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The Trade Deadline - Who Stays, Who Goes?


On the morning of July 31st...  

92 members have voted

  1. 1. ...Which of these players will NOT wear a Twins uniform?

    • Nelson Cruz
      82
    • Alex Colomé
      32
    • J.A. Happ
      33
    • Michael Pineda
      59
    • Hansel Robles
      57
    • Andrelton Simmons
      54
    • Jose Berríos
      19
    • Tyler Duffey
      12
    • Kenta Maeda
      2
    • Taylor Rogers
      28
    • Josh Donaldson
      25
    • Luis Arraez
      3
    • Jorge Polanco
      2
    • Miguel Sanó
      14
    • Max Kepler
      13


51 minutes ago, Dman said:

Totally agree with this.  Prospects can look great but if they cannot conquer MLB then they can't help.  Even now Steer is in a slump and might be hurt as he hasn't played in a while.  Jullien isn't hitting as well as he was and they both could flame out at AA or AAA.  You can't bank on prospects but you have to build with them. 

I do think Miranda with the low K rate and high contact rate is about as close to a sure thing as you can get especially since he is doing so well at AAA.  All indicators point to a successful transition.  He won't likely have a 900 OPS in MLB but neither does Arraez.  

But to your point I have seen way too many prospects on the cusp of playing MLB that failed to trust that a prospect will be able to replace someone who is producing at the MLB level.  Still if they can get something they need for Arraez I think they can cover 2nd base just fine.

I think a focus of the re-load effort should be on replacing some players with extensive injury histories with players that have historically been more durable. I love Arraez as much as anyone but his knees are a ticking time bomb and he doesn't seem to be durable enough to be an everyday player or athletic enough to be an asset anywhere defensively. If the Twins are approached with a strong offer for him they should absolutely give it strong consideration, especially with the positional depth in the organization as you've pointed out. 

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5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Cruz, Colome, and Pineda.....though I'd like more, I think that's it. I do think Simmons is about 50/50 right now....

Simmons would be the first guy I’d trade. No future plus open up more playing time at 2B for either Arraez or Gordon.

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3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I voted Cruz, Pineda, Simmons, Robles, Duffey, Rogers and Sano.

I'm only sure about the first 4 names on the list; if they don't move Cruz, Pineda, Simmons and Robles they screwed up. 

I would have voted for Colome and Happ but I don't think any contenders will want them even if the Twins pay the salary. They're the kind of veteran pitchers you see eating innings on bad teams.

I think Duffey and Rogers will be in demand and they'll be able to make a deal that is right for the organization with each of them. Moving Sano might be wishful thinking.

Yeah, maybe we can dump them and get a gaggle of Sano, Hicks, Bean type replacements, BRILLIANT!

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5 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Why trade Simmons?  We have no one nearly ready to take his place and with the emphasis on pitching, they will never spend $ on one of the elite SS.  Most analyses I've read conclude Gordon is not a major league SS.  Lewis is also looked at as questionnable at SS.  Might as well plug probably the most important defensive position with known quantity like Simmons.

IMO ready shortstops are Polanco and possibly Gordon. Arraez and Gordon can cover 2nd base when Polanco healthy.

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2 hours ago, Dman said:

Totally agree with this.  Prospects can look great but if they cannot conquer MLB then they can't help.  Even now Steer is in a slump and might be hurt as he hasn't played in a while.  Jullien isn't hitting as well as he was and they both could flame out at AA or AAA.  You can't bank on prospects but you have to build with them. 

I do think Miranda with the low K rate and high contact rate is about as close to a sure thing as you can get especially since he is doing so well at AAA.  All indicators point to a successful transition.  He won't likely have a 900 OPS in MLB but neither does Arraez.  

But to your point I have seen way too many prospects on the cusp of playing MLB that failed to trust that a prospect will be able to replace someone who is producing at the MLB level.  Still if they can get something they need for Arraez I think they can cover 2nd base just fine.

I just plain would not trade Arraez. He can easily be one of the top 10 hitters in Twins franchise history and maybe top 5.

