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Did the Twins Miss Something With Jake Reed?


2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There are multiple threads and comments (some repeated over and over and over and over and over......) about multiple fringe players and their "success" outside of MN......Like, they'd have to cut about 10 players from the current roster to hold them all (imagine doing that at the start of the year)......

I have no issue with reasoned discussions about failures, but this is a ridiculous example, imo. As are many of the second guesses here.

I get it, the season has sucked. But the anger and mean comments (not in this OP, btw) and repetition is tedious at best (and a massive turn off from joining in for many former long time posters).

Well, I guess you take that up with the TD staff and writers. I do think it is fair to hammer Falvey and Levine over this season. Maybe each individual player we lost is nickel and diming, but in the end it was a suck year and it is their fault. Gil and Ynoa were the biggest 2 sickening failed evaluations, and I can't help but think that is what keeps Cave on the roster - which makes one mistake become two.

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According to Baseball Reference, Brandon Kintzler was acquired by the previous front office. 

@chpettit19  @prouster

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4 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

According to Baseball Reference, Brandon Kintzler was acquired by the previous front office. 

@chpettit19  @prouster

Not sure why you'd tag me in this. I haven't said anything about Kintzler, or any specific player outside of Reed. All I've said is that Reed types are added and cut multiple times a year and this is a clickbait article.

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3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Not sure why you'd tag me in this. I haven't said anything about Kintzler, or any specific player outside of Reed. All I've said is that Reed types are added and cut multiple times a year and this is a clickbait article.

You entered into a dialog/agreement with the other poster. I wanted to be sure you knew. No hard feelings to either of you.

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If we really want to go to the "Did the Twins miss something..." well, let's talk about Badoo and Wade.  Reed isn't really any better than the turnstile of DFA'd arms the FO has cycled through the last couple years.

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1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

According to Baseball Reference, Brandon Kintzler was acquired by the previous front office. 

@chpettit19  @prouster

That’s my mistake. I had it in my head that Falvey started before the 2016 season, not after. Kintzler was a MiLB signing, but we can scratch him off the list of examples I provided. My general point is that Falvine have in fact picked off some useful fringey players from other organizations. 

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18 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

If we really want to go to the "Did the Twins miss something..." well, let's talk about Badoo and Wade.  Reed isn't really any better than the turnstile of DFA'd arms the FO has cycled through the last couple years.

I have ZERO problem with them trading Wade.  We were very deep in corner OFers, especially LH.  Frankly, he looked like a AAAA player to me.  His only above average skill was plate discipline.  He looked to have well below average power.  Fangraphs rated him 30/35.  He was not fast enough to play CF and he has a weak arm.  We will see if he continues to hit HRs at this rate but count me surprised and skeptical that the league won’t adapt.

I believe the Twins thought highly of Baddoo.  They (like me) just did not believe a team would take him and roster him for a year or that he would perform this well thrown into at the MLB level.  Numerous highly regarded prospects did not perform well this year after missing last year.  Others were unaffected.  Point being I doubt they did not believe in his talent.  They just did not believe a team would take him. 

The trades that bug me is Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa.  I don’t recall anyone here having a problem with us trading away a 19 year old A-ball pitcher and I thought little of it as well.  3 ½ years later, and the knowledge that Cave did not amount to much, this one bothers me because we traded away a pitcher with a high ceiling for a tweener.  Ynoa was traded for a rental.  Gil / Ynoa / Ober would be a nice start to building a great rotation.  There are a couple lessons here.  One of them is that we will still be following the team when these deals that take 3 or 4 years impact the ML club come to fruition.

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I have ZERO problem with them trading Wade.  We were very deep in corner OFers, especially LH.  Frankly, he looked like a AAAA player to me.  His only above average skill was plate discipline.  He looked to have well below average power.  Fangraphs rated him 30/35.  He was not fast enough to play CF and he has a weak arm.  We will see if he continues to hit HRs at this rate but count me surprised and skeptical that the league won’t adapt.

I believe the Twins thought highly of Baddoo.  They (like me) just did not believe a team would take him and roster him for a year or that he would perform this well thrown into at the MLB level.  Numerous highly regarded prospects did not perform well this year after missing last year.  Others were unaffected.  Point being I doubt they did not believe in his talent.  They just did not believe a team would take him. 

The trades that bug me is Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa.  I don’t recall anyone here having a problem with us trading away a 19 year old A-ball pitcher and I thought little of it as well.  3 ½ years later, and the knowledge that Cave did not amount to much, this one bothers me because we traded away a pitcher with a high ceiling for a tweener.  Ynoa was traded for a rental.  Gil / Ynoa / Ober would be a nice start to building a great rotation.  There are a couple lessons here.  One of them is that there is benefit in making deals or not making deals that don’t impact the ML club for 3 or 4 years.
 

