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We can't have nice things, episode 1740: Maeda to have elbow surgery


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1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

Who? Strotman and Ryan are nice arms but they aren't front of the rotation types. We don't have any of those in the system unless you squint really hard on Woods-Richardson.

I'm convinced the Twins hope to create a staff where the starter goes 4-5 innings and then we turn it over the bullpen. Every night. As you said in another thread, that's really bad for baseball.

I don't expect either to turn into great pitchers but either could be league average or slightly better, with Ryan looking significantly better in the here and now. My hopes aren't high for Strotman at the moment.

If the Twins want to replace Berríos, or even improve upon him, they're going to have to pay for it in free agency or trade. I don't expect any of their immediate internal options to be top of the rotation starters but they can be nice pieces that slide into the third or so spot in the rotation and give the Twins a chance to win every fifth night. I mean, they have a few guys more highly regarded than Ober and he's doing pretty well for himself so far, definitely the kind of guy you don't mind slotting into the four spot next season.

So yeah, the Twins definitely need arms but 2022 may not be dire if the team signs Marcus Stroman (not my personal fave, just a name), Ryan looks good, Strotman is a bullpen piece, and the Twins backfill with decent (read NOT SHOEMAKER) options that don't break the bank.

This offense can carry the team quite a ways if the pitching staff isn't, as you pointed out, barely better than BALTIMORE.

But the front office has a lot of work ahead of them and they need to show they can make *much* better decisions than they made 10 months ago.

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Who's worried about the 40 man?  There's plenty of spots, especially pitcher we can DFA that shouldn't be here anyway.  Thursdays game with Gant pitching a bp bullpen game.  Maybe it should be called a batting practice (bp). There's no reason some of our top young potential starters shouldn't be up here now.

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1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

 

This offense can carry the team quite a ways if the pitching staff isn't, as you pointed out, barely better than BALTIMORE.

But the front office has a lot of work ahead of them and they need to show they can make *much* better decisions than they made 10 months ago.

They need to make much better decisions than they made 10 hours ago.

If they are serious about contending (which in my book means winning a WS because I don't give two craps about another hallow AL Central Title and an immediate playoff bounce) they need to find FOUR more starters. The guys they are running out there now wouldn't sniff the White Sox, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Giants or any other real contender's rotation. They need to stop with this sideshow. Unless they really plan on signing four 12+M/year starters in free agency, Ryan, Strotman, Woods-Richardson, Windsor and Balazovic need to be up ASAP and the organization needs to cross their fingers and pray to every God they can think of that a couple of these guys are good enough to fill out a couple of rotation spots.

Stop auditioning these guys who only have long-shot odds of even becoming a #5 starter, it's a waste of time and money. 

 

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2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They need to make much better decisions than they made 10 hours ago.

If they are serious about contending (which in my book means winning a WS because I don't give two craps about another hallow AL Central Title and an immediate playoff bounce) they need to find FOUR more starters. The guys they are running out there now wouldn't sniff the White Sox, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Giants or any other real contender's rotation. They need to stop with this sideshow. Unless they really plan on signing four 12+M/year starters in free agency, Ryan, Strotman, Woods-Richardson, Windsor and Balazovic need to be up ASAP and the organization needs to cross their fingers and pray to every God they can think of that a couple of these guys are good enough to fill out a couple of rotation spots.

Stop auditioning these guys with no hope of being better than a #5 starter, it's a waste of time, and money. 

I agree as of right now, which is why I literally created a "FREE JOE RYAN" thread like two hours ago, but until recently, the team simply didn't have options if you break each player down piece by piece.

Ryan was in Tokyo.

Strotman hasn't been good.

Woods-Richardson was in Toyko and still hasn't made a start with the Twins organization.

Balazovic is likely on a strict innings limit after 2020 and isn't on the 40-man, which becomes a gamble to add him.

