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Where is Luis Arraez' future position?


1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

While your general point is accurate, Kirilloff was drafted by the interim front office that preceded Falvey and Levine.

Actually TR was still here for the 2016 draft -- he wasn't fired until July. He got to stew a few months in the "total system failure." :)

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16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think there is a generally held idea that you take a bat over an arm in the draft if they're graded similarly. Hitters tend to be more likely to become the player you think they will be. I mean that list of 6 pitchers is not exactly a who's who of big league pitching talent. Cleveland has built their pitching pipeline off non-first round picks. deGrom was a 9th round pick. Plenty of examples of not needing to spend a 1st to get a big time arm. 

The Rooker and Sabato picks are questionable ones to me. They were incredible in college, but they're basically DHs only so need to be Cruz in order to be a good pick so you don't leave yourself much room for error there. I think Cavaco is a different type of pick than that. Same with Lewis. I loved the Larnach pick at the time and he's showing to be quite talented and I see him as different than Rooker and Sabato in that he's a legit OFer (not gold glove, but he's an average defender) and he just seems like a professional hitter who's born with contact skills and a work ethic that makes him rare. 

In order to say Rooker and Sabato were bad picks, or any of the others, you have to go back to the time they were made and see who else was available and how they were perceived at the time. It's quite possible the Twins didn't have any arms rated better than the bats they took. It could be they are a "best player available" type FO. Which I'd argue is the best way to go in baseball as there's typically at least 3 years between a player being drafted and debuting in the majors. And those are the start players. SO your team could look very different by then so drafting for need isn't a great idea. But they've taken 2 shortstops and that's certainly a positional need for this team moving forward. Rooker and Sabato are "interesting" picks, but the other 3 firsts they've made don't look like ridiculous picks to me.

Agreed, and it is specifically the Rooker and Sabato picks I question - also the Cavaco pick duplicated the Lewis pick in my opinion.  

Pitching wins championships just like Quarterbacks win championships. Look at the fever pitch every year in the NFL draft to find the quarterback. I understand pitching is found everywhere in the draft, just like Tom Brady was found near the end of his draft - but it would seem a prudent venture to take a starting pitching prospect near the top of EVERY draft. 

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2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

This is one of several examples showing the flaws of this roster. I’d like to see Falvey and Levine make a decision on Polanco or Arraez at 2B then trade the other one in the winter. This also needs to happen with the gluttony of bat-first corner OF/1B in the organization. 

I agree somebody has to go.  Both players have lots of years of control so the FO is unlikely to trade either one but IMO Arraez has his flaws.  He doesn't hit for power, He can't play Short and he doesn't run all that well.  Polanco does have some power, he can play short in a pinch and he runs slightly better than average.  Even Gordon has a better arm to play third and he can play center field as well as short in a pinch.  It feels like Arraez is the odd man out when it comes to physical tools and versatility. 

Keep all three you say for depth if nothing else?  The other issue is after this year the Twins need to add Lewis to the 40 man.  Palacios is playing well enough at short that they likely need to add him as well and then there is Wander Javier whose bat has started to come around and shown some power so they might need to add him as well and to top it off they might need to sign a veteran SS next year as well.  There isn't room on the 40 man for all of these players next year.  You either need to risk losing some younger players to rule V or find a way to trade some talent.  Lewis, Palacios, and Javier are all shortstops and can play all three infield positions and they all run better than Arraez and project for more power.

While I don't like the idea of trading Arraez because he is one of my favorite players I think if the Twins can find the right deal they should do it.  If other teams aren't interested then I would look at trading Polanco as well but would want a greater return as he can be considered a legit Shortstop.

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13 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree somebody has to go.  Both players have lots of years of control so the FO is unlikely to trade either one but IMO Arraez has his flaws.  He doesn't hit for power, He can't play Short and he doesn't run all that well.  Polanco does have some power, he can play short in a pinch and he runs slightly better than average.  Even Gordon has a better arm to play third and he can play center field as well as short in a pinch.  It feels like Arraez is the odd man out when it comes to physical tools and versatility. 

