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Would You Do This Trade? José Berríos to the Mets for …


The Minnesota Twins are believed to have set a very high asking price for José Berríos. Though they seem inclined to keep him around, that doesn’t mean they’re not listening to offers. But is there a way to trade Berríos without completely gutting the 2022 rotation?

Danny Abriano of SNY wrote an article yesterday on Berríos as a potential fit for the Mets. In it, he makes a lot of great points on how valuable José could be to that club and how the Mets are a team particularly well-suited to meet the Twins’ high asking price.

The Mets are currently in first place in the NL East, but hold just a 2.5-game advantage over the Phillies, who are just a game up on Atlanta and 2.5 games up on Washington. It’s a tight race. New York was expecting to have plenty of pitching by now, but Carlos Carrasco and Noah Snydergaard have both experienced setbacks in their attempts to rehab from injuries.

It doesn’t seem like either of those two are in the Mets’ long-term plans, either. Syndergaard is a free agent at the end of this year and Carrasco has a $14 million option with a $3 million buyout. That’s especially notable because Marcus Stroman is also a free agent after this season, leaving the Mets with some uncertainty in their 2022 rotation plans.

That’s why Berríos seems like such a nice fit for them over someone like Jon Gray of the Rockies, who would just be a rental.

So what’s in it for the Twins?

Abriano suggests the package would need to be similar to what the Mets gave up for Marcus Stroman — Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson. He packages Tylor Megill and Robert Dominguez as a similar duo but thinks it would take something more like Megill and J.T. Ginn. Maybe even more than that.

If you’re looking for prospects dripping with upside, this isn’t the kind of deal that’s going to get you going. The inclusion of Megill does make this very intriguing for anyone who’s not willing to sacrifice 2022. He’s already contributing to the Mets. Well, that’s actually underselling it.

Like a lot of teams in 2021, the Mets have been decimated by injuries. That’s created an opening for Megill and he’s ran with it. He started this season dominating in Double A, moved up for three starts in Triple A and has been brilliant in five starts for the Mets.

Megil, a 6-foot-7 right-hander, has pitched to a 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and has averaged 10.5 K/9 in 24 innings pitched. His fastball averages 94.6 mph and he pairs that with a slider and a changeup. He’s been sort of like a savior to their rotation, so why would the Mets trade him?

Uncertainty. Megill is very much a pop-up prospect. He was drafted in the eighth round back in 2018 and came into this year ranked 21st in the Mets system according to MLB Pipeline and 25th by FanGraphs. Is this breakout for real, or will Megill, who turns 26 soon, prove to be a flash in the pan?

As for Ginn, he was the high-rated prospect entering this year (sixth in the Mets’ system by MLB Pipeline and seventh by FanGraphs), but is still not cracking top-100 lists. Drafted out of Mississippi State in the second round in 2020, Ginn has a 2.56 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 as a 22-year-old in Low A. This is his first year back after recovering from Tommy John, so it’s quite possible the best is yet to come.

For me, just Megill and Ginn would not be enough. It’s an intriguing starting point, though. Getting a pitcher you can plug right into the MLB rotation and a prospect who grades out similarly to someone like Matt Canterino gets you listening.

If you’d prefer a higher-upside package, Twins Daily’s Matthew Taylor put together a package of shortstop Ronny Mauricio and right-handed pitcher Matt Allan, both consensus top-100 prospects. There were two other Berríos trade hypotheticals offered up in that article, which you can check out here.

If you’re looking to build a package of your own, Twins Daily’s Thiéres Rabelo recently took a look at the fit between the Mets and Twins in a trade deadline piece that would be a great place to start.

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Thanks for putting this together!

I've mentioned Robert Dominguez as a guy from the Mets that I would want in any deal with them. The size and stuff that he has combined with being 19 years old makes for a great developmental guy to target. Might rise quick too if he's gotten his control down since he last pitched. 

If were talking with the Mets about Berrios, I'm starting any package with Kumar Rocker. He'd be a PTBNL in the winter, as they can't trade a player after the draft that soon.

