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Pohlad: Twins "Absolutely Not" Having a Firesale


2 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

This article seems misleading or maybe just plain not smart.  It's including players on the 60-day IL and saying teams are over 40 roster players because of that.  The conclusion written is that the Twins can only trade for prospects because they have no room.  That's not how the IL works.  The Twins are at 40 players, as one should expect.  Trading rental players will free up space.

Those players will be on the roster next year.....that's the point. 

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5 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

This article seems misleading or maybe just plain not smart.  It's including players on the 60-day IL and saying teams are over 40 roster players because of that.  That's not how the IL works.  The Twins are at 40 players, as one should expect.  Trading rental players will free up space.

Eric Longenhagen is one of the most respected prospect writers in baseball.

The 60-day IL is reset for the offseason, which this article is factoring into its numbers and "crunch".

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5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Eric Longenhagen is one of the most respected prospect writers in baseball.

Well, there's his first problem.  

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The 60-day IL does not extend into the offseason, which this article is factoring into its numbers and "crunch".

The 40-man roster also doesn't mean much, if anything, in the offseason.  You know was well as I do that the Twins will have no trouble building the roster they want by April.  "Too many guys" is simply not going to be a problem.  To even entertain such a thing is a waste of time.  

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1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I agree that it isn't black and white, the Twins can do a little of both and still aim to compete next year (though I personally don't like half measures).

But the Rays situation is different because the Rays have shown the ability to crank out starting pitchers almost at will. The Twins have shown next to no ability to build that equity, then shift it to other areas of need by trading some. Since Berrios is the only top end starter they've developed in 20 years, it's not hard to see why some would see trading him as waiving the white flag.

I too have criticized the organizations inability to develop SPs.  However, at the risk of repeating myself, the answer is not to pursue inferior strategies because we have not executed the best practices.  The answer is fixing the inability to find and develop SPs.  The previous administration earned the label of not being able to find and develop SPs.  The verdict is not in yet on this regime.  With the additions of Ryan and Strotman, our pitching pipeline looks quite good although I am not confident their is an ace among them but some of them could turn into Berrios.  I should add I expect pitching and or a SS to be the target for trading Pineda and Berrios.

The keys as I see them to get back to contention.

1) Develop the existing SP pipeline is the crucial element in making this team a contender anytime soon.

2) Extend or resign Buxton.

3) Trade Berrios for a guy who can be as good or better than him or an elite SS prospect   

4) Move Donaldson's contract

5) Use the money saved by moving Buxton and not signing Berrios to land a top of the rotation SP.  I put this 5th only because the best case but not most likely case scenario is the SP development goes so well we don't need a FA.

6) Miranda and Lewis developing in the above average MLB players.

7) Duran might be worthy of mentioning separate from all the others because he could be an Ace or a bust.

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4 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Well, there's his first problem.  

The 40-man roster also doesn't mean much, if anything, in the offseason either.  You know was well as I do that the Twins will have no trouble building the roster they want by April.  Whether that's a good roster or not will be open for debate.

It's not saying anyone is "in trouble", the article is taking a snapshot of organizations and showing things that will factor into their decisions for the next six months. And these 40-man roster additions absolutely factor into many of the decisions that will be made between today and next February. There isn't anything misleading or not smart about giving relevant information to the audience.

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7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's not saying anyone is "in trouble", the article is taking a snapshot of organizations and showing things that will factor into their decisions for the next six months. And these 40-man roster additions absolutely factor into many of the decisions that will be made between today and next February.

I like this part of the article on the Twins:

Pending Free Agents:  3 (He then lists 5 players who will be free agents -- whoops.)
He then lists 4 "fringe" players, at least 3 of which are probably gone.

Suddenly his "45 going into next year" when including the 5 IL players is really 37 going into next year if everyone is healthy.

We have not even started talking about players with options.

This is most bubble gummy crunch in history.

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I don't see a problem with the 40 man.  I expect the Twins buyout Colome's option which leaves them +4 on the 40-man.  IMO, there are 6 fringe guys on the 40 man.  Barnes / Burrows / Ferrell / Law / Minaya / Thorpe Also losing one of Cave / Garlick or Refsnyder is not that big of a deal.  So, there are probably 9 guys that would not hurt that much to lose and I am not including Valimont / Enlow because I am not sure we should expose them.

