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The Twins Bought Low on Austin Martin


But what is really overpaying? If it is 2 mil more per year to ensure your young, dependable and talented pitcher stays with the team, why is that a deal breaker? A 5 year deal pays him to 33 which is not old for a pitcher so you likely don't see a drop off in production. It is an area of weakness without significant talent ready to replace him so you aren't just creating another hole that you will end up spending 15 mil on a replacement to fill. He has also stayed healthy so even if he tops out at a fringe #1 SP, you at least have that to count on. 

 

I understand not giving out 10 year deals. I also understand that teams want to not overpay for players. That said, the Twins failed in letting it get to this point by trying to pinch pennies instead of retaining a young player who should have stayed a part of their core.

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Sub 4 era since 2017 with the exception of the 2020 season.

20+ starts every year since 2017 except 2020.

Over 10 wins every year since 2017 except 2020.

WHIP under 1.23 every since 2017 except 2020.

 

I agree that he may never be one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball. But I can't say that he won't be one of the 15 best, and we have not shown any ability to develop a replacement for him. I am willing to pay 5 mil over production per year to ensure my franchise retains it's reliable and solid young pitcher. Now we just hope one of our pitching prospects can develop into a player close to as good as Berrios. Competitive teams don't fret over 5 mil extra to ensure they have a top core of young players.

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3 hours ago, chopper0080 said:

But what is really overpaying? If it is 2 mil more per year to ensure your young, dependable and talented pitcher stays with the team, why is that a deal breaker? A 5 year deal pays him to 33 which is not old for a pitcher so you likely don't see a drop off in production. It is an area of weakness without significant talent ready to replace him so you aren't just creating another hole that you will end up spending 15 mil on a replacement to fill. He has also stayed healthy so even if he tops out at a fringe #1 SP, you at least have that to count on. 

 

I understand not giving out 10 year deals. I also understand that teams want to not overpay for players. That said, the Twins failed in letting it get to this point by trying to pinch pennies instead of retaining a young player who should have stayed a part of their core.

Your argument could also support bringing Eddie Rosario back, claiming “that is the price for your young LF” for $10M. Which would’ve been a pretty unwise move.

If you’re looking for a base for Berrios, look at someone like Lance McCullers. He’s paid $17M/year. That’s about how much someone like Berrios should make. Not $30M/year.

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9 minutes ago, cHawk said:

Your argument could also support bringing Eddie Rosario back, claiming “that is the price for your young LF” for $10M. Which would’ve been a pretty unwise move.

If you’re looking for a base for Berrios, look at someone like Lance McCullers. He’s paid $17M/year. That’s about how much someone like Berrios should make. Not $30M/year.

Except Lance has never more than 128 innings in a season since 2017 while Jose has never pitched less than 145 outside of 2020. In fact, if I average innings pitched per season (removing 2019 for Lance and replacing it with his 2015 season) Lance averages 123.83 innings and 7.6 wins while Jose averages 179.13 innings and 13.3 wins. And yes, if you project Lance's price per inning pitched per year to Berrios, it comes out to around 25 mil per year, but 5 mil to get to 30 is far from an overpay.

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19 minutes ago, cHawk said:

Your argument could also support bringing Eddie Rosario back, claiming “that is the price for your young LF” for $10M. Which would’ve been a pretty unwise move.

If you’re looking for a base for Berrios, look at someone like Lance McCullers. He’s paid $17M/year. That’s about how much someone like Berrios should make. Not $30M/year.

Also, regarding Rosario, we had Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, and Kiriloff on the roster or primed for a call up. We don't have that in starting pitching IMO. 

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21 minutes ago, chopper0080 said:

Except Lance has never more than 128 innings in a season since 2017 while Jose has never pitched less than 145 outside of 2020. In fact, if I average innings pitched per season (removing 2019 for Lance and replacing it with his 2015 season) Lance averages 123.83 innings and 7.6 wins while Jose averages 179.13 innings and 13.3 wins. And yes, if you project Lance's price per inning pitched per year to Berrios, it comes out to around 25 mil per year, but 5 mil to get to 30 is far from an overpay.

It doesn’t matter what the “overpay” threshold is. If it’s by definition, “not an overpay” why would Berrios consider it an overpay? Why would he stay because of something that is by definition “not an overpay?”

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1 hour ago, cHawk said:

It doesn’t matter what the “overpay” threshold is. If it’s by definition, “not an overpay” why would Berrios consider it an overpay? Why would he stay because of something that is by definition “not an overpay?”

(Edit: just to get back to convo regarding baseball and focus less on debating the meaning of overpay)

"And yes, if you project Lance's price per inning pitched per year to Berrios, it comes out to around 25 mil per year, but I feel 5 mil over that to get to 30 is a tolerable overpay and does not hold back the franchise at all."

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27 minutes ago, chopper0080 said:

(Edit: just to get back to convo regarding baseball and focus less on debating the meaning of overpay)

"And yes, if you project Lance's price per inning pitched per year to Berrios, it comes out to around 25 mil per year, but I feel 5 mil over that to get to 30 is a tolerable overpay and does not hold back the franchise at all."

Yes, I agree. $25M is his market value. Still, he made it clear he wouldn’t sign here for that price.

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On 8/3/2021 at 10:59 AM, Tim said:

You are aware that every single player, prior to playing a major league game, is considered a prospect, right? These are 2 very good, young players. Believe it or not, Berrios was once a prospect!