But if you can go to the Mets and pry Kumar Rocker packaged with a Matt Allan or Robert Dominguez for Jose Berrios, you gotta make that deal ASAP.

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Ronny Mauricio (20 year old that seems to be ranked on athleticism, his minor league numbers don't scream future major league player, low power and low OBP) and Matt Allan (20 year old kid with 10 minor league innings) do nothing for me, both seem to be years away from contributing the major league team.

Tylor Megill seems like a Twins type pitcher high pitch counts mid amount of innings, Robert Dominguez is 19 and has 5 minor league innings, so an absolute lottery ticket. If the Twins played on plugging Megill right into the rotation, they would need a plan to replace him if he doesn't live up to expectations, but giving him a start every 5th day the rest of the year should help in evaluating him.

I guess I would be a no on these trades, Megill, one of the young guys and Vientos, would be more to my liking.

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14 minutes ago, Tim said:

But if you can go to the Mets and pry Kumar Rocker packaged with a Matt Allan or Robert Dominguez for Jose Berrios, you gotta make that deal ASAP.

I like the thought of bringing Rocker into the fold as well as Allen, but my gut tells me that they'd also have to ask for someone like Megill as well.  The Mets have shown the willingness to pull the trigger on a deal like that, so who knows... I say let's roll the bones.

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No way. For a couple reasons.

I simply think Berrios is worth much more than that. I don't think that is even close to fair trade value for him. I think he provides much more value to the Twins even if he pitches next year and walks in free agency.

Secondly, and this is related to the first point, if I looked at the roster correctly for next year, then the Twins currently have 3 SP on salary for 2022. Two of those starters are Berrios and Dobnak. Dobnak has been terrible and obviously Berrios is gone if he's traded. That leaves Kenta Maeda, meaning the Twins almost literally don't have a starting rotation in 2022 if Berrios is traded. That's also leaving guys like Ober, Jax, and Barnes out, but I don't necessarily have the three of them as locks into the rotation. It seems to me in that scenario, if Berrios is traded, then we might as well trade just about everyone else.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Tibs said:

It seems to me in that scenario, if Berrios is traded, then we might as well trade just about everyone else.

No doubt. The dominoes are stacked, and Berrios is the first one. If he goes, then the other dominoes will fall too.  

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28 minutes ago, Tibs said:

No way. For a couple reasons.

I simply think Berrios is worth much more than that. I don't think that is even close to fair trade value for him. I think he provides much more value to the Twins even if he pitches next year and walks in free agency.

Secondly, and this is related to the first point, if I looked at the roster correctly for next year, then the Twins currently have 3 SP on salary for 2022. Two of those starters are Berrios and Dobnak. Dobnak has been terrible and obviously Berrios is gone if he's traded. That leaves Kenta Maeda, meaning the Twins almost literally don't have a starting rotation in 2022 if Berrios is traded. That's also leaving guys like Ober, Jax, and Barnes out, but I don't necessarily have the three of them as locks into the rotation. It seems to me in that scenario, if Berrios is traded, then we might as well trade just about everyone else.

That's kind of the whole situation in a nutshell, right? Right now you're saying they only have 2 guys worthy of the rotation for next year and need to fill 3 other spots. The question becomes "do you think you can fill 3 rotation spots well enough to compete next year?" If you can't do that then is it really that big of a deal if you have to fill 4 spots instead of 3 when you can turn Berrios into future assets since you won't be contending before he leaves anyways? That's what the FO has to figure out. Hopefully they don't screw it up.

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34 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

No doubt. The dominoes are stacked, and Berrios is the first one. If he goes, then the other dominoes will fall too.  

IMO that is why I don't see them trading Berrios, it admits that the FO decisions have been failures, the trade to get Maeda, signing Donaldson, not doing more to improve the team at the deadline the last 3 division championships, it was my understanding the lack of moves at the deadlines were so they sustain success going forward, not have a down year and trash that plan and go back to selling the fans on hope two, three or four years down the line.

