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A Different Kind of Trade Deadline Discussion


I have an idea for a novel trade deadline thread with a few simple ground rules that will make it different from all other trade deadline threads.  The ground rules are:

  1. No bashing the front office.
  2. No bashing the manager.
  3. No belittling of other opinions.

The purpose of this thread is for presenting your ideas about what should be done between now and the trade deadline.  And to keep this from becoming another long debate about whether or not to extend Berrios and Buxton, the only assumption to follow is that both will refuse an extension and go to free agency in 2022.

So I’ll begin.  I am going to approach this on a position by position basis.  No reason for this but it helps me think.

Catcher

Leave this position alone – except if someone approaches me with an overwhelming offer for Garver.  Then trade him.

First Base

This is Kirilloff’s home.  Trade Sano for whatever you can get.  Package him with Berrios or Buxton and Kepler for the best package. 

Second Base

Arraez, Polanco, Gordon???  I would keep Arraez and Gordon, and see if anyone offers anything of value for Polanco.  He could also be part of a Buxton or Berrios package to increase the return.

Shortstop

I’m wavering on this.  If someone wants Simmons, then trade him.  Gordon or Polanco (if not traded) can fill in for the rest of 2021 and Lewis or Palacios could be the shortstop in 2022.

Third Base

Trade Donaldson for the best offer.  Arraez or (Miranda as a tryout for 2022) takes over.

Left Field

This is now Larnach’s to have and to hold from this day forward.

Center Field

If no trade partner is found, Buxton remains as the center fielder.  If he is moved, Celestino gets a four-month tryout.

Right Field

Offer Kepler as an additional piece in a major trade (see the First Base comment).  If no one wants him, then he plays right field the rest of the year.  If he is moved, Ernie de la Trinidad gets a tryout.

Designated Hitter

Say good bye to our best hitter for the last three years.  Brent Rooker is now the DH.

Starting Pitching

Trade Pineda if an offer is made.  Trade anyone for that matter.

Relief Pitching

Trade everyone that another team asks about.  The only exceptions are Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffy.  Keep both players unless a great offer is made.

Final Comment

All of the trades above are designed to bring to the Twins pitching, pitching, pitching, one or two short stops, and a center fielder.  And it frees up about $60M in salary that can be used for additional pitching, pitching, pitching and maybe a shortstop.  And yes, I realize that the remainder of 2021 might really suck, but hasn’t the first 40% already sucked?

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12 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I have an idea for a novel trade deadline thread with a few simple ground rules that will make it different from all other trade deadline threads.  The ground rules are:

  1. No bashing the front office.
  2. No bashing the manager.
  3. No belittling of other opinions.

The purpose of this thread is for presenting your ideas about what should be done between now and the trade deadline.  And to keep this from becoming another long debate about whether or not to extend Berrios and Buxton, the only assumption to follow is that both will refuse an extension and go to free agency in 2022.

So I’ll begin.  I am going to approach this on a position by position basis.  No reason for this but it helps me think.

Catcher

Leave this position alone – except if someone approaches me with an overwhelming offer for Garver.  Then trade him.

First Base

This is Kirilloff’s home.  Trade Sano for whatever you can get.  Package him with Berrios or Buxton and Kepler for the best package. 

Second Base

Arraez, Polanco, Gordon???  I would keep Arraez and Gordon, and see if anyone offers anything of value for Polanco.  He could also be part of a Buxton or Berrios package to increase the return.

Shortstop

I’m wavering on this.  If someone wants Simmons, then trade him.  Gordon or Polanco (if not traded) can fill in for the rest of 2021 and Lewis or Palacios could be the shortstop in 2022.

Third Base

Trade Donaldson for the best offer.  Arraez or (Miranda as a tryout for 2022) takes over.

Left Field

This is now Larnach’s to have and to hold from this day forward.

Center Field

If no trade partner is found, Buxton remains as the center fielder.  If he is moved, Celestino gets a four-month tryout.

Right Field

Offer Kepler as an additional piece in a major trade (see the First Base comment).  If no one wants him, then he plays right field the rest of the year.  If he is moved, Ernie de la Trinidad gets a tryout.

Designated Hitter

Say good bye to our best hitter for the last three years.  Brent Rooker is now the DH.

Starting Pitching

Trade Pineda if an offer is made.  Trade anyone for that matter.

