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Who has been the Twins' worst pitcher this season?


Woof, this is a hard one  

66 members have voted

  1. 1. Who has been the Twins' worst pitcher this season?

    • Matt Shoemaker
      17
    • JA Happ
      1
    • Randy Dobnak
      7
    • Alex Colome
      10
    • Yes
      31


10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

While Shoemaker has objectively been a worse pitcher, I'm more disappointed in Happ. He should have been a pretty reliable 4/5 and being paid moderately well for it. Instead, we got:

Dumpster Fire GIF by MOODMAN

Pure speculation of course, but perhaps these fringy guys were leaning on certain sticky substances which are suddenly verboten.  

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Just now, Dodecahedron said:

Pure speculation of course, but perhaps these fringy guys were leaning on certain sticky substances which are suddenly verboten.  

I don’t know what to think about that, really. I doubt the Twins are cheating less than other teams and only in the past two weeks have players appeared to lessened use of substances. That doesn’t explain why the Twins were so bad before two weeks ago.

I often wonder if there’s something about the Twins pitching approach and the new ball that is a partial cause for this complete collapse. 

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3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don’t know what to think about that, really. I doubt the Twins are cheating less than other teams and only in the past two weeks have players appeared to lessened use of substances. That doesn’t explain why the Twins were so bad before two weeks ago.

I often wonder if there’s something about the Twins pitching approach and the new ball that is a partial cause for this complete collapse. 

With the way this played out -- a Twins player going public to call out other pitchers -- I wonder if the Twins prohibited this earlier in the year, if not before the season started, and that player was speaking out of frustration over that.  But yeah, Twins players were certainly not doing anything that other teams were not doing.  

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I'm DISAPPOINTED in them all, but if we are voting for WORST pitcher as the poll states, I'm going with Dobnak considering he has been the most consistently terrible pitcher. He's had maybe one start and a couple of relief outing that weren't abject failures. Hard to believe, but even Shoemaker managed to eek out four or five usable starts.

And somehow oddly, out of the four candidates, three of whom were free agents, Dobnak currently holds the contract most difficult to be separated from.

But that's just my vote amongst the four listed candidates. Based on recent pitch usage, I can only assume the team feels Taylor Rogers is the worst pitcher this year.

 

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I posted this in another article, but I think it bears repeating here.  

Coming into the season, I felt that the Twins with Maeda, Berrios, Pineada, Happ, Shoemaker, Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak had one of the deepest starting rotation in all of baseball.  That is 8 deep.

I don't know of anyone who predicted that 7 of the 8 would have MAJOR issues, strongly contributing to this train wreck of a season.

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3 minutes ago, puckstopper1 said:

I posted this in another article, but I think it bears repeating here.  

Coming into the season, I felt that the Twins with Maeda, Berrios, Pineada, Happ, Shoemaker, Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak had one of the deepest starting rotation in all of baseball.  That is 8 deep.

I don't know of anyone who predicted that 7 of the 8 would have MAJOR issues, strongly contributing to this train wreck of a season.

I thought that Berrios, Maeda, Pineda were going to be outstanding.  I thought Happ and Dobnak would be average-to-good.  I said once that I thought this was going to be the best Twins starting rotation in 30 years.  Ha.

 

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I would vote Shoemaker with Happ just behind then Colome. Dobnack was ruined early in the season and never got into any rhythm. Shoe can't go more than 3 innings-if that far. Colome has been better lately while Happ has been the worst recently. But others haven't been all that great either. Maeda could be chosen but was over his head last year. Berrios has never taken the top spot. And don't get me started on the ?offense?

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I picked colome only because he was supposed to sort of be a stopper in the bullpen and hasn't stopped anything.  What's worse than giving up the lead late in the game.  I guess it's not much different with shoemaker because he gives up the leads early in the games, but it's more disheartening when it's blown late in games so I picked colome

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5djige.jpg

But game-thread joking aside, picking the worst pitcher in 2021 is surprisingly tough among these four contenders.  I think I let Happ off the hook first, as having thrown more decent innings than any of the others.  "Worst" might mean least effective, on a per-batter basis - in that case I'd give it to Dobnak among those 4, although in very short sample you have to consider also Derek Law and Brandon Waddell for their brief reigns of terror.  In terms of slow plodding damage to the team, you can look at the cumulative effect of inning after putrid inning from Shoemaker.  In terms of badly timed meltdowns, it's hard to top Colome for the clutch badness.  I think it's completely fair to punt on this question and just say it's all of them - haven't seen this much simultaneous ineptitude in a long while.

