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Game Recap: Mariners 4, Twins 3


4 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

It's amazing how bad Seattle's offense is generally speaking, yet they're only two games below .500.  That really goes to show how crucial hitting is when opportunity knocks.  I don't know how sustainable that efficiency is for them, but they've certainly made good use of it thus far.

More evidence: Seattle is 5 wins ahead of their BaseRuns record (which is a Pythag record using estimated runs scored/allowed -- so removing the effects of sequencing or clutch hitting/pitching).

The Twins are 4 wins *behind* our BaseRuns record.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns

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8 hours ago, wabene said:

Celestino is called up early because of injuries. Not a good time to make a long term valuation of him. 

Whatever. It all counts. Ignore it if you like. Playing outfield forever and then this in the show. That should be ingrained years ago. I'm not talking about his bat. I understand that MLB pitching is a hurdle. But his calling card, defense, is not different at any level.

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One of the things I've observed this season, and, regrettably, especially from 3B Donaldson recently, is that the defense can't get out of an inning.  They get to two outs, but then bobble the ball, toss an errant throw, or something screwy happens in the outfield.

The problem mostly resides in the infield.

By not getting out of an inning, this leads to runs for the other team and puts pressure on our starting pitcher (particularly his pitch count).  Once the pitcher crosses his threshold, then it's off to the bullpen, which this year is about as shallow as a kiddie pool in the backyard.

. . .

With this season essentially statistically out of reach for the postseason (I feel like a pre-2016 Cubs fan . . . "There is always next year . . . ") it does seem time to start pulling guys up through the system and getting some of them Big League reps.

With that, and no offense to him, but I'm not hyped on Celestino in the Twins organization.  There are higher rungs on the CF ladder starting with Buxton (when healthy), Refsnyder (a possible diamond in the rough), and Gordon (who could be a pleasant surprise if the opportunity affords itself).  I'm not saying Celestino is bad, and he certainly got called up before his time due to injuries, but given what potential he might possess himself in CF, he may be a decent trade play come Trade Deadline or Hot Stove League.

Just some food for thought.

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17 minutes ago, TC-D.MajorBaseballFan said:

One of the things I've observed this season, and, regrettably, especially from 3B Donaldson recently, is that the defense can't get out of an inning.  They get to two outs, but then bobble the ball, toss an errant throw, or something screwy happens in the outfield.

The problem mostly resides in the infield.

100%.  The problems seem twofold:

  1. The Twins pitchers do a decent job getting ahead of batters, then they dink around the edges of the strike zone resulting in a long at-bat.
  2. The infielders are bored to sleep by these long at-bats and are seemingly not prepared when a play finally unfolds.

1a. Could easily be that the pitcher invariably tosses a meatball either due to long at-bat mental fatigue or frustration.

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54 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Whatever. It all counts. Ignore it if you like. Playing outfield forever and then this in the show. That should be ingrained years ago. I'm not talking about his bat. I understand that MLB pitching is a hurdle. But his calling card, defense, is not different at any level.

It does all count. Including the hundreds (thousands?) of innings he's played before the last few weeks that you've seen him. Your earlier post complained about him playing too shallow (same thing Buxton did when he came up, by the way). You think maybe that's a habit he picked up because he was fast enough (88th percentile sprint speed) to get back on minor league fly balls that aren't hit as hard and now he's seeing in the majors that the ball gets there a little quicker? Same with his routes (although I'd simply disagree that his routes are as bad on a regular basis as you make them sound). If you're used to me hitting fly balls to center you get comfortable knowing the ball over your head you can most likely get to, and the ball to the gap will hang up more due to lack of power behind the swing. But when a major leaguer hits one they travel quicker and farther. That's why they're in the majors and I'm not.

The idea that you've watched him play a handful of games and have decided he's a grade 40 fielder when people with years of scouting experience pretty unanimously grade him at 60 as a fielder should say more about your scouting ability than anything.

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Is it pitch framing or simply that that is the umpire's strike zone that day? The moving low-and-away or low-and-in pitch is the hardest one for an umpire to see and evaluate. (I suspect that "pitch framing" is the baseball voodoo stat of the moment. Umpires, after all, are trained to watch the ball in relation to the plate, not the location of the catcher's glove.)

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13 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

Is it pitch framing or simply that that is the umpire's strike zone that day? The moving low-and-away or low-and-in pitch is the hardest one for an umpire to see and evaluate. (I suspect that "pitch framing" is the baseball voodoo stat of the moment. Umpires, after all, are trained to watch the ball in relation to the plate, not the location of the catcher's glove.)