Relief Pitching

Trade everyone that another team asks about.  The only exceptions are Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffy.  Keep both players unless a great offer is made.

Final Comment

All of the trades above are designed to bring to the Twins pitching, pitching, pitching, one or two short stops, and a center fielder.  And it frees up about $60M in salary that can be used for additional pitching, pitching, pitching and maybe a shortstop.  And yes, I realize that the remainder of 2021 might really suck, but hasn’t the first 40% already sucked?

I agree with a lot of what you say. I think Donaldson’s trade value is increasing and Miranda definitely  deserves a look and could become the long term fixture at 3B.

I’d like to keep Arraez, Polanco and Gordon and trade Simmons. Play Gordon for the rest of the season at 2B. Polanco at SS and Arraez still floating.

I like your idea of trading Kepler or at least making him the 4th OF and giving De La Trinidad a chance, The other option when Buxton’s out would be Larnach, Whitefield and Kirilloff. I envision injecting a speed element into this team and Whitefield, Gordon and eventually Buxton could give the Twins offense an additional dimension for scoring runs.

If Kirilloff plays 1B, then an OF of Larnach, Whitefield, De La Trinidad may be the way to go with Buxton retaking CF when he returns but Whitefield and De La Trinidad staying on 26 man roster.

Whitefield 15 SB in 21 attempts and Gordon 10 for 10 including SPS and Twins would really make a difference, IMO.  

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Simmons and Cruz are the most likely to be traded. Pineda, depending on how he throws once he comes back from injury, could also draw some interest. Sano has hit better in June, and if he keeps it until the deadline could bring a decent prospect from the right team. I would keep Rogers, bad inherited runner numbers and all, as he is probably the best option out there right now. 

Once everyone returns from injury the line-up could look something like this; C - Jeffers; 1B - Kirilloff; 2B - Arraez; 3B - Donaldson (not going anywhere despite what the posters on here wish); SS - Polanco; LF - Larnach; CF - Buxton; RF - Kepler; DH - Garver. The bench could be Gordon, Refsnyder, Astudillo and Rortvedt or maybe one of Riddle, Rooker, or Garlick, or one of the pieces brought in via one of the trades.

Beyond Berrios, Maeda and Rogers I have no idea what the rotation and bullpen could look like after the deadline.  

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I think your ideas are very interesting, but I have to balk at your thought assumption not to resign Berrios or Buxton. I think we should resign one or both and use the money saved from trading Cruz , Donaldson, Simmons, and Kepler to pay for it. I would definitely trade Simmons and live this year with Polanco and Gordon at short to see if that can be a long-term solution. If not, we have to get a shortstop in the off-season. Same with Pineda and Robles, trade them both and then try to re-sign them in the off-season if we can and we think we need them. The same goes for Theilbar. He’s breathing, left-handed, doing decently, and might get us a prospect.  I would also get a Refsnyder an audition in the outfield to see if he can be a stopgap starter/4th outfielder for next year or whether what we’ve seen so far was just a mirage. Also, it’s the wrong time to trade Sano or to DFA Shoemaker. No one will take Sano’s contract and Shoemaker may turn into a decent relief pitcher if we transition him this year.

Everyday starters for the rest of the season:

1B Kirilloff, 2B /SS Gordon/Polanco, 3B Arraez/Miranda, LF Larnach, CF Refsnyder,/Buxton, RF Refsnyder/Rooker/Trinidad, C Jeffers/Garver, DH Sano/Garver. Gone: Cruz, Simmons, Donaldson, Kepler, Garlick. 

Rotation rest of the season:

Berrios, Maeda, Dobnak, Ober, Jax/Barnes/Winder/Duran. Gone: Happ, Pineda. 

Bullpen Rest of the season:

Rogers, Duffy, Alcala, Colome, Shoemaker, Cano/Moran/ Ian Hamilton/Andrew Vazquez/ Burrows/Thorpe. Gone: Robles, Theilbar. You can’t get anything for Colome or Shoemaker so let’s see if we can turn them into something in the second half that would be useful in 2022. There will be plenty of opportunities for the young guys through injuries, trade out for fresh arms, etc.

Thanks for starting this. Should be an interesting thought experiment.

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The team (if healthy) has depth at second base, corner outfield and right handed hitting catcher. Trading Garver, Polanco or Arraez and Kepler would seem to be prudent depending on the return they could get. Sano or Donaldson wouldn't be easy to move. Players with expiring contracts probably all should be on the table. 

