getting cute has some merit, although I read it a bit different.  I expect in their world of extensive analytics, they have an aura of themselves being somewhat above everyone else, ie, they can do no wrong.  Hopefully, after the last couple drafts, 2019 and 2020, they had a wake-up call and got back to work.  Although it is too early to tell, I like what they did this year.

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He's not off to a good start, but no reason to call him a bust. Just let him play it out and see what happens.

If we're being honest, the Twins don't exactly having a good record with their 1st round draft picks the last 10 years. Hopefully a couple of these guys can turn it around.

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I think Cavaco's stock has gone from a "jury's still out" to a "possible yikes" this year. 

The bottom line is that he is not progressing like you'd want a first-rounder - even an expected project who's missed some playing time - to progress.

I could see the Twins try to salvage some value by using him as a throw-in on an off-season trade.

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What has happened in Cavaco's life? Was he emotionally ready for this huge change in living? Was he physically ready? Particularly after the lockdowns? How's his love life?

Do the Twins have the people to help young players adapt and develop? Do the Twins have the people to help him grow into the player he might be?

Baseball is a results oriented game. Perhaps Cavaco will never be ready to make the big leagues, but I want to know if the Twins are doing the right things to help him succeed. :)

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Cavaceo was doing well to start the season in fact he looked like he might be the best hitter on the team for a while.  It seemed like he got hurt because he didn't play for a few weeks and he hasn't been quite the same since.  Also it seemed like pitchers got better after the first month and lots of guy at FM started slumping. He has good speed and is a good athlete.  The Twins loved him and bet on his bat coming around.  I don't like it when they pick guys high with unknown hit tools.  Way too much bust potential for me.  Way too early to write him off though this is really his first full year in pro ball and guys much older than him have had issue's hitting in A ball as well.  He is far from alone as most of that team has been poor hitters.

My pick was Corbin Carrol I was hoping and hoping that he would fall to us and when he did I thought for sure they would take him.  At that time we had a lot of outfield depth and had taken outfielders in multiple drafts so I have to assume they were looking for an up the middle infield player and he looked like the best bet to them.  Sometimes I think the FO outsmarts themselves.  Anyway don't give up on the kid after his first full year he has plenty of time to get significantly better and I think he will.

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Too early to call him a bust…but he has all the makings of a bust and seems to be making good progress in that direction.

He was a reach where he was picked and almost all based on the dreaded ‘projection’…which means, there’s a ton better baseball players available, but this guy is going to be bigger, faster, and stronger than all of them. This can mean you end up with an all-star caliber player. But it usually means the world gets one more big, fast, strong insurance salesman. Full disclosure: I hated the pick. He can’t hit, and what’s worse, he’s not a shortstop, which means he’s light years from hitting enough to play in the majors. He has time still. But there’s no way he should have been a 13th overall pick.

Levi Michael was a 30th overall pick. Which is about where Cavaco was projected by consensus before the Twins left us scratching our heads.

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I'm definitely concerned about him and he should be dropped down the prospect rankings a bit, but it's too early to give up on him. Neither he nor Misael Urbina seemed ready to play at Fort Myers, but I suppose playing there is better than not playing (until the summer leagues started). Gotta hope for a breakout in 2022/2023.

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1 hour ago, Thegrin said:

What has happened in Cavaco's life? Was he emotionally ready for this huge change in living? Was he physically ready? Particularly after the lockdowns? How's his love life?

Do the Twins have the people to help young players adapt and develop? Do the Twins have the people to help him grow into the player he might be?

Baseball is a results oriented game. Perhaps Cavaco will never be ready to make the big leagues, but I want to know if the Twins are doing the right things to help him succeed. :)

June 11, 2019. Keoni Cavaco signs $4.05MM contract to play for the Minnesota Twins. My guess is he has the resources to keep his personal life in order :)

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22 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Too early to call him a bust…but he has all the makings of a bust and seems to be making good progress in that direction.