If that plan was to rebuild in 2022, in 2019 they could have traded Lewis, Graterol, Javier, Rooker, Gordon, Thorpe, Enlow, Gonsalves, Baddoo, Urbina, Cavaco, Jax and Blakenhorn (which is like half of their top 25 prospects for 2019) for two of the following 3 Marcus Stroman, Zack Greinke, Zac Gallen,

And been in no worse off then they are right now. I get Lewis would have felt like it hurt, but basically getting little to nothing out of him for the next 3 to 4 years, that pain would have went away.

Remember when people on here were talking about how the bad the Chapman for Torres trade was for the cubs, even though the cubs won the world series? It probably hurt pretty bad when Torres was on fire in 18 and 19, but that sting probably has wore off quite a bit the last few years.

 

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I just can't see the Mets doing that deal.  Too much risk as Megill hasn't even pitched 100 innings in a season yet to date,  The sample size is so small you can't really tell what he is or isn't.  Risky for the Twins to because is this Vance Worley all over again or another front line pitcher?  Too hard to tell.  

If I am the Mets I try and sell the Twins on the high upside of Matt Alan and Kumar Rocker and throw in a position player to boot.  Giving away more of their future for the present would be better for them since they need as much present value as they can get right now.

I can see the attraction they have for Berrios though.  A 27 year old pitcher with nasty stuff who paired with Degrom, Stroman and Walker and for the moment Megill would be a tough rotation to beat in the playoffs.  It might be worth betting the farm for them hard to say.    They have to give up a lot of future value though to get the Twins interested.

I think I like other systems better especially the Blue Jays so I think the Mets are going to have a hard time getting the Twins to deal which I suppose is why Megill is the out of the box idea to get it done.  Like I said if I were the Mets and really wanted Berrios I would overpay with prospects that are further away as they have a team that looks ready to do some damage right now.

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On baseball trade values I just threw in your guys you stated on here and a few others and it’s still miles apart. Could you hope you catch lightning in a bottle with this group? Sure! But unless you put Rocker in there as a ptbnl there’s really no one in their system that says it’s a no brainer. Unless magically we get Syndergaard already signed to a super team friendly deal included in there. I’m not keen on trading with the Mets unless they literally offer the whole system dang near haha12B81C74-681A-442F-BDED-AACDA1F90E11.jpeg.7249e99058aa2e45b2c3d3a65bd0bc5b.jpeg

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I would not touch this deal. If I'm sending Berrios anywhere other than Toronto (I really want Pearson and SWR), then I'm offering him with Kepler to the Padres, telling them we'll take Myers, and asking them to fill in the rest of the trade with at least one of Abrams and Gore and a handful of lottery picks.

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I don't see the Mets giving Megill up as part of a Berrios trade. I'm not seeing any red flags in Megill's performance, he's team controlled for years and years and right now his results are arguably already on par with Berrios. Megill was drafted out of college and rose through the ranks fast as this is only his 2nd full season in their system and he's already pitching well at the MLB level.

If the Twins are being reasonable, the pre-arb type of pitcher you get in return for Berrios is more like a David Peterson along with Mauricio and Allen.

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1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO that is why I don't see them trading Berrios, it admits that the FO decisions have been failures, the trade to get Maeda, signing Donaldson, not doing more to improve the team at the deadline the last 3 division championships, it was my understanding the lack of moves at the deadlines were so they sustain success going forward, not have a down year and trash that plan and go back to selling the fans on hope two, three or four years down the line.

If that plan was to rebuild in 2022, in 2019 they could have traded Lewis, Graterol, Javier, Rooker, Gordon, Thorpe, Enlow, Gonsalves, Baddoo, Urbina, Cavaco, Jax and Blakenhorn (which is like half of their top 25 prospects for 2019) for two of the following 3 Marcus Stroman, Zack Greinke, Zac Gallen,

And been in no worse off then they are right now. I get Lewis would have felt like it hurt, but basically getting little to nothing out of him for the next 3 to 4 years, that pain would have went away.