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I like Kepler as the backup CF and starting RF..... Yes, he's struggling, but I think he can be a league average CF..... So if they can't sign Buxton, I keep Kepler for sure..... Also, I just don't think Rooker is the answer, but I'd be willing to give him a shot if there are not other options.

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Very interesting and I agree with much of what you are saying.  But in the end, you are calling for a total rebuild.  Granted, if they can get a few players back who are close to big league ready, the time until they are competitive may be short...say a couple years.

And don't misunderstand what I was saying, a total rebuild may be what is both needed and best for the Twins.

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So far I’ve read up to 10 players that people would like to trade. That’s AJ Preller level of turnover for the MLB roster. Can’t see Falvey and Levine doing that. 
 

I think it will be underwhelming for those who want to tear it all down. The expiring contracts will be flipped and nothing after that. If Nelson Cruz only has 1 or 2 interested teams giving A ball long shot prospects I would keep him for the rest of the season. 
 

This winter is where the Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Sano, Donaldson trades potentially happen. 

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19 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

So far I’ve read up to 10 players that people would like to trade. That’s AJ Preller level of turnover for the MLB roster. Can’t see Falvey and Levine doing that. 
 

I think it will be underwhelming for those who want to tear it all down. The expiring contracts will be flipped and nothing after that. If Nelson Cruz only has 1 or 2 interested teams giving A ball long shot prospects I would keep him for the rest of the season. 
 

This winter is where the Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Sano, Donaldson trades potentially happen. 

Agreed.... Of them all, Berrios is the one I can see people paying a lot for this year.....

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As one of the people advocating trading five or six guys, I agree with you that the returns are likely to be underwhelming. I think we can get a decent prospect or two for a healthy Pineda, maybe a decent one at the A level for Robles, same for Simmons. Cruz is hard to gauge because of the limited market so I’m not sure if he would get us a decent prospect or more like two middle of the road guys. Happ Is more of a salary dump unless he rips off three or four strong starts in a row over the next month. Donaldson is most definitely a salary dump and we will have to probably package $5 million a year in salary with him to get any kind of possible prospect because of that contract. Kepler could net us a prospect with upside, but also with risks because even his “team friendly” contract is too much for his level of production.

I would still make every single one of those trades because getting a return is not the cake, It is the icing on top of the cake. The cake is (1) freeing up payroll so that we can make very competitive offers for Berrios and Buxton over the off-season, and (2)  freeing up  playing time now for young guys so they can develop and possibly help us as early as 2022 and be really ready in 2023. The guys I want to trade are unlikely to help us with our next competitive team, with the possible exception of a re-signed Pineda or Robles. I actually think Miguel Sano has the best chance of all of them to beI a contributing member of our next contending team so I would keep him.

The overriding, primary point of the rest of the season is to develop younger players who seem to be at or close to the MLB level and determining what we think we have short and long-term, so that we can make intelligent decisions in the off-season to sign our own players or free agents to fill the actual holes. Keeping players around this year so we can win closer to 80 games rather than closer  to 70 games Is, in my view, the height of folly. This year is a retool/rebuild year with an eye towards a possible contention in 2022 and probable contention in 2023. This is not what any of us expected and it’s not what any of us wanted for the season. However, it’s what we have and we need to move forward accordingly. We need to take a look at the players we have, determine who is likely to be the internal starters next year and the two years there after, determine if they’re good enough to contend, and make sure we have the necessary payroll to sign our important existing players and free agents to fill in where necessary. We’ve actually gotten off to a good start in that regard with moves made this year promoting players. Let’s not do this halfway, let’s complete the job.

 

 

 

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I believe 3 things that are not popular.  One it is highly unlikely they can contend in any serious manner next year.  Two, Berrios is not signing an extension.  Three, same for Buxton.  They are going to insist on the opportunity provided them in free agency. Many won’t like this approach.  However, anyone not listed below is available.

One of Arraez or Polanco stays.  
Alex Kirilloff
Trevor Larnach
Ryan Jeffers
Kenta Maeda
Jorge Alcala
Bailey Ober

I hope to move as many of the players on an expiring contracts as possible.  I pray that Cruz continues to hit and Pineda comes back strong.  Our value and opportunity to rebuild is in players expiring after 2022.  Berrios / Buxton / Rodgers / Duffey.  I am not moving them without impact type prospects coming back but trading these guys can bring back players that make a difference for several years.  Hold on to them until the off-season or next year’s deadline if a significant return can’t be negotiated.

