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With today being an off-day for the Twins, I have taken a longer look at the stat sheets. I think it is interesting to compare and contrast Kirilloff and Larnach. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have much in common. Both are rookie outfielders for the Minnesota Twins, both were #1 draft choices for their team and both hit left handed. They represent a big part of the future of the franchise. 

Kirilloff has been in the organization longer and was the first to be promoted to the Twins. He started the second game of the 2021 playoffs versus the Houston Astros and did get a hit. Alex began 2021 in the minor leagues, although he was recalled before play began in the AAA season. Kirilloff had a stint on the Injured List due to a wrist injury but has returned and played almost every day. 

Larnach was drafted the year after Kirilloff, but is a year older, as a former college player. He was promoted in May and has been in the lineup regularly. Trevor has played mostly left field, but has played six games in right. Kirilloff has split his time three ways, starting ten or more games at first, right field and left field. Many on the boards have suggested that Kirilloff's future is as a first baseman and I don't disagree. However, it would appear that he could be an adequate corner outfielder if someone on the roster could only handle first.

I've watched both players intently and think that the future is pretty bright for both. It seems their stat lines jump around from day to day, but currently Kirilloff has ten more plate appearances, despite a higher batting average Alex has a lower OBP. Both have five homers, but Kirilloff has only one long ball since returning from the IL. Larnach has only 12 RBI so far, a result of poor performance with runners on base, especially when they're in scoring position. 

It seems every day I change sides on which rookie will be the better player for the Twins. Today, I'm picking Kirilloff.  I think his approach and swing are less prone to long slumps. He might become a gold glover at first base and he's going to hit for some power. The wrist problem worries me more than anything. Larnach generates a lot of power and has managed to keep a decent OBP and batting average despite high strikeout numbers. I think he'll be a good outfielder, as well. Hopefully, both are perennial All-Stars. What is your opinion?

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Nice summary! There is an awful lot to like about both guys. If you made me pick a guy who I think will be better in the long haul, I would say Larnach, but all I want is for the two of them to hit 3rd and 4th (or 5th) in the lineup for the next decade.

I chose Larnach due to his approach at the plate, which I think is phenomenal, as well as Kirilloff's injury history. I would like to reserve the right to flip-flop on this a million times over the years.

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They’re both keepers, that’s for sure. They’re both getting pitched to like veterans, seeing a majority of offspeed pitches instead of fastballs. And both are producing. Very good sign that they’ll continue to adjust and thrive. 
 

I am excited to have Kirilloff at 1B and Larnach in LF full time throughout their controllable years. 
 

If I had to make a bet today who will be the better player I’ll go with Kirilloff. But it’s close. 

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Did anyone see Wander Franco's MLB debut last night? Now that's a generational talent. They don't grow on trees, you say? What about Acuna in ATL? Another recent one is Ohtani. Or Aaron Judge. Heck, even Pete Alonso was almost immediately recognizable as a game changer....are Larnach and Kirilloff in that category?

I dunno, maybe it's the Twins' lost season, but to me the jury's still out on Kirilloff and Larnach. Don't get me wrong: I'm excited that they are getting opportunities and I am glad to see them in the lineup every day. But they seem pretty raw, compared to the rookies I mentioned above and many others. To me K&L (so far) definitely look like MLB players, but I'm not quite sold on whether or not they're gonna be STARS. Still chewing on it. At this point, Luis Arraez is still the most electric rookie the Twins have called up in recent years. Just my opinion.

Can't wait to see more of K&L all season long, hope Gordon gets to play every day also.

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They are not wow players but they are very good. One thing I noticed is that both seem to have a mature approach at the plate. I remember when Buxton came up you could see the inmense talent, but he was chasing every ball down and away. Same with Rosario and a little bit less in Kepler's case. But these too players seem very professional already in their approach.

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Larnach has the better approach and his OBP will always be higher.  Kirilloff has the better swing and he makes contact more.  They are two pretty different players.  I think it is going to be close but I think the better approach will win out.  Larnach will get more pitches in the zone because he is patient and I think in the end that will pay off more than Kirilloff's contact approach.  For those that liked\miss Rosario say hello to Kirilloff. He is pretty close to the same batter and in time I bet he will be clutch like Rosario too.  Maybe Kirilloff will have more plate discipline than I think but for me the more well rounded player will find a way to be slightly better and IMO that is Larnach.

