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This Twins Front Office Doesn’t Have An Inspiring Trade Deadline Track Record


6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For sure. I even said that in the post. Not taking away anything from what he's doing and not predicting a collapse. But those numbers are certainly a red flag. At the end of the day his job is to stop the other team from scoring. He's doing that well now. But there's some pretty big signs that it may not be sustainable. I wish the kid nothing but the best and that trade is certainly not a gold star moment for the FO. And I'm well aware that a large segment of the baseball fan population aren't fans of statcast data, advanced stats, analytics, what-have-you, but its available data that gives a look into how he's performing that people can do with what they will. I omitted his 74th percentile K%, 81st BB%, 71st Whiff%, and 78th Chase Rate that explain why he's able to survive giving up hard contact. The job of front offices and scouts and coaches is to determine if he can maintain those good rates and/or improve the bad ones. 

I'd certainly rather have Ynoa in a Twins uniform right now than having traded him for 1 Garcia start, but that's hindsight and I wasn't overly upset with the trade at the time.

Well said, I enjoy reading your input for sure.

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Win or Loss depends on how we view the trade(s).  If we trade a guy we don't believe we can sign long term, pending FA and get some value back in bodies, it's a win in my view.  Get something hell or high water and not put a hope on an agent who is chirping in players ear for more money. That's why agents are there.  Now let's say we trade Cruz at the deadline with the thought is we can't sign him next year based on NL installing DH and he has many suitors.  his value is $12MM for this example.  We get 3 MiLB guys to take his place and one of them hits the bigs next year.  His value is major league minimum and we save $$'s to use somewhere else (pitching and more pitching).  That's a win-win.  If Cruz doesn't like his FA options and twins somehow convince him to come back on team friendly deal, that would be win-win-win.  My point really is pending FA gets traded, you get new bodies and then let's see what FA gets in a new deal and produces vs what we spend on new free'd up money.  

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5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The Twins had given Ynoa $800,000 to sign just a couple years earlier. He was a huge FA get out of the DR.

I said nobody saw Ynoa's success coming, but for that price, obviously someone would have. Apologies to whoever out there was a Ynoa advocate! All I remember from that conversation on this board was how good it was to flip Garcia after one start the way we did. 

I stand corrected.  

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Disagree with anyone who considers the Escobar trade a win. He signed a very reasonable extension for Arizona and has performed extremely well. Re-signing him would have alleviated the need to sign Donaldson to a monster contract with those funds (possibly) being allocated elsewhere. Thus far our return has been two outfielders that may never see MLB and Duran, who though promising, has yet to reach the big stage.  We may consider this a win some years down the road, but as of now - not even close.

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12 minutes ago, Rigby said:

Disagree with anyone who considers the Escobar trade a win. He signed a very reasonable extension for Arizona and has performed extremely well. Re-signing him would have alleviated the need to sign Donaldson to a monster contract with those funds (possibly) being allocated elsewhere. Thus far our return has been two outfielders that may never see MLB and Duran, who though promising, has yet to reach the big stage.  We may consider this a win some years down the road, but as of now - not even close.

In 2018 (after the trade) Escobar had a 102 OPS+ with Arizona. He has since gone 110, 62, 106. He's been basically a league average hitter since the trade. He had a 117 wRC+ in 2018. Then 108, 56, 105. "Extremely well" is not how I'd describe his performance since that trade. Extremely average is how I'd describe it. If you can turn a league average player on an expiring deal into a top 100 global prospect you do it 100% of the time.

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The funny thing to me is the same people who are angry at the front office for "botching" some of these trades, which the jury is still out on considering we haven't seen some key guys in those deals, are the same people wanting a "re-tool" in 2022. 

If your angry about these trades, take a look at the free agent signings.

When you look at that, why would you have confidence in them nailing a must win offseason when its potentially the last of a Buxton and Berrios core.

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2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

In 2018 (after the trade) Escobar had a 102 OPS+ with Arizona. He has since gone 110, 62, 106. He's been basically a league average hitter since the trade. He had a 117 wRC+ in 2018. Then 108, 56, 105. "Extremely well" is not how I'd describe his performance since that trade. Extremely average is how I'd describe it. If you can turn a league average player on an expiring deal into a top 100 global prospect you do it 100% of the time.

Agree with everything you said.  I would add that anything that happened after the 2018 season is absolutely irrelevant to evaluating the trade.  The value proposition was we traded the remainder of his contract (2018 season) for Duran and Maciel.  As you pointed out Duran is a top 100 prospect.  If we are evaluating the trade today, that's a great outcome.  Escobar produced reasonably well under his next contract.  We spent quite wisely in 2019 so I am not sure how you evaluate how the money was allocated vs spending it on him but that does not change the fact that anything he did after his contract was up should not be part of the trade evaluation.