Remember when people on here were talking about how the bad the Chapman for Torres trade was for the cubs, even though the cubs won the world series? It probably hurt pretty bad when Torres was on fire in 18 and 19, but that sting probably has wore off quite a bit the last few years.

 

The large issues the Twins have had this year begin and end with the disastrous injuries (Buxton, Garver, Pineda, and to a degree, Dobnak), and the complete failure of 2020's pitching free agents (Happ, Shoemaker, Colome).  No reasonable baseball person would have forecast any of those 3 being sub-replacement level this year (perhaps at replacement level), and certainly not all 3. 

Trading for Maeda was a good decision at the time (getting an undervalued starter with 4 years of control on a team-friendly deal for a reliever is a no-brainer), and has been a steal since (Graterol looked good last year, if you ignore the 5 k/9, but this year has spent more time in AAA than MLB, and pitched to a 6.48 ERA).  Donaldson has also not been the problem.  Since signing with the Twins, amongst 3B with 300+ PA's, he's 5th in OPS, 5th in wRC+, 5th in wOBA, 4th in HR/PA, 7th in Hard Hit Rate, and 2nd in bb rate.  He's compiled 2.6 WAR in 103 games, which is a 4 WAR player across a full season.

It's peculiar to me that your go-to examples of bad FO decisions are, other than the Nelson Cruz signing, probably the two best decisions the FO have made to date, and are two moves that they would undoubtedly make again if given the chance,  I also have no idea why you think Lewis is somehow 3-4 years away--if not for the injury, he would probably be on this team now.  I see no reason that he won't debut next year, and probably be a starter by 2023 at the latest.

Sure, trades look bad when the prospect in return fizzles.  But what if they don't?  Do you think maybe the White Sox regret trading Fernando Tatis Jr for James Shields?  Do you think maybe the Padres would like to have Trea Turner back, instead of Wil Myers?

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3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't see the Mets giving Megill up as part of a Berrios trade. I'm not seeing any red flags in Megill's performance, he's team controlled for years and years and right now his results are arguably already on par with Berrios. Megill was drafted out of college and rose through the ranks fast as this is only his 2nd full season in their system and he's already pitching well at the MLB level.

If the Twins are being reasonable, the pre-arb type of pitcher you get in return for Berrios is more like a David Peterson along with Mauricio and Allen.

89.1% LOB rate (league average is 72%) doesn't stick out? That's better than all but one pitcher in the league this year.  How about his 12.9% line drive rate (league average is 20.9%), despite having similar soft/medium/hard contact numbers to league average?  Maybe his 58.2% FB rate (league average is 50.9%) is of concern, since he's sitting under 95 MPH?

None of that means he's going to fall off a cliff of course, but I would be wary of buying on a SSS of good performance, especially based on that LOB Rate.

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I just don’t see a trade scenario where the Twins get true immediate value for next year. Out of all the teams that could conceivably be in on Berrios the Mets are probably at the bottom. It’s nice to have them in the bidding war but really you’re hoping the Jays, dodgers and Padres get into a bidding war for him. That’s the ideal scenario I think

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I don't think the Mets have enough.  The Padres on the other hand DO.  And now 5 games back, the pressure is building to do something that will get them over the hump...NOW.  Baseball Trade Values would "validate" THIS Trade:

Padres get:  Berrios  40.8  and Ober  2.8 = 43.40 Total Value.

Twins get:   Weathers LHP  19.4   Mackenzie Gore  LHP  17.5   Clevinger  RHP  6.5  = 43.60 Total Value.

Padres get a tremendous boost to their starting rotation and an additional year of Berrios, and a young pitcher (Ober) who is already up throwing Big League innings.