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3 minutes ago, Dman said:

Larnach has the better approach and his OBP will always be higher.  Kirilloff has the better swing and he makes contact more.  They are two pretty different players.  I think it is going to be close but I think the better approach will win out.  Larnach will get more pitches in the zone because he is patient and I think in the end that will pay off more than Kirilloff's contact approach.  For those that liked\miss Rosario say hello to Kirilloff. He is pretty close to the same batter and in time I bet he will be clutch like Rosario too.  Maybe Kirilloff will have more plate discipline than I think but for me the more well rounded player will find a way to be slightly better and IMO that is Larnach.

I disagree about Kirilloff's plate discipline. He doesn't walk much, but he doesn't chase indiscriminately either. If he doesn't get strikes to swing at the walks will come, but he's not up there to walk. Larnach swings and misses more and the K rate is pretty high. Not to say that Kirilloff doesn't strike out, but at a lower rate than Larnach.

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16 minutes ago, Dman said:

Larnach has the better approach and his OBP will always be higher.  Kirilloff has the better swing and he makes contact more.  They are two pretty different players.  I think it is going to be close but I think the better approach will win out.  Larnach will get more pitches in the zone because he is patient and I think in the end that will pay off more than Kirilloff's contact approach.  For those that liked\miss Rosario say hello to Kirilloff. He is pretty close to the same batter and in time I bet he will be clutch like Rosario too.  Maybe Kirilloff will have more plate discipline than I think but for me the more well rounded player will find a way to be slightly better and IMO that is Larnach.

I don't think I agree that Larnach has the better approach. His isoD is certainly better but not phenomenally so. On the other hand, Kirilloff has a small advantage in almost every other aspect of offense, including slugging. And let's not forget Kirilloff is younger, to boot.

Either way, they're both very close offensively.

Here are their minor league totals.

Kirilloff

Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2016 18 -2.5 Elizabethton APPY Rk MIN 55 232 216 33 66 9 1 7 33 0 1 11 32 .306 .341 .454 .794 98 5 2 0 3 0
                                                           
2018 20   2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-A MIN 130 561 512 75 178 44 7 20 101 4 3 38 86 .348 .392 .578 .970 296 10 4 0 7 4
2018 20 -2.4 Fort Myers FLOR A+ MIN 65 280 260 39 94 24 2 7 45 3 2 14 39 .362 .393 .550 .943 143 6 2 0 4 0
2018 20 -1.4 Cedar Rapids MIDW A MIN 65 281 252 36 84 20 5 13 56 1 1 24 47 .333 .391 .607 .999 153 4 2 0 3 4
2019 21 -2.7 Pensacola SOUL AA MIN 94 411 375 47 106 18 2 9 43 7 6 29 76 .283 .343 .413 .756 155 11 6 0 1 1
                                                           
2021 23 -3.8 St. Paul AAAE AAA MIN 2 6 6 2 3 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 2 .500 .500 1.500 2.000 9 0 0 0 0 0
Minors (4 seasons)   Minors   281 1210 1109 157 353 71 10 38 180 11 10 78 196 .318 .366 .503 .869 558 26 12 0 11 5

Larnach

Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2018 21   2 Teams 2 Lgs A-Rk MIN 42 177 152 27 46 13 1 5 26 3 0 21 28 .303 .390 .500 .890 76 2 2 0 2 0
2018 21 -0.4 Cedar Rapids MIDW A MIN 24 102 91 17 27 8 1 3 10 1 0 11 17 .297 .373 .505 .878 46 1 0 0 0 0
2018 21 0.7 Elizabethton APPY Rk MIN 18 75 61 10 19 5 0 2 16 2 0 10 11 .311 .413 .492 .905 30 1 2 0 2 0
2019 22   2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA MIN 127 542 476 59 147 30 1 13 66 4 1 57 124 .309 .384 .458 .842 218 12 4 0 5 4
2019 22 -1.7 Pensacola SOUL AA MIN 43 181 156 26 46 4 0 7 22 0 0 22 50 .295 .387 .455 .842 71 4 2 0 1 0
2019 22 -0.4 Fort Myers FLOR A+ MIN 84 361 320 33 101 26 1 6 44 4 1 35 74 .316 .382 .459 .842 147 8 2 0 4 4
                                                           
2021 24 -2.8 St. Paul AAAE AAA MIN 3 15 13 4 3 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 8 .231 .333 .692 1.026 9 0 0 0 0 0
Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Minors (3 seasons)   Minors   172 734 641 90 196 43 2 20 96 7 1 80 160 .306 .384 .473 .857 303 14 6 0 7 4
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2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Electric rookie. Great description. I agree on that. No electric on either Kirilloff or Larnach, but "solid" I would say for both. Kirilloff's injury history puts Larnach ahead as my pick for which one will be better long term. But agree no electric for either.

