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1 minute ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

BTV uses Fangraphs valuations as part of their formula, and I know they update them monthly around this part of the season. Why shouldn’t they update, with new information?

They have updated player values minutes to hours after trades to reflect the large discrepancies in returns. Check the changes in the Yankee prospects sent to Texas for Gallo among others.  Fun site to provoke thought  but not remotely close. 

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13 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I don’t think there is any reason to suspect anything nefarious from Fangraphs. Prospect evaluators have been overwhelmed the past few weeks with the draft — I think BA hadn’t even published most of their midseason lists yet. Besides, preseason 40 (with zero pro experience) to midseason 59 is not a huge shift — basically just a value step down from 55 to 50 FV.

Plus, we can about guarantee that neither the Twins or the Jays are using Fangraphs to do the player evaluations.

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26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Low A ball is two levels below AA. The two biggest steps in the minors, in my opinion are Low A to High A and High A to AA. This is especially the case after the restructuring. The competition level for Hassell is dramatically lower and he's probably an ETA of 2024-2025, cup of coffee in 2023 probably at the earliest.

An .807 OPS in AA from a first year pro as a potential shortstop is way more impressive than a .855 OPS in Low A from a first year pro as a potential center fielder, even with the age difference.

That said, Martin might have a tough row to hoe in becoming an MLB SS so that might slow him down a bit. He was primarily a 3rd baseman at Vandy before this past season when he saw more time in center field. His fielding percentage at AA SS lines right up with other Twins prospects at the position (which is to say very bad). Right now, I'd say Toronto is trying to maximize his value to the club by pushing the shortstop plan.

Sure, those are big steps, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect each of those to be taken in a year.  Hassell is doing well enough that he'll surely go to A+ next year (short of a dramatic decline in production in the last few weeks of the season).  Even if he had to repeat A+, He would still hit AA at 22.  If Hassell was matching the production in A, but was 21, or even 20, I'd be inclined to agree.  But 3 years younger at this point is just a massive difference.

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50 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

This is true.  It is certain that Berrios would have left the Twins for nothing after 2022.  It is also certain that Berrios is not somehow immune to blowing out his arm on any given pitch.

Berrios must be nothing. After all, he was a first round/supplemental compensatory pick, which is what he could have been replaced by if he refused a qualifying offer (at least under the current CBA, which may change) after he helped the Twins in 2022. And that would have been great for the prospect lists and books, too, and would have been more development years to talk and hope about.

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I know Woods-Richardson has some control problems but he was lights out at AA earlier in the year.  He has a four pitch mix and he is only 20 years old at AA.  I don't think there is another 20 year old pitcher in AA this year besides him.  The last pitcher the Twins had that was that young at AA was of course Jose Berrios.  

The K 9 is there and while the WHIP is concerning he is just 20 years old. Lot's of 20 year old's take time to reign in the control.  He is in the top 100 for a reason and that is because he has good stuff already.  I think this is a good get.  The only other pitcher I liked better was the Dodgers Ryan Pepiot but he 23 and turning 24 soon. SWR has plenty of time to refine his stuff.  FYI both pitcher's are currently in AA, SWR just happens to be 3 years younger.

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52 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Agreed, not my best take. I’m pretty bummed to lose the only homegrown pitching talent we’ve developed in the last decade. 

I doubt their chances of signing Berrios changed any today.  They were going to need to outbid everyone to sign him and I think that scenario remains the same today.  The difference is we add to prospects that individually could be as impactful as Berrios and in Martin's case even more so.  The cost is Berrios for 2022.  

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42 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

Yes, and they've already weeded out the possibility of being a bust by having a long career of success.

 

Acquiring prospects does nothing for me. They'll either be awful and we'll keep them too long or they'll be good and we'll trade them for more prospects. At no point will this formula amount to winning unless you keep your good players.

 

This is just how player acquisition works (unless you’re the Dodgers or Yankees). I’m afraid you’re in for a lot more disappointment. 

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28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Because Lewis may not be a SS and will start next year in A+ ball. Lewis will have missed 2 years and struggled in 2019.

There is 0 chance Lewis, who posted an 88 wRC+ in AA in 2019 and will turn 23 next year, will get busted down to A+, unless he is still recovering from an injury.  Especially since in his last taste of organized ball, he slashed .353/.411/.565 in the AFL after the 2019 season.

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9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Fine, instead of nefarious I'll just call it stupid. What if Martin has a minor injury that he's playing through that they're not disclosing? The guy had plenty of power at Vanderbilt (against good competition); to suddenly drop him down now after half a season at AA (and going straight from college to AA ain't easy) based on second-hand reports is arrogant and dumb.