Twins get a young LH-SP in Weathers with potential who is currently on the IL.  Gore who can't seem to find the strike zone the last couple years (the pressure would be on the twins to "Fix Him) and Clevinger a RH-SP who is out for the season and an injury risk.  If things break the Twins way, they are well on their way to a good starting rotation.  If Gore can't throw strikes and Clevinger keeps getting hurt it's a disaster.  (you could also possibly switch Blake Snell 4.4 with Clevinger to weight it a little more toward the Padres.  Snell can't seem to find the plate consistently or last more than 5 innings but the Padres would get a very dependable starter for their #2 or #3 behind Darvish.    

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7 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

89.1% LOB rate (league average is 72%) doesn't stick out? That's better than all but one pitcher in the league this year.  How about his 12.9% line drive rate (league average is 20.9%), despite having similar soft/medium/hard contact numbers to league average?  Maybe his 58.2% FB rate (league average is 50.9%) is of concern, since he's sitting under 95 MPH?

None of that means he's going to fall off a cliff of course, but I would be wary of buying on a SSS of good performance, especially based on that LOB Rate.

His FIP is 3.72 which takes into consideration to the obvious LOB luck fueled 2.63 ERA and is almost as good as Berrios, albeit in a small sample size at the MLB level. Fangraphs shows a 38.7% FB rate, not a 58.2% rate you're quoting, and Megill is generating a lot of ground balls, which is nice to see. I hadn't looked into his exit velocity allowed, but I went ahead and did that now, too. Megill is 24th out of 461 in average exit velocity for pitchers with more than 50 batted ball events this year at 89.5mph. This low exit velocity and low barrel rate along with the high ground ball rate could help explain the lack of line drives allowed. That said, I did notice that even though Megill hasn't been allowing hitters to barrel up the ball well against him, he has a hard hit percentage is higher than average so I guess you could look at the hard hit percentage standalone and call that a red flag.

I agree 94.6mph is below 95.0mph on his average fastball, though it feels a little disingenuous to be so concerned over 0.4mph.

Megill is throwing strikes, not giving up a ton of hits and striking guys out. His success at the MLB level has followed solid production from the minors with no real hiccups and a fast promotion rate. Signs point to Megill potentially being better than Jose Berrios and the Mets have him under control for 6 years.

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1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

I just don’t see a trade scenario where the Twins get true immediate value for next year. Out of all the teams that could conceivably be in on Berrios the Mets are probably at the bottom. It’s nice to have them in the bidding war but really you’re hoping the Jays, dodgers and Padres get into a bidding war for him. That’s the ideal scenario I think

I also want the Twins to get true immediate value in 2022 if they trade Berrios. The further down in the system a player is (even a highly ranked one), the less likely they are to become a major league asset. The Twins may still have a window to compete in 2022, I don't think they should wave the white flag on next year just yet.

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3 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

On baseball trade values I just threw in your guys you stated on here and a few others and it’s still miles apart. Could you hope you catch lightning in a bottle with this group? Sure! But unless you put Rocker in there as a ptbnl there’s really no one in their system that says it’s a no brainer. Unless magically we get Syndergaard already signed to a super team friendly deal included in there. I’m not keen on trading with the Mets unless they literally offer the whole system dang near haha12B81C74-681A-442F-BDED-AACDA1F90E11.jpeg.7249e99058aa2e45b2c3d3a65bd0bc5b.jpeg

That site is fun but it's not very accurate, especially for prospects. They have Gilberto Celestino valued at 8.2 and Jose Miranda at 1.6. 

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31 minutes ago, Tom Froemming said:

That site is fun but it's not very accurate, especially for prospects. They have Gilberto Celestino valued at 8.2 and Jose Miranda at 1.6. 

True, but are we really getting excited over an Allen, Dominguez, Megill trade for Berrios? I’m not. I’d take Berrios in ‘22 and let him walk for the comp pick in that scenario.

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I really don’t think this team is gonna contend next year either. Not either the way we can’t get in their prime free agents to come here so trade high on berrios which at his best has ever been a number 2 at best.. trade Donaldson if u can just for salary relief and let’s get our minors healthy and shoot for 2023 

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2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The large issues the Twins have had this year begin and end with the disastrous injuries (Buxton, Garver, Pineda, and to a degree, Dobnak), and the complete failure of 2020's pitching free agents (Happ, Shoemaker, Colome).  No reasonable baseball person would have forecast any of those 3 being sub-replacement level this year (perhaps at replacement level), and certainly not all 3. 

