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Who has been the Twins' worst pitcher this season?


Woof, this is a hard one  

66 members have voted

  1. 1. Who has been the Twins' worst pitcher this season?

    • Matt Shoemaker
      17
    • JA Happ
      1
    • Randy Dobnak
      7
    • Alex Colome
      10
    • Yes
      31


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Shoemaker is the worst statistically. But he wasn’t signed to be a mid rotation starter like Happ, or a high leverage late inning arm like Colomé. 
 

My vote is Colomé. He was supposed to be the replacement for Trevor May. We paid him $5 million and he’s been a mop up guy since the middle of May. Total disaster. 

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They've all been brutal and contributed heavily to the death spiral this season has become.  And they've all contributed in their own way, so that's neat.  So, to me, the only logical answer is "yes".

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43 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Under the banner of "expectations versus results" - I'll go off the board and take Kenta Maeda. Went from Cy Young to just Sigh

If we use ZiPS preseason projections as a proxy for expectations, Brock's list is still pretty accurate although Maeda would be up there. Here's a table of current 2021 fWAR totals, compared to their preseason projected ZiPS WAR (prorated to their current number of innings):

Pitcher Actual fWAR ZiPS fWAR Difference
Randy Dobnak -0.5 0.38 -0.88
Matt Shoemaker -0.4 0.47 -0.87
J.A. Happ 0.2 0.91 -0.71
Kenta Maeda 0.3 0.97 -0.67
Alex Colome -0.4 0.21 -0.61
Michael Pineda 0.5 0.87 -0.37
Tyler Duffey 0 0.24 -0.24
Derek Law -0.2 0.03 -0.23
Jorge Alcala -0.2 0.00 -0.20
Jose Berrios 1.3 1.47 -0.17
Juan Minaya -0.1 0.00 -0.10
Hansel Robles 0.1 0.16 -0.06
Shaun Anderson 0 0.04 -0.04
Devin Smeltzer 0 0.03 -0.03
Lewis Thorpe 0.2 0.06 0.14
Cody Stashak 0.2 0.05 0.15
Caleb Thielbar 0.3 0.11 0.19
Taylor Rogers 0.8 0.45 0.35
TOTAL 2.1 6.47 -4.37

Of course, WAR is a counting stat and it's going to have a higher scale for starters than relievers, so I think it's far to rank Colomé as worse than Maeda.

On the flip side, Rogers has been excellent, and Berrios has been as advertised without missing any starts. (And Stashak has a massive ERA-FIP difference!)

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ZiPS predicted that for Shoemaker?  Hilarious.  Now I'm seeing how the Twins got duped.

People have to remember these moments when these predictive systems are so far off, and take that knowledge the next step and question everything they see there.  It only took one eye to look at Shoemaker's history and predict what was going to happen.

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6 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

ZiPS predicted that for Shoemaker?  Hilarious.  Now I'm seeing how the Twins got duped.

People have to remember these moments when these predictive systems are so far off, and take that knowledge the next step and question everything they see there.  It only took one eye to look at Shoemaker's history and predict what was going to happen.

So, if the eye test is wrong (which it often is) and stats are wrong (which they often are).....what is the right way? It is pretty hard to be 100% right about the future........

As for the poll, Shoemaker, and it isn't close (though Dobnak is right there). Signing him after signing Happ was a massive sign this team didn't think they were really contenders, imo.

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6 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

ZiPS predicted that for Shoemaker?  Hilarious.  Now I'm seeing how the Twins got duped.

People have to remember these moments when these predictive systems are so far off, and take that knowledge the next step and question everything they see there.  It only took one eye to look at Shoemaker's history and predict what was going to happen.

What's so crazy about predicting less than half a win for Shoemaker? Before this season, he had posted one negative fWAR season, which was 2020 in just 28 IP and that was *barely* negative at -0.1.

Literally everything has gone sideways for Shoemaker to an extent that was rather unreasonable to predict. His walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down (in 2021, not sure how that's possible) but his velo hasn't declined. He is just straight-up terrible now for reasons that aren't entirely obvious.

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14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, if the eye test is wrong (which it often is) and stats are wrong (which they often are).....what is the right way? It is pretty hard to be 100% right about the future........

As for the poll, Shoemaker, and it isn't close (though Dobnak is right there). Signing him after signing Happ was a massive sign this team didn't think they were really contenders, imo.