I second Mike's preference that they trade a couple guys on the 40-man in deadline trades.  I am also hoping for quality over quantity in whatever trades they pull-off in the next couple days.  Would love to hear we have signed Buxton and traded for a top SS or SP by Friday.  We will find room for them on the 40 man.

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3 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I like this part of the article on the Twins:

Pending Free Agents:  3 (He then lists 5 players who will be free agents -- whoops.)
He then lists 4 "fringe" players, at least 3 of which are probably gone.

Suddenly his "45 going into next year" when including the 5 IL players is really 37 going into next year if everyone is healthy.

We have not even started talking about players with options.

This is most bubble gummy crunch in history.

He listed four free agents + Colome, who technically has an option. It's called out right there.

You're being pedantic about this. The meat of the interesting information about the Twins is in potential 40-man additions to start the offseason, yet you're focusing on a one-digit-off addition error and pending free agents.

If you don't care for the information in the article, so be it. But that doesn't make it "not smart". It's talking about a few different things, not all of which apply to every team on the list. The Twins don't have an immediate 40-man issue because they're selling, that's pretty obvious. Other teams have more pressing 40-man issues in the here and now. Longenhagen is using the same article format for each team, that's all.

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2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

He listed four free agents + Colome, who technically has an option. It's called out right there.

True, but 4 is still not 3.  And, for anyone following the Twins, we know Colome is gone.  Anyone following the Twins knows the number is 5.  

The author pulled some numbers out of the data pool, which anyone can do, but in this case it looks like he knows nothing about the Twins situation.  

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1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

True, but 4 is still not 3.  And, for anyone following the Twins, we know Colome is gone.  Anyone following the Twins knows the number is 5.

I literally mentioned that in the next paragaph you didn't quote.

And the responsible journalist lists the option *every* time and does not count it, even if the option is 99% sure to go one direction.

Again, none of this makes the article "not smart". If you aren't interested in it, move on.

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1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I literally mentioned that in the next paragaph you didn't quote.

And the responsible journalist lists the option *every* time and does not count it, even if the option is 99% sure to go one direction.

Again, none of this makes the article "not smart". If you aren't interested in it, move on.

Not being contrary, but I disagree.  This author pulled numbers out of a database and wrote an article about them without understanding the numbers or putting them into any context.  Everything about what that article is trying to say is "not smart."

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23 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I too have criticized the organizations inability to develop SPs.  However, at the risk of repeating myself, the answer is not to pursue inferior strategies because we have not executed the best practices.  The answer is fixing the inability to find and develop SPs.  The previous administration earned the label of not being able to find and develop SPs.  The verdict is not in yet on this regime.  With the additions of Ryan and Strotman, our pitching pipeline looks quite good although I am not confident their is an ace among them but some of them could turn into Berrios.  I should add I expect pitching and or a SS to be the target for trading Pineda and Berrios.

The keys as I see them to get back to contention.

1) Develop the existing SP pipeline is the crucial element in making this team a contender anytime soon.

2) Extend or resign Buxton.

3) Trade Berrios for a guy who can be as good or better than him or an elite SS prospect   

4) Move Donaldson's contract

5) Use the money saved by moving Buxton and not signing Berrios to land a top of the rotation SP.  I put this 5th only because the best case but not most likely case scenario is the SP development goes so well we don't need a FA.

6) Miranda and Lewis developing in the above average MLB players.

7) Duran might be worthy of mentioning separate from all the others because he could be an Ace or a bust.

I'd argue that this administration should get a bit of a pass on the SP development due to the timing of COVID relative to the development cycle of most of the top SP prospects. Had 2020 been a normal season Balazovich, Duran, Chambers (looked a lot more promising a year ago), possibly even Sands, Canterino, Enlow and Winder could have debuted late 2020 or early 2021. It sure appears that these developmental delays necessitated the Happ and Shoemaker signings. The point is that it's not like the well is dry, there is strong depth of SP talent in the organization and close to major league ready aside from some 2021 injury setbacks. 

Same goes for Kirilloff, Larnach and honestly Lewis as well. All three could have potentially reached the majors in 2020 resulting in a lot more certainty both short-term and long-term on the roster. 