Trading for Maeda was a good decision at the time (getting an undervalued starter with 4 years of control on a team-friendly deal for a reliever is a no-brainer), and has been a steal since (Graterol looked good last year, if you ignore the 5 k/9, but this year has spent more time in AAA than MLB, and pitched to a 6.48 ERA).  Donaldson has also not been the problem.  Since signing with the Twins, amongst 3B with 300+ PA's, he's 5th in OPS, 5th in wRC+, 5th in wOBA, 4th in HR/PA, 7th in Hard Hit Rate, and 2nd in bb rate.  He's compiled 2.6 WAR in 103 games, which is a 4 WAR player across a full season.

It's peculiar to me that your go-to examples of bad FO decisions are, other than the Nelson Cruz signing, probably the two best decisions the FO have made to date, and are two moves that they would undoubtedly make again if given the chance,  I also have no idea why you think Lewis is somehow 3-4 years away--if not for the injury, he would probably be on this team now.  I see no reason that he won't debut next year, and probably be a starter by 2023 at the latest.

Sure, trades look bad when the prospect in return fizzles.  But what if they don't?  Do you think maybe the White Sox regret trading Fernando Tatis Jr for James Shields?  Do you think maybe the Padres would like to have Trea Turner back, instead of Wil Myers?

I think the 3-4 years on Lewis that he was referring to are 2019-2021 and maybe 2022.

But your first paragraph in particular is spot on. The only way they could have anticipated getting replacement or sub-replacement from those three are injuries, and unfortunately, that’s not where the injuries happened. Your summary is why I don’t see them over-reacting to this year.

 

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13 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

True, but are we really getting excited over an Allen, Dominguez, Megill trade for Berrios? I’m not. I’d take Berrios in ‘22 and let him walk for the comp pick in that scenario.

Are you sure the comp pick will survive the new CBA?

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The pain is that any team trading for Berrios might only be looking at him as a rental, too. Berrios seems intent on going for the biggest bucks possible following his 2022 season. What that means, though, is that anyone having him on the roster NEXT season should expect super numbers. But if you are trading for the guy now, in July 2021, you really can't negotiate with him or his agent unless you make the trade. Am I right on this? Unless you are totally going to blow him away with an offer the day after the trade (like $150m for five years, option to get out in Year 3, etc. etc.)

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8 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

The pain is that any team trading for Berrios might only be looking at him as a rental, too.

This line of reasoning completely overlooks the value he brings while he is on someone's roster.  That value for 2021 is low for the Twins and and any other team out of contention, but for a team trying to make the post-season there is value he can deliver in the coming couple of months, and then for the post-season there are additional teams with stronger credentials who will also find him of use when trying to win one short series after another. And then, for a contending team, the logic starts all over again in 2022.

Two bites at the apple before he departs. You think that doesn't have value to a select group of teams?

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1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

...The only way they could have anticipated getting replacement or sub-replacement from those three are injuries...

In general, I look at each acquisition assuming they could take a step down and decline. A guy with a 4.00 ERA can easily become a guy with a 5.00 ERA for a year. Especially as they age into their mid/late 30s. It's one the reasons I almost always advocate for getting top free agents. If they take a step back, they're still valuable. If you go bargain shopping and they take a step back, you don't really even want to play them and the money is totally wasted because other teams don't want them.

I view Shoemaker as a dumpster dive. He hadn't been a solid starter for the previous 4 years (2017-2020). Happ was also a bargain signing with plenty of warning signs.

Colombe has a 2.70 ERA and 2.58 FIP over his past 10 appearances. Even since May 1, Colombe has a 3.33 ERA, though his FIP is 4.16. Relief pitchers can get hit pretty hard by a few bad outings.

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