But as of *this moment*, Ryan should be considered available. On September 1st, I wouldn't hesitate to add Strotman to the roster whether he's good or not, as he's on the 40-man right now. His season is going to wind down in St Paul anyway. Balazovic... well, that's still quite a gamble. The team only has five rotation spots and I'd be pretty satisfied with Ober, Jax, Ryan, and Strotman in the rotation to fill out the month. The Twins need to find out and make a decision on some of these guys in order, there simply isn't enough room to carry them all on the 40-man at once and sign free agents through the offseason. It'd be too easy to drop the wrong guy by adding Balazovic and then fans are screaming in 2022 about the next Wade or Baddoo.

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1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree as of right now, which is why I literally created a "FREE JOE RYAN" thread like two hours ago, but until recently, the team simply didn't have options if you break each player down piece by piece.

Ryan was in Tokyo.

Strotman hasn't been good.

Woods-Richardson was in Toyko and still hasn't made a start with the Twins organization.

Balazovic is likely on a strict innings limit after 2020 and isn't on the 40-man, which becomes a gamble to add him.

But as of *this moment*, Ryan should be considered available. On September 1st, I wouldn't hesitate to add Strotman to the roster whether he's good or not, as he's on the 40-man right now. His season is going to wind down in St Paul anyway. Balazovic... well, that's still quite a gamble. The team only has five rotation spots and I'd be pretty satisfied with Ober, Jax, Ryan, and Strotman in the rotation to fill out the month. The Twins need to find out and make a decision on some of these guys in order, there simply isn't enough room to carry them all on the 40-man at once and sign free agents through the offseason. It'd be too easy to drop the wrong guy by adding Balazovic and then fans are screaming in 2022 about the next Wade or Baddoo.

There's a lot of logic here. I hate that on TD.

But generally I agree with you. I want Ober and Jax to get more starts since (to me) they aren't blocking Ryan and Strotman. But an absolutely best case scenario would be that Ryan, Strotman, and Ober could each throw 120 innings at league average in 2022 at the ML level. That's a lot of innings left for the FO to find pitchers for.

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2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

They need to make much better decisions than they made 10 hours ago.

If they are serious about contending (which in my book means winning a WS because I don't give two craps about another hallow AL Central Title and an immediate playoff bounce) they need to find FOUR more starters. The guys they are running out there now wouldn't sniff the White Sox, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Giants or any other real contender's rotation. They need to stop with this sideshow. Unless they really plan on signing four 12+M/year starters in free agency, Ryan, Strotman, Woods-Richardson, Windsor and Balazovic need to be up ASAP and the organization needs to cross their fingers and pray to every God they can think of that a couple of these guys are good enough to fill out a couple of rotation spots.

Stop auditioning these guys who only have long-shot odds of even becoming a #5 starter, it's a waste of time and money. 

 

If we win our share of WS that equates to winning once every 30 years.  The point of view of a world series winner or bust basically assures you will be disappointed most of the time.  To each his own but I refuse to take such a stance on something that is supposed to be entertainment.  Perhaps more to the point, approaching roster management with a singular focus on winning the WS next year is incredibly incompetent.  Therefore, if you expect the team to be completely focused on the near term, the FO is going to disappointed you.  I should add that the biggest cluster I ever encountered professionally were management teams that tried to fix things too quickly or did not build a sustainable model. This is why you don't see teams signing or trading for 4 SPs.  If it were a reasonable expectation for bottom teams to win the WS the year following 90 or 100 losses we would have vast swings in win records every year.  

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree as of right now, which is why I literally created a "FREE JOE RYAN" thread like two hours ago, but until recently, the team simply didn't have options if you break each player down piece by piece.

Ryan was in Tokyo.

Strotman hasn't been good.

Woods-Richardson was in Toyko and still hasn't made a start with the Twins organization.

Balazovic is likely on a strict innings limit after 2020 and isn't on the 40-man, which becomes a gamble to add him.

But as of *this moment*, Ryan should be considered available. On September 1st, I wouldn't hesitate to add Strotman to the roster whether he's good or not, as he's on the 40-man right now. His season is going to wind down in St Paul anyway. Balazovic... well, that's still quite a gamble. The team only has five rotation spots and I'd be pretty satisfied with Ober, Jax, Ryan, and Strotman in the rotation to fill out the month. The Twins need to find out and make a decision on some of these guys in order, there simply isn't enough room to carry them all on the 40-man at once and sign free agents through the offseason. It'd be too easy to drop the wrong guy by adding Balazovic and then fans are screaming in 2022 about the next Wade or Baddoo.