Regarding keys to contention, I disagree with a lot of what you propose. I believe if this team is to be competitive in 2022 and 2023 it is absolutely critical to retain both Buxton and Berrios. There is no way in my opinion that trading either will return high enough level talent that will be impactful at the major league level in the next two years to offset the production Buxton and Berrios would theoretically provide. I really feel strongly that it's an either/or scenario, either get them both re-signed and continue building around them or tear it all down and rebuild with an eye toward probably 2024. 

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13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't see a problem with the 40 man.  I expect the Twins buyout Colome's option which leaves them +4 on the 40-man.  IMO, there are 6 fringe guys on the 40 man.  Barnes / Burrows / Ferrell / Law / Minaya / Thorpe Also losing one of Cave / Garlick or Refsnyder is not that big of a deal.  So, there are probably 9 guys that would not hurt that much to lose and I am not including Valimont / Enlow because I am not sure we should expose them.

I second Mike's preference that they trade a couple guys on the 40-man in deadline trades.  I am also hoping for quality over quantity in whatever trades they pull-off in the next couple days.  Would love to hear we have signed Buxton and traded for a top SS or SP by Friday.  We will find room for them on the 40 man.

We are in agreement on that last paragraph for sure. I'd rather they get better prospects than more prospects. And yes, SS is my top priority unless they get a SP that looks like he'll be great. Again, aim for Seattle's system....and aim high.

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I've been critical of how Baldelli treats players, who are injured, or who appear to be injured during the course of the season.  When reading of Baldelli's physical maladies, that cut short his playing career, I understand his excessive concern for players.  He had a very trying time, with fatigue, body and muscle aches, and soft tissue injuries.

While I believe he is overly cautious, I do understand the direction he is coming from.

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On 7/27/2021 at 8:42 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I mean, I don't think anyone *really* expected a full-on firesale - there are simply too many pieces to move in a week for that to happen - but it also makes sense to take a re-tool approach over a "burn it down and start over" approach.

I still think there's a very good chance the Twins move key pieces like Berríos or Donaldson, but this makes me think we won't see payroll being slashed next season, which is very good news in its own right.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-trade-rumors-rebuild-max-kepler.html

While that's good news about the fire sale, they would only have to give up 1 or 2 more players in addition to Cruz and the negative impact would be felt. Think about the combined outs made by Berros/Donaldson. Fact of the matter is, we don't have anyone that can play 3rd base like JD. While were on the topic of competency...I don't like Larnach in left field, he is too slow and his arm sucks...so if you don't have an Eddie Rosario strength arm from left field, for pete sake, hit the cutoff man!!

Oh, and speaking about Baseball IQ or the lack thereof...Sano running to 3rd lastnight in extra innings. Enough said

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1 minute ago, Emjay said:

While that's good news about the fire sale, they would only have to give up 1 or 2 more players in addition to Cruz and the negative impact would be felt. Think about the combined outs made by Berros/Donaldson. Fact of the matter is, we don't have anyone that can play 3rd base like JD. While were on the topic of competency...I don't like Larnach in left field, he is too slow and his arm sucks...so if you don't have an Eddie Rosario strength arm from left field, for pete sake, hit the cutoff man!!

Oh, and speaking about Baseball IQ or the lack thereof...Sano running to 3rd lastnight in extra innings. Enough said

Sorry, my post sounds negative...just frustrated with this organization

 

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I think we should keep Donaldson.  'Freeing up" payroll I don't think is the issue.  Perhaps distributing it to the right area is the issue.  Obviously they are on a budget.  But keep in mind MLB does not have a salary cap.  It is up to ownership to decide how much to spend.  It is up to the FO people to distribute it.  Seems like the FO has messed up in that regard.

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On 7/27/2021 at 1:41 PM, RpR said:

There has been enough posts on this site about bats not backing-up pitchers better games so if they dump what is left of the Bomba squad and replace them with crap-shoot rookies, this team, EVEN, with improved pitching, will stink worse next year than this.

They should try like hell to get Nelson back, and hope and pray that Rooker was not just Cave type flash in the pan.

Of course they could trade Larnach to Detroit for Grossman and then trade Arraez, whose fielding is not even average quality for Schoop whose numbers this year show how stupid Minnesota was for dropping him in favor of Arraez.