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7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense. What about these stats tell you an epic implosion was looming?

Season Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB vFA ERA xERA FIP xFIP WAR
2013 LAA MLB 26 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 9.00 3.60 0.00 .167 100.0% 41.7% 0.0% 91.5 0.00   2.25 3.34 0.1
2014 LAA MLB 27 16 4 0 27 20 136.0 8.21 1.59 0.93 .286 77.5% 41.2% 9.4% 91.3 3.04   3.26 3.28 2.1
2015 LAA MLB 28 7 10 0 25 24 135.1 7.71 2.33 1.60 .285 74.1% 39.2% 14.0% 91.1 4.46 3.88 4.59 4.16 0.7
2016 LAA MLB 29 9 13 0 27 27 160.0 8.04 1.69 1.01 .315 74.2% 39.8% 10.3% 92.4 3.88 4.13 3.52 3.86 3.5
2017 LAA MLB 30 6 3 0 14 14 77.2 8.00 3.24 1.74 .276 76.2% 38.5% 14.6% 91.9 4.52 4.87 5.13 4.98 0.2
2018 LAA MLB 31 2 2 0 7 7 31.0 9.58 2.90 0.87 .313 64.2% 43.5% 10.3% 91.4 4.94 5.44 3.35 3.64 0.7
2019 TOR MLB 32 3 0 0 5 5 28.2 7.53 2.83 0.94 .183 87.2% 51.4% 11.1% 90.4 1.57 5.31 3.95 4.46 0.6
2020 TOR MLB 33 0 1 0 6 6 28.2 8.16 2.83 2.51 .194 75.8% 48.1% 29.6% 92.3 4.71 5.10 5.95 4.14 -0.1
2021 MIN MLB 34 2 8 0 13 11 54.2 6.09 3.79 1.98 .298 58.0% 44.4% 18.2% 91.8 7.57 5.76 6.03 5.29 -0.4

The fourth column? :) 

There must be some data on aging and chronically hurt starters, combined with some other variable or two, that signalled flashing red warning lights to other teams.

The problem with a “no risk” late winter 2 million signing like this is that the abstract plan on paper becomes very real when the games get started and batters start stepping into the box and clobbering pitches. Now we are losing a lot of games early. Now what do we do?

Ought to have just started with Dobnak in the rotation?

also I haven’t decided who to vote for yet

Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco
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23 minutes ago, ashbury said:

although in very short sample you have to consider also Derek Law and Brandon Waddell for their brief reigns of terror

This half-joking poll actually became quite difficult to put together when I was determining whether to include those who didn't hang around long but really left their mark.

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Shoemaker was not a worthwhile gamble, but the others were ok as far as throwing dice. I'm a little surprised that Colome's lucky charm was lost and both Happ and Dobnak seemed like reasonable number five pitchers. This stretch has tested these pitchers' confidence in themselves and baseball is really tough when doubt finds your talent. My take is that they are doing their very best but time caught them. I would like to see a few of the younger pitchers who we are told are not ready. Sometimes opportunity comes before the model design, yet reality exists.

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This half-joking poll actually became quite difficult to put together when I was determining whether to include those who didn't hang around long but really left their mark.

You could probably include just about every pitcher on the major league roster.

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Maeda and Colome. Dobnak doesn’t factor nearly as much (innings-wise) if Maeda is solid...and Happ and Shoemaker aren’t that far from what I expected. To be sure, they’ve been very bad #4/5’s instead of standard bad 4/5’s.

And Colome. Well, Colome.

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On 6/16/2021 at 12:02 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I’m leaning pretty hard toward trading Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers and fielding offers for Maeda and Donaldson at this point.

If the front office does things aggressively and makes smart choices, this team could be a contender again as early as 2023.

The FO would need to make massive improvements in evaluation & development. Like almost overnight. Also a good amount of luck/favorable bounces would have to go their way.

If this team is going full fire sale at the deadline (I hope not) then I think it's more likely we see a minimum of 2-3 years, of pretty bleak baseball and I'd consider that a conservative estimate. I'm not saying it's impossible to contend in '23 but we're talking about replacing an entire starting staff + 2/3 of a pen, and that's only one side of the talent turnover. 