The two guys who I would most like to move are Sano and Donaldson.  IDK how that happens with Sano unless he catches fire in the next week.  Donaldson would take the right scenario and IDK if that exists.  We would have to take back salary.  However, moving these two guys would be a good first step in accelerating the process.  

If we move Berrios, let the parade of prospects begin.  If the rotation by some miracle comes together quickly, we will have budget for a major free agent SP next year.  If the audition and development takes the rest of this year and 22 as I expect, use the money that would have been spent on Berrios for a free agent SP in 2023.

If we move Buxton, let Gordon play CF.  Kepler is the back-up plan for 22 or perhaps a free agent or a player taken in trade from these deadline moves.

If Sano goes (not happening) Kirilloff gets 1st base.  How do we replace Cruz?  IDK.  That depends on how the rest of the roster comes together.  

The bullpen is going to be a 1 ½ year rebuild.  Hopefully there are some arms in the system that can help.  I would also look for BP arms when trading some of our expiring contracts
 

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Great concept and I embrace it 100%! And I understand your parameters, but I feel Berrios and Buxton WILL be given offers...whether or not they accept is to be determined and I'm not going to go down that rabbit hole...and I believe BOTH are off the table at this time with the Twins planning on keeping both for 2022.

And I hate to be a downer, especially because it's not my nature, but for a variety of reasons, I don't think the Twins have a lot of ammunition to trade for anything other than fliers and lower level prospects. Where I DO THINK they could come out on top is trying to acquire BP arms at AAA and AA who could contribute soon. "What? That's crazy Doc! Aren't you just talking about a different form of dumpster diving?" Not at all! (And I still hate that term!) But there are bullpen pitchers of at least decent quality in other organizations and SP who either need to move to the pen or are already make the transition. Think Rogers or Duffey a couple years ago or more recent examples like Duran or Stashak or the now gone Chalmers. 

So here I go position by position:

CATCHER:

No trades. Period. First of all, I don't see anyone wanting Garver right now post surgery. We're not even sure when he will be back. Secondly, he just might be a primary DH in 2022 as well as a part time 1B and backup to Jeffers. (Keeping his bat in the lineup daily but transitioning him from the dish due to past concussions and this latest surgery).

FIRST BASE:

Honestly, if I'm a contending team needing a bat, especially in the AL because he can also DH, I could be in on Sano. He's turned in to a solid 1B and despite his "streakiness", I could plug him in anywhere from 4-7 in my lineup and live with the bad moments/streaks because he can carry my team offensively for weeks on end at times. Which is also the reason I DON'T trade him unless the return is a solid player/prospect. He's just too good and too dangerous to "give away" despite frustration and said "streakiness". But he may be replaceable and his loss gains a few $M for roster flexibility and extensions.

2B/SS/3B:

IMO, these are intertwined. 

Unless the return is really good, I keep Polanco. If you haven't been paying attention, despite his ankle barking at him a few weeks ago, he has found his stroke again, after self-confessing he was struggling early, and has once again become dangerous and one of the lineups best bats. He's OK at SS and shows flash at 2B once he settles in more there.

Arraez brings something to the table the lineup lacks, that being an OB machine and high quality hitter. Look, he's never going to be great defensively wherever you put him. And I'm OK with that! He is an OK 2B who has been asked to play there, SS, 3B and OF and been largely tossed in to positions he's never played before and been OK. Some bad, some good. And the dude is a GAMER as well as a producer.  When did being a "gamer" become a bad thing? I don't trade him unless I get something back tbat I think can really help. Again, be brings something to the table the lineup lacks.

Is there a contending team that needs a SS, or believes Simmons could be a utility player that helps them get over the top? If so, trade him and get what you can. But unless Polanco moves back to SS next season, or Gordon suddenly shows ability there with opportunity, the Twins will probably need a SS in 2022. (The kids in the system just aren't ready and probably all need a season of development still). Get what you can if someone wants Simmons. Maybe you sign him again in the off-season or someone else. Lewis won't be ready and even if Palacious gets half a season at St Paul, is he going to be the real deal? He has matured WAY BEYOND from what he DIDN'T do while being in the Rays organization. But can he develop and prove himself that quickly?

