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Pohlad: Twins "Absolutely Not" Having a Firesale


I mean, I don't think anyone *really* expected a full-on firesale - there are simply too many pieces to move in a week for that to happen - but it also makes sense to take a re-tool approach over a "burn it down and start over" approach.

I still think there's a very good chance the Twins move key pieces like Berríos or Donaldson, but this makes me think we won't see payroll being slashed next season, which is very good news in its own right.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-trade-rumors-rebuild-max-kepler.html

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Very encouraging read, Brock.  Hopefully next year many of us will again have an option to watch the Twins on something other than cable.

Over at Seth's Weekly Review, I asked the question....How many trades do we expect between today and Friday, I put the over/under at 2.5?

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1 hour ago, roger said:

Very encouraging read, Brock.  Hopefully next year many of us will again have an option to watch the Twins on something other than cable.

Over at Seth's Weekly Review, I asked the question....How many trades do we expect between today and Friday, I put the over/under at 2.5?

I will be disappointed if there are fewer than four total trades AT MINIMUM. There are zero excuse to have an expiring contract on this team after 3pm on Friday unless that player is so bad they cannot be moved to anyone (possibly Happ, Colome). Pineda, Robles, and Simmons are the bare minimum of players that need to be traded.

On top of that, it'd be nice to move Donaldson, though that may not be possible... but it should still be a priority by the front office, IMO. If the Twins are going to compete in any way in 2022, they need to dedicate more money to pitching, and that means moving Donaldson to clear payroll space.

As for cable, I'd have to double-check but I'm pretty sure Bally Sports plans to have a standalone app ready for next baseball season. No more AT&T and their bloated pricing structure for me, which is a good thing. What a complete waste of $92/mo this season.

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7 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Twins should be able to make some good FA signings without getting rid of Donaldson. I'd rather the Twins move Kepler and Rogers and keep Donaldson.

Interesting conundrum. I think I am with Brock. We want to compete next year, and it would be nice to have a healthy Donaldson bat, but the $24M could and should be put to use on pitching. I don't think we can do both - and I am in the must sign Buxton camp. 

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I would have liked Hayes to have asked Pohlad about the reported ultimatum given to Buxton. I'm not sure it was ever accurate, but if Pohlad isn't planning on rebuilding, you'd think a question of whether there will be continued discussions with Buxton's people should have come up.

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So let me get this right. No fire sale needed but you want to get rid of Pineda, Happ, Colome, Robles, Simmons and Donaldson? On top of already trading Cruz. That's 2/5 of the rotation, 1/4 of the BP, and the left side of the infield. Whether the players are effective or not, that is a lot of holes to fill. I am all about improving the team and getting return on expiring contracts, but that looks, sounds and smells like a fire sale.

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I mean, I don't think anyone *really* expected a full-on firesale - there are simply too many pieces to move in a week for that to happen - but it also makes sense to take a re-tool approach over a "burn it down and start over" approach.

I still think there's a very good chance the Twins move key pieces like Berríos or Donaldson, but this makes me think we won't see payroll being slashed next season, which is very good news in its own right.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-trade-rumors-rebuild-max-kepler.html

I'm probably in the minority, but I firmly believe that the Twins could find themselves back in the playoff race even if they move Berrios and Donaldson *IF* they draw the right cards in the returning packages for them. There's simply too much talent on the roster and in the system. Sometimes baseball is just weird and good teams don't perform well only to rebound the next season. (Sometimes teams that are perceived to be bad perform exceptionally well *side-eyes Giants and Red Sox*.) I'm more willing to believe that this season is the fluke, not the previous two.

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10 minutes ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

I'm probably in the minority, but I firmly believe that the Twins could find themselves back in the playoff race even if they move Berrios and Donaldson *IF* they draw the right cards in the returning packages for them. There's simply too much talent on the roster and in the system. Sometimes baseball is just weird and good teams don't perform well only to rebound the next season. (Sometimes teams that are perceived to be bad perform exceptionally well *side-eyes Giants and Red Sox*.) I'm more willing to believe that this season is the fluke, not the previous two.