For what it's worth, I don't need these guys to be good or "ready". 

But I think they need to be evaluated at the top level to get any reasonable read on if they will be able to contribute meaningfully in the MLB. It should start now. Strotman can struggle here. Balazovic can have his innings managed here.

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1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

For what it's worth, I don't need these guys to be good or "ready". 

But I think they need to be evaluated at the top level to get any reasonable read on if they will be able to contribute meaningfully in the MLB. It should start now. Strotman can struggle here. Balazovic can have his innings managed here.

But if a guy is struggling in AAA to the point he's not even a consideration for the MLB squad, what good will come of cramming him in there anyway? To get his face punched in even harder than in St Paul?

Look at Celestino. He was a trainwreck in Minnesota because he simply wasn't ready. He *finally and mercifully* was demoted and is now torching the competition in a lower-intensity environment.

It's not as if St Paul is far away or backwater Northwoods league competition. If the Twins don't trust their Saints coaches to work through development issues in that lower stress league, they need to fire all their coaches and possibly themselves because that's literally the point of having the team.

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

 I should add that the biggest cluster I ever encountered professionally were management teams that tried to fix things too quickly or did not build a sustainable model.

What's sustainable about the FO's approach to pitching? This thread exists because the annual short term gambles all went belly up and the top end of the rotation & bullpen finally weren't good/healthy enough to overcome it. If their FA signings weren't historically awful the offense likely has this team fighting for a wild card spot with Cruz and Berrios still on the roster; which means the only organizational prospect off the active roster, with any real chance to contribute this year or probably next would've been Balazovic. If their approach the last 5 years truly was sustainable we would've seen a much better track record in FA, or at the very least a bullpen arm or two developed.

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11 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What's sustainable about the FO's approach to pitching? This thread exists because the annual short term gambles all went belly up and the top end of the rotation & bullpen finally weren't good/healthy enough to overcome it. If their FA signings weren't historically awful the offense likely has this team fighting for a wild card spot with Cruz and Berrios still on the roster; which means the only organizational prospect off the active roster, with any real chance to contribute this year or probably next would've been Balazovic. If their approach the last 5 years truly was sustainable we would've seen a much better track record in FA, or at the very least a bullpen arm or two developed.

I was absolutely certain someone would bring up the current failure.  So, I will state now what I considered including in the original post.  The past and how we got here is completely irrelevant to what needs to be done and the best strategy to get there.  The consistent sole focus on RIGHT NOW or next year has no place in strategic thinking.  The things Tampa does would insight a riot here if done by the Twins.

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The past and how we got here is completely irrelevant to what needs to be done and the best strategy to get there. 

Patience and "building a sustainable model," was the sales pitch 5 years ago. A large portion of the failure this season, and most of the gloomy outlook for next year can be attributed to the latter never materializing. Past performance is absolutely relevant if what you're endorsing is punting on next season while simultaneously preaching more patience. 

Regardless, the post you quoted made clear that it's foolish to double down on mistakes. Do we really need to watch John Gant start in late August? I don't see the quibble with getting young arms some innings at this point in the season, whether or not you believe the team can/should try to compete next year.

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14 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I was absolutely certain someone would bring up the current failure.  So, I will state now what I considered including in the original post.  The past and how we got here is completely irrelevant to what needs to be done and the best strategy to get there.  The consistent sole focus on RIGHT NOW or next year has no place in strategic thinking.  The things Tampa does would insight a riot here if done by the Twins.

How we got here is not completely irrelevant as the folks who brought us to this point are now the ones being asked to correct the situation they created.  I would also add that I think the folks on this site (and fanbase in general) would be able to handle the 'Tampa' like actions assuming they produced similar results (we have seen a couple of these things in the Cruz and Berrios trades).  The difference between Tampa and the Twins right now is they are able to draft/sign/trade and develop young pitching which has up to this point proven difficult at best for this FO.