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3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Here’s what I posted on Twitter yesterday and it’s relevant to the FO decision making.

 

Screen Shot 2021-07-08 at 12.49.59 PM.png

Yeah, thank goodness Twins didn't have to pay Jake the total $19 million last season. They just couldn't reach a deal for this season, for some odd reason. Twins felt better off with Happ and Shoemaker.

 

Lance Lynn was a headcase. Kinda straightened out with the Yankees. Twins passed on him (and him on the Twins) when a free agent. Twins could've traded like the Sox did, but didn't/

 

I would've gone harder after Rich Hill. Tampa got a full season of Rich for less than the Twins for weeks in 2020. Go figure. But, hey, we got Happ who is younger.

 

Twins didn't feel Kyle was worth whatever in arbitration, so they passed. They also didn't see the worth in a long-term contract, Texas struck gold, only paying partial for 2020 and getting a deal for this season (and maybe the next). Who would have figured. If you can't reward a player for what they have done growing up in the organization, then you might have trouble keeping players beyond arbitration. Just saying.....

 

Astros needed a pitcher and the Twins had little invested in this Rule 5 pickup of yore. Didn't see him as a closer, and someone getting expensive for "just" being in the pen. Got a decent return...and Ryan got to pitch in Texas where you wear lots of suntan lotion.

 

Littell dominated as a starter in the minors. Went ker-plink. Then showed greatness as a bullpen arm. Then ker-plunk again. Thought he might appear bad enough that no one would care that they had to 40-man him. I felt the Twins gave up on this future (possible) Liam Hendriks.

 

I was a Trevor May booster. He is over 30 and the Twins didn't want to pay him $8 or so million or wrangle a multi-year deal with the guy. That they couldn't trade him was a loss for the front office. He would be our closer now instead of Colombe or whatever.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tim said:

The funny thing to me is the same people who are angry at the front office for "botching" some of these trades, which the jury is still out on considering we haven't seen some key guys in those deals, are the same people wanting a "re-tool" in 2022. 

If your angry about these trades, take a look at the free agent signings.

No I want trades. I just want more of them. I don't typically hold the team's feet to the fire unless it's clear from the start it was a dumb idea (Seriously, Matt Capps?!? He can't strike out his grandma). I think the team can improve more with trades than free agents in fact. Except for the few folks around here who think the Twins might some day shop in the Harper/Machado aisle, the free agents affordable to the Twins, were almost certainly also affordable to the team that let them walk. In pretty much every case, these guys have multiple red flags.

Make trades. Give up something that hurts enough to get another team to give you players who are good/controllable/fill a position of need. And make a habit of doing it. Our prospects aren't likely any more magical than other teams prospects and in need of being hoarded. And our vets aren't likely any more essential to team building than other teams vets. 

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28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 If you can turn a league average player on an expiring deal into a top 100 global prospect you do it 100% of the time.

Sounds kinda like Jake Cave for Luis Gil 😐.

To me, the overall tone of the article was whether or not you trust the Twins front office to make good trades at the deadline this year (based on previous years results).  I think in the last few years there were people on here that felt the Twins had fleeced the Diamondbacks, etc.  I'm not sure anyone got fleeced.  

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1 hour ago, Rigby said:

Disagree with anyone who considers the Escobar trade a win. He signed a very reasonable extension for Arizona and has performed extremely well. Re-signing him would have alleviated the need to sign Donaldson to a monster contract with those funds (possibly) being allocated elsewhere. Thus far our return has been two outfielders that may never see MLB and Duran, who though promising, has yet to reach the big stage.  We may consider this a win some years down the road, but as of now - not even close.

There was no reason the Twins could not have re-signed him in 2019, had they wanted to.  You leave out here the possibility that the FO may have been aware that Escobar wasn't interested in signing with the Twins in FA.  If so, trading him in a season where you weren't going to make the playoffs, and it also being his last season of control, is a complete no-brainer of a move.

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Why did the trades happen. Well, if you remember, Escobar was entering his free agent year. No qualifying offer for the guy. There was contract discussion but nothing much was happening. Arizona called. The Twins saw an opportunity that after the season ends, depending on Escobar's final performance, they could bring him back on the cheap (always on the cheap here). Escobar had a wonderful time in Arizona, they made a very reasonable offer out-of-the-season-ending-gate and he just flatout accepted. No need to wait for a counter offer if the Twins weren't serious in the first place. Twins got two decent prospects.

Shades of Zach Duke. Today we could be looking at similar trades for Law or Thielbar and, hopefully, Colome. Dozier was tanking and the Twins couldn't figure out if they wanted to keep him or not.  He was going to be a free agent. Trade him and maybe resign him (on the cheap). The Twins were forced to take Logan Forsythe and his salary in return, which ate up a roster spot, but Forsythe was okay. Twins also saw some return for Rodney, who was not going to come back for Twins money. Sorta like Robles this year, and a good reason for the Twins to offer him for a prospect. The Twins cleaned house and got prospects.