There were a few who were didn't like the Ynoa trade at the time, Ben being the biggest, IIRC. I was ok with Gil for Cave but I expected the Twins would be able to make more starters. I was wrong.

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If the Twins missed something so did the other teams that have taken him and DFA him.  Clearly he has potential with the high K rate, but he also clearly has issues giving up runs.  If he left Twins and started doing great like Anderson did in Tampa I would say we missed something for sure, but going to three teams after us already is not something to say we missed something. 

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I think with our pitching implosion this season we are looking for answers and we see how multiple pitching prospects from the Terry Ryan regime finding success. Hnoa and Gil as starters and Anderson, Chagois, and now Rees and we are wondering what could have been?  Basically the new regime and came in making changes to put their own stamp on the organization.  Hnoa was traded for a chance to compete and then for a prospect we still have, Gil for Cave.  Chagois and Reed were victims of a roster crunch if I remember correctly.  And Nick Anderson was just inexcusable as far as I can see.  The guy is local.  He should have been called up here.  (It would be cool if we had Brad Hand, Anderson and Theilbar all in the pen....a Minnesota shutdown pen). 

Back to the subject at hand which is fixing the pitching.  I hope the guys we lost all have excellent careers expect while playing for the Yankees.  And Over seems to be settling in as a starter to count on.  Ryan has 17 strikeouts in 9 innings in AAA.  I expect a call up for him after another 2 starts if he keeps this up. We have available funds to spend in the offseason.  Minaya and Coulombe (not the one blowing saves) seem solid.  If they are both back next year with Rogers, Duffey, and Theilbar we would just need 1 or 2 more solid relievers.  Need 2 starters after Ober, Maeda if he doesn't require surgury and Ryan.  I am not sold on Jax or Barnes.  Maybe Jax in the pen.  (I think I just went off topic so I will stop here).

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19 hours ago, prouster said:

That’s my mistake. I had it in my head that Falvey started before the 2016 season, not after. Kintzler was a MiLB signing, but we can scratch him off the list of examples I provided. My general point is that Falvine have in fact picked off some useful fringey players from other organizations. 

i.if it helps Terry Ryan was let go after arguably the best draft in our organizations history.

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If Reed is a mistake, then they made it 3 times. He has been waived twice this year, each time being claimed by a team with a better record than the Twins. I think that’s a pretty firm “no”…in that this FO at least doesn’t think a mistake was made.

Even guys like Ynoa…sure it’d be great to have that one back…but a very common sentiment on this site at the time is that the Twins should have gone bigger at that deadline. 90% here are going to complain if you aren’t willing to trade prospects at the deadline (when headed for the playoffs)…and 90% will complain that the trade was made when the prospect turns out to be good.

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2 hours ago, Brandon said:

i.if it helps Terry Ryan was let go after arguably the best draft in our organizations history.

Mite be a bit early for that claim…it looks strong with 8 players in the majors, but 5 of those with negative bWAR at this point…and they’re all just getting their feet wet…and Miranda and Balazovic not having even dipped a tow yet.

Bringing up the 2016 draft in this thread does, however, raise the question…why isn’t this article about Tyler Wells? 🙂

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4 hours ago, jkcarew said:

…why isn’t this article about Tyler Wells? 🙂

Because it would be too painful haha. Baltimore's manager Brandon Hyde hasn't ruled out using Wells as a starter this year. They're really liking what they see, especially with Wells getting lefties out which suggests he could be a starter.

Hyde's quote from July 3rd, I believe, “I wouldn’t rule anything out right now,” Hyde said. “I think it’s definitely a possibility. You never know what’s going to happen the rest of the year, but we’re comfortable where he is right now getting the experience that he is in the bullpen. He’s starting to pitch in some big spots in games. I’m excited about giving him the opportunity. I like the guy’s stuff. We’re keeping our options open with him.”

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Every year you draft players. You add them to a minor league system that already has close to 150 players playing. By the time the draft rolls around, you start jettisoning fringe guys who are struggling, not taking to the system, or fall behind other younger guys as they approach Rule 5 or minor league free agency.

 

Reed did good, got a spring training invite, but wasn't on the 40-man. Then he did horrible. Was exposed to the Rule 5. Nothing happened. He got to pitch again, but age caught up to him as well as other names to protect on the Rule 5. He was still possible organization trade bait to become the problem of another team (look at recent trade of Happ - Twins got Sisk, who the Cardinals didn't want to protect for the Rule 5, and Gant, someone that you have to make a "going to arbitration" decision on - let him walk, work out a contract or arbitrate, or trade and, hey, you always go after him again, if you want, if he is a free agent).

