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I'm a little less excited about this than the rest of the board seems to be.  SWR seems ok--he's 20, at AA, and his FIP and xFIP are pretty good, so I'm optimistic there, but I'm worried about Martin.  He's 22 at AA, so he's not particularly young for a to prospect at AA, and while I love his .424 OBP, I'm worried about his sub-.400 SLG, and .281 BA.  Sounds less like a hitter, and more like a guy with a really great eye and approach.  Fangraphs puts him at 35 currently, with a 60 future grade on the hit tool, and 35 current 50 future on game power.  If that develops then yes you have something here, but he turns 23 before the 2022 season starts--if he doesn't break out next year, I don't know what happens to his value.

I'm hoping there's maybe one more guy included here, otherwise it feels to me like maybe the offers weren't as robust as it sounded yesterday.

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Just now, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'm a little less excited about this than the rest of the board seems to be.  SWR seems ok--he's 20, at AA, and his FIP and xFIP are pretty good, so I'm optimistic there, but I'm worried about Martin.  He's 22 at AA, so he's not particularly young for a to prospect at AA, and while I love his .424 OBP, I'm worried about his sub-.400 SLG, and .281 BA.  Sounds less like a hitter, and more like a guy with a really great eye and approach.  Fangraphs puts him at 35 currently, with a 60 future grade on the hit tool, and 35 current 50 future on game power.  If that develops then yes you have something here, but he turns 23 before the 2022 season starts--if he doesn't break out next year, I don't know what happens to his value.

I'm hoping there's maybe one more guy included here, otherwise it feels to me like maybe the offers weren't as robust as it sounded yesterday.

Given FG and mlb.com have Martin in their top 25 overall, I think you are low on him. This is his first year in professional baseball, and he's hitting well (not great) in AA, and playing both SS and CF.......

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I'm glad the everyone is pretty stoked about Martin, seems like he's a pretty consensus top player. Going straight from college to AA isn't exactly a Twins move. We sure he's not going to be sent back to rookie ball? :)

Is he going to develop any power though? He didn't hit too many out of the park in college either.

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3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Given FG and mlb.com have Martin in their top 25 overall, I think you are low on him. This is his first year in professional baseball, and he's hitting well (not great) in AA, and playing both SS and CF.......

I probably am, mostly because I tend to focus on stats, rather than projection.  I will completely admit that I am potentially undervaluing both of these guys based on that.  I'll also call out that I was hoping the Dodgers move last night would force the Padres to a more desperate place, and let us get either Abrams or Hassell.  Hassell is 3 years younger, and putting up better numbers at A than Martin is at AA.  FG also rates him higher on speed, which makes him more likely to be able to play some center, I woudl think.  Abrams is 20, at AA, and putting up fairly comparable numbers to Martnin (although since his wRC+ is lower, I assume that means Abrams plays in a more hitter-friendly league).  Abrams grades out higher on every tool than Martin, particularly speed, so he would be an almost for sure SS/CF for years to come.

Now, Abrams may have been a pipe dream, but I thought a desperate Preller would maybe feel obligated to do whatever it took to get Berrios, and we could pry him away.

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1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Job security 101. Keep pushing the ETA out further. 

I think this is 100% unfair in this deal. Berrios was clear he was going to FA next year. They got a top 20 prospect, and a top 50-60 prospect, both in AA. I get being cynical, but this is not a good take, imo. 

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Just now, Cap'n Piranha said:

I probably am, mostly because I tend to focus on stats, rather than projection.  I will completely admit that I am potentially undervaluing both of these guys based on that.  I'll also call out that I was hoping the Dodgers move last night would force the Padres to a more desperate place, and let us get either Abrams or Hassell.  Hassell is 3 years younger, and putting up better numbers at A than Martin is at AA.  FG also rates him higher on speed, which makes him more likely to be able to play some center, I woudl think.  Abrams is 20, at AA, and putting up fairly comparable numbers to Martnin (although since his wRC+ is lower, I assume that means Abrams plays in a more hitter-friendly league).  Abrams grades out higher on every tool than Martin, particularly speed, so he would be an almost for sure SS/CF for years to come.

Now, Abrams may have been a pipe dream, but I thought a desperate Preller would maybe feel obligated to do whatever it took to get Berrios, and we could pry him away.

I would have loved Abrams for sure......I just didn't think he was available. Also, the Pads have no SP I know I want....

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6 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'm a little less excited about this than the rest of the board seems to be.  SWR seems ok--he's 20, at AA, and his FIP and xFIP are pretty good, so I'm optimistic there, but I'm worried about Martin.  He's 22 at AA, so he's not particularly young for a to prospect at AA, and while I love his .424 OBP, I'm worried about his sub-.400 SLG, and .281 BA.  Sounds less like a hitter, and more like a guy with a really great eye and approach.  Fangraphs puts him at 35 currently, with a 60 future grade on the hit tool, and 35 current 50 future on game power.  If that develops then yes you have something here, but he turns 23 before the 2022 season starts--if he doesn't break out next year, I don't know what happens to his value.

I'm hoping there's maybe one more guy included here, otherwise it feels to me like maybe the offers weren't as robust as it sounded yesterday.

Martin was drafted #5 overall last year. He's started his professional career at AA and is more than holding his own. Most prospect sites have his ETA as next year. The only real question anyone has had about his bat is if he'll hit 10-15 HRs or 20-25. Probably a Lewis type defender who is borderline at SS, but can go to CF, 2B, 3B or almost anywhere else easily. He's a huge get.

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14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Martin is a top 20 prospect in all of baseball....

But they really really need pitching. Woods-Richardson is a work in progress. If they were going to trade Berrios to the Jays, I would have preferred Pearson and a couple lesser prospects.

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Just now, LewFordLives said:

But they really really need pitching. Woods-Richardson is a work in progress. If they were going to trade Berrios to the Jays, I would have preferred Pearson and a couple lesser prospects.

Fair, but that post I responded to said Martin would never do anything in the majors pretty much......We all have our preferences, but really?

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I like the trade. I’m grateful for the years that Berrios gave the Twins, and I wish him luck in Toronto. Woods-Richardson seems like he could become something like Berrios if he develops well. It’s impressive that he’s already at AA at such a young age. Martin is a terrific get. I wouldn’t worry about his position. He can play all over the diamond. Fangraphs gives him a Zobrist comp in their write up of him. Great trade. 

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5 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Martin
Woods-Richardson
Lewis
Balazovic
Maybe Ryan here? Windor? I like Miranda a lot but not sure he's #5 yet.

No real disagreement, just my opinion... Martin #1, but I still like Balazovic as #2. Miranda is #5 for me - he's absolutely demolished high-minor pitching for months.

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8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think this is 100% unfair in this deal. Berrios was clear he was going to FA next year. They got a top 20 prospect, and a top 50-60 prospect, both in AA. I get being cynical, but this is not a good take, imo. 

Agreed, not my best take. I’m pretty bummed to lose the only homegrown pitching talent we’ve developed in the last decade. 

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4 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

But they really really need pitching. Woods-Richardson is a work in progress. If they were going to trade Berrios to the Jays, I would have preferred Pearson and a couple lesser prospects.

They also really really need up the middle prospects. Unless you're convinced Lewis is the SS of the future, Austin Martin is a great get to boost the chance they have their future SS in house now and ready to debut next year sometime.

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