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3 Questions Byron Buxton Can Answer in September


2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

They sign Donaldson to a 4 year deal, then "the fans" want him traded less than 2 years in because he makes too much? Not sure that was the answer you were looking for.

I guess it is not shocking to me that fans would be less patient with a declining vet FA who they have no investment in vs signing a young, home grown player they have watched develop for 3 to 4 years.

 

I feel like that is why we have posts on here apologizing to Polanco and not discussing how Donaldson has been an ok investment so far. Fans are invested in Polanco.

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Will he play full seasons? Is he worth Donaldson money right now for five years? How much do you lose if he can play out a contract, but not fulltime? Or should it just be the problem of another team.

 

So much is at stake in his final 25 game run for this season as other teams scout him...carefully. His next season, as a Twin or not, is essential to Byron. If he plays the whole season to the satisfaction of his past couple (or 162 games), he is set. But I don't see another team necessarily trading for him and then signing him for the $100-125 million he reportedly deserves. Which means he becomes a rental and the Twins get a high recent draft pick and another decent player in the mix, more or less...probably less.

 

The pain is if Buxton literally sucks, the Twins option is a QO at season's end to get a draft pick, or nothing...unless he is healthy enough to bring something, anything back at the trade deadline. Like Berrios, I think Buxton is looking towards a glorious future, or so his agent is telling him.

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I smell the Joe Mauer contract situation of years ago.  All those who said we had to do what it takes to sign him.  When things didn't unfold as expected or hoped, we heard complaints and moaning til his contract and playing days were over.  If you rfeally think Mauer tanked, that's your business.  But, I saw a guy trying to do his best on and off the field.

Fair weather fans should migrate somewhere else.  In Minnesota, you can't always predict the weather.

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1 minute ago, RickOShea said:

I smell the Joe Mauer contract situation of years ago.  All those who said we had to do what it takes to sign him.  When things didn't unfold as expected or hoped, we heard complaints and moaning til his contract and playing days were over.  If you rfeally think Mauer tanked, that's your business.  But, I saw a guy trying to do his best on and off the field.

Fair weather fans should migrate somewhere else.  In Minnesota, you can't always predict the weather.

Being a fair weather fan is 100% more rational....

The Mauer contract was fair, no doubt. And it didn't hinder the team.....once Ryan was gone they spent way more money.....

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19 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Will he play full seasons? Is he worth Donaldson money right now for five years? How much do you lose if he can play out a contract, but not fulltime? Or should it just be the problem of another team.

 

So much is at stake in his final 25 game run for this season as other teams scout him...carefully. His next season, as a Twin or not, is essential to Byron. If he plays the whole season to the satisfaction of his past couple (or 162 games), he is set. But I don't see another team necessarily trading for him and then signing him for the $100-125 million he reportedly deserves. Which means he becomes a rental and the Twins get a high recent draft pick and another decent player in the mix, more or less...probably less.

 

The pain is if Buxton literally sucks, the Twins option is a QO at season's end to get a draft pick, or nothing...unless he is healthy enough to bring something, anything back at the trade deadline. Like Berrios, I think Buxton is looking towards a glorious future, or so his agent is telling him.

Him being bad for 25 games shows nothing to any front office. It is a tiny sample size. People either believe in him or not at this point.

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17 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

I smell the Joe Mauer contract situation of years ago.  All those who said we had to do what it takes to sign him.  When things didn't unfold as expected or hoped, we heard complaints and moaning til his contract and playing days were over.

Is it possible these were different individuals doing the advocating and later the complaining?

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Mauer was paid millions and how many Championships did he bring? ZER0. He brought fans to the park and helped the Pohlads recoup some of the millions they spent, Did he bring in enough to cover his contract? What is the goal? Making money or winning Championships? We can argue the Twins have a better chance of another WS title with Buxton verses without, but if he's always hurt, he becomes a very expensive part-time player that probably isn't going to make a difference in a quest for another ring. Can't recall a Championship team winning it all when their best player/s only play part-time. My biggest gripe about Buxton...... we are at the point of his career where he will become a Free Agent and he really hasn't even played a full season yet. How do you put a value on a player like that?

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26 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Is it possible these were different individuals doing the advocating and later the complaining?

Yes, but it's also probably true that many who supported the contract turned sour when it didn't pan out.

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1 hour ago, RickOShea said:

I smell the Joe Mauer contract situation of years ago.  All those who said we had to do what it takes to sign him.  When things didn't unfold as expected or hoped, we heard complaints and moaning til his contract and playing days were over.  If you rfeally think Mauer tanked, that's your business.  But, I saw a guy trying to do his best on and off the field.

Fair weather fans should migrate somewhere else.  In Minnesota, you can't always predict the weather.

The contract's size and length was acceptable for Mauer's track record, but turned into a millstone once he sustained injuries and lost the ability to play catcher. As for Buxton... he already has an astronomical number of injuries and doesn't have anything close to the track record Mauer had at the plate (as a hitter). He's in his prime now and they'd be paying him in his 30s... I simply can't see an extension ending well for the Twins. 