The measurement was intended to grade umpires' ability to properly judge a standardized strike zone.  The metric very quickly became a measurement to rate catchers' ability to finesse strikes out of what should have been called balls, thus "pitch framing" was born.  We know of course that there are reasons a ball may be called a strike other than the catcher's acting ability.

Pitch framing has its merits, but it's not the game changer some people thought it was.  The Twins overpaid for Jason Castro because of his ability to get good strike calls.  He was considered one of the best at pitch framing, if not the best at it, when the Twins brought him in. 

Castro is back in Houston now, earning about what he was when he was in Houston before, and he's having a great year in the batter's box.

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6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It does all count. Including the hundreds (thousands?) of innings he's played before the last few weeks that you've seen him. Your earlier post complained about him playing too shallow (same thing Buxton did when he came up, by the way). You think maybe that's a habit he picked up because he was fast enough (88th percentile sprint speed) to get back on minor league fly balls that aren't hit as hard and now he's seeing in the majors that the ball gets there a little quicker? Same with his routes (although I'd simply disagree that his routes are as bad on a regular basis as you make them sound). If you're used to me hitting fly balls to center you get comfortable knowing the ball over your head you can most likely get to, and the ball to the gap will hang up more due to lack of power behind the swing. But when a major leaguer hits one they travel quicker and farther. That's why they're in the majors and I'm not.

The idea that you've watched him play a handful of games and have decided he's a grade 40 fielder when people with years of scouting experience pretty unanimously grade him at 60 as a fielder should say more about your scouting ability than anything.

Thank you for confirming that he has had ample time to adjust to the variations of a hit baseball in the outfield, and should be well versed. As to the quicker and farther, that is an interesting stance. I didn't know that 105mph or whatever is different in the Minors. 105 =105 everywhere as far as I know. It could be that he is positioned where he is by the bench, I don't know, and you probably haven't talked to the bench about it either. (I have questioned in more that one past post "haven't they learned from Buxton.) If it is, that is on them, because if we go with the "when a major leaguer hits one they travel quicker and farther" (which I find silly as most in the show don't hit it that hard) they should have made that adjustment for the rookie, especially if it is consensus he is not ready to make those decisions on his own, and especially in the late innings. Either way, it is happening repetitively, and that is not a physical error. Please forgive me that I have taken the "people with years of scouting experience" ratings and expected to see it. I don't know how that happens. 

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11 hours ago, h2oface said:

Maybe not, because it would be 2-2 because of his homer. Celestino is supposed to be a very good defensive true centerfielder, but he plays too shallow and it continues to cost us runs, as it did again tonight. His routes are terrible, and his throws are worse, as is his judgement. I would rather see Gordon in center, and he never played center until the last couple of games! I keep reading about his Prospect value, but I'm not buying. Try to sell it all you like, sportswriters. I don't see Celestino as a plus in any way.

This bullpen. So painful. I can't imagine what it is like being on this team and having to watch them lose your games late. The hitters must hate them.

And now we get Happ tomorrow, the 1 year gift from the FO. Thanks.

Blaming a player not ready for the majors yet for failing at doing everything right when they're pushed to play too early due to injuries is just beating a dead horse. Writing off a prospect pushed into his situation because of a few bad plays in a small sample is unwise.

Here's a short highlight reel from 2020 put together by Tom showing how good he can be once he is ready for the majors:

 

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4 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Thank you for confirming that he has had ample time to adjust to the variations of a hit baseball in the outfield, and should be well versed. As to the quicker and farther, that is an interesting stance. I didn't know that 105mph or whatever is different in the Minors. 105 =105 everywhere as far as I know. It could be that he is positioned where he is by the bench, I don't know, and you probably haven't talked to the bench about it either. (I have questioned in more that one past post "haven't they learned from Buxton.) If it is, that is on them, because if we go with the "when a major leaguer hits one the travel quicker and farther (which I find silly as there are most in the show that don't hit it that hard) they should have made that adjustment for the rookie, especially if it is consensus he is not ready to make those decisions on his own. Either way, it is happening repetitively, and that is not a physical error. Please forgive me that I have taken the "people with years of scouting experience" ratings and expected to see it. I don't know how that happens. 

The point isn't that 105 doesn't equal 105 in the minors, its that there are fewer 105s in the minors. If you're used to guys not being able to beat you over your head cuz they can't hit it hard enough you play shallower to take away the weak contact. If it's an organization wide thing that they position minor leaguers shallow only to see them get beat by it in the bigs that's obviously a concern. But I'd guess they aren't doing as in depth of positioning in the minors (especially AA and below like Celestino has played). And there are enough things for young guys, especially those not ready for the majors, to worry about that you're not going to try to mess with their basic positioning (worry more about left and right shifts than front and back).

The bottom line is that you position yourself