I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. I think the Twins spent right up to their payroll limit, which is why they ended up with Shoemaker. According to Spotrac, the Twins are 16th in payroll this season. Maybe they should be more toward 12-ish (IMO, where they should aim for while in contention) but 16th isn't unreasonable by any means.

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Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. I think the Twins spent right up to their payroll limit, which is why they ended up with Shoemaker. According to Spotrac, the Twins are 16th in payroll this season. Maybe they should be more toward 12-ish (IMO, where they should aim for while in contention) but 16th isn't unreasonable by any means.

I come to it thinking that a contending team can't have 2 number 5 starters in their rotation. If they really thought a contending team could have both Happ and Shoemaker make at least 10 starts, and likely more, I guess my confidence in them should be even lower. I don't expect people to agree......but I just don't see how that's realistic.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I come to it thinking that a contending team can't have 2 number 5 starters in their rotation. If they really thought a contending team could have both Happ and Shoemaker make at least 10 starts, and likely more, I guess my confidence in them should be even lower. I don't expect people to agree......but I just don't see how that's realistic.

That's reasonable, I suppose, but at this point we can be thankful the team did not trade for a starter this offseason because YIKES, that would have been a colossal waste.

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1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That's reasonable, I suppose, but at this point we can be thankful the team did not trade for a starter this offseason because YIKES, that would have been a colossal waste.

The number of things that have gone wrong is kind of amazing. Most everything that could, did, early on. Now, other than health and progress to next year, it doesn't matter how right things go. The hole is too deep. I admit not seeing this coming.....not even a little. At worst I figured they'd be around .500 right now because of the starting pitching. Now, if they had traded for a controllable starter (is there ever one dealt?), that might have been ok.....but I have my doubts about next year too. I don't see enough starting pitching, again. 

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Just now, Mike Sixel said:

The number of things that have gone wrong is kind of amazing. Most everything that could, did, early on. Now, other than health and progress to next year, it doesn't matter how right things go. The hole is too deep. I admit not seeing this coming.....not even a little. At worst I figured they'd be around .500 right now because of the starting pitching. Now, if they had traded for a controllable starter (is there ever one dealt?), that might have been ok.....but I have my doubts about next year too. I don't see enough starting pitching, again. 

I’m leaning pretty hard toward trading Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers and fielding offers for Maeda and Donaldson at this point.

If the front office does things aggressively and makes smart choices, this team could be a contender again as early as 2023.

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14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

What's so crazy about predicting less than half a win for Shoemaker? Before this season, he had posted one negative fWAR season, which was 2020 in just 28 IP and that was *barely* negative at -0.1.

Literally everything has gone sideways for Shoemaker to an extent that was rather unreasonable to predict. His walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down (in 2021, not sure how that's possible) but his velo hasn't declined. He is just straight-up terrible now for reasons that aren't entirely obvious.

Regression is a thing in baseball.  With Shoemaker, if you pull up his history on B-R (or wherever) and toss out the outlier seasons and small sample seasons while focusing on his typical seasons, you're left with what he will regress to.  Of course, this isn't feasible if there is an up or down trend, but there is no such thing with Shoemaker.

One thing to realize is that fWAR, ZiPS, or any other system, is considering all this data where a human can use our noggins to know to ignore (or choose to ignore, based on our approach).  

Last year, Shoemaker's ERA+ was 93.  With the eyeball test, I can see this is a fair prediction for him, although by my analysis it's actually a couple of points on the high side.  My thoughts were he would end up with an ERA+ in the 80s this year.  Maybe that works out to half a point of WAR, maybe not, but either way he's not someone worth targeting.

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2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I’m leaning pretty hard toward trading Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers and fielding offers for Maeda and Donaldson at this point.

If the front office does things aggressively and makes smart choices, this team could be a contender again as early as 2023.

It is all about the choices and development. If they make the wrong ones, they are Pittsburgh.........and so far, I'm not loving what I'm seeing. But, man, not having last year really makes it impossible to know if they can develop players one way or the other yet.

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1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

Regression is a thing in baseball.  With Shoemaker, if you pull up his history on B-R (or wherever) and toss out the outlier seasons and small sample seasons while focusing on his typical seasons, you're left with what he will regress to.  Of course, this isn't feasible if there is an up or down trend, but there is no such thing with Shoemaker.

One thing to realize is that fWAR, ZiPS, or any other system, is considering all this data where a human can use our noggins to know to ignore (or choose to ignore, based on our approach).  