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1 hour ago, twinkiesfan11 said:

I think a focus of the re-load effort should be on replacing some players with extensive injury histories with players that have historically been more durable. I love Arraez as much as anyone but his knees are a ticking time bomb and he doesn't seem to be durable enough to be an everyday player or athletic enough to be an asset anywhere defensively. If the Twins are approached with a strong offer for him they should absolutely give it strong consideration, especially with the positional depth in the organization as you've pointed out. 

I agree about the positional depth but I think:

1) Arraez has potential to be a top 5 hitter in Twins history.

2) I think he’s a plus defender at 3B.

3)He’s hitting .296 on those knees and he’s young.

Only if offered a top 5 pitching prospect would I even consider it and the scouts would have to be convinced he’s a projected #2 or #1 with a high degree of confidence. 

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4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No chance, imo. Not even close. He has no power at all 

Neither did Rod Carew until 1977 when he had a lot of power but IMO Rod Carew is possibly the greatest hitter of all-time. To hit .350, .359, .364, .388 in a five year period, when you consider how much better he was than his peers, there’s a strong case. He won that 1977 batting title by 52 points, over his teammate Lyman Bostock.

Honus Wagner would be another strong contender. I don’t want Arraez to have power except for maybe 30 doubles.

 Give me 9 Luis Arraez’s and I think it would be a killer offense, now and even moreso in the future.

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Rod Carew stole home 17 times in his career and had 353 stolen bases.

There is no comparison.

He is not even the same caliber as Ceasar Tovar who stole home before  Rod Carew in the same inning.

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35 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Neither did Rod Carew until 1977 when he had a lot of power but IMO Rod Carew is possibly the greatest hitter of all-time. To hit .350, .359, .364, .388 in a five year period, when you consider how much better he was than his peers, there’s a strong case. He won that 1977 batting title by 52 points, over his teammate Lyman Bostock.

Honus Wagner would be another strong contender. I don’t want Arraez to have power except for maybe 30 doubles.

 Give me 9 Luis Arraez’s and I think it would be a killer offense, now and even moreso in the future.

The difference between Carew and Arraez is a mile wide, though. Arraez posted his best OPS+ of 125 in 2019. Carew, as a 24 year old, posted an OPS+ just over 150. 

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6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Cruz, Colome, and Pineda.....though I'd like more, I think that's it. I do think Simmons is about 50/50 right now....

Add Happ and that’s my list as well. 4 trades is plenty of action for this year. I don’t think Simmons is an upgrade for any contender, and nothing more than a defensive replacement. 

If anyone under contract beyond this year is traded, I’ll guess Rogers. The bullpen sucks regardless, and solutions can be found easier than starting pitching. 

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1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

I agree about the positional depth but I think:

1) Arraez has potential to be a top 5 hitter in Twins history.

2) I think he’s a plus defender at 3B.

3)He’s hitting .296 on those knees and he’s young.

Only if offered a top 5 pitching prospect would I even consider it and the scouts would have to be convinced he’s a projected #2 or #1 with a high degree of confidence. 

He is a good to great hitter no doubt but those knee's do worry me.  According to Fangraphs his UZR at 3rd base is negative -1.3 right now.  He has a chance to change that for the better but even in his best year 2019 his UZR there was only 0.6 I don't think you can bank on him being a plus defender at 3rd, more likely a slight liability.  Even at second this year his UZR is - 0.4.  You are going to be lucky to get average defense out of him pretty much anywhere and more likely slightly below average.

His walk rate while good is not elite as it has never been 100 points above his average.  In 2019 he did have an over 800 OPS which is good but if he is going to hang in the 700 OPS range we can find other guys that can do that.  Polanco's batting average is 80 points lower and yet his OPS is higher because he has hit 12 HR's and I believe one or two of those won games for us that is the power of power and why teams like players to have power. 

I am not trying to dis on Arraez he is a very good player I just believe he is more replaceable than you do.  The Twins don't have to trade him as you said he is young, cheap and controllable and right now there is room for everybody.  I just personally think he is going to need to up his game to stay with the Twins. 