 

And you always have to make decisions. So many young players come up and pitch. Remember that Guardado and Hawkins were starters that got hammered before becoming bullpen arms. The Twins managed to turn them and keep them. Perkins was in the same boat, and the Twins actually removed him from the 40-man, no one called, and he came back to be one of our better relief pitchers. The numbers game saw us lose Hendriks who went from bad young starter to great relief pitcher. Also Zach Littell, who was a dynamite minor league starter, did great in the bullpen, got some arm issues. The Twins thought they could remove him (shades of what might happen to folks like Stashak or Smeltzer), and he choose to move on.

 

And then you throw in the mix the grab bag of players you can randomly sign. The Twins did more than 33 of those this year, enough to populate more than half the players in their two upper levels. That 15 of these folks from "outside" the organization made it to the 25-man roster during the year, either shows the Twins were a really bad team, or...well, a really bad team. The 15, who you can probably name if you think about it, will be hard-pressed to be anywhere near the 25-man roster in 2022. And the year isn't thru yet.

You want to talk about Twins that get away? In 2013 the Twins drafted Gonsalves, Eades,  Stewart and Slegers - all of whom are still pitching for other teams today after little success with the Twins but actually some fine minor league numbers. That draft class also gave us late-bloomer Garver, who was a catching prospect with Stu Turner and Brian Navaretto, both of whom saw work with other teams than the Twins. And our favorite centerfielder this side of Lew Ford, Zack Granite.

 

Reed was one of the college experienced arms grabbed in 2014, along with others who have reached the majors like John Curtiss (out now with Tommy John), Sam Clay, Nick Burdi (another the Twins lost in the Rule 5), and Trevor Hildenberger, Taylor Hearn and Sam Hilliard. We still have Nick Gordon, who we managed to give playing time finally in 2021.

 

2015 saw the Twins draft Tyler Jay, who was also going to take the team by storm but basically was passed by others. We failed to sign Kyle Cody. Andrew Vasquez reached the Twins team, left the Twins roster, came back and is still a 28ish prospect that might still get a call in 2021. Logan Lombana is still flirting with the dream. Jaylin Davis, Blake Cederlind played in the majors. Trey Cabbage is a potential minor league free agent tearing up AA. Jovani Moran is a force to be reckoned, but could've been taken last year by another team and wasn't. Happily he won't be getting stories like this piece on Reed written about him. Zander Wiel, who was promising going into the lost 2020 season, got injured this year and after a half-dozen rehab games, was released as he is about to be...a minor league free agent.

 

26 new players made their debut as a Twin in 2021. We had 17 new Twins in 2020, 22 in 2018. So there is always room for a player like Reed to get a shot, you'd think. This year the Twins have had 55 different players play in the majors for them, and 8 have been on the 40-man and didn't play for them...yet (Colina, Duran, Strotman, Balazovic, Hamilton, Gibault and gone guys Wade and Chalmers.)

`For some players it is a short leash (how long is the Barraclough leash). Ober, Barnes and Jax could've been 1 or 2 and gone, gone, gone if our rotation had stayed intact. 

 

Names like Smetlzer, Dobnak, Gant, Thorpe have already been replaced by Ober, Jax, Barnes, who are being pressed by Strothman, Ryan, Balazovic, Sammons, Sands, Enlow. Winder and Albers (that was added for humor).

 

A helluva a lot of those 26 news Twins, combined with old Twins and lots of minor league names will be cut loose like Ryan Mason (perhaps),

 

There's always names that pop up like Gil (but we got Rijo from the Yankees, remember that at some point), Ynoa. Also Mazza, Chargois, Wells, Hollands (unsigned), Chase and Tyler Andersons, Evan Meek, LaVale Speigner, Saul Rivera, Brian Wolfe, Juan Padilla. We let them get away, but really......crying?

 

Sometimes, like for Reed, it was being brilliant when there wasn't room on the 40-man or a dire need not to add him to the 40-man (something that Yennier Cano might experience and if he doesn't dazzle in spring training and blow people away at St. Paul in 2022, he will be another that gets a chance to maybe shine elsewhere, for a moment).

What makes us glad to see players like Reed get another chance is that they, like Jay and Burdi and the ilk, were highly praised when drafted as guys who would be here to help us, sooner rather than later, but are textbook examples of how a farm system works for a team and against most players. So many don't make it thru year one. Many are gone by year three. 15% maybe make it to free agency in the minors and then stick around for up to a decade in minor league ball getting an occasional cup of coffee because they do have skills, but always fighting to get beyond that 25th/26th man status of a roster.

 

Happily opportunities to exist for players to move on, and teams willing to give non-developed veterans of the minors an opportunity, little as they may sometime seem.

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