It is a lose-lose situation for the Twins... if they extend him he likely won't be worth the money and Twins fans will moan like they did with Mauer. If they don't extend him, the fans will lament their inability to re-sign their homegrown talent. 

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1 hour ago, RickOShea said:

Yes, but it's also probably true that many who supported the contract turned sour when it didn't pan out.

I'm sure there were those who voiced no  opinion before or after, some only before, some only after, and a few who tried to have it both ways. I just don't see a reason to paint an entire fanbase with one brush.

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3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. That's my reasoning.

25% of Buxton's hits in 2020 came from infield grounders. Make that 15% to be close to his average year. In 2019, his infield hit rate was 18%. Drop that to 12% (still good but simulating a lost step).

Results:

  • 2020 From .254/.267/.577 OPS .844 to .231/.244/.544 OPS .788. He literally drops over 50 points of OPS.
  • 2019 From .262/.314/.513 OPS .827 to .247/.298/.498 OPS .776. Again, a 50 point OPS drop.

I don't believe people realize just how unbelievably important Buxton's ability to beat that ground ball out by a step is to his game at the plate. He gets a lot of his OPS from those hits.

Yeah, I still don't believe any of this.

First of all, 8 of Buxton's 33 hits came on infield grounders? Doubtful. 

 

Second of all, he's not turning into Matt LeCroy. He will be an exceptionally fast runner into his late 30s at least. Not as fast, sure, but still very fast.

He's not losing 50 points of OPS over infield grounders. 

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Why is there no poll yet on how his next injury happens?

That's the only thing that matters: the guy staying on the field until the end of the baseball season.  Another injury, even an unlucky one, makes the entire situation even harder to work with.

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15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Agree to disagree on what? Literally everyone actually involved and with direct knowledge of the situation says 7/80 is/was agreed upon. Your argument is that they're all wrong (or lying) and you know better. So, sure, agree to disagree.

I believe he will get more guaranteed as A FA was my point.  And I'm saying we will have to wait and see, but yes he will.

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If 7/$80 is acceptable and the "incentives" are what's holding this up that is insane !!!  Tie his incentives to games played.  If Buxton PLAYS he will be "productive."  In many ways.  I would pay him up to $25 million a year with with games played incentives added in EASILY.  Maybe more in years 6 & 7.  As wise people on here have mentioned:  We don't have anybody who is even close to a replacement in CF.  If the Twins are going to have a prayer to be relevant and contend they need much better pitching...AND...BUXTON !!  If Buxton gets hurt and doesn't play in the necessary games to attain various bonuses the Twins are PROTECTED.  If he plays, he will be worth every dollar.  Heck, Buxton being up gives me a reason to tune into or go to a game now.  I'm certainly not engaging with anything Twins to see Jake Cave play !!  When you look at what his last 153 games played line is, that's impressive.  You load incentives tied to games played.  If Buxton plays, he gets PAID !  If he doesn't, the Twins don't have a ton of guaranteed money like Mauer's contract weighing them down.  This is NOT rocket science.

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Lots of great Buxton comments.  It's too bad injuries have derailed his career.  I think the Twins offered him a fair contract due to all of his injuries.  He is a career .247 hitter in 7 seasons.  He had a great April now people are comparing him to Trout and others and giving him superstar status.  Since when does one month make him an all star?  I like him, and hope they can sign him but let's be reasonable. He needs to prove it by staying on the field and vastly improving on his .247 career average!

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1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If 7/$80 is acceptable and the "incentives" are what's holding this up that is insane !!! 

My guess is the FO is looking for what most of us think, base it on games played each year. and Buxton and his team are looking for if he hits a milestone it guarantees money down the line.

I can't imagine Buxton accepting a contract that pays him 11 million, than 24, and back down to around 11 the next year an so on

Just my opinion on what is hold the incentives part up.

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The player's union doesn't like highly incentivized contracts.  

We can be theoretical about this if we want, of course, but know that such a contract is incredibly unlikely to be accepted by the union.  The fear is once one highly incentivized contract drops, the precedent will be set and other such contracts will follow.

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Players with a history if injuries when they are young rarely become more durable as they age.  Yes, there are exceptions.  Paul Molitor might be one example, but it is not a good one for Buxton as Molitor became a full-time DH, and if Buxton did that it would definitely lower his overall value.

That said, if they can sign him to a reasonable contract (i.e. one that does not prevent the team from improving in other areas), then they should do it.  If not, trade him for the best offer they can get.

If another team wants to offer him a significant amount of cash to be a part-time player, that is fine with me.

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13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Yeah, I still don't believe any of this.

First of all, 8 of Buxton's 33 hits came on infield grounders? Doubtful. 

 

Second of all, he's not turning into Matt LeCroy. He will be an exceptionally fast runner into his late 30s at least. Not as fast, sure, but still very fast.

He's not losing 50 points of OPS over infield grounders. 

You do the math then. www.fangraphs.com. Knock yourself out.

