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How confident are you in the FO to turn this around?


cHawk
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8 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I am 100% with you. If these guys are gonna be aces, meaning true bonafide aces. They are in the show at 21-22. We don't have ANY of those types of arms. We have guys that were drafted low, etc. We had our chances to take top pitching the last 10 years and always want to try and get SS and CFers around here. 

There isn't a pitching prospect in the Twins system that rates out as an Ace type. It is the same exact thing it always is. Guys that profile into that 3-5 starter role or long relief man. 

We need guys in this day and age with hammer offspeed pitches or guys that run the gun up toward 95-99 mph with movement and command. Those are aces.

You have to take chances, both in your drafting, trading and international signings though if you want those kinds of pitchers. Twins have always played it safe and continue to do so. 

 

Even as good as this kid from Toronto seems to be. IMO, that trade needed to be centered on the very best pitching prospect you could get. We already have Lewis and Buxton to tantalize us with athleticm. And to be honest, neither one of them has done a hell of alot for the team yet either. 

 

 

21-22 for a pitcher to be an ace? So, zero college pitchers are ever aces? Every HS pitcher is up in 3-4 years, or not even a number 2? 

I'll take that bet.....

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31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

21-22 for a pitcher to be an ace? So, zero college pitchers are ever aces? Every HS pitcher is up in 3-4 years, or not even a number 2? 

I'll take that bet.....

OK, we can run that out to 23 then. 

 

If the kid is a top pitcher in college and is drafted high and produces right away, BANG ML roster. 

 

My point is, when these kids have been in our system for 2-4 years, are in their mid 20's and haven't been to the show yet, the chances of them being anything more than that 3-5 starter I was talking about is very little. 

 

 

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21 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

OK, we can run that out to 23 then. 

 

If the kid is a top pitcher in college and is drafted high and produces right away, BANG ML roster. 

 

My point is, when these kids have been in our system for 2-4 years, are in their mid 20's and haven't been to the show yet, the chances of them being anything more than that 3-5 starter I was talking about is very little. 

 

 

Do you have any recent examples of guys going from college to MLB in their draft year? I can only think of Chris Sale, who isn’t that recent anymore. And how does your idea explain pitchers like Scherzer and DeGrom?

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On 8/5/2021 at 6:03 PM, Linus said:

Regarding my earlier post there are many ways to develop pitching that don’t take 5 years. Hell they had a very good staff last year. While there is no question that the prior FO made some horrendous pitching choices it has nothing to do with the current state of our pitching. 

Good point.  Odorizzi and and Maeda were both trades.  Pineda has been a good FA signing and the odds are decent he is back next year.  They just acquired 3 good SP prospects.  Two are on the cusp and the other is a year or year and a half away.  They also just got Gant at the deadline.  IDK if one or all four of them are going to be MLB players but its not going to take five years or even 3 years to determine if the are MLB players.   Romo and Clippard were also FA signings.  I would guess we are going to see a couple RPs added via free agency next year.

They got Wisler off Waivers and now Hamilton / Garcia / Garza.  Will any of them contribute.  IDK but as much as people complain about waiver additions, lots a productive RPs are acquired off waivers and contribute within a short time frame.  Minaya was a free agent.  He looks like he could be part of the solution in 2022 as well.  

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Falvine duo will get their chance to rectify the pitching and roster this offseason and then there can be a more solid look at their ability to put together a quick return to competitive baseball. The Twins are loaded with prospects, suspects, and players that are duplicated on their roster with Jeffers/Garver as just one example. There are some good choices of free agents and an ability to make good trades. I would hope for two big signings, two minor signings, and two trades, one of which needs to be major. The repeat of past practices would be problematic.

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On 8/4/2021 at 4:50 PM, Thegrin said:

Can they fix it next year? Will they ever fix it?

1. It is very hard to see how they will replace Berrios in the '22 rotation.

2. Unless Rocco changes his tactics in games where they are behind, they will never develop our relievers.

3. They drafted average speed with Jeffers, Kiriloff & Larnach. (and Arraez.) They need to teach them to be smart base runners.

4. Teach the outfielders to hit the cut off man. There are too many runners reaching 2b on singles because of futile throws to home.

5. Can't anybody throw the ball over the darn plate???  :)

Isn't the proper sequence: 1.  The FO and Player Development acquires the talent. 2. The minor league coaches and managers develop the talent. 3. Rocco manages the talent at the MLB level.  If the basics aren't in place by the time they reach the show, then 1 and 2, haven't done their jobs.

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When they, the Pohlads, replaced Jerry Bell I was so happy I could scream.  Ron Gardenhire never had an original thought in his years of managing.  But now Baldelli puts Couloumbe out there to close a game and I'm going, "This guy is not part of anybody's future; what are you doing?"  Did the Front Office know that Sano was gonna turn into an automatic strike-out with runners in scoring position?  I didn't.  Will Rooker, Larnach, and Kiroloff turn into Sano or real major league players.  The only chance we have for a legit star is Buxton and they low ball him.  Berrios mad because they argued over a couple hundred thousand?  I sure don't know if that's true.  Getting rid of Dozier when he was on the way down was applauded by me. 

My best marker of both the front office and the Pohlad's being cheap will be whether they put out a reasonable offer to Buxton.  I want him on the team and feel like his injuries are not his fault.  If he is a malingerer, Baldellio and the FO should know that by now, but can you trust that if they don't sign him?

