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Trade Deadline SZN: 3 Trade Proposals for José Berríos


30 minutes ago, Seansy said:

Oh they would probably do that. I was just saying you aren't getting both for just Berríos.

I did not think a top 10 prospect for Berrios sounded right but the trade simulator shows that pretty even?  I would love to get a prospect like him instead of letting Berrios walk next year.  Pearson is ready now.  I think our chances of developing a team that can be back in contention soon improve with the addition of that type of prospect.

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Of the three I like the Toronto trade. Given the Twins inability to develop starting pitching that should be the priority in any trade. The Mets five tool Mauricio is intriguing and the Twins honchos like guys with lots of tools. But he’s a ways away from the big leagues. The Twins need talent that can help by next year. 

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I consider the Twins having strong depth at shortstop, assuming Royce Lewis can play the position. You have Wander Javier, a decision that needs to be made this fall, and far enough back is Keoni Cavaco. If a shortstop is had from another organization, you have to find somewhere to play Lewis, and those other two names are basically tradebait.

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1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

I consider the Twins having strong depth at shortstop, assuming Royce Lewis can play the position. You have Wander Javier, a decision that needs to be made this fall, and far enough back is Keoni Cavaco. If a shortstop is had from another organization, you have to find somewhere to play Lewis, and those other two names are basically tradebait.

I wish we really knew if Lewis was a sure thing or even highly probable to stick at SS.  Javier still has a ways to go in proving he will not be an offensive liability.  Cavaco has shown very little that suggests he is going to make it to the MLB level.  Even Lewis has not proven much outside the fall league.  IMO, we have a few guys that might be average at the position but with all the great SS in this league the guys we have now are not likely to put us on equal ground at SS unless Lewis puts it all together.  He may very well end up in CF and he might not be all that great offensively and BTW  I am generally an optimist..

 

At this moment ... I might rank Miranda as our best prospect among position players if we consider Kirilloff and Larnach to have graduated from prospect status..

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Pitching is why we won the division last year.  It is why the White Sox are winning the division and we aren't.  To win next year and in the future, you need to build a staff AROUND Berrios.  That's why, if the Twins make a blockbuster trade it should involve Buxton (ALL THAT POTENTIAL) and not Berrios.  We've probably played HALF or more of our games WITHOUT Buxton since he came up.  We're used to it.  Berrios takes the ball every 5th day.  I trade Buxton.  I SIGN Berrios.

 

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14 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Pitching is why we won the division last year.  It is why the White Sox are winning the division and we aren't.  To win next year and in the future, you need to build a staff AROUND Berrios.  That's why, if the Twins make a blockbuster trade it should involve Buxton (ALL THAT POTENTIAL) and not Berrios.  We've probably played HALF or more of our games WITHOUT Buxton since he came up.  We're used to it.  Berrios takes the ball every 5th day.  I trade Buxton.  I SIGN Berrios.

 

You have this backwards. 

When Buxton is on the field, he's a difference maker.

When Berrios is on the field, he's a little above average starter. 

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15 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Wonder what we could get from the Dodgers with Bauer likely getting a long suspension? 

As for the deals above, I like the Jays and then the Mets best. Never deal with the devil and I'd prefer Berrios go to the NL 

I would hope the Dodgers are on our radar right now. If we are seriously considering a Berrios trade, I would rather get their young players back than those of just about any of the other teams mentioned here.

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19 hours ago, Tim said:

The front office is not taking back Luis Gil. That is essentially admitting they screwed up and dealt away a top 100 pitching prospect for Jake Cave, ownership would absolutely question their decision making ability. Swap him out for Luis Medina and you got a deal.

Gil has advanced farther through the minors and has maintained or boosted his performance since that trade. His value in trade has changed, and he's less of a wild card than he was then (though it's still inherently risky to project what value a MiLB player will have in the majors). If they really value Gil, the FO shouldn't be letting the optics of something that happened a few years ago limit them in a deal.

(....That is, if you think their best move is to trade Berríos, which I don't believe to be true.)