I agree but boy does the front office have a really difficult path to navigate to get there. Do you keep Kepler if you extend Buxton? What is to be done with Garver? There are so many pieces that can bring back legitimate prospect hauls and the front office has a lot of flexibility to craft the organization but they need to fire with nearly 100% accuracy to pull it off.

And right now, my faith in this front office pulling that off is at an all-time low. They've barely been able to make ONE good decision in the past ten months, much less be 100% accurate.

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2 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Do they really need to move Donaldson to have enough payroll room for pitching?  40 million should be coming off the books from expiring contracts.  

This team needs a lot of pitching.

Can they do it without moving Donaldson? Maybe? But it's a lot easier to accomplish if half of Josh's salary is off the books.

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1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

So let me get this right. No fire sale needed but you want to get rid of Pineda, Happ, Colome, Robles, Simmons and Donaldson? On top of already trading Cruz. That's 2/5 of the rotation, 1/4 of the BP, and the left side of the infield. Whether the players are effective or not, that is a lot of holes to fill. I am all about improving the team and getting return on expiring contracts, but that looks, sounds and smells like a fire sale.

Pohlad said they weren't rebuilding. I think there's a significant distinction between rebuilding and trading away the players who won't be here next year anyway. It would be foolish to get nothing for players that won't help next year if someone is offering something for them.

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1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

So let me get this right. No fire sale needed but you want to get rid of Pineda, Happ, Colome, Robles, Simmons and Donaldson? On top of already trading Cruz. That's 2/5 of the rotation, 1/4 of the BP, and the left side of the infield...

That's right. Fire sales are when a team dumps all its controllable assets to initiate a rebuild because they don't believe they have the MLB talent and farm system talent to be competitive in the next 2+ years.

Fire sale would be Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Donaldson, Maeda, Garver in addition to absolutely Berrios AND Buxton with the Twins making no legitimate attempt to sign either to an extension.

The Twins have a silver lining to a terrible season right now in that they can get farm team talent to the MLB club and evaluate them without any risk to the season outcome. It remains to be seen if they're competent enough to do it.

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48 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This team needs a lot of pitching.

Can they do it without moving Donaldson? Maybe? But it's a lot easier to accomplish if half of Josh's salary is off the books.

I don't think that kind of free agent pitching will do much though. The guys who get 10-15M multi year deals are rarely any better than the crap shoot guys you get on a one or two year deal. I really, really dislike the Nolasco/Santana/Hughes kinds of deals. If you're going to make an impact with free agent pitching, you have to go big. And if the Twins aren't willing to go big with Berrios, they'd just be being spiteful to go big for a similar pitcher.

But overall, I really don't like free agent pitchers. They have to figure out how to develop them, or trade for them. The Maeda and Odorizzi deals were perhaps the best moves this front office have made. They should be making similar moves regularly. 

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1 hour ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

I'm probably in the minority, but I firmly believe that the Twins could find themselves back in the playoff race even if they move Berrios and Donaldson *IF* they draw the right cards in the returning packages for them. There's simply too much talent on the roster and in the system. Sometimes baseball is just weird and good teams don't perform well only to rebound the next season. (Sometimes teams that are perceived to be bad perform exceptionally well *side-eyes Giants and Red Sox*.) I'm more willing to believe that this season is the fluke, not the previous two.

I agree with everything here EXCEPT replacing Berrios. Replacing him while finding 2 other *good* starters and getting Maeda back on track sounds like what you do in the afternoon after parting the Red Sea in the morning

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18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think that kind of free agent pitching will do much though. The guys who get 10-15M multi year deals are rarely any better than the crap shoot guys you get on a one or two year deal. I really, really dislike the Nolasco/Santana/Hughes kinds of deals. If you're going to make an impact with free agent pitching, you have to go big. And if the Twins aren't willing to go big with Berrios, they'd just be being spiteful to go big for a similar pitcher.