He has a very good batting average but OPS is the name of the game and he is far from elite in that category.  At his best he offers average defense and likely slightly below.  He doesn't run particularly well.  I am not sure that screams elite player to me.  You could say he has an elite hit tool for putting balls in play I guess but if he doesn't move that OPS into the 800 range he looks replaceable to me.

Edit:  FWIW Polanco's defense at 2nd has actually been worse than Arraez and their OPS's are currently close to the same.  Polanco does run better but has a balky ankle as well.  They both have their warts.

 

 

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1 hour ago, RpR said:

The saying: The Grass is ALWAYS Greener on the other Side of the Fence -- fits a HUGE amount of the rhetoric being stated here to magically improve the Twins.🤪

No one is asserting that trades will magically accomplish anything.  What I will argue is that doing nothing and keeping the same roster that's gotten us here will most certainly accomplish nothing.

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The difference between Carew and Arraez is a mile wide, though. Arraez posted his best OPS+ of 125 in 2019. Carew, as a 24 year old, posted an OPS+ just over 150. 

Totally agree.

Arraez is a thousand miles from Carew. Rod Carew is my favorite baseball player in the history of baseball.

However, remember that none other than the future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona predicted that Arraez would win multiple batting titles.

I was really simply making the point that to be a very valuable player, you don’t have to have power. The greatest hitting HR team of all time was eliminated in 1st round.

I don’t necessarily buy comparing OPSs or OPS+s. The first thing is that, to my understanding OPS+ compares a player to all other players, regardless of position.

The second and most fundamental thing is that a player that has a .199 average but has a .720 OPS largely because they have 65 walks at the all-star break is not equal to a player who has a BA portion of the statistic of .296. For the simple reason that walks, a very large percentage of the time are less valuable than hits, even singles.

1st to 3rd won’t happen with a walk. Only infield singles might be equal to a walk but often, on infield singles, runners advance because of rushed throws. So give me the .300 hitter with a .720 OPS over the .220 or .240 player who walks a lot to get .720. Further, you’ll never drive in a runner from 2nd with a walk but will most of the time with a single.

Another thing about Arraez isn’t measured in any SABR statistics that I know of. That’s how he wears down opposing pitchers with long at bats with his immense contact ability. If the rest of the lineup has a BA .020 higher due to 4 or 5 Arraez at bats stressing pitchers physically and mentally, how do we measure that? I definitely would not trade him.

All that said, if Arraez ever becomes Rod Carew, it would be a miracle. But a very special player, yes. I know I get more excited for his at bats than any other player.

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2 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I don’t necessarily buy comparing OPSs or OPS+s. The first thing is that, to my understanding OPS+ compares a player to all other players, regardless of position.

The second and most fundamental thing is that a player that has a .199 average but has a .720 OPS largely because they have 65 walks at the all-star break is not equal to a player who has a BA portion of the statistic of .296. For the simple reason that walks, a very large percentage of the time are less valuable than hits, even singles.

1st to 3rd won’t happen with a walk. Only infield singles might be equal to a walk but often, on infield singles, runners advance because of rushed throws. So give me the .300 hitter with a .720 OPS over the .220 or .240 player who walks a lot to get .720. Further, you’ll never drive in a runner from 2nd with a walk but will most of the time with a single.

You can use wRC+ instead, which weights the value of each event and determines its numerical value using baseball history and runs scored.

But the thing is, OPS+ is usually really close to wRC+ because, as it turns out, the strongest correlation to run scoring is 1)OBP and 2)Slugging so OPS actually does a really good job of measuring hitting ability.

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Polanco ahs played shortstop for years, folks! What's one more year at shortstop if it means Arraez fulltime at second. And, remember, Royce Lewis?

 

I counted 18 names that MIGHT not be on the Twins roster come season's end as we move into the fall. Burrows, Colina, Colome, Coulombe, Farrell, Happ, Jax, Law, Pineda, Robles, Stashak, Thielbar, Astudillo, Simmons, Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder, Rooker. Okay, not ALL of these would leave immediately. Some might still stay as non-roster minor league depth. But I could easily see NONE of these names on the Twins roster come next opening day. I'm sure any could be happily had for a return prospect or three. Pineda, Robles, Thielbar may be the only ones another team might clamor to add.