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53 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You have this backwards. 

When Buxton is on the field, he's a difference maker.

When Berrios is on the field, he's a little above average starter. 

I have heard the broadcasters discuss the team's win record with and without him.  He had a big impact even before he started playing like Superman this year.  If I thought Buxton could stay healthy there is no doubt I would prefer to keep Buxton.  I just don't know if it's realistic to believe he can stay healthy.

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You don't have to get only low minors prospects for a top-30 starting pitcher. The Twins' model for a Berríos trade should be the Cleveland trade of Trevor Bauer (boooo) for Franmil Reyes + other prospects last year. Reyes was already in the majors with San Diego and performing well at the time, and he still has plenty of years left until arbitration.

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13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:
  1. Berrios is not our best player, at least not according to Fwar.  He has never been our best player.  He had one year where he was among the highest Fwar.  That was 2019 when there were 4 other players with slightly more or slightly less.
  2. Any team where Berrios is the best player is highly unlikely to be a contender. I guess if you had 12 or 15 guys playing at his level, you might have a contender but generally it might be a sign it’s time for a new plan.

Perhaps more to the point, I just listed the teams that lost their best player (or two) and got better.  There are many other examples like Chicago who without question traded their best player(s) and built a better team.  There are numerous other examples throughout history.  Apparently the norm for sports fans is to just ignore any hard fact that gets in the way of what they like to believe.  There is an old lyric “there is none so blind as he who will not see”.  Sports fans can ignore even the most blatant of examples if it suits their preferred narrative.  

Berrios IS our best pitcher.  If you trade your best player and you get better, he wasn't your best player.

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Just now, dxpavelka said:

Berrios IS our best pitcher.  If you trade your best player and you get better, he wasn't your best player.  AND I said player(S).  He is certainly among our best players.  Trade him and you'll find yourself looking to find another player to give you what he gives you.  You're just chasing your tail.

 

 

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4 hours ago, singlesoverwalks said:

You don't have to get only low minors prospects for a top-30 starting pitcher. The Twins' model for a Berríos trade should be the Cleveland trade of Trevor Bauer (boooo) for Franmil Reyes + other prospects last year. Reyes was already in the majors with San Diego and performing well at the time, and he still has plenty of years left until arbitration.

 But Franmil Reyes was a position player. We don’t need those, really. We need pitching. And no one is going to trade a good performing MLB pitcher for Berrios.

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2 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

 But Franmil Reyes was a position player. We don’t need those, really. We need pitching. And no one is going to trade a good performing MLB pitcher for Berrios.

We're certainly going to need a DH, because Cruz will be traded. Sanó might be that DH, but boy, I dunno. Larnach could be the DH, but then we do have an opening in the outfield.

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7 hours ago, singlesoverwalks said:

We're certainly going to need a DH, because Cruz will be traded. Sanó might be that DH, but boy, I dunno. Larnach could be the DH, but then we do have an opening in the outfield.

Yeah, we might need to replace Cruz, but when Cleveland acquired Franmil Reyes, they already had a MLB rotation of Bieber/Clevinger/Plesac/Civale (and they still had Kluber and Carrasco around as SP assets too).

If we trade Berrios primarily for a position player, we’re pretty much doomed to a very long rebuild.

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3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Yeah, we might need to replace Cruz, but when Cleveland acquired Franmil Reyes, they already had a MLB rotation of Bieber/Clevinger/Plesac/Civale (and they still had Kluber and Carrasco around as SP assets too).

If we trade Berrios primarily for a position player, we’re pretty much doomed to a very long rebuild.

I guess it feels like trading Berrios for minor-league pitchers is almost certainly giving up on 2022. It seems really unlikely that you would get starting pitching that would be better than Berrios would be in 2022. Once in a while you'll get a John Smoltz or Dwight Gooden who is an ace starting pitcher as a rookie, but it's really rare.