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22 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Maeda and Colome. Dobnak doesn’t factor nearly as much (innings-wise) if Maeda is solid...and Happ and Shoemaker aren’t that far from what I expected. To be sure, they’ve been very bad #4/5’s instead of standard bad 4/5’s.

And Colome. Well, Colome.

I feel like this is more "disappointing" than "worst".  Cuz Shoemaker is the only non-sarcastic answer to this poll.  Definitely not Maeda.

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22 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I feel like this is more "disappointing" than "worst".  Cuz Shoemaker is the only non-sarcastic answer to this poll.  Definitely not Maeda.

Who do you think has impacted the success (lack thereof) the club more? The guy who was expected to consistently pitch effectively deep into his starts at the top of the rotation, who has done the exact opposite...when he hasn’t been totally absent? Or the number 5 starter who was expected to be iffy, and has been spectacularly bad?

Yes, Shoemaker has been a worse pitcher, not surprising in that if you predicted a number 5 to be the worst at the beginning of a season, you’d be right more often than not.

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4 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Who do you think has impacted the success (lack thereof) the club more? The guy who was expected to consistently pitch effectively deep into his starts at the top of the rotation, who has done the exact opposite...when he hasn’t been totally absent? Or the number 5 starter who was expected to be iffy, and has been spectacularly bad?

Yes, Shoemaker has been a worse pitcher, not surprising in that if you predicted a number 5 to be the worst at the beginning of a season, you’d be right more often than not.

Yeah, the Twins have been hurt by Maeda's regression, but that's not what this poll is about.  It's a celebration of awfulness and Maeda hasn't been anywhere close to awful.  Not by 2021 Twins standards

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On 6/17/2021 at 2:07 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

The FO would need to make massive improvements in evaluation & development. Like almost overnight. Also a good amount of luck/favorable bounces would have to go their way.

If this team is going full fire sale at the deadline (I hope not) then I think it's more likely we see a minimum of 2-3 years, of pretty bleak baseball and I'd consider that a conservative estimate. I'm not saying it's impossible to contend in '23 but we're talking about replacing an entire starting staff + 2/3 of a pen, and that's only one side of the talent turnover. 

So, you are saying we completely suck with Berrios and Buxton on the team now and there is no hope because the FO cant evaluate players but we should not retool or rebuild because we can compete in 2022 if we keep Buxton & Berrios.

I agree with Brock.  Yes, over the next year and half they need to establish at least two starters and 3 would be huge.  If they establish even 2, they would have considerable payroll resource to sign a very good free agent SP.  If they fail to develop starting pitching they are not contending regardless of if the trade Berrios / Buxton and the deadline.  They are not contending anytime soon IMO unless the pitching prospects pan out.  So, the only real question is will they be better as a result of acquiring assets for Buxton and Berrios now.  While we don't know with certainty just like we don't know if a big free agent signing will pan out, we can say our chances of adding a player or two that will contribute significantly are reasonable good.  Do we want to bild a contender or suck every win out of an 84 win team?

It's also possible they could add a college arm in the upcoming draft that could be here by 2023.  Then, there is the possibility they get something back by trading Cruz / Robles / Pineda.  It also would not hurt if the make a smart signing of a lower cost SP.  I thought Tiajuan Walker was a good bet because of his age and upside but he excited very people here.

Let's keep in mind that the money spent to extend Berrios could/should be spent on another SP.  It won't be Berrios but Berrios is not exactly the guy who gives us an advantage in game 1 of a playoff series.  

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Colome. We expected him to be the closer allowing Duffey, Rogers and Robles to be set-up guys. There is NO REASON to have him on the staff just to pitch an inning in games we have already lost. That's a spot for a Rule 5 pickup (who can hopefully pitch multiple innings).

 

Shoemaker, well, we expected something rather than absolutely nothing. 

 

Dobnak I can cut a little slack. He should never have been kept as a bullpen arm. Send him to the minors TO START period. Especially now. Why is he on the roster. He should be back at work on a regular basis getting his 80-100 pitches a game and figuring out how to control his...whatever.,..in St. Paul.

 

I was hoping more from Griffin Jax. I would actually like to see him given the opportunity to start a couple of games. See if he can do better from the beginning of a game rather than get typed as a potential long-relief guy. He's another guy that if the Twins would waiver him off the 40-man, I expect he would be picked up by someone else...now.

 

 

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