They dropped him from 55 to 50 on the scale....you are calling people arrogant and dumb, based on what?

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Just now, Mike Sixel said:

They dropped him from 55 to 50 on the scale....you are calling people arrogant and dumb, based on what?

They're dropping him based on his power drop in half a season. After five minutes of digging, I found out his power loss was due to a change in swing after a hand injury. I think that's a pretty stupid reason to change your ranking on a guy. 

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38 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I’d be interested to see that. Did you compare them to how all prospects fare in general? And how once-traded prospects fare? I don’t think the success rate of any prospect group would be super-high, but it would be interesting to see if there was a meaningful penalty for being traded / being traded multiple times.

Because Berríos is under control for 2022, the penalty in this case is incurred by the Twins, in my opinion.

I'm sure I still have that data somewhere. I will find it and put it in a blog, and maybe update it. We'll see. My hypothesis was that truly promising prospects do not change hands from team to team. One player who stands out as an exception as I recall is Carlos Gonzalez and the great years he had in Colorado. 

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3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Fine, instead of nefarious I'll just call it stupid. What if Martin has a minor injury that he's playing through that they're not disclosing? The guy had plenty of power at Vanderbilt (against good competition); to suddenly drop him down now after half a season at AA (and going straight from college to AA ain't easy) based on second-hand reports is arrogant and dumb.

This is what evaluators do. No one can see every prospect in the country every month. And they're constantly incorporating new information into their evaluations as they receive it. Why shouldn't they? It's the same thing pro scouts do. No one is locked into giving the exact same rank/evaluation as 5 months ago.

And moving from 40 to 59 isn't exactly a death sentence for the guy. It's actually relatively minor, as far as prospect rank movements go. If that bothers you, it's probably best not to pay any attention to prospect rankings at all.

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8 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Because Berríos is under control for 2022, the penalty in this case is incurred by the Twins, in my opinion.

I'm sure I still have that data somewhere. I will find it and put it in a blog, and maybe update it. We'll see. My hypothesis was that truly promising prospects do not change hands from team to team. One player who stands out as an exception as I recall is Carlos Gonzalez and the great years he had in Colorado. 

Gio Gonzalez is the name that jumped into my mind.

Edit: maybe players named Gonzalez as more likely to be exceptions...

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20 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

There's no rule preventing the Twins from paying people. And disappointment quickly converts to apathy.

No, but there are economic realities that all but a handful of teams must confront. I don’t know why you’d expect the Twins to suddenly start spending at the top of the league. (This is all I’ll say on the matter, because it comes up literally every week in this website. It’s tedious, and no one has anything new or constructive to add.)

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At least we got something. This is prime reason why the organization needs to be careful how they treat players.

Hoping Buxton is traded as well so we simply can start over. The Twins are miles away from being able to compete and we might as well go young.

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36 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I certainly would not expect a SS when we have one waiting?  I guess if the are moveable, but still makes little to no sense when we need pitching. 

We added three very good pithing prospects this week and we are not done yet.  We are deep in SP prospects and lean in SS/CF prospects.  It is no surprise a guy who could play both SS and CF was part of the package the accepted.

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1 hour ago, notoriousgod71 said:

Yes, and they've already weeded out the possibility of being a bust by having a long career of success.

 

Acquiring prospects does nothing for me. They'll either be awful and we'll keep them too long or they'll be good and we'll trade them for more prospects. At no point will this formula amount to winning unless you keep your good players.

 

Yes!

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26 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I doubt their chances of signing Berrios changed any today.  They were going to need to outbid everyone to sign him and I think that scenario remains the same today.  The difference is we add to prospects that individually could be as impactful as Berrios and in Martin's case even more so.  The cost is Berrios for 2022.  

That’s my concern right now… 2022. Sports is an entertainment first business, and the team won’t be competitive/entertaining for the foreseeable future. The next 2 months for sure are going to be unwatchable. 

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How exciting! Berrios has a replacement already! Oops. Already sent to St. Paul.

"The Twins announced that they’ve claimed right-handed reliever Edgar Garcia off waivers from the Reds and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul. Cincinnati designated Garcia for assignment earlier in the week.

The 24-year-old Garcia has seen MLB time with the Phillies, Rays and Reds but limped to a 7.14 ERA in 46 1/3 innings. His Triple-A numbers are quite good, however, as he’s pitched to a 3.28 ERA with a 31.4 percent strikeout rate and 10.2 percent walk rate in 57 2/3 innings. Garcia averaged 95.1 mph on his heater in his brief time with the Reds and is in the last of his three minor-league option years. He can be shuttled between Triple-A and the big league roster for the rest of the season if the Twins choose, but he’ll be out of options next spring."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-claim-edgar-garcia-from-reds.html

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