Last year, Shoemaker's ERA+ was 93.  With the eyeball test, I can see this is a fair prediction for him, although by my analysis it's actually a couple of points on the high side.  My thoughts were he would end up with an ERA+ in the 80s this year.  Maybe that works out to half a point of WAR, maybe not, but either way he's not someone worth targeting.

He pitched 28 innings last season. You’re basing a lot on very little.

How much did you actually watch Shoemaker last season? I can comfortably say I watched him all of zero times, which means my eyeball test is worth exactly nothing. 

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27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, if the eye test is wrong (which it often is) and stats are wrong (which they often are).....what is the right way? It is pretty hard to be 100% right about the future........

Both!  ;)

But realize that ...

  1. Outliers are important
  2. Macro-level analytics will hoover up those outliers without understanding they are exceptions
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1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

It is all about the choices and development. If they make the wrong ones, they are Pittsburgh.........and so far, I'm not loving what I'm seeing. But, man, not having last year really makes it impossible to know if they can develop players one way or the other yet.

Yep. We should know so much more about this front office than we do right now. It’s really frustrating. 

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1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

Both!  ;)

But realize that ...

  1. Outliers are important
  2. Macro-level analytics will hoover up those outliers without understanding they are exceptions

I'm assuming the FO knows this.......

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3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

He pitched 28 innings last season. You’re basing a lot on very little.

How much did you actually watch Shoemaker last season? I can comfortably say I watched him all of zero times, which means my eyeball test is worth exactly nothing. 

I'm not basing my opinion on last year, I'm stating that the other data shows that last year was a predictable output for him.

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34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm assuming the FO knows this.......

I'm not saying they don't.  However, if they used ZiPS, which is what I'm responding to, they don't know it.  Honestly I was scratching my head to see what others were seeing with Shoemaker.

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8 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I'm not basing my opinion on last year, I'm stating that the other data shows that last year was a predictable output for him.

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense. What about these stats tell you an epic implosion was looming?

Season Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB vFA ERA xERA FIP xFIP WAR
2013 LAA MLB 26 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 9.00 3.60 0.00 .167 100.0% 41.7% 0.0% 91.5 0.00   2.25 3.34 0.1
2014 LAA MLB 27 16 4 0 27 20 136.0 8.21 1.59 0.93 .286 77.5% 41.2% 9.4% 91.3 3.04   3.26 3.28 2.1
2015 LAA MLB 28 7 10 0 25 24 135.1 7.71 2.33 1.60 .285 74.1% 39.2% 14.0% 91.1 4.46 3.88 4.59 4.16 0.7
2016 LAA MLB 29 9 13 0 27 27 160.0 8.04 1.69 1.01 .315 74.2% 39.8% 10.3% 92.4 3.88 4.13 3.52 3.86 3.5
2017 LAA MLB 30 6 3 0 14 14 77.2 8.00 3.24 1.74 .276 76.2% 38.5% 14.6% 91.9 4.52 4.87 5.13 4.98 0.2
2018 LAA MLB 31 2 2 0 7 7 31.0 9.58 2.90 0.87 .313 64.2% 43.5% 10.3% 91.4 4.94 5.44 3.35 3.64 0.7
2019 TOR MLB 32 3 0 0 5 5 28.2 7.53 2.83 0.94 .183 87.2% 51.4% 11.1% 90.4 1.57 5.31 3.95 4.46 0.6
2020 TOR MLB 33 0 1 0 6 6 28.2 8.16 2.83 2.51 .194 75.8% 48.1% 29.6% 92.3 4.71 5.10 5.95 4.14 -0.1
2021 MIN MLB 34 2 8 0 13 11 54.2 6.09 3.79 1.98 .298 58.0% 44.4% 18.2% 91.8 7.57 5.76 6.03 5.29 -0.4
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6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense. What about these stats tell you an epic implosion was looming?