Donaldson is a very different circumstance. Despite a few gaffs, his defense is still very good. After a slow start and brief injury time, he's been heating up. And he's just the type of veteran player that could carry a team for a time, including winning it all. And the problem with trading him isn't HIM, or what he might produce the next 2yrs, but his contract and his 5th season buyout. You NEVER stop believing in a veteran bat and good defensive player like Donaldson or cut short his potential impact in a lineup. What if he transitions to 1B or DH and becomes the next Cruz? 

Trade him if you can. But almost certainly, you have to toss in $ to cover the next 2yrs and his buyout. At that point, unfortunately, you only achieve a status quo of $ spent and a decent prospect. IMO, he's going to be hard to move and best case scenario might be trusting in him, hoping for the best, and moving him in 2022 or the next off-season. The financial cost will be less and it gives someone like Miranda a little more time to get ready. Or is the FO and ownership willing to eat $15-20M?

DH:

Speaking of DH, what to do with Nellie? No matter how great he has been and still is, does anyone see a re-signing of a 41yo DH for 2022? But he could be very valuable to an AL team in contention for 2021. But what kind of return does he bring for a half season? Moving him might be a gift to him to try and go out on top! Move him, absolutely, if you can get a decent young arm with some potential. Again, a AA/AAA BP type arm could be valuable and available. If you can't get that, then screw it. Keep him and let his experience, performance and leadership continue to work for the rest of 2021 on the roster.

OF:

Unless someone thinks Max is an answer and offers up something of quality, status quo here. There is no reason Kirilloff can't be part of the future OF AND 1B at this point. No need to pigeon hole him there. He and Larnach are here to stay, period, with position status fluid. Absolutely there is depth coming up and I have a feeling Refsnyder shouldn't be dismissed as a replacement for Cave. And I love the idea of Celestino and others coming up to create competition and maybe change the offensive approach with more speed. But we're good here for now. 

Rooker also fits in here as well as DH. Look, the kid has hit and produced everywhere he has played. He was a "darling" prospect always in the top 10-15 and looked good in his SSS last year. He either has a shot at OF/DH/1B soon or he should be traded to someone else individually or as part of a package. Where and when did he just become a bum or an also-ran?

STARTING PITCHING:

Get something for Happ if you can. Does someone believe in his history to offer up a decent milb arm for him?

Pineda was a smart signing and all he's done is be good/great when on the mound. Unfortunately, as is the case for most of bad luck and injury in 2021, he's on the IL right now.  Is there still value? 

BULLPEN:

Sorry if you don't like this idea, but I DON'T trade Robles. He has been everything I hoped he would be when sjgned, a proven BP arm coming off a bad season. Has he been over-extended recently? Yep! I'd keep him and re-sign. A 2022 pen STARTING with Rogers, Duffey, Robles and Alcala makes me feel pretty good.

Unless we decide we are going to "blow up" a roster that won back to back ALC titles and went to playoffs and have a system in place that has a lot of young prospects already in place for the future,  I think a re-tool is at hand. 

 

 

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Fun conversation! I am of the opinion that we should look to trade anyone who will not be on the team in 2023. (so I'm fine keeping Donaldson, Polanco, Garver, and Kepler unless someone blows us away with a trade offer).

To that point, I'm not sure why people are discussing trading Berrios/Buxton, but hoping to keep Rogers? To me, I view them all in the same tier. They all have 1.5 years left on their contracts, so I assume that Rogers will also leave with Berrios and Buxton when when their contracts are up.

Rogers will never have as much trade value as he does right now, so I think we should be actively looking trade him too. (Obviously, I'd love to keep all 3 long term, but I'm assuming all want to test free agency, and I don't want any of them to leave for nothing)

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Rather than talking about positions, how about categorizing the possible trades by contract?

a) Expiring contract--Free agent at the conclusion of 2021. Cruz, Simmons, Happ, Shoemaker, Robles, Pineda, Columé

b) Free agent in 2023--Expensive to re-sign. Trade if not extended. Buxton, Berríos, Rogers

c) Under contract but team has a likely replacement--Sanó, Polanco, Kepler, Arraez

 

I wouldn't expect all of those guys to be traded. In fact, in both b and c, probably no more than one could be dealt. It seems to me that the pieces of the roster have never fit together properly from the position player side and the pitching is simply short on talent. 

