Ken Rosenthal: Twins Trying to Sign Buxton Long Term

[Dodecahedron]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

At this point, 40 games doesn't feel like a given and I don't agree he's worth that value.  Any GM inking him to a long term is taking a significant risk they just created an albatross that will be hung over their head.

Buxton could be wrapped in bubble wrap and would still probably play at replacement level. 

Anyway, without seeing what kind of contract he ends up with, it's hard to analyze.  He's risky, but he is also unique with the amount of value he brings.

The Twins will feel it when he moves on, no doubt about it.  

[davesaxton]

I would bet that it is more along a 4/70 or 5/70. fully guaranteed with at least 2 years of options plus incentives. lots and lots of incentives. Bux could get $15M+ on the open market for 100 games a year easily,  

[lukeduke1980]

The Players Union isn't crazy about incentive laden deals.  Tony Clark will advise Buxton to bet on himself.

[roger]

Unbelievable how this thread reads.  Yes, there is a quote from Rosenthal that mentions $70M.  By mid-thread, many were talking about a 7 year deal for $70M +.  No where has it been stated as 7 years except here, we just don't know.    

The good news, at least for me, is that they are talking and trying to work something out over the coming week or two.  Extending him would be fantastic news, for whatever years.

[Irishman]

If Twins trade Buxton, then I am done.  

[TwinsDr2021]

25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't see any team giving Buxton more than 3 years in the open market on a guaranteed high AAV contract. At the end of 2021, it will have been 5 years since Buxton hadn't missed an massive amount of time on the field due to injury or generated more than 3 WAR in a season.

I can't see the Twins offering less than 3-4 years in total right now (2-3yr extension), and at $70MM, that's more than fair. If the speculation is accurate and the Twins are offering 7/70MM, I also can't see Buxton taking it because the potential for him to earn dramatically more on a short term deal and a new contract afterwards is realistic. 

The timing of this statement makes no sense to me. Are the Twins attempting to drum up some calls on Buxton across the league? If they're not already getting calls, that probably says a lot about other teams' interest level in him. Also, a statement like this is likely to agitate Buxton which reduces Twins negotiating leverage with other teams and Buxton both now and in the offseason. I just see this as a lose-lose. It would be a better strategy to leak another team is courting the Twins for Buxton.

Didn't the Twins give Donaldson a 4 year 92 million, after coming off of seasons he played - 155,16,36, 113

I believe there is team willing out there will to give Buxton that same contract, but that is just my opinion.

[mnfireman]

MLB's CBA expires after this season, which may be why the Twins are trying to lock Buxton up now. There could be a hard salary cap, there could be non-guaranteed contracts (like most other professional sports), there could be mass restructuring of service time, the arbitration process, revenue sharing, TV dollars, etc... The team is doing their due diligence and I am sure Buxton's agent is doing his. I hope it works out that he can stay here long term, but there is nothing I can do about it and speculating about it is a waste of time.

[mnfireman]

14 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Didn't the Twins give Donaldson a 4 year 92 million, after coming off of seasons he played - 155,16,36, 113

I believe there is team willing out there will to give Buxton that same contract, but that is just my opinion.

The 16 and 36 were the same season (2018), he was traded from Toronto to Cleveland, but yes he had two years of injury issues, 2017 & 2018, before bouncing back nicely in Atlanta.

[Number3]

It would be nice if these discussions were taking place after Buxton had actually been on the field for, say, 10 games. I know that is a lot to ask. I posted when he came off the IL the last time that I hoped he could play 50 of the remaining 85 games or so. 2 games later he sticks his left hand in front of a 90+ mph pitch after slipping and falling in the batters' box in the previous AB.. This is not injury prone. this is a walking ems training exercise.

[LA VIkes Fan]

9 minutes ago, roger said:

Unbelievable how this thread reads.  Yes, there is a quote from Rosenthal that mentions $70M.  By mid-thread, many were talking about a 7 year deal for $70M +.  No where has it been stated as 7 years except here, we just don't know.    

The good news, at least for me, is that they are talking and trying to work something out over the coming week or two.  Extending him would be fantastic news, for whatever years.