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Being optimistic, the Twins can fill the last two spots in their rotation for next year from among those already within the organization. So then, three spots will need to be accounted for via trade or free agent signings. Maeda is hurt and does not fill a position in this thinking until he heals and returns to strength. The front office will decide if the Twins can have nice things.

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12 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Patience and "building a sustainable model," was the sales pitch 5 years ago. A large portion of the failure this season, and most of the gloomy outlook for next year can be attributed to the latter never materializing. Past performance is absolutely relevant if what you're endorsing is punting on next season while simultaneously preaching more patience. 

Regardless, the post you quoted made clear that it's foolish to double down on mistakes. Do we really need to watch John Gant start in late August? I don't see the quibble with getting young arms some innings at this point in the season, whether or not you believe the team can/should try to compete next year.

John Gant has no relevance in a conversation about what strategies the team should employ in building a contender and sustainability.  Once again you are talking about today and I am talking about the future.  I have no quibble with "getting young arms innings".  I am for it and I don't know how this was your takeaway from my earlier post which clearly focused on the fact many here insist on a strategy focused on winning the WS next year.  The bickering about seeing certain players is just noise in the context of the big picture.

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5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

John Gant has no relevance in a conversation about what strategies the team should employ in building a contender and sustainability. 

Once again you are talking about today and I am talking about the future. 

I have no quibble with "getting young arms innings".  I am for it  

The bickering about seeing certain players is just noise in the context of the big picture.

Lots of conflicting statements here....

What's sustainable about continuing to give innings to guys with no future on this team while pitchers that will likely have to be relied on next season sit at AA and AAA? Is John Gant ever going to start for a contending team? Handing him the ball, again, while guys like Balazovic and Ryan are still in in the minors is asinine at this point. The push to get those young arms up here is to build for the future, it's not "just noise." Whether you agree or not about WS contention next season doesn't matter, the point is that investing innings in roster fodder while pitchers that can actually help in the coming years are inching closer to their innings limits in the minors makes absolutely no sense. Decisions made today affect the future, that should be obvious. 

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Well there you go time to start developing the youngsters for 2022. Gibaultaboutit! There is no way they build a rotation with Ober alone. Not going to happen. Even Maeda will be pretty old by '22 so with Berrios gone Falvey and Levine are completely starting over. This will be their team and their opportunity to sink or swim.

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16 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

You wanted to trade Maeda at the trade deadline?

Yes. 

I thought if the Twins would decide to trade either Buxton and/or Berrios, and basically give up on 2022, then I thought they might as well trade anyone else of value and aim for 2024 or 2025.

Edit: but if they would have decided to keep Buxton and Berrios then no they should go ahead and retool for 2022 with Maeda and Berrios.

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19 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Yes. 

I thought if the Twins would decide to trade either Buxton and/or Berrios, and basically give up on 2022, then I thought they might as well trade anyone else of value and aim for 2024 or 2025.

Edit: but if they would have decided to keep Buxton and Berrios then no they should go ahead and retool for 2022 with Maeda and Berrios.

I don’t recall reading that before but I will believe you. I don’t agree, but that’s okay. 

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3 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

 

So, like...he's going to go under anesthesia and then he'll find out what surgery he had when he wakes up?

If that's the case, I'm sure he's had plenty of opportunity to talk through all the options with the doctors, but still, that seems incredibly unnerving.

This happens more than you'd think. I forgot which Twins player woke up to a semi-surprise surgery. They were expecting something a lot less invasive, but once the surgeon actually got in there and saw the damage, the repair had to be more complete. I feel like it was in the mid 2010s.

Anyway, MRI's are only so good. Other treatment options are going to depend on blood supply to the exact area of injury, etc. Right now, it might look like Maeda is a candidate for a less invastive UCL reconstruction rather than replacement, but the surgeon won't actually know for sure until he sets eyes on it.

I honestly think Maeda may emerge from this better than ever. Since there's been historical concerns about the elbow, the surgeons may be able to get him to a higher level than what he was.

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