Agreed that neither guy is "electric", they aren't five tools guys and the athleticism is not off the charts. They will need to be top hitters to be stars, but I think there is a reasonable chance that they will. 

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Just now, stringer bell said:

I disagree about Kirilloff's plate discipline. He doesn't walk much, but he doesn't chase indiscriminately either. If he doesn't get strikes to swing at the walks will come, but he's not up there to walk. Larnach swings and misses more and the K rate is pretty high. Not to say that Kirilloff doesn't strike out, but at a lower rate than Larnach.

I don't completely disagree but I think OBP and OPS are on Larnach's side right now and show it will work better in the end.  I haven't had a ton of chances to watch either one so my opinion could easily be biased but when I have watched via gameday I have seen Kirilloff swing at a number of pitches low and out of the zone.  That area concerns me because Sano used to swing at that Stuff Buxton used to when he first came up as did Rosario.  I just think in the end Larnach will be more disciplined.  I guess we will have to wait and see.

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With Kirilloff, I have not been as excited about a future 1B since Hrbek.  I don't know where the let's-stick-him-in-the-outfield narrative comes from.  

Honestly, I think both Larnach and Kirilloff are future cornerstones of the team.  Neither one needs to block the other, because Kirilloff's future is not in the outfield.  If the Twins put him out there, they are just wasting time because they will not be fielding their best team.

Like it or not, Sano is not the future 1B of the team, nor is he the future of the team in general.  His presence on the roster as anything but a DH over the past few years has only complicated the roster unnecessarily.  Sano should either go or he should be their streaky DH as a last resort.  If no other team wants him, sell him to Korea.

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8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't think I agree that Larnach has the better approach. His isoD is certainly better but not phenomenally so. On the other hand, Kirilloff has a small advantage in almost every other aspect of offense, including slugging. And let's not forget Kirilloff is younger, to boot.

Either way, they're both very close offensively.

Here are their minor league totals.

Kirilloff

Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Minors (4 seasons)   Minors   281 1210 1109 157 353 71 10 38 180 11 10 78 196 .318 .366 .503 .869 558 26 12 0 11 5
2016 18 -2.5 Elizabethton APPY Rk MIN 55 232 216 33 66 9 1 7 33 0 1 11 32 .306 .341 .454 .794 98 5 2 0 3 0
                                                           
2018 20   2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-A MIN 130 561 512 75 178 44 7 20 101 4 3 38 86 .348 .392 .578 .970 296 10 4 0 7 4
2018 20 -2.4 Fort Myers FLOR A+ MIN 65 280 260 39 94 24 2 7 45 3 2 14 39 .362 .393 .550 .943 143 6 2 0 4 0
2018 20 -1.4 Cedar Rapids MIDW A MIN 65 281 252 36 84 20 5 13 56 1 1 24 47 .333 .391 .607 .999 153 4 2 0 3 4
2019 21 -2.7 Pensacola SOUL AA MIN 94 411 375 47 106 18 2 9 43 7 6 29 76 .283 .343 .413 .756 155 11 6 0 1 1
                                                           
2021 23 -3.8 St. Paul AAAE AAA MIN 2 6 6 2 3 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 2 .500 .500 1.500 2.000 9 0 0 0 0 0

Larnach

Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Minors (3 seasons)   Minors   172 734 641 90 196 43 2 20 96 7 1 80 160 .306 .384 .473 .857 303 14 6 0 7 4
2018 21   2 Teams 2 Lgs A-Rk MIN 42 177 152 27 46 13 1 5 26 3 0 21 28 .303 .390 .500 .890 76 2 2 0 2 0
2018 21 -0.4 Cedar Rapids MIDW A MIN 24 102 91 17 27 8 1 3 10 1 0 11 17 .297 .373 .505 .878 46 1 0 0 0 0
2018 21 0.7 Elizabethton APPY Rk MIN 18 75 61 10 19 5 0 2 16 2 0 10 11 .311 .413 .492 .905 30 1 2 0 2 0
2019 22   2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA MIN 127 542 476 59 147 30 1 13 66 4 1 57 124 .309 .384 .458 .842 218 12 4 0 5 4
2019 22 -1.7 Pensacola SOUL AA MIN 43 181 156 26 46 4 0 7 22 0 0 22 50 .295 .387 .455 .842 71 4 2 0 1 0
2019 22 -0.4 Fort Myers FLOR A+ MIN 84 361 320 33 101 26 1 6 44 4 1 35 74 .316 .382 .459 .842 147 8 2 0 4 4
                                                           
2021 24 -2.8 St. Paul AAAE AAA MIN 3 15 13 4 3 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 8 .231 .333 .692 1.026 9 0 0 0 0 0
Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB

Yeah they are very close all the way up and even in MLB.  Their OBP is not as different as I remembered but I am still going to go with Larnach.  Maybe it is biased by Kirilloffs poor spring or the fact he reminds me of Rosario or that his wrist seems to always be dinged up or just a feeling Larnach will be more stable but that is who I am going with. 