I couldn't agree more. We are all just shooting in the dark ( or pissing in the wind, choose your metaphor) until we know the contract length. 7/$70m and 4/$70m are very different offers in both money and when he becomes a FA next. Also, there's nothing in the Athletic articles that suggests he has to "take this or he's gone tomorrow".  In fact, those article suggests that if Buxton is not signed he will be traded over the winter, not at the Trade Deadline. The concept is that the Twins would want him to increase his value by playing in August and September, thus showing he can play for a significant stretch without injury, and thereby increase his value on the trade market. That sounds correct to me. Buxton should actually fetch a better return over the winter assuming he comes back and plays well then he would fetch now since he is been hurt and missed over 65% of the games so far this season.

I actually think the FA is doing exactly what they should be doing. This year is about evaluating what you have and to seeing what you will have next year and post 2022. A big part of that is seeing if you can re-sign Berrios, Buxton and Rogers. I personally think that finding out if you can re-sign any of those three, and which ones, should be a critical part of your thinking on whether this team needs a re-tooling because that window of contention remains open for the next few years or whether we should shift to a rebuilding mode because without at least two of those three we probably don't have enough talent to contact in the short term and need to focus on the long-term. A long-term focus means trade those three for high ceiling, close to MLB ready prospects. Any reasonable prospect of contending in 2022, 2023, and maybe even 2024 requires us to keep at least Berrios, and probably at least one of Buxton and Rogers, or trade them for guys that become their equivalent next year will be hereafter. Good luck with the latter. I don't like the publicity because that suggests were being set up for failure, but I do think this is the right approach combined with taking guys we think are MLB ready, close to MLB ready, or frankly the best we got for now, and seeing what they can do.

[Battle ur tail off]

This is exactly what it looks like IMO. 

A 70 million dollar offer when 100+ will be on the table for almost certain. He won't sign here, folks, so get ready for it. If he was going to sign here, you honestly wouldn't even see this article. The deal would just be done and we would hear specifics. This is basically the Twins doing damage control as more than likely IMO, Buxton has made up his mind he won't be signing here.

I also want to brace everyone for the fact that in a trade, the Twins likely won't get what most of us think he is worth. 

 

The other side of this, is that as soon as Buxton turns this down, then Berrios is 100% gone as well. In fact, it's quite possible Berrios is already gone and Buxton sees the writing on the wall as well. Do what we do around here all the time. REBUILD

 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

This is exactly what it looks like IMO. 

A 70 million dollar offer when 100+ will be on the table for almost certain. He won't sign here, folks, so get ready for it. If he was going to sign here, you honestly wouldn't even see this article. The deal would just be done and we would hear specifics. This is basically the Twins doing damage control as more than likely IMO, Buxton has made up his mind he won't be signing here.

I also want to brace everyone for the fact that in a trade, the Twins likely won't get what most of us think he is worth. 

 

The other side of this, is that as soon as Buxton turns this down, then Berrios is 100% gone as well. In fact, it's quite possible Berrios is already gone and Buxton sees the writing on the wall as well. Do what we do around here all the time. REBUILD

 

Well you're contradicting yourself a little here. If he's worth 100+ "for almost certain" then he's worth a pretty big prospect haul, too. Either he's wanted by the other teams or he isn't.

[Mike Sixel]

jaysfan9293
2:24    is there anything to read into the twins' offered buxton extension as to their plans for beyond this year?  they're not really in a great place to tear down from but I don't know whether this roster can be competitive during buxton / berrios / garver's final years of control either.  additionally if they do decide to sell what do you estimate a berrios package to look like? (aside from value, does minnesota want help immediately and would they prefer pitching prospects as I've heard around)

Jay Jaffe
2:28    Rosenthal reported that if Buxton rejects the deal, he's likely to be traded either this season or this winter. I don't know how serious they are about a full-scale teardown; on paper they have a fair bit of talent that's under club control, but some years they just sink like a stone. As for what they might get for Berrios — it's really tough to know without knowing whether they're looking to retool on the fly (in which case, an MLB-ready starter is probably part of the package) or going into a bigger teardown.
2:29    just so we're clear: i'm going to tell you all that calibrating trade packages on the fly 30 times in one chat isn't going to happen.

[Battle ur tail off]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Well you're contradicting yourself a little here. If he's worth 100+ "for almost certain" then he's worth a pretty big prospect haul, too. Either he's wanted by the other teams or he isn't.