He was a reach where he was picked and almost all based on the dreaded ‘projection’…which means, there’s a ton better baseball players available, but this guy is going to be bigger, faster, and stronger than all of them. This can mean you end up with an all-star caliber player. But it usually means the world gets one more big, fast, strong insurance salesman. Full disclosure: I hated the pick. He can’t hit, and what’s worse, he’s not a shortstop, which means he’s light years from hitting enough to play in the majors. He has time still. But there’s no way he should have been a 13th overall pick.

Levi Michael was a 30th overall pick. Which is about where Cavaco was projected by consensus before the Twins left us scratching our heads.

That and Levi Michael was considered a very high floor, polished college player who was expected to fast track it MLB.

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Cavaco mentioned in an interview when he signed that he hoped to be playing at Target Field within three years. I liked the confidence because baseball is a really tough game to play and failure is a constant companion. Let's hope this kid can put it together. I, too, thought Cavaco at 13 was unusual. But, I had never seen him play in high school.

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10 hours ago, Dman said:

Cavaceo was doing well to start the season in fact he looked like he might be the best hitter on the team for a while.  It seemed like he got hurt because he didn't play for a few weeks and he hasn't been quite the same since.  Also it seemed like pitchers got better after the first month and lots of guy at FM started slumping. He has good speed and is a good athlete.  The Twins loved him and bet on his bat coming around.  I don't like it when they pick guys high with unknown hit tools.  Way too much bust potential for me.  Way too early to write him off though this is really his first full year in pro ball and guys much older than him have had issue's hitting in A ball as well.  He is far from alone as most of that team has been poor hitters.

My pick was Corbin Carrol I was hoping and hoping that he would fall to us and when he did I thought for sure they would take him.  At that time we had a lot of outfield depth and had taken outfielders in multiple drafts so I have to assume they were looking for an up the middle infield player and he looked like the best bet to them.  Sometimes I think the FO outsmarts themselves.  Anyway don't give up on the kid after his first full year he has plenty of time to get significantly better and I think he will.

I wish they would have gone with your pick.  Carroll would be a great add to our farm system which could really use a legit CF prospect and he has 70 speed.  I don't see why our OF depth should have played a factor when Carroll is obvious to stick in CF.  Our depth was/is all corner OFers.  

Bryson Stott would have been a great pick too.  He is already at AA and would probably be the most likely to stick at SS.  The possibility of Scott and Miranda anchoring the left side for the next several years would be great.  I sure hope Cavaco breaks out because the options picked right after him would likely have been part of the solution.

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2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I wish they would have gone with your pick.  Carroll would be a great add to our farm system which could really use a legit CF prospect and he has 70 speed.  I don't see why our OF depth should have played a factor when Carroll is obvious to stick in CF.  Our depth was/is all corner OFers.  

Bryson Stott would have been a great pick too.  He is already at AA and would probably be the most likely to stick at SS.  The possibility of Scott and Miranda anchoring the left side for the next several years would be great.  I sure hope Cavaco breaks out because the options picked right after him would likely have been part of the solution.

Yeah Carroll was touted as an almost sure thing with the bat which is why I thought the Twins would grab him for sure.  I think there were questions about his power but that hasn't seemed to be a problem in the minors so far.  They had the perfect player fall into their lap IMO but they chose to go the risky route.  Will have to wait and see if it bites them or not.

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On 8/30/2021 at 12:52 PM, Twinky said:

Ok, just wondering why nobody is being critical of Keoni Cavaco and his less than acceptable performance this season in Ft Myers? A .240 average, kid has not shown any ability to hit for power, strike outs are crazy high, fielding is terrible (sub .900 fielding percentage - 20 errors).

Why are people so apologetic for this kind of performance when he was out #1 pick in 2019 and still can’t get promoted from Low A ball?

Given he lost a professional season and he came straight out of high school, yes I would say it's too early.

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The guy received fewer than 100 professional PAs, then was shut down for 18 months. While it's certainly not a good sign that he's a mess right now, it's also not terribly surprising, I'm sure there are loads of "good" prospects who entered 2021 as a hot mess.

He still has fewer than 400 MiLB plate appearances in total. His stock has certainly dropped but more time is needed before we see what kind of player he really is under normal circumstances with normal seasonal baseball cycles.

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