But overall, I really don't like free agent pitchers. They have to figure out how to develop them, or trade for them. The Maeda and Odorizzi deals were perhaps the best moves this front office have made. They should be making similar moves regularly. 

Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke are all aging aces who aren't going to get long contracts. There are some quality guys who are probably going to go sub $20MM like Stroman and Gausman plus some other interesting guys out there, too. If the Twins want to supplement their rotation, the free agent market is going to be nuts for both starting pitching and shortstop.

Meant to note Kershaw (who is going nowhere) and Bauer (who may or may not be an option for anybody).

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8 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

I agree with everything here EXCEPT replacing Berrios. Replacing him while finding 2 other *good* starters and getting Maeda back on track sounds like what you do in the afternoon after parting the Red Sea in the morning

Great line! Really, very well written.

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1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Pohlad said they weren't rebuilding. I think there's a significant distinction between rebuilding and trading away the players who won't be here next year anyway. It would be foolish to get nothing for players that won't help next year if someone is offering something for them.

I agree with your post, but not with Pohlad. He  can use whatever name he wants for next season, but trust that any use of any word will be solely based on season tickets sales perception, not reality. 
 

 

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24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke are all aging aces who aren't going to get long contracts. There are some quality guys who are probably going to go sub $20MM like Stroman and Gausman plus some other interesting guys out there, too. If the Twins want to supplement their rotation, the free agent market is going to be nuts for both starting pitching and shortstop.

Meant to note Kershaw (who is going nowhere) and Bauer (who may or may not be an option for anybody).

I'd be up for Verlander, Scherzer or Greinke, though all of them seem like pick-your-destination kind of guys at this point in their career.

Assuming 4ish year deals, the Stroman and Gausman types are the contracts I want nothing to do with. 

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6 minutes ago, Platoon said:

I agree with your post, but not with Pohlad. He  can use whatever name he wants for next season, but trust that any use of any word will be solely based on season tickets sales perception, not reality. 
 

 

I doubt there will be any extra seats sold just because Pohlad says they are not rebuilding.

Attendance early in the year will largely be based on what the Twins do in the offseason. Attendance the rest of the year will be based on what the team does on the field. 

Jim Pohald isn't so naïve to think people will actually put more stock into what he says than what the team actually does. 

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1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke are all aging aces who aren't going to get long contracts. There are some quality guys who are probably going to go sub $20MM like Stroman and Gausman plus some other interesting guys out there, too. If the Twins want to supplement their rotation, the free agent market is going to be nuts for both starting pitching and shortstop.

Meant to note Kershaw (who is going nowhere) and Bauer (who may or may not be an option for anybody).

Strom and Gausman ARE Berríos. Look at their stats. Solid #3 starters. I think Berríos wants $25M+ per year.  No way. 

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There has been enough posts on this site about bats not backing-up pitchers better games so if they dump what is left of the Bomba squad and replace them with crap-shoot rookies, this team, EVEN, with improved pitching, will stink worse next year than this.

They should try like hell to get Nelson back, and hope and pray that Rooker was not just Cave type flash in the pan.

Of course they could trade Larnach to Detroit for Grossman and then trade Arraez, whose fielding is not even average quality for Schoop whose numbers this year show how stupid Minnesota was for dropping him in favor of Arraez.

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I'd love to see what kind of lineup we would have with a healthy Buxton and a productive Donaldson. Never really got to see much of that this year (to date) I wouldn't be so quick to jettison Donaldson after only one year, when everyone did not live up to expectations. I'd trade Sano first....except who would ever take him? Simmons should definitely be gone. He has added virtually nothing that can't be replaced internally.  Colome was a bust. Taylor could yield something worthwhile. If you offoad Berrios, you eliminate one fairly realiable arm in the rotation. Would they get at least equal value at less cost? Tricky. (but I think he wants to  leave anyway, so that point could be moot. Pineda ---love to be able to keep him and just consider 2021 as an off year, Not a trend downward. But he probably will be dealt.

