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MLBTR: Twins setting sky-high price on Berríos


10 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

He’s gone less than 6 innings in over 1/3 of his starts (7 out of 19). He’s gone 6.0 or 6.1 in another 7 starts. So saying he mostly goes 5-6 innings was a fair assessment. 

All of this seems normal for as long as I have been a baseball fan.

A good start gobbles up 6 innings, give our take a few outs.
Whatever reliever(s) gives the best edge gobble up ~1 inning.
The set-up guy gobbles up 1 inning.
The closer finishes the game.

This is the breakdown of the perfectly executed baseball game.

Fans seem to expect hall of fame production out of #1 pitchers.  That's not a fair assessment, and heck, it's just a way to be constantly disappointed.

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23 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I guess my first question is.....how many contending teams are even in a position to meet that price?

I'm all for setting a high bar for a trade, I just wonder if they narrowed their own market.

This

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It looks like Berrios is set on going through the free agency process.  He wants the absolute max he can get as do the majority of people in or outside of baseball.  We surely can't criticize his desire to maximize his earnings.  It would appear the only way the twins could extend him would be a offer so wild that Berrios and his agent thought no other team would match.  If this seems like a reasonable take ... Why not take the prospects now and make the top offer in 2023?  If it's to contend in 2022.  Let's be realistic.  Those odds are very low.  

Even with Berrios we would need 3 starters in 2022 and one needs to be better than Berrios.  Our BP needs a total overhaul. Our best hitter (Cruz) is not only 41 years old, he is a free agent.  Our other established star (Donaldson) is going to be 36 and he is frequently hurt and declining.  Our potential biggest star (Buxton) has never stayed healthy.  Sano is lost and there is no way his contract can be moved.  We have a couple guys (Kirilloff/Larnach) who show some promise but Larnach is getting schooled right now and Kirilloff is not exactly lighting it up.  They probably will both be good but I would not bet on them carrying the load in 2022.  Other than that, we are in great shape for 2022!

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Mark Feinsand quotes a GM that the Twins asking price makes it doubtful Berrios will be traded.

Quote

“Teams with a guy like Berríos, where they think they can compete next year, may view it as they can get better Major League talent for the guy in the offseason,” an NL GM said. “If the Twins don’t change their asking price, nobody is going to pay what they want for Berríos. I’ll be shocked if he gets moved.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-executives-expectations-for-the-2021-trade-deadline

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17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd rather have Berrios for another year and take the comp pick than settling for an underwhelming Marcus Stroman like deal.

Looks like Toronto is getting a number three or four pitcher out of it, and another pitching prospect. I'd take that 100 percent of the time.

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Honestly based on the press leaks over the past few weeks it feels like the following is taking place. Apologies for not tracking down sources for all of these but appears most have likely read them. 
 

1. Twins are trying to extend Byron Buxton. 
2. Twins decision on Berrios may somewhat depend on Buxton? Berrios’s most recent statement didn’t sound like an offer had been made recently? Pohlad stated that there is plenty of budget for both. 
3. The Twins seem to be trying to move Josh Donaldson but sounds like are willing to eat contract/seeking prospect capital. Is he a problem in the clubhouse or just doesn’t fit their revised anticipated window?
4. They seem to be actively shopping all expiring contracts. 
 

I can’t help but wonder if the FO’s feeling and approach to all of this is that if they have accepted that Berrios is going to free agency no matter what and cannot be counted on/should assume will be gone beyond 2022. If Buxton rejects the extension offer this team will likely not be competitive in 2023 and 2022 is even a stretch with Berrios and Buxton still aboard. Could Buxton rejecting an extension set off a fairly major fire sale including all of the expiring players, Buxton, Berrios, Donaldson, Maeda, Rogers, Kepler, etc? 

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8 minutes ago, twinkiesfan11 said:

Could Buxton rejecting an extension set off a fairly major fire sale including all of the expiring players, Buxton, Berrios, Donaldson, Maeda, Rogers, Kepler, etc? 

I've wondered about this a few times and I think it's a good question to ask. My answer is... maybe? I'd probably firesale those two players but may wait until the offseason to do it. Moving all those players in a single deadline will be quite a challenge, particularly given the state of Buxton's health.

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A fire sale is a sale of assets at a very low price. It shouldn’t be be a fire sale of 2022 assets. I don’t think it will be.

You do actively engage in discussions for those players and take an offer from anyone desperate to overpay in order to be all in in 2021.

Donaldson might be the only 22 asset where you accept a fair offer assuming you will allocate those resources towards a pitcher.

It often is a fire sale for expiring contracts particularly those with little demand.

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1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Looks like Toronto is getting a number three or four pitcher out of it, and another pitching prospect. I'd take that 100 percent of the time.

Which one is the #3 or #4 pitcher, Kay? He's been brutal, can't seem to stick in the rotation and was never much of a prospect to begin with.

I wouldn't trade Berrios for guys with back of the rotation ceilings.

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1 hour ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Assuming compensatory picks are still relevant/valuable after the next CBA.

There will have to be some kind of compensation to help the "small market" teams cope unless the "big markets" agree to greater revenue sharing.

In which case, it shouldn't be an issue meeting Berrios asking price.

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14 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Which one is the #3 or #4 pitcher, Kay? He's been brutal, can't seem to stick in the rotation and was never much of a prospect to begin with.

I wouldn't trade Berrios for guys with back of the rotation ceilings.

My mistake. I thought Pearson was in that deal......

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2 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Assuming compensatory picks are still relevant/valuable after the next CBA.

 

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've wondered about this a few times and I think it's a good question to ask. My answer is... maybe? I'd probably firesale those two players but may wait until the offseason to do it. Moving all those players in a single deadline will be quite a challenge, particularly given the state of Buxton's health.

 

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

A fire sale is a sale of assets at a very low price. It shouldn’t be be a fire sale of 2022 assets. I don’t think it will be.

You do actively engage in discussions for those players and take an offer from anyone desperate to overpay in order to be all in in 2021.

Donaldson might be the only 22 asset where you accept a fair offer assuming you will allocate those resources towards a pitcher.

It often is a fire sale for expiring contracts particularly those with little demand.

Ok - wrong term, I wonder if Buxton rejecting an extension would trigger selling off on the current veteran core and a full rebuild. Agreed with Brock also, not likely all moving at the deadline.

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