Just watch what happens. Teams have the Twins over a barrel just like they did with Santana and they know it. 

 

There are only a few teams out there that will be willing to give Buxton the big money because of that risk he carries and it will be the same teams that wanted to rape Johan from us. 

 

[Dodecahedron]

50 minutes ago, Irishman said:

If Twins trade Buxton, then I am done.  

It's not that dire.  There are other things to live for!  Your family loves you!

[Dodecahedron]

1 minute ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Just watch what happens. Teams have the Twins over a barrel just like they did with Santana and they know it. 

 

There are only a few teams out there that will be willing to give Buxton the big money because of that risk he carries and it will be the same teams that wanted to rape Johan from us. 

 

Well sure, they just announced to the world they're done with him.  You're right, this is exactly what they did with Santana.

[davesaxton]

you can judge nothing based on the stated $70M figure that the article states. because you don't know the length. what is the difference between 1/25 or 4/100? 70M looks better or worse depending on the length. can we please stop assuming the FO is going to screw this up and just let it play out until we have more information? all that is happening now is the fan base is getting riled up based on 1/3 of the information. all we have is a figure. we don't know what Buxton's camp asked for or expects, nor do we know if this really is a final offer. everything above the 70M number is pure speculation. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

34 year old Byron Buxton doesn't matter. He'll provide nearly $70M worth of value in the next 3 seasons (ages 28-30), just like he did 2019-2021. If the Twins can spread out those payments over an even longer time period they get a discount due to the time value of money. Every team would like to pay out a 3 year deal over the next 7 years.

He's not an old player in decline - he's in his prime. He's not taking 7/$70M because someone is going to offer him 3/$70M after 2022. He might take 4/$70M as a base if the incentives are good because he's looking at less than $10M in arbitration next season.

On what do you base the 70M value the last three years?

Much of this extension talk is based on a comparison with the Aaron Hicks deal.  Well....how's that one looking?  And Aaron had nowhere near the history.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If I was guessing.... It is 4 for 70, plus incentives. 

This is what I’m thinking. A deal that pays Byron a lot but gets him back to free agency relatively young. 

[Greglw3]

5 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

In another summary of this article it was mentioned that the Twins are proposing an incentive-heavy deal for staying healthy and on the field, which significantly increased the numbers. Would be great if that worked out but I suspect Buxton knows he could get more guarantees from some gambling front office by going to FA.

I was thinking that was what they should do. A respectable base and then if he meets all incentives, he gets paid like a superstar. We do need to sign him. However, if he rejects it, I’d trade him now.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Well sure, they just announced to the world they're done with him.  You're right, this is exactly what they did with Santana.

They announced to the world they're trying to sign him and if they can't they're going to trade him. Is that earth shattering news? Is that not what dozens of us have been saying on these boards for over a month? You act like it's some big shocking news. If other teams didn't know the Twins were going to trade Buxton if they couldn't sign him I'd like to know which teams those are so I can send in a resume.

[Rosterman]

At best I see it as 5/70+ incentives, putting Buxton at age 33 for his next big contract. Of course, he could wait and have a stud year and get a 5/100+. I don't really see a middle ground. He could also fall flat on his face.

 

Same with Berrios. I'm sure the Twins would love 5/85+, but Berrios, if he has a decent year like this one is proving to be (wait, doesn't he usually tank in the second half), could easily command 4/100 by waiting a year. Again, he would be eligible for one more big contract if healthy.

 

The gauntlet has been thrown down. Take it, or move on. The way the Twins have played with so many like Cuddyer, Hunter, Escobar, Santana and more........

 

Of course, building the organization a beautiful stafium, in which the team's share is pretty much paid for, meant the team could keep their own home grown free agents, rewarding them, perhaps, a but more because of what they have contributed to the team in the past. But why pay YOUR GUYS more when you can always grab folks like Donaldson on the free agent market in the PRIME of their careers!

[Dodecahedron]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They announced to the world they're trying to sign him and if they can't they're going to trade him. Is that earth shattering news? Is that not what dozens of us have been saying on these boards for over a month? You act like it's some big shocking news. If other teams didn't know the Twins were going to trade Buxton if they couldn't sign him I'd like to know which teams those are so I can send in a resume.

You will find another thread on this very website with a poll asking who will be traded at the trade deadline.  Do you see Buxton on the list as an option?  Do you see anyone calling it out that Buxton is not listed?