Kepler is also a tough one. Just when we all are finally ready to cast him adrift, he turns into 'Kepler' again. The guy could be so valuable...if he would only be consistent. Rooker is getting a second chance because of all the injuries. Looking forward to seeing if he can do it. Larnach has sort of topped out and hasn't been very good in July. Refsnyder is a journeyman who could fill Cave's place as a utility player. Cave gives us practically nothing.

Finally, please send Alcala down, anywhere, if it hasn't happened yet. You can't stay on a major league roster with a consistent ERA of over 10.00.

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1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think that kind of free agent pitching will do much though. The guys who get 10-15M multi year deals are rarely any better than the crap shoot guys you get on a one or two year deal. I really, really dislike the Nolasco/Santana/Hughes kinds of deals. If you're going to make an impact with free agent pitching, you have to go big. And if the Twins aren't willing to go big with Berrios, they'd just be being spiteful to go big for a similar pitcher.

But overall, I really don't like free agent pitchers. They have to figure out how to develop them, or trade for them. The Maeda and Odorizzi deals were perhaps the best moves this front office have made. They should be making similar moves regularly. 

Brock can speak for himself but that's not how I see the freeing of salary.  It does not mean that exact amount of salary being repurposed.  It could mean spending $25M instead of $12M on a given SP.

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5 minutes ago, RpR said:

Of course they could trade Larnach to Detroit for Grossman and then trade Arraez, whose fielding is not even average quality for Schoop whose numbers this year show how stupid Minnesota was for dropping him in favor of Arraez.

First, Schoop left two seasons ago and has signed two contracts since that point. The Twins didn't "drop" him, he signed somewhere else.

Second, Schoop has been worth 2.2 rWAR this season. Arraez has been worth 2.1 rWAR in about 70% of the plate appearances.

We have a slew of things to complain about with this front office. That ain't one of them.

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11 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Did anybody ask him to define "firesale?"

fire sale

/ˈfī(ə)r ˌsāl/

noun

a sale of goods remaining after the destruction of commercial premises by fire.

a sale of goods or assets at a very low price, typically when the seller is facing bankruptcy.

No fire and no bankruptcy -- no fire sale here! :)

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12 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

Strom and Gausman ARE Berríos. Look at their stats. Solid #3 starters. I think Berríos wants $25M+ per year.  No way. 

Gausman has had one year of productive baseball, prior to that he's been extremely inconsistent. 

Stroman is a sinkerballer who has never missed bats, that's the opposite of what the Twins need. Also, like Guasman, he's hardly been consistently useful.

These are the kinds of guys people who people end up looking the other way with their short track records of success then they come back to haunt you. Berrios has been about as stable as a pitcher can be. He's durable he misses bats and you know what you're getting with him.

Don't misunderstand, it's possible Gausman or Stroman will be good, but it's just as likely we'd regret the deal in short order. Go big or go for the upside low commitment lotto ticket types. Either way, the best moves in my opinion are to develop your own or trade for controllable upside arms.

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15 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Brock can speak for himself but that's not how I see the freeing of salary.  It does not mean that exact amount of salary being repurposed.  It could mean spending $25M instead of $12M on a given SP.

Which is fine with me. My point was that if they won't pay Berrios $20M, seems odd that they'd pay another pitcher that amount.

And as mentioned, there are some unique cases next year; Verlander, Greinke and Scherzer might take a high AAV/short-term deal. But I can already see the firestorm around here when there starts to be rumors that those vets have preferred destinations already in mind. The only other guy who'll command big money next year is Kershaw, and well, it seems dumb just mentioning that name.

Though to be fair, if they instead use that money for one of the top end SS, I'd probably get behind that.

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