I think factors in trading players include whether they are more valuable to the current team they are on and also what the market is for a player in their position and role. Of course, the return received should be commensurate with the value they provide to the acquiring team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Rather than talking about positions, how about categorizing the possible trades by contract?

a) Expiring contract--Free agent at the conclusion of 2021. Cruz, Simmons, Happ, Shoemaker, Robles, Pineda, Columé

b) Free agent in 2023--Expensive to re-sign. Trade if not extended. Buxton, Berríos, Rogers

c) Under contract but team has a likely replacement--Sanó, Polanco, Kepler, Arraez

 

I wouldn't expect all of those guys to be traded. In fact, in both b and c, probably no more than one could be dealt. It seems to me that the pieces of the roster have never fit together properly from the position player side and the pitching is simply short on talent. 

I think factors in trading players include whether they are more valuable to the current team they are on and also what the market is for a player in their position and role. Of course, the return received should be commensurate with the value they provide to the acquiring team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that's a great way of thinking about it.

a) I want to trade everyone in group A that has ANY sort of value.

b) I am hoping to trade the three in group B (with the expectation there will be a GREAT return for each).

c) For group C, I'm fine trading any of these guys if another team makes a fair offer, but I won't sell any of them at a discount. I'm expecting these will be our veteran leaders over the next year or two, so, I'm expecting all of them (or at least most of them) to stay put.

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10 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I have an idea for a novel trade deadline thread with a few simple ground rules that will make it different from all other trade deadline threads.  The ground rules are:

  1. No bashing the front office.
  2. No bashing the manager.
  3. No belittling of other opinions.

The purpose of this thread is for presenting your ideas about what should be done between now and the trade deadline.  And to keep this from becoming another long debate about whether or not to extend Berrios and Buxton, the only assumption to follow is that both will refuse an extension and go to free agency in 2022.

So I’ll begin.  I am going to approach this on a position by position basis.  No reason for this but it helps me think.

Catcher

Leave this position alone – except if someone approaches me with an overwhelming offer for Garver.  Then trade him.

First Base

This is Kirilloff’s home.  Trade Sano for whatever you can get.  Package him with Berrios or Buxton and Kepler for the best package. 

Second Base

Arraez, Polanco, Gordon???  I would keep Arraez and Gordon, and see if anyone offers anything of value for Polanco.  He could also be part of a Buxton or Berrios package to increase the return.

Shortstop

I’m wavering on this.  If someone wants Simmons, then trade him.  Gordon or Polanco (if not traded) can fill in for the rest of 2021 and Lewis or Palacios could be the shortstop in 2022.

Third Base

Trade Donaldson for the best offer.  Arraez or (Miranda as a tryout for 2022) takes over.

Left Field

This is now Larnach’s to have and to hold from this day forward.

Center Field

If no trade partner is found, Buxton remains as the center fielder.  If he is moved, Celestino gets a four-month tryout.

Right Field

Offer Kepler as an additional piece in a major trade (see the First Base comment).  If no one wants him, then he plays right field the rest of the year.  If he is moved, Ernie de la Trinidad gets a tryout.

Designated Hitter

Say good bye to our best hitter for the last three years.  Brent Rooker is now the DH.

Starting Pitching

Trade Pineda if an offer is made.  Trade anyone for that matter.

Relief Pitching

Trade everyone that another team asks about.  The only exceptions are Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffy.  Keep both players unless a great offer is made.

Final Comment

All of the trades above are designed to bring to the Twins pitching, pitching, pitching, one or two short stops, and a center fielder.  And it frees up about $60M in salary that can be used for additional pitching, pitching, pitching and maybe a shortstop.  And yes, I realize that the remainder of 2021 might really suck, but hasn’t the first 40% already sucked?

Catcher

Agreed. Only trade Garver for an overwhelming offer. He can mix in at DH and 1B to keep his bat in the lineup when he's not catching. 

First Base
 

First one I'll disagree on. Sano has negative trade value right now. You cannot trade him for anything. You would have to include cash/prospects to move him right now. Keep him to mix in for 1B, DH, and 3B for next year. Try to fix him this year. If he cannot be fixed you buy him out after next year. Hopefully he starts hitting again for trade value next year. AK is the primary 1B but Sano needs a chance to fix himself too to rebuild trade value.

Second Base

Polanco has a lot of value because of his contract. He looks like he'll be a good defender there long term. Keep all 3 of him, Arraez, and Gordon. If someone wants to blow you away for Arraez or Polanco they can be traded but otherwise I'm keeping them.