Yes, it is a big surprise, to everyone, that Buxton has been given a "take it or leave it" contract proposal and the Twins expressed a desire to cash in the "leave it" clause at the earliest chance they get.  Maybe you did not read the article, where Rosenthal stated that Buxton will be traded immediately if he does not sign?

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Just watch what happens. Teams have the Twins over a barrel just like they did with Santana and they know it. 

 

There are only a few teams out there that will be willing to give Buxton the big money because of that risk he carries and it will be the same teams that wanted to rape Johan from us. 

 

Is that new information? Are there any teams out there that aren't trying to "win" the trades they make? Is it new information that the Twins are better off trading Buxton before next year if they can't extend him? This is all common knowledge that has been discussed by random people on Twinsdaily.com for months. If there are 2 teams interested in him you can use them to push the package higher and higher. So I stick with you're contradicting yourself. If there's multiple teams willing to pay him big money there's multiple teams willing to trade for him. Red Sox traded Mookie before he left for nothing and he still got paid. Same with Lindor. Those teams willing to spend big on him would love to get him in their organization before he's a free agent to sign him before he hits the market. As long as there's more than 1 team interested in him they can drive the price up. Doesn't mean it'll be something crazy or the FO won't screw it up, but your argument that suddenly teams know the Twins are open to trading Buxton and now the team is screwed makes no sense. You think the team would be saying "no, we're not trading him" and other teams would suddenly throw their top 5 prospects at them out of nowhere? 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

You will find another thread on this very website with a poll asking who will be traded at the trade deadline.  Do you see Buxton on the list as an option?  Do you see anyone calling it out that Buxton is not listed?

Yes, it is a big surprise that Buxton has been given a "take it or leave it" contract proposal and the Twins expressed a desire to cash in the "leave it" clause at the earliest chance they get.  It's a surprise to everyone.  Maybe you did not read the article, where Rosenthal stated that Buxton will be traded immediately if he does not sign?

I read the article where Rosenthal mentions trading him by the deadline or during the offseason. Is that the one you're referring to and misquoting?

[Dodecahedron]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I read the article where Rosenthal mentions trading him by the deadline or during the offseason. Is that the one you're referring to and misquoting?

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
3:17    Buxton: traded in the next 12 months, or signed to stay in MN? How about Berrios?
Keith Law
3:18    I'd guess they sign Buxton and trade Berrios. Buxton might give them some discount given how often he's been hurt. I can't see them going 5 years on Berrios, but he could get that in free agency

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

How is it bait? You blatantly misrepresented what the Rosenthal piece said. The article says they're trying to extend him, but if they can't they will trade him before the deadline or in the offseason. I personally have made at least a dozen posts on this very site saying that exact thing. For both him and Berrios. It's the logical thing to do. I think its Major League Ready who has been making many similar statements and referring to the Rays as an example (could be someone else, but I think it's them). 

[Dodecahedron]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How is it bait? You blatantly misrepresented what the Rosenthal piece said. The article says they're trying to extend him, but if they can't they will trade him before the deadline or in the offseason. I personally have made at least a dozen posts on this very site saying that exact thing. For both him and Berrios. It's the logical thing to do. I think its Major League Ready who has been making many similar statements and referring to the Rays as an example (could be someone else, but I think it's them). 

Oh, you seriously don't see that the Twins gave Buxton an ultimatum.  My mistake.

Forget about the words on the page, look at what's going on here.  The Twins gave Buxton a "final offer" and said he is gone in 2 weeks if he doesn't sign it.  Furthermore, the Twins announced this to the league.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Dodecahedron said:

Oh, you seriously don't see that the Twins gave Buxton an ultimatum, not a contract offer.  My mistake.

You can play whatever semantic games you want, but the point is the same. The Twins need to know if they can extend Buxton. If they can't they need to trade him. That is news to 0 MLB teams. 0. None. Nada. Zilch. The other teams may have hoped the Twins would be dumb enough to let him walk for nothing, but they certainly aren't surprised by the fact the Twins are going to trade him if they can't extend him. Lindor and Betts had literally the exact same situation happen the last 2 years. Literally the exact same thing. Public acknowledgment that if the player and team couldn't find an extension the team would trade the player.