Keep all three you say for depth if nothing else?  The other issue is after this year the Twins need to add Lewis to the 40 man.  Palacios is playing well enough at short that they likely need to add him as well and then there is Wander Javier whose bat has started to come around and shown some power so they might need to add him as well and to top it off they might need to sign a veteran SS next year as well.  There isn't room on the 40 man for all of these players next year.  You either need to risk losing some younger players to rule V or find a way to trade some talent.  Lewis, Palacios, and Javier are all shortstops and can play all three infield positions and they all run better than Arraez and project for more power.

While I don't like the idea of trading Arraez because he is one of my favorite players I think if the Twins can find the right deal they should do it.  If other teams aren't interested then I would look at trading Polanco as well but would want a greater return as he can be considered a legit Shortstop.

If no other team wants him....that says a lot, imo. Every other backup seems to have a more well-rounded set of skills. But, not every team is flush with guys like this.....so he should have value. 

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He is at 3B tonight. I've liked him there, and I like him as a leadoff hitter. He has a lot of value I think. As noted in previous posts, we do have depth coming, and trading from depth is smart. Something has to give in order for us to get.

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4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If no other team wants him....that says a lot, imo. Every other backup seems to have a more well-rounded set of skills. But, not every team is flush with guys like this.....so he should have value. 

I stated that poorly by not "wanting" what I really meant was not paying a fair price value wise to add him.  It would likely take a top prospect to move him as he is a proven MLB hitter with 4 years of control left.  It would take a big trade to move him and as we just discussed he has limitation's.  So not certain teams will give as much as needed for the Twins to do a deal.  Whereas they might for Polanco because he has more versatility.  

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Has shifting changed the defensive spectrum? How about the increase in fly balls or fewer balls in play as a result of strike outs? Where does second base fit now? When Bill James presented the defensive spectrum 35 or so years ago defense at second base was more important than CF. I wonder if it is on par with a corner OF or even less important today.

Yes. Arraez is a poor fielding 2B. How much does it matter? He is passable at 2B and 3B. His bat needs to be in the lineup most days.

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18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Since 2010 they've taken Alex Wimmers, Hudson Boyd, Jose Berrios, Luke Bard, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay in the 1st/Supplemental round.

Ouch, did you have to remind us of those picks?  Yes, probably more first rounders aren't going to make it than do.  I recall that Wimmers had injuries, but one of six?  

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1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Has shifting changed the defensive spectrum? How about the increase in fly balls or fewer balls in play as a result of strike outs? Where does second base fit now? When Bill James presented the defensive spectrum 35 or so years ago defense at second base was more important than CF. I wonder if it is on par with a corner OF or even less important today.

Yes. Arraez is a poor fielding 2B. How much does it matter? He is passable at 2B and 3B. His bat needs to be in the lineup most days.

In 2020 (SSS), when he played only second base, Arraez' defensive numbers were above average. I don't see any reason why a 24-year old player can't improve on that. I agree that his bat does belong in the lineup most days. 

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Is it typical for a 2B to improve with age when it was their primary position in the minors? The footwork, the first step, the arm required to get minor league runners out isn’t that different in the majors.

I suppose it was encouraging that his OOA was -2 last year in a shorter season. I hope the Twins see him for the player he is rather than hope on improvement. He is a valuable player even fielding his position in the bottom third at 2B. I think his play at 3B has a better chance for improvement given his lack of time at the position. Perhaps he can approach average if that spot. Even if he can’t how much does it matter when so few groundballs are put in play compared to a few decades ago?

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10 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Is it typical for a 2B to improve with age when it was their primary position in the minors? The footwork, the first step, the arm required to get minor league runners out isn’t that different in the majors.

I suppose it was encouraging that his OOA was -2 last year in a shorter season. I hope the Twins see him for the player he is rather than hope on improvement. He is a valuable player even fielding his position in the bottom third at 2B. I think his play at 3B has a better chance for improvement given his lack of time at the position. Perhaps he can approach average if that spot. Even if he can’t how much does it matter when so few groundballs are put in play compared to a few decades ago?

This feels correct to me. Luis Arraez is not a huge, lumbering guy but his sprint speed is the 36th percentile (Sano is 39th percentile by comparison). Arraez is a slow dude and I suspect that hurts him a lot more at second base than it does third.