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On 8/23/2021 at 9:02 AM, Joey P said:

Trading Buxton would be one of the worst decisions this team could make. We need to pay him what he wants. At some point he will stop getting hurt. I honestly believe that he does not want to move. 

Why do you think that at some point he will stop getting hurt? Some people are more prone to injury and healing times are slower. 

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1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

You do the math then. www.fangraphs.com. Knock yourself out.

I'm not really an expert on some of the advanced stats, but I believe you are citing the IFH% stat of 25.7%?
Based on the fangraphs pop-up explanation, it appears that is the % of hits on infield ground balls (GB).  So in other words, 25.7% of 36.5%, or 9.38% of his total BIP (balls in play.) And that's only BIP, not total ABs and counting walks or strikeouts.  I think this might be the wrong hill to die on.

While you are at fangraphs though, make sure to check out the Hard hit %, the barrels %, wRC+ and other stats.  Pretty exciting if you ask me. 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong though.
image.png.217c81c8f6fb04c4a037729b28ca7248.png

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8 minutes ago, TwinsAce said:

I'm not really an expert on some of the advanced stats, but I believe you are citing the IFH% stat of 25.7%?
Based on the fangraphs pop-up explanation, it appears that is the % of hits on infield ground balls (GB).  So in other words, 25.7% of 36.5%, or 9.38% of his total BIP (balls in play.) And that's only BIP, not total ABs and counting walks or strikeouts.  I think this might be the wrong hill to die on.

While you are at fangraphs though, make sure to check out the Hard hit %, the barrels %, wRC+ and other stats.  Pretty exciting if you ask me. 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong though.
image.png.217c81c8f6fb04c4a037729b28ca7248.png

However, if you look at baseball reference, it does appear 7 Infield hits in 2020 and 9 in 2021.
I guess you can choose to use that stat if you want.  I personally think it ignores all of the growth we've seen in Buxton now for more than a year. 

Also, it ignores the fact that players like Nelson Cruz also get infield hits (second snip), so it's unlikely Buxton will lose that aspect of his game anytime soon.

image.png.dcacec0da613995c3de0ecd8951a38c9.pngimage.png.47e38113f83cd65e313cc1dd916fdb52.png

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19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I agee. I don't believe in his recent stats and I think it's too late to view Buxton as a prospect who took it to the next level.

You're putting faith in the recent excellent performance at the plate as proof Buxton was still growing and did take it to the next level.

It results in us having polar opposite opinions on him. September probably wouldn't change either of our opinions on the subject. Luckily, neither one of us have jobs depending on how Buxton performs or what contract he might sign.

I haven't viewed Buxton as a prospect for years. I viewed him as an incredibly talented player who was drastically underperforming his skills while changing his swing, drastically, multiple times mid-season. He then went back to square 1, simplified his swing, got real aggressive hunting fastballs, and started hitting the way basically everyone thought he would.

Josh Donaldson didn't figure his hitting out until he overhauled his swing before his age 27 season and became a perennial MVP candidate. Nelson Cruz didn't figure it out until he was 28. Jose Bautista was 29. Max Muncy was 27. Justin Turner 29. The list goes on and on. And none of those guys had anywhere near the natural abilities Buxton does. You're more than welcome to view Buxton however you choose to, but to suggest that him being 25 before he figured it out means he's not actually a good hitter and is the 90-95 OPS+ guy he was his first few years seems overly negative. And, by the way, he got MVP votes with a 93 OPS+ in 140 games in 2017 because he does so many things on the field. 

And as for his infield hits falling off because he's going to get slow, again, he's 27 years old, not 35. And there's no reason to believe he's suddenly going to stop being fast. He comes into camp in shape every year and clearly puts in the work to keep his body in top shape. Him going from the 100th percentile in sprint speed to the 95th percentile (he's in the 99th percentile this year) in sprint speed takes almost nothing away from his production. You're talking the loss of a handful infield hits per season starting 4 years down the road. So from the age of 31-34/35 he'll be still OPSing higher than league average while still providing gold glove defense in CF. I just don't understand any part of your stance. At basically 11M/year base there is just very little downside to signing him to an extension.

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On 8/23/2021 at 12:11 PM, chopper0080 said:

I guess my question is, if you aren't going to sign your own developmental players like Jose Berrios or Byron Buxton long-term, who are you going to sign? My understanding was that tax payer dollars going to build a beautiful stadium was to ensure the Twins were not the Oakland A's of the north.

The As have had more success than the Twins since Target field has opened. Not a good comparison. Berrios is a number 3 on a real competing team. We need an actual Ace. Calm down. 

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On 8/23/2021 at 10:02 AM, Joey P said:

Trading Buxton would be one of the worst decisions this team could make. We need to pay him what he wants. At some point he will stop getting hurt. I honestly believe that he does not want to move. 

Pay him what he wants, how about pay for 36% of what he is worth since he doesn't play more than that in last 4 years.  What he wants and what he deserves are millions apart.  No faith in the guy who had one out of this world month in his career.  

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