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3 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

Isn't the proper sequence: 1.  The FO and Player Development acquires the talent. 2. The minor league coaches and managers develop the talent. 3. Rocco manages the talent at the MLB level.  If the basics aren't in place by the time they reach the show, then 1 and 2, haven't done their jobs.

Yes.  However, the FO is accountable for the other units of the organization.  If the proper development does not take place, it is up to them to institute new practices or replace the personnel who are failing.  The staff was pilfered by other teams which speaks well of the people they put in place.  Did the departures hurt.  Probably at least in the short-term.  We are going to be in a much better position to evaluate the organization by the end of next year.

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Pretty optimistic... given the number of games that we have lost late with the lead.. think the last time I checked it was 40.. we win half of those we are in the wild card race. Pitching still is a concern. Why we left the geriatrics department continue to get pounded without flinching is concerning ... FO needs to do better about evaluating that situation. 

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To add to the conversation of how quickly "ace" caliber pitcher ascend in the minors:

  • deGrom - Draft a22, MLB a26, ace a26
  • Scherzer - Draft a22, MLB a23, ace a28
  • Cole - Draft a20, MLB a22, ace a24
  • Sale - Draft a21, MLB a21, ace a23
  • Greinke - Draft a18, MLB a20, ace a25
  • Verlander - Draft a22, MLB a22, ace a28
  • Wheeler - Draft a20, MLB a23, ace a30
  • Bauer - Draft a20, MLB a21, ace a27
  • Kershaw - Draft a18, MLB a20, ace a21
  • Strasburg - Draft a20, MLB a21, ace a21

I'd say typical ace caliber pitchers (consistent sub/near 3.00 ERA) take 1-3 years to make MLB. Most aces seem to be drafted after their college sophomore year; however, far more college pitchers are signed in general because it's pretty rare to see a high round high school pitcher drafted.

It's also worth noting the stage teams are in when they promote to the big leagues. Are they competitive or are they rebuilding and manipulating service time?

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On 8/8/2021 at 2:14 PM, bean5302 said:

To add to the conversation of how quickly "ace" caliber pitcher ascend in the minors:

  • deGrom - Draft a22, MLB a26, ace a26
  • Scherzer - Draft a22, MLB a23, ace a28
  • Cole - Draft a20, MLB a22, ace a24
  • Sale - Draft a21, MLB a21, ace a23
  • Greinke - Draft a18, MLB a20, ace a25
  • Verlander - Draft a22, MLB a22, ace a28
  • Wheeler - Draft a20, MLB a23, ace a30
  • Bauer - Draft a20, MLB a21, ace a27
  • Kershaw - Draft a18, MLB a20, ace a21
  • Strasburg - Draft a20, MLB a21, ace a21

I'd say typical ace caliber pitchers (consistent sub/near 3.00 ERA) take 1-3 years to make MLB. Most aces seem to be drafted after their college sophomore year; however, far more college pitchers are signed in general because it's pretty rare to see a high round high school pitcher drafted.

It's also worth noting the stage teams are in when they promote to the big leagues. Are they competitive or are they rebuilding and manipulating service time?

Correct and this is exactly what I was getting at in my post. 

 

One guy took till 26 to get the show, the rest were up before 24. If you are good, going to be great, you are up here in your early and mid 20s already playing big boy ball. Not sitting in A or AA like the guys in our system. As usual, you have a bunch of 3-5 starter types. Exactly the problem with this organization for many years. We don't develop pitching. 
 

PS - Every team in the league develops those same back end of the rotation starters...

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18 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Correct and this is exactly what I was getting at in my post. 

 

One guy took till 26 to get the show, the rest were up before 24. If you are good, going to be great, you are up here in your early and mid 20s already playing big boy ball. Not sitting in A or AA like the guys in our system. As usual, you have a bunch of 3-5 starter types. Exactly the problem with this organization for many years. We don't develop pitching. 
 

PS - Every team in the league develops those same back end of the rotation starters...

I think think what nullifies this as something to be expected by the Twins or any other team is that your list is 10 guys from roughly the last 10 years and there are 30 teams.  It kind of goes without saying that some of the generational players ascend through the minor leagues quickly.  If your point is that they are not generational players, I think we already aware.  Generational players are not the only players that can impact a roster.  

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28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think think what nullifies this as something to be expected by the Twins or any other team is that your list is 10 guys from roughly the last 10 years and there are 30 teams.  It kind of goes without saying that some of the generational players ascend through the minor leagues quickly.  If your point is that they are not generational players, I think we already aware.  Generational players are not the only players that can impact a roster.  

I didn't say anything about players that can impact a roster. Any player that is of starting caliber in the major leagues will imact their roster.

 

Studs, #1 and 2 starters. That is all I am worried about. 

 

3-5s can be had at any time in free agency or drafted and developed with late round picks or had in trades every year. And if you aren't going to have it in your starting rotation, then you better have a knock out bullpen.

 

This is what separates teams that can compete for titles from those that can't IMO. Stud pitching. Buy it or develop/trade for it. Twins have done neither, thus the reason they haven't won a playoff game in 800 years. 

 

Teams that can develop it or have bought it: Cleveland, Tampa, LA, NY, Boston, Oakland. Houston.  SEE A TREND HERE?

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And if you want to continue to believe that guys that are 24-26 and still in the minor leagues are going to save this franchise, go for it. 

I will continue my belief that talent is talent and it rises to the top quickly, always has. In the last 20 years, I will bet my house that there are more guys that developed into ML aces called up before they are 23 than those that have been older than that when they debuted. Hell, even bullpen arms usually work this way.

 

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