 

Of course, the Twins will get looks on Cruz, Duffy, Rogers, Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Donaldson. With a surge the next couple of weeks Kepler could raise his value. Same with Sano. Donaldson would be a hard sell, but could package him with someone else (like Colina, for example). I would NOT be sad if all the names in this paragraph were still Twins come 2022 opening day.

 

We gotta remember that there are 8-9 teams dangling players, and a few more dangling depth that can maybe be replaced by prospects, so no one has to blow the Twins away on a deal. Sadly, NO ONE on the Twins team is a necessary needed player for any team, compared to what is probably available. I would like to see the Twins get anything, something, for the majority of guys WHO WILL NOT be here in 2022. But, sadly, I see many of them becoming free agents and the Twins getting zilch.

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In regard to solutions for shortstops, there is an enormous free agent class for 2022 if the Twins don't see a legitimate option on the roster.

The elite who will be looking for 6-10 years and big AAV (think 25-30MM+ per year): Correa, Semien, Story

Then there is Baez who is young and very good, but not elite and will still be looking for 6+ years with maybe more like $20MM per year.

Rounding out the class is Crawford who won't get more than 2 guaranteed years because of his age, but will still probably command $15MM per year and Simmons, who we already have on the roster. The Twins could potentially re-sign him and try to use him as a stop gap next year again. I'd expect him to take another 1 year, $10MM contract.

The good news is that's a huge number of great shortstops so you have to wonder whether or not the glut of supply will drive down prices a bit.

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24 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

 

Of course, the Twins will get looks on Cruz, Duffy, Rogers, Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Donaldson. With a surge the next couple of weeks Kepler could raise his value. Same with Sano. Donaldson would be a hard sell, but could package him with someone else (like Colina, for example). I would NOT be sad if all the names in this paragraph were still Twins come 2022 opening day.

 

 

BRAVO!

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Evan though Pohlad said there was money to sign Berrios and Buxton long term, we don't know what they are asking and what the FO thinks they are worth.  If Berrios wants $25 or more a year, it will probably not happen here, if Buxton wants to be paid on what he has produced in the last two half seasons, that might not happen here either.  A lot will be determined how the Twins come out of the break, a 7 game winning streak would make things more interesting.  Still think in 2 weeks most of the expiring contracts, if not all will be gone.  We might get one surprise if either the Met, Yankees, or Blue Jays decide to do an overpay for Berrios (could also be San Diego).  Just don't be too surprised to find the offers underwhelming, given the state of the CBA, and the status for next year's season.

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11 hours ago, Dman said:

So if you look ahead I think they can afford to trade him early if a team is interested.  The return would have to big though as he has 4 years of control left.

I sure hope not..hitters who are "true hitters" & give a good at bat every appearance are few & far between on this squad imo. I love watch young Luis play baseball. 

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3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

a player that has a .199 average but has a .720 OPS largely because they have 65 walks at the all-star break is not equal to a player who has a BA portion of the statistic of .296.

Essentially BA counts twice in OPS, once in OBP (glossing over the different denominators) and once as the foundation for SLG.  So OPS is just another acknowledgement of the importance of the hit "tool".  A player batting .296 has a huge head start toward getting the same .720 as your .199 walk-and-homer-a-lot batter, and unless he hits with no power to speak of he will get there.

Few high OPS scores are built on phenomenal walk rates - it's hard to think up how it could be done except in combination with the other batting skills of contact and power. Nobody believes walks are as good as hits.

The complaint that walks come at the expense of swinging the bat and getting hits is misplaced.  With most players it's pretty likely the walks come at the "expense" of silly outs from swinging at garbage.