Arraez and Polanco are the only players who consistently get their bat on the ball.  Foolish to include their names in any trade talks.

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51 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I think we should keep Donaldson.  'Freeing up" payroll I don't think is the issue.  Perhaps distributing it to the right area is the issue.  Obviously they are on a budget.  But keep in mind MLB does not have a salary cap.  It is up to ownership to decide how much to spend.  It is up to the FO people to distribute it.  Seems like the FO has messed up in that regard.

It just astounds me when people say there is no salary cap.  None of us has a cap on spending either.  That does not change the fact that we don't spend more than we make.  If the money could be distributed better elsewhere, how is the money invested in Donaldson not an issue?   I am also curious how "obviously, they are on a budget" does not negate the fact there is no salary cap.  Do they have a limit on what they can spend or not?

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2 hours ago, RickOShea said:

I've been critical of how Baldelli treats players, who are injured, or who appear to be injured during the course of the season.  When reading of Baldelli's physical maladies, that cut short his playing career, I understand his excessive concern for players.  He had a very trying time, with fatigue, body and muscle aches, and soft tissue injuries.

While I believe he is overly cautious, I do understand the direction he is coming from.

I don't think Baldelli does too bad of a job when it comes to managing injuries.  With Buxton, it's really hard to know what the right decision is.  I would have made other decisions, and heck I'm betting I could have convinced Baldelli otherwise if given the chance, but I can't fault him for his approach.  His approach was to make sure Buxton was recovered, which is what you do for most players.

For Buxton, I think the approach is different.  Buxton might be OK today, but every day is a roll of the dice; waiting for Buxton to be perfect is a waste of time.  I would minimize Buxton's "rehab" games in the minors, especially when he is making the other minor league players look like little leaguers, and get him on the field.  

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On 7/27/2021 at 1:41 PM, RpR said:

There has been enough posts on this site about bats not backing-up pitchers better games so if they dump what is left of the Bomba squad and replace them with crap-shoot rookies, this team, EVEN, with improved pitching, will stink worse next year than this.

They should try like hell to get Nelson back, and hope and pray that Rooker was not just Cave type flash in the pan.

Of course they could trade Larnach to Detroit for Grossman and then trade Arraez, whose fielding is not even average quality for Schoop whose numbers this year show how stupid Minnesota was for dropping him in favor of Arraez.

You want to trade a prearb player (Arraez) for a guy who is going to be a free agent at the end of this year.  I liked the move when the brought Schoop here as a FA but this makes less than zero sense.  Then, you also want to trade a top prospect for a guy who prior to this year has never produced more than 1.3 WAR and will be a free agent after 2022?  I hope you are advising the teams we are negotiating trades with right now.

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6 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Not being contrary, but I disagree.  This author pulled numbers out of a database and wrote an article about them without understanding the numbers or putting them into any context.  Everything about what that article is trying to say is "not smart."

These so called baseball experts, at least nowadays, are about as accurate to the future dealings of a team, before the action as the young lady below was.

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On 7/27/2021 at 11:41 AM, RpR said:

There has been enough posts on this site about bats not backing-up pitchers better games so if they dump what is left of the Bomba squad and replace them with crap-shoot rookies, this team, EVEN, with improved pitching, will stink worse next year than this.

They should try like hell to get Nelson back, and hope and pray that Rooker was not just Cave type flash in the pan.

Of course they could trade Larnach to Detroit for Grossman and then trade Arraez, whose fielding is not even average quality for Schoop whose numbers this year show how stupid Minnesota was for dropping him in favor of Arraez.

Schoop is a good player, but he isn't going to move the dial over Arraez.  This team would still suck.

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9 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Suddenly his "45 going into next year"

Where did Longenhagen say anything about 45 going into next year?

He began with facts - the Twins currently have 45 players being protected. This is verified at the Twins' own website (26 pitchers, 19 batters): https://www.mlb.com/twins/roster/40-man

From there he looks at the individuals. Yas their wsa a tpyo. Perfectly sound analysis though, to help fans think about the day after the World Series, when all this roster counting of injured players changes, and then the lead-up to the Rule 5 draft..

 

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