Here are the only rookie pitchers who are better than Berrios in terms of Fangraphs WAR this year: Trevor Rogers (MIA) at 2.8 WAR, Ian Anderson (ATL) at 1.9 WAR. Berrios is at 1.8 WAR. In the last full season, 2019, there was no rookie starting pitcher who equaled Berrios's 4.3 WAR.

So, it's possible to improve, but you would have to make a really good trade and probably get lucky. The most likely way you end up with a better pitcher than the 2022 Berrios is if Berrios gets injured, which is certainly possible, but then it's just as likely that the rookie replacement gets injured.

If we don't need hitters for 2022 (I'm skeptical about that, but maybe it's true), then I might hold Berrios rather than trading. Maybe we can trade Nelson Cruz and Michael Pineda for some good 2022 arms (probably bullpen arms - it think it's more common to find rookies who can handle relief roles), put them together with Berrios and some free agents (not that 2021 has given us much reason to believe in our ability to find pitching via free agency), and have enough pitching to contend in 2022.

Or, maybe we need to give up on 2022 and trade Berrios for a vanload of great low minors pitching prospects. 

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8 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

I guess it feels like trading Berrios for minor-league pitchers is almost certainly giving up on 2022. It seems really unlikely th.......................................

Or, maybe we need to give up on 2022 and trade Berrios for a vanload of great low minors pitching prospects. 

What is the path to 2022 being competitive, even with Berrios? That's 1 starting pitcher you can count on. They might be able to sign one good SP in free agency.....so that's 2. Pineda is gone. Maeda? I don't trust him. 

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5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What is the path to 2022 being competitive, even with Berrios? That's 1 starting pitcher you can count on. They might be able to sign one good SP in free agency.....so that's 2. Pineda is gone. Maeda? I don't trust him. 

Trade Cruz and any other one-year veterans you can unload for some blazing minor league arms, sign some free agents, cross your fingers and hope the pieces fall into place (like Ober, Maeda, and Dobby get better, some current prospects work out, etc.). It has worked before. The best strategy in MLB, if you're not going to have a $200 million payroll, is often to be good enough to have a chance at contending.

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1 minute ago, singlesoverwalks said:

Trade Cruz and any other one-year veterans you can unload for some blazing minor league arms, sign some free agents, cross your fingers and hope the pieces fall into place (like Ober, Maeda, and Dobby get better, some current prospects work out, etc.). It has worked before. The best strategy in MLB, if you're not going to have a $200 million payroll, is often to be good enough to have a chance at contending.

How many good starting pitchers can they actually sign next year? Maybe 1. 

To be clear, you think they can trade one year veterans for starting pitchers that will be ready day 1 next year? I have my doubts, but I'd love that!

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11 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

If we don't need hitters for 2022 (I'm skeptical about that, but maybe it's true), then I might hold Berrios rather than trading. 

That's where I'm at -- don't trade Berrios unless we are blown away by an offer (which I doubt will happen).

I mean, we may want to add a hitter or two in particular spots for 2022, sure. That's every team in every season. But overall, our offense is more or less contending quality right now and for the near future.

Trading Berrios will most likely give us some combination of the following:
1. MLB ready hitters like Franmil Reyes
2. prospects that are 2-3 years away
3. pitching prospects that are ready right away but not very good (Archer-Glasnow was an outlier trade result, not the norm)

Any way you slice it, trading Berrios is pretty much a punt on 2022-2023.

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25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What is the path to 2022 being competitive, even with Berrios? That's 1 starting pitcher you can count on. They might be able to sign one good SP in free agency.....so that's 2. Pineda is gone. Maeda? I don't trust him. 

I'd sign a good FA SP, and also trade for one somehow (and be willing to part with prospect capital), pairing them with Berrios for 2022. For the right guy, with 2022 team control, I'd probably even trade for him right now, like the Mets did in July 2019 with Stroman. Yeah, it would suck to pay a deadline premium when you're not really contending, but it would suck even worse to get shut out or settle for a lesser pitcher in the offseason.

Still might need Pineda and/or Maeda at the very back end of the rotation, although hopefully with internal candidates applying some pressure.

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