100 percent aware of that. My point is probably only 10 percent of the guys that make that list of prospects ever make it big.  We have one that had made it.

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On 8/3/2021 at 11:15 AM, bean5302 said:

Berrios was not interested in signing with the Twins likely at or below market value. That was clear. Would you be okay with 8 years and $280MM for Berrios? An absolute massive and guaranteed overpay so he had no choice but to sign the worst contract in Minnesota Twins history? A contract which would utterly cripple the franchise for the next decade?

If so, I'm not sure you're much of a Twins fan. If not, then the Twins had 2 options:

1. Let Berrios walk at the end of 2022 with (maybe) a comp round pick for 2023 or

2. Trade him.

The Twins chose number 2 and now have 2 top 50 level prospects in the high minors with super high ceilings and expected low floors.

Would you want to sign with a club that routinely does this with their young talent? I wouldn't either. I question whether I can remain a fan of this team, it's been 41 years of this for me.  Why dump him now, honestly? He has a year and a half left on his deal. If I'm the twins I'm doing everything I can to keep him happy. I don't care if it's $280 million, it's not my money. These teams that are 'regularly' competitive are spending on their pitching.  The Jays fleeced us.  Got a stud by dumping their failed picks on our front doorstep. 

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On 8/10/2021 at 6:47 AM, Lefty said:

Would you want to sign with a club that routinely does this with their young talent? I wouldn't either. I question whether I can remain a fan of this team, it's been 41 years of this for me.  Why dump him now, honestly? He has a year and a half left on his deal. If I'm the twins I'm doing everything I can to keep him happy. I don't care if it's $280 million, it's not my money. These teams that are 'regularly' competitive are spending on their pitching.  The Jays fleeced us.  Got a stud by dumping their failed picks on our front doorstep. 

What other young talent in the last 10 years have the Twins traded away or not signed?  I suppose you could mean Rosario, but other than that you have to go back to Hunter and Santana and both of those happened nearly 15 years ago under a completely different front office.

I am guessing either the Twins didn't think that Berrios is worth $25M+ per year long term OR they have a good feeling he wants to test free agency regardless and realized this probably is when his value is the highest and pulled the trigger.

I am not sure how in the world you can call a 22 year old and the 5th overall pick LAST year who is holding his own in AA in his 1st year in the minor leagues a "failed pick."  And for that matter,  SWR is only 20 in AA, striking out 13 per 9.  His control is a little suspect, but he is a Top 100 guy for a reason.  Calling either of these guys failed picks is just crazy.

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On 8/4/2021 at 8:30 AM, Whitey333 said:

If these two prospects are as good as the hype train, and FO says it will be great.  As of now they are just prospects.  Yes everyone started as a prospect but very few prospects make it.  My opinion on Berrios is I wish we would have kept him but I partially understand the thinking on it to get something before he leaves.  But it's the same old crap the Twins throw at us.  We only have prospects and hope.  If the Twins would have paid him years ago instead of going on the cheap, maybe we wouldn't have even been in this spot.  Nothing changes in Twins philosophy of just selling hope.

Everyone seems to be down on the Twins and the front office.    The team won the Division the last two years and were projected by just about everyone to win this year and were ranked among the top 5 in all of baseball to start this season.   They've had a rotten season but the last few series have given us a glimpse as to why they were highly regarded at the start.    I will also quibble with your statement that very few prospects make it.   Last study I found is that a little over half of position players in the top 20 succeed and a third end up superior.   Everyone in the minors is a prospect and few make it but top 20 are more likely to make it than not.

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On 8/10/2021 at 7:47 AM, Lefty said:

Would you want to sign with a club that routinely does this with their young talent? I wouldn't either. I question whether I can remain a fan of this team, it's been 41 years of this for me.  Why dump him now, honestly? He has a year and a half left on his deal. If I'm the twins I'm doing everything I can to keep him happy. I don't care if it's $280 million, it's not my money. These teams that are 'regularly' competitive are spending on their pitching.  The Jays fleeced us.  Got a stud by dumping their failed picks on our front doorstep. 

I'm not sure where the $280M is coming from (yes, I know someone else threw this number out there first).  He's not going to get that from anybody and I doubt he or his agent asked for anything like that.  This seems to be an emerging pattern, as we threw around an irrational number for Rosario last year, too.  The crazy thing is, we are sticking to that number for Rosario even after it was proven to be inaccurate.

Anyway, Berrios is a good comp for Radke, and I think Berrios will make about what Radke made, adjusted for the new salary norms in the MLB.  

Although Radke was a good pitcher, we all know he wasn't ever quite an ace at his peak, and in most years he was more of a mid-rotation guy, leaning toward being a #2.  Like Radke, Berrios is dependable and solid, and I wish he could have stayed too, but I think the Twins got a good return.  Sure, they probably did not get an ace, but they got 2 promising guys and at least one of them should be able to slot into the middle of the rotation.  Personally, I feel like both of them will "pan out" in that they will both be able to pitch for the Twins in the future and do reasonably well.

This isn't the May/Meyer trades of a decade ago which sunk the team for a long time, where it was obvious to everyone except journalists sympathetic to the Twins or Twins fans that it was not going to end well.  Twins fans did a lot of selective reading on those two guys when they were prospects.  May of course ended up doing well in the bullpen, eventually, but that's not what the Twins traded for.

This team made a lot of mistakes this year, but I think you can feel OK about this trade.  Worry about the other stuff.  ;)

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