Shortstop

Agreed. Trade Simmons if someone wants him like the Reds. Either Gordon or Polanco can play shortstop the rest of the year.

Third Base

Disagree again. Donald's contract has negative value in a trade so he's basically just a salary dump right now. No reason to trade him if you plan to compete next year. Still an overall good defender and good hitter. Miranda will be available to take over if/when he gets hurt next year at AAA. Arraez is another option to cover for him too if he gets hurt.

Left Field

Agreed. Larnach is the LF for the next 6 years.

Center Field

I'm trying to extend Buxton to keep him long term instead of trading him. Hard to trade right now with the injury and he's just so freaking talented you have to roll the dice on his health. 5/100M guaranteed with incentives for games/innings played that max out at making him one of the 10 highest paid players in MLB if he plays 150 games worth of innings is what I'd offer him. I'd be willing to go up to 7/150M guaranteed or 10/175M depending on what he is looking for in a contract (value decreases on the back end for guarentees and incentives). Celestino becomes the primary back up for him when he gets injured.

Right Field

I'm willing to move Max for a similarly good haul as Polanco for the same reason. Great value on his contract. Not just giving him away because he provides great defense and speed on the bases. If he gets moved AK becomes primary RF until Sano is traded or his contract runs out.

DH

Adios Cruz! It's been great having you. Rooker takes his roster spot as part of a DH rotation/tryout.

Starting Pitching

I'd try to move Berrios for a haul this trade deadline. His value will never be higher to trade, he's dead set on becoming a FA, the SP market for trades is very thin this year. Now is the time to pounce. Pineda also gets moved for the same reason although his return will be much smaller. I'm probably keeping Maeda unless I get blown away by an offer. His value likely isn't the best right now since he was pitching so poorly to start the year. Happ I'm dumping for whatever I can get to get him off the roster. Give Barnes or Winder a shot to see what they've got.

Relief Pitching

Shoe and Colome get dumped so we can try out other players like Jovani Moran, Yennier Cano, and possibly others for bullpen spots for next year. Don't care what I get for them. Just get rid of them. I would trade Rogers and the Doof for a good deal but I'm not expecting to get blown away for them. Should be similar to the Pressley deal as far as value (turned out to be a good trade imo). Definitely trade Robles too. Keep all of the younger guys like Alcala, Stashak, etc.
 

Summary

My goal in trades is to bring back the best talent possible regardless of level or position. I'll be targeting starting pitchers and shortstops with a maybe a relief prospect or two mixed in. I'll be targeting prospects at lower levels like Low and High A because of the increased value I can get in trades for those guys this year due to injuries and teams hanging on to their prospects at AA and above. If I trade Berrios, I'm expecting at least 1 and maybe 2 top 100 prospects depending on where they are in the top 100. Unlike most of the other guys I might trade I'll be targeting a higher upside SP prospect as high eventual replacement in the rotation that replaces Berrios if I trade him. Pearson, Gore, Baz, SWR, etc. None of these guys should be off the table in the right deal for Berrios and maybe 1 more guy like Cruz, Pineda, or a reliever thrown in.

Ideas for specific trades can be found here:https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=491

 

 

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For the right price, I'd trade anybody on this team. That being said I'm keeping Garver as backup C, 1b and DH. Let him hit.  Sano and Simmons can go.  Keep all your infield guys, except Donaldson if something looks good. Palanco/arraez/Gordon can all be traded at a later date too,  i'd trade Kep if possible,  but I'm ok keeping him.  Might be a platoon guy with your RH 4th outfielder.  Larnach is now a MLB starting OF, play him.   Buxton is the hardest guy to decide on. No one comes close to him as a real difference maker on this roster,  he is incredible. I would love to sign him,  but I think he wants FA. Sad.  

I am also a sign Berrios guy, but I think he goes to FA too. For that reason I am reluctantly trading him this trade deadline. Also sad. He is so consistent and I think will end up being worth whatever he gets because he's durable and should pitch for most of his contract.  Pinieda is fine to trade also, but I would also be open to resigning him.  Lots of open spots in rotation next year if Berrios gets traded. 

As I think we are looking more at 2023, I would trade anyone in the bullpen. There's no reason Rodgers shouldn't bring back a haul.  You can build a bullpen and it's hard to worry about it 2 years out as things change so much. A few years ago the Mariners turned over 7 guys in their bullpen mid-season and had a good relief corp.  

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