They have essentially been Twins to this point but I am guessing they will separate themselves in time.  It should be a fun battle to watch.

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6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

With today being an off-day for the Twins, I have taken a longer look at the stat sheets. I think it is interesting to compare and contrast Kirilloff and Larnach. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have much in common. Both are rookie outfielders for the Minnesota Twins, both were #1 draft choices for their team and both hit left handed. They represent a big part of the future of the franchise. 

Kirilloff has been in the organization longer and was the first to be promoted to the Twins. He started the second game of the 2021 playoffs versus the Houston Astros and did get a hit. Alex began 2021 in the minor leagues, although he was recalled before play began in the AAA season. Kirilloff had a stint on the Injured List due to a wrist injury but has returned and played almost every day. 

Larnach was drafted the year after Kirilloff, but is a year older, as a former college player. He was promoted in May and has been in the lineup regularly. Trevor has played mostly left field, but has played six games in right. Kirilloff has split his time three ways, starting ten or more games at first, right field and left field. Many on the boards have suggested that Kirilloff's future is as a first baseman and I don't disagree. However, it would appear that he could be an adequate corner outfielder if someone on the roster could only handle first.

I've watched both players intently and think that the future is pretty bright for both. It seems their stat lines jump around from day to day, but currently Kirilloff has ten more plate appearances, despite a higher batting average Alex has a lower OBP. Both have five homers, but Kirilloff has only one long ball since returning from the IL. Larnach has only 12 RBI so far, a result of poor performance with runners on base, especially when they're in scoring position. 

It seems every day I change sides on which rookie will be the better player for the Twins. Today, I'm picking Kirilloff.  I think his approach and swing are less prone to long slumps. He might become a gold glover at first base and he's going to hit for some power. The wrist problem worries me more than anything. Larnach generates a lot of power and has managed to keep a decent OBP and batting average despite high strikeout numbers. I think he'll be a good outfielder, as well. Hopefully, both are perennial All-Stars. What is your opinion?

I think they are both studs! I tend to favor Larnach just a little but essentially they’re equally talented. Their presence is a major bright spot in an otherwise deeply disappointing season.

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1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Agreed that neither guy is "electric", they aren't five tools guys and the athleticism is not off the charts. They will need to be top hitters to be stars, but I think there is a reasonable chance that they will. 

I think a reasonable ceiling for both would be something like a Michael Cuddyer type. Nothing to sneeze at whatsoever. I also think that Bobby Kielty comparison is a realistic floor.

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4 hours ago, bighat said:

I think a reasonable ceiling for both would be something like a Michael Cuddyer type. Nothing to sneeze at whatsoever. I also think that Bobby Kielty comparison is a realistic floor.

Cuddy is my all-time favorite Twin, more for what he has done off the field than on. I would hope that one or both of K & L far exceed what Cuddyer was able to contribute.

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You gotta remember that both pretty much missed a full year of play and have been thrust into the majors and holding their own. Yes, I can see Kepler (who is just slumping soooooo badly, and the guy works works and listens) Buxton and Larnach holding the outfield, and Kirilloff at first with Sano at DH. Not sure if Rooker can fit into the picture or if his ship ahs sailed with the Twins and he is destined to be the next Mike Restovich or Paul Sorrento.

 

Both are playing well that a trip to St. Paul would be out of the question, unless they went into a terrible slump. And then, they will know what to work on and get back into the lineup come September to start big with the Twins in 2022.

 

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22 minutes ago, bighat said:

I think a reasonable ceiling for both would be something like a Michael Cuddyer type. Nothing to sneeze at whatsoever. I also think that Bobby Kielty comparison is a realistic floor.

I think I they both have ceilings a fair amount higher than Cuddyer but if they both turn out like Cuddy, that’s a big win for the Twins.

Hrbek is probably a better ceiling comparison for Kirilloff. 

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12 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think I they both have ceilings a fair amount higher than Cuddyer but if they both turn out like Cuddy, that’s a big win for the Twins.

Totally agree, if we have two Cuddy's in our lineup for years to come we'd all consider ourselves very lucky. Max Kepler may be another realistic comp for Larnach?