 

 

In 2017 Lynn was a salary dump to the Yanks who gave us Austin, behind in the pecking order and out-of-options who might fit into the Twins need for a 1B/DH, and a...prospect still in the system with promise (Rijo).

 

Someone wanted Kintzler more than the Twins who were on he edge of the Wild Card race, and the Twins thought they could stay in the hunt with Belisle or others. Plus they didn't think he was worth paying more money (shades of Wisler, May or others). Was he coming off a string of bad appearances for a couple of weeks? Anything? Somehow Kintzler still keeps finding work for his special blend of slowness and ground ball outs. The Twins grabbed Garcia, thinking they were in contention, then decided to flip him when the Yankees came calling...so they traded Ynoa for Enns and Littell. Littell was lights out in the minors and seemed a probable starter. We know what happened here. Enns was one of those throw-ins, make him work or lose him because you don't want to 40-man him.

 

In 2019, the Twins were going on a bullpen hunt, shades of Matt Capps. Dyson bombed and all three prospects are still in play. Romo did his job and came back (on the cheap, the magic words) for another year of Twins action. Villamont is still a prospect to watch. Davis and Davis were depth the Twins could part with and were somehow behind Weil and a horde of outfielders.

 

A word on prospects. Organizations know where guys stand in their system. They hopefully know, like in Ynoa, that they will advance to this level or that level, who is ahead of them in the 40-man protection spread, how much have we invested, what can we get in return. Teams like to trade impending free agents for prospects: if I can get a guy another team paid a couple of million to sign two years ago, well, I didn't have to pay that. And hopefully your scouting sees potential to fit into the mix of players growing on the farm. You also see prospects change hands that another team may/may not want to protect for 40-man considerations, or guys who will be impending minor league free agents or guys out of options as throw-ins. But if you look at the 100 names right now that the Twins have at Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers, how many will make it to the big leagues. Hell, how many will play three years in the minors before being replaced. You look at your dollar investment, the age of the guys, and any improvement. And you have scouts keeping tab of the same in ALL other organizations.

 

Trade deadline actions happen for a reason. You can dangle all the players you want, but it is the contending teams that are sitting in the conference room looking at the board at their present needs (due to incompetence or injury) and looking at their own pecking order of players in the system, and then making a call a proposing a deal. If I am going to take-on your Donaldson, you may have to take on a similar return to deal with in your own future. I'm dealing with from system depth or players on the cusp of not having a place in my organization as part of any equation.

 

Of course, Berrios is a key who, like Santana before him is running his own show as long as he produces. But teams also know they have to payout money on their end or lose him, or just wait another season and he will be a free agent.

 

Robles, Rogers, Duffey, maybe even Colome could be had. Pineda and Happ are looking for takers.

 

Cruz is an exceptional piece and only necessary for half-a-season. Can you trust that he will be there for the second half?

 

Who would you want Simmons? Better fielding than most. Are you facing an injury dilemma? Donaldson is just too expensive. .250, not 10 home runs, missed a bunch of games? Try and put a spin on him!

 

All the players the Twins traded away at deadline were as good-as-gone anyway, which is why they were traded (okay, maybe NOT Pressly, and a couple could've been resigned for double of their current salaries). 

 

And with no waiver wire trades in August...you put the guy out there and can't pull them back to work a trade...gotta let them go...I sadly don't se the Twins doing that and eating any of he salaries of Colome, Happ, Simmons - which raises hell with the roster (since they won't be coming back) as they will take away playing time from the future.

 

 

 

 

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This seems like a fair and unbiased analysis of Twins deadline trades. We'll see soon, as the class of 2018 matures into the league.   Good article.   :)

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Ryan Pressly. 

Pressly, Pressly, Pressly!

NOT PRESSLEY. (And Duffey, NOT Duffy! But that is another story.....)

Thanke you (and I have no idea who Colombe is - Alex Colome?Danny Coulombe?).

Use all the stats and limits and unlimited years (regarding prospects) you want. I am totally bummed watching players we traded (and could have re-signed instead for more years) or just let go helping other teams while the guys we got age out in the minors and when they get here are 25 and older and still not ready for the show. I have no faith in our FO rental. They are doing what they do for money, and would bail for more in a flash. And that's the way it is, July 8, 2021.............

 

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2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Is it possible to very much agree with the conclusion while completely disowning the methodology?

If you have a crystal ball.  If not. you are forming a conclusion with very incomplete information.  They have a name for that amongst people who get paid to form conclusions .... Unemployed.

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11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

So the Twins get a pass because prospects take time, but don't take the blame when Ynoa goes the other way and is producing NOW in the big leagues? 

Get credit for how Alcala SHOULD be doing?