 

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Which winning team has a bullpen so bad that Colome's production would be an addition? Same for Happ. The only hope for a trade is that someone thinks they can fix them.  In turn, the Twins would get a prospect they can try to fix

 

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LOTS of great points made on many players.  I still think this year is more of an aberration than a trend, but the White Sox are clearly better than we are.  Their young pitching is IMPRESSIVE.  Has anyone noticed how GOOD the Tigers young pitchers have looked??  And Cleveland is better than us despite missing Bieber for a good chunk of this season.  Guys, the Twins have to get better.  Some tough decisions need to be made.  If they can somehow move Donaldson's contract, Sano and his strikeouts, Pineda, Happ, Theilbar, that would clear out a lot of dead weight.  But some GOOD players---Arraez, Berrios, Rogers, Kepler, Garver, etc...MIGHT need to be moved.  I'm against trading Berrios.  But if we got back what the Dodgers or Padres were projected to give up I'd do it.  It all depends on what the return is.  

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10 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

 

The second and most fundamental thing is that a player that has a .199 average but has a .720 OPS largely because they have 65 walks at the all-star break is not equal to a player who has a BA portion of the statistic of .296. For the simple reason that walks, a very large percentage of the time are less valuable than hits, even singles.

1st to 3rd won’t happen with a walk. Only infield singles might be equal to a walk but often, on infield singles, runners advance because of rushed throws. So give me the .300 hitter with a .720 OPS over the .220 or .240 player who walks a lot to get .720. Further, you’ll never drive in a runner from 2nd with a walk but will most of the time with a single.

Another thing about Arraez isn’t measured in any SABR statistics that I know of. That’s how he wears down opposing pitchers with long at bats with his immense contact ability. If the rest of the lineup has a BA .020 higher due to 4 or 5 Arraez at bats stressing pitchers physically and mentally, how do we measure that? I definitely would not trade him.

 

I believe we have had the walks discussion on this board before and I think it was Brock who brought this one fundamental point home to me.  The most important thing a team can do offensively is not make outs. A walk is not an out.  A walk may not be as powerful as a hit but its most important function is that it does not create an out and as you pointed out it puts that all important stress on the pitcher because he usually has had to throw 5 to 8 pitches or more and still did not produce an out.  Walks are one of the best ways too stress a pitcher and that is just one of the reasons they are important.

Want more pitcher stress then walk a guy like Buxton who can likely steal second almost every time.  Walk the leadoff hitter and you might be a double a way from scoring a run.  Walks are far more important than you are giving them credit for.

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12 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

1st to 3rd won’t happen with a walk. Only infield singles might be equal to a walk but often, on infield singles, runners advance because of rushed throws. So give me the .300 hitter with a .720 OPS over the .220 or .240 player who walks a lot to get .720. Further, you’ll never drive in a runner from 2nd with a walk but will most of the time with a single.

You have me intrigued. I wondered if many recent .720 OPS seasons with a .300 batting average existed. My first thought was Ben Revere. He hit .306 in 2015 with a .719 OPS. In 2015 he was traded from the Phillies to the Blue Jays but most of the data is from his time with the Phillies. The Phillies happen to have a .229 hitter with a .720 OPS that year in Ryan Howard. I am not sure Howard fits your model because he gets there mostly from power. I am guessing that any of these low average hitters are getting to .720 with power. I don’t think the player who is low average and little power would get walks very often. Pitchers would just pound the strike zone.

Who contributed more to wins?

Howard ended with a WPA of -0.1. Revere had a WPA of 0.7. At least in this one instance it appears the player who puts the ball in play more often contributed more to wins. I wonder if anyone has studied this in detail. 

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IF, the Twins keep go into next year with Buxton, Cruz, Donaldson, Garver, Polanco and Simmons they will have the base for a DEFENSE, (which is lacking when all of them are not playing) and and offense.

You can fill in the blanks, Kiriloff would be good at first and Kepler may return to what is expected, while left field is lacking,  for the holes but this team would capable of taking on Chicago heads-up .

NOW, pitching, your guess is as good as mine; --  Bench Players Refsnyder and Garlick are better than what they are tossing out there now, Astudillo is as good a catcher as either Rotvedt or Jeffers but bench for Second, Short Stop and Third is open as no one on the team now is better than -- meh.

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For those who think bringing up -- AAA Wunder Kinder -- is what the Twins should do, check online for the article on Detroits  "elite prospect"  Nomar Mazara.

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