Season Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB vFA ERA xERA FIP xFIP WAR
2013 LAA MLB 26 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 9.00 3.60 0.00 .167 100.0% 41.7% 0.0% 91.5 0.00   2.25 3.34 0.1
2014 LAA MLB 27 16 4 0 27 20 136.0 8.21 1.59 0.93 .286 77.5% 41.2% 9.4% 91.3 3.04   3.26 3.28 2.1
2015 LAA MLB 28 7 10 0 25 24 135.1 7.71 2.33 1.60 .285 74.1% 39.2% 14.0% 91.1 4.46 3.88 4.59 4.16 0.7
2016 LAA MLB 29 9 13 0 27 27 160.0 8.04 1.69 1.01 .315 74.2% 39.8% 10.3% 92.4 3.88 4.13 3.52 3.86 3.5
2017 LAA MLB 30 6 3 0 14 14 77.2 8.00 3.24 1.74 .276 76.2% 38.5% 14.6% 91.9 4.52 4.87 5.13 4.98 0.2
2018 LAA MLB 31 2 2 0 7 7 31.0 9.58 2.90 0.87 .313 64.2% 43.5% 10.3% 91.4 4.94 5.44 3.35 3.64 0.7
2019 TOR MLB 32 3 0 0 5 5 28.2 7.53 2.83 0.94 .183 87.2% 51.4% 11.1% 90.4 1.57 5.31 3.95 4.46 0.6
2020 TOR MLB 33 0 1 0 6 6 28.2 8.16 2.83 2.51 .194 75.8% 48.1% 29.6% 92.3 4.71 5.10 5.95 4.14 -0.1
2021 MIN MLB 34 2 8 0 13 11 54.2 6.09 3.79 1.98 .298 58.0% 44.4% 18.2% 91.8 7.57 5.76 6.03 5.29 -0.4

1 year with a WAR over 1 in the last 6 makes me think he's a legit number 5 starter at best........which is why I hated signing him AND Happ. They needed one more good starter (no idea how they get that, btw, in their budget). Maybe they felt they could hang around until they could deal for a legit starter at the break? Maybe they really thought Dobnak was good (I hope not, in some ways)?

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1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

1 year with a WAR over 1 in the last 6 makes me think he's a legit number 5 starter at best........which is why I hated signing him AND Happ. They needed one more good starter (no idea how they get that, btw, in their budget). Maybe they felt they could hang around until they could deal for a legit starter at the break? Maybe they really thought Dobnak was good (I hope not, in some ways)?

I wonder how many innings they really expected to get out of Shoemaker given his history, which is why I wasn't in love with the signing. As that stat chart shows, the dude just hasn't pitched, not sure why anyone expected him to do so in 2021.

But "not pitching" and "terrible pitcher" aren't the same thing.

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17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense. What about these stats tell you an epic implosion was looming?

Season Team Level Age W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB vFA ERA xERA FIP xFIP WAR
2013 LAA MLB 26 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 9.00 3.60 0.00 .167 100.0% 41.7% 0.0% 91.5 0.00   2.25 3.34 0.1
2014 LAA MLB 27 16 4 0 27 20 136.0 8.21 1.59 0.93 .286 77.5% 41.2% 9.4% 91.3 3.04   3.26 3.28 2.1
2015 LAA MLB 28 7 10 0 25 24 135.1 7.71 2.33 1.60 .285 74.1% 39.2% 14.0% 91.1 4.46 3.88 4.59 4.16 0.7
2016 LAA MLB 29 9 13 0 27 27 160.0 8.04 1.69 1.01 .315 74.2% 39.8% 10.3% 92.4 3.88 4.13 3.52 3.86 3.5
2017 LAA MLB 30 6 3 0 14 14 77.2 8.00 3.24 1.74 .276 76.2% 38.5% 14.6% 91.9 4.52 4.87 5.13 4.98 0.2
2018 LAA MLB 31 2 2 0 7 7 31.0 9.58 2.90 0.87 .313 64.2% 43.5% 10.3% 91.4 4.94 5.44 3.35 3.64 0.7
2019 TOR MLB 32 3 0 0 5 5 28.2 7.53 2.83 0.94 .183 87.2% 51.4% 11.1% 90.4 1.57 5.31 3.95 4.46 0.6
2020 TOR MLB 33 0 1 0 6 6 28.2 8.16 2.83 2.51 .194 75.8% 48.1% 29.6% 92.3 4.71 5.10 5.95 4.14 -0.1
2021 MIN MLB 34 2 8 0 13 11 54.2 6.09 3.79 1.98 .298 58.0% 44.4% 18.2% 91.8 7.57 5.76 6.03 5.29 -0.4

I said I predicted his ERA+ would be in the 80s.  That's not an epic implosion, that's just suckage.  He's doing the epic implosion all on his own.  Maybe he's an overachiever after all?  :D

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