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I like them both, but I think they’re just different kinds of hitters. Kirilloff is much more in the Hrbek mode, a high contact hitter with some power but more doubles power than home run power and a quality glove at first base. Larnach has more plate discipline with more power but wont hit for as high an average. I could see Kiriloff consistently hitting .280+ or even .300+ with 20 to 25 home runs a year. I see Larnach as more a .260-.280 hitter who walks more, and hits 30+ home runs a year. I would love to see a future lineup with Buxton hitting second, Kiriloff third, a solid right handed hitter hitting fourth  ( Cruz now, Donaldson after Cruz is traded?), and Larnach fifth.

As to the poster who suggested that Larnach’s ceiling might be Kepler, I hope to God you’re wrong. Frankly, I think Kirilloff and Larnach are both already better than Kepler are at the plate. A lot better. Kepler is definitely a better fielder but apparently they don’t want to put him in centerfield so that really limits his value. I think it will be interesting decision as to whether Kirilloff stays at first base because if he does, there’s a place in right field for guy like Kepler to keep his glove in the lineup hitting sixth or seventh where he belongs. If not, he probably goes to the Bench as the fourth outfielder.

 

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Marlins era Yelich is who Kirilloff reminds me of. I'd love him to turn into first-couple-years-in-Milwaukee Yelich, but I don't know that he gets to consistent 35+ HR power. Think Yelich was a little more patient, but Kirilloff just reminds me of Yelich in his natural ability to put the barrel on the ball and spray it all over the park. I wouldn't be shocked with a borderline MVP season out of him some year where he hits .300 with 35 bombas, but I think he's consistently at .280-.300 with 20-25 HRs. Which is absolutely good enough to be the 3 hole hitter for a championship Twins team.

Larnach just feels like a man obsessed with hitting, and, given his physical gifts, I find it hard to bet against those guys. Have read many scouting reports that complain about his inability to pull the ball with power in college and his early minor league days, but I'd say he's showing he's made that adjustment pretty well. I don't know that I have a player that he really reminds me of, but I just find it very hard to doubt guys who have Larnach's ability to barrel the ball and have shown the ability to adjust and improve from the time they got to college to their time in the minors to the start of their big league careers. Playing in the majors is all about adjusting to the adjustments made against you and he looks to be able to adjust.

I don't know that I could pick 1 over the other and I'm glad to have them both and hope they anchor the Twins lineup for the next decade.

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On 6/23/2021 at 9:37 AM, stringer bell said:

 

It seems every day I change sides on which rookie will be the better player for the Twins. Today, I'm picking Kirilloff.  

That’s a good problem to have

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 6/23/2021 at 4:39 PM, Dman said:

Yeah they are very close all the way up and even in MLB.  Their OBP is not as different as I remembered but I am still going to go with Larnach.  Maybe it is biased by Kirilloffs poor spring or the fact he reminds me of Rosario or that his wrist seems to always be dinged up or just a feeling Larnach will be more stable but that is who I am going with. 

They have essentially been Twins to this point but I am guessing they will separate themselves in time.  It should be a fun battle to watch.

Revisiting this topic at the All-Star break. In nearly the same number of plate appearances, their OPS are separated by 10 points. Larnach had a brutal series versus Detroit, but still is above average as a hitter. Including his weekend snag, he has struck out 69 times, almost a third of the time. He walks more than Kirilloff, but his on-base is lifted most by the six HBP he has had in 210 plate appearances. I think Larnach will be fine, but if a couple of outfielders are activated, I wonder if the Twins might send him down. 

Both Kirilloff and Larnach both made outstanding defensive plays yesterday. It is nice to see them play well in the field. The Twins don't need more players whose best position is DH

 

 

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52 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Revisiting this topic at the All-Star break. In nearly the same number of plate appearances, their OPS are separated by 10 points. Larnach had a brutal series versus Detroit, but still is above average as a hitter. Including his weekend snag, he has struck out 69 times, almost a third of the time. He walks more than Kirilloff, but his on-base is lifted most by the six HBP he has had in 210 plate appearances. I think Larnach will be fine, but if a couple of outfielders are activated, I wonder if the Twins might send him down. 

Both Kirilloff and Larnach both made outstanding defensive plays yesterday. It is nice to see them play well in the field. The Twins don't need more players whose best position is DH

 

 

Yeah Kirilloff has had the upper hand recently.  Not sure if they found a good weakness to exploit with Larnach but he has not looked good recently.  Still like both of them and they both are doing well and seem likely to maintain their current numbers.  Hoping they both dual each other and push each other into the 900 OPS range that would be cool. 😎

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