Yup, trading Ynoa was a bad trade. So for a bad trade the front office is horrible. Got it

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2 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Pressly. 

Pressly, Pressly, Pressly!

NOT PRESSLEY.

Thanke you.

Would we have won a playoff series in 2019 instead of being one and done?  No, the BP had very little to do with our failures.  So, just exactly what is it worth to win 102 or 103 games instead of 101.  I don't really know if Alcala is going to be a middle reliever or a very good late inning guy.  What I do know is that the actual impact was negligible so I prefer at least having a chance at having a guy that could be impactful for multiple seasons.  This very logic of dwelling on Pressly when he would have had little impact over a short period is why people just can't understand Tampa's practices.

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10 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I don't think we'd be rendering any final decisions about it on the day of the trade. But in 4 years, if that lotto ticket is a plus producer in MLB, while Pineda fizzles out almost immediately, I think we'd call it a great move by the Twins and a failed gamble by our trading partner. Which seems to be how that particular trade is described in this article (great for the Braves, failed gamble by the Twins).

Agreed that there is still time to evaluate the 2018 deals, although the bar is likely higher than just Pressly's WAR (we had to trade for other relievers at the 2019 deadline and could have used those resources to supplement a different spot instead).

There is not indication that Presley would have ever resigned with the Twins. People make that assumption, but there is no truth to it. The front office still would have had to scrounge up relievers One less for 2019 as I think Presley had one more year of control left. It would be more likely he would have preformed like he did for the Twins than what he did for the Astros

 

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7 minutes ago, old nurse said:

There is not indication that Presley would have ever resigned with the Twins. People make that assumption, but there is no truth to it. The front office still would have had to scrounge up relievers One less for 2019 as I think Presley had one more year of control left. It would be more likely he would have preformed like he did for the Twins than what he did for the Astros

 

But Pressly, maybe. No indication that he wouldn't have, either.

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4 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Siri put the e in there just to irritate you 

Ah, the ol' passing the blame...... and left out the other s, too, apparently. 😛

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I agree with the original post. Levine hasn't made good trades and doesn't seem to have a good read on the talent. I'm still upset about the 2017. First, we're trading away guys like Ynoa (who did indeed have strong supporters, including Ben, who loved the deal for Atlanta) to get Garcia, only to turn around a week later and trade away Garcia and Kinzter for nothing. It was like the FO had no idea if we were buyers or sellers. That's a pretty big problem. I have no expectation that we will make a good trade this year but we should be selling off everything.

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10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'd simply argue the Twins have never been a team to make a splash at the trade deadline. Actually, I don't think MLB fans generally see a lot of big moves in any given year despite all the speculation.

The difficult situation right now is the Twins don't have much of an identity after this year and other division rivals are clearly already better teams with bigger budgets. The current front office has, once again, squandered opportunities to "put the boot on the throat" when they were obvious favories.

bean 5302:  Regarding your opening comment------"the Twins have never been a team to make a splash at the trade deadline"-----made me think back to 2003 when the Twins traded for Shannon Stewart from Toronto.  That is the ONLY time that I can remember (when the Twins were in contention) that the FO actually received a "in the prime of his career" player that actually contributed afterward.  

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The jury is still out as we still have 5 or 6 prospects from those deals.   Trading Ynoa is the bad move so far.  but the ones considered the best prospects are still here.  Those guys lost a year of development which was unforseen.  but Rijo, Duran, Alcala coould be good.  Smeltzer a swingman/ long reliever and Celestino a good CF.  So I don't think those trades have proven to be bad at this point.  

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23 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Get credit for how Alcala SHOULD be doing?

This one got me too - I just about did a spit take with my morning coffee when I read your response here. Good stuff.

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9 hours ago, darwin22 said:

-made me think back to 2003 when the Twins traded for Shannon Stewart from Toronto.  That is the ONLY time that I can remember (when the Twins were in contention) that the FO actually received a "in the prime of his career" player that actually contributed afterward.  

Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty, if I recall correctly?

Great to hear his name again. Stewart was just a monster during his time with the Twins, I believe he was 3rd in the MVP vote that year or the next.

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Rather than saying, "Chris Vallimont?  Who?"  I will take a different approach:

Unfair comparison!  Chris Vallimont will DOMINATE the majors when he gets here!*

Alright....

Although I question this team's ability to evaluate talent beyond looking at "barrels," I think this is too small of a sample size to be a truly fair comparison.  However, I will say that most of us knew that trading Pressly was a bad idea at the time.  We fooled ourselves into believing the Twins would just sign him again.  Granted, Pressly is much happier now and at the end of the day this sport is about people.  Trading Escobar also seemed like a reach, but the Twins did fine without him.  Take those two players out and we are left with trades that most of us would have made, or at least not vetoed.

*Yes, OK, most likely this would only be after the Twins traded him.

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