Of course, his arm also isn't very good, which doesn't help his case at third. Either way, if he's going to play a position for the Twins in 2021, I'd like to see him get a lot of reps at third base, which lets Gordon also get a lot more reps.*

*all of this assumes Josh Donaldson will remain perpetually injured

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I don't know for sure Arraez actually HAS a future position. I know he's an easy guy to like, but is he actually any good?

It's all SSS, but 2021 marks another significant drop-off in his offense. After a fall into into mid. 700s last year, He's barely into the. 700s for OPS this year.

Maybe he's really the .800 OPS hitter-built off singles and walks-that we saw in 2019. Then again, that's a tough way to make a living, and we've seen lots of guys have trouble duplicating 2019.

Coupled with questions about defense, no apparent place to play him, and no speed at all...I'd try to turn him into pitching.

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9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't know for sure Arraez actually HAS a future position. I know he's an easy guy to like, but is he actually any good?

It's all SSS, but 2021 marks another significant drop-off in his offense. After a fall into into mid. 700s last year, He's barely into the. 700s for OPS this year.

Maybe he's really the .800 OPS hitter-built off singles and walks-that we saw in 2019. Then again, that's a tough way to make a living, and we've seen lots of guys have trouble duplicating 2019.

To me, the jury is still very much out on Arraez's 2021. He was obviously injured when he went into that tailspin and since returning from the IL, has done this:

Luis Arraez Batting Gamelogs for Career Games 164 to 171

Date Tm G GS Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip aLI WPA acLI cWPA RE24 DFS(DK) DFS(FD)
Jun 14 to Jun 22, 2021 MIN 8 6 5-3 30 27 4 9 1 1 0 3 2 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .333 .367 .444 .811 .360 1.19 0.214 .16 0.01% -0.34 52.00 65.30
per 162 games 162 122   608 547 82 183 21 21 0 61 41 0 61 0 0 21 0 0 0 0             4.4   0.3% -6.8 1054 1323

As for his position (in)flexibility, I pretty much agree. I'd like to see him get a shot at third not because I expect him to be good but because I think he might be least bad there (given that the Twins have no space in the OF for him any time soon).

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On 6/21/2021 at 1:38 PM, In My La Z boy said:

And we take Cavaco instead of pitching. Is there another team in baseball that has gone this long without taking pitching in round 1? Who was the last starting pitching prospect we drafted #1 - Tyler Jay? Anyone else recently, like in the last 10 years? 

I hated the Jay pick.  The one before that was Kohl Stewart,  High school pitchers are risky but we really wiffed on those two.  Berrios was a comp pick.  The Cavaco pick was suspect but the next pitcher taken (Jackson Rutledge) has an ERA over 12 at high A.  However, two of the three guys taken just after Rutledge are doing quite well. 

Where Arraez is concerned.  I like him but I am trading him if I get value.  We have a bunch of guys that can play 2nd.  Polanco has looked good there and we have depth in the system.  This team is ripe for a shakeup.

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28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I hated the Jay pick.  The one before that was Kohl Stewart,  High school pitchers are risky but we really wiffed on those two.  Berrios was a comp pick.

It's picking nits a bit but Jay was drafted as a college reliever. It was during that weird stretch of a couple drafts where the Twins drafted college relievers in an attempt to convert them to starters, none of which worked out to my knowledge.

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I'm glad the Twins are keeping Gordon for now. Just wish he would get some at bats, which could happen if the Twins movie SImmons. If Gordon can basically hit like Arraez, and also be a threat on the base paths, he brings something lacking to the Twins team.

 

I do picture Arraez being that jack-of-all-trades. Like Tovar was for the sixties Twins. If there is a place for him on the roster. He does thrive when he plays regularly, I wish he was a better choice for short than Polanco, another guy who may be fighting for a utility role.

 

Royce Lewis needs to work in someplace. Donaldson ahs a big contract and gives you punch. The joy right now of Arraez (and Gordon) is that they can play in the outfield in a pinch, well.

 

But with all of Luis' goodness, taking pitches, drawing walks, putting the ball in play, big enthusiasm to be playing on the field...he always faces the fact that there is someone on the team equal or even better in most of the offense categories. He is great to have when someone goes down with an injury, but you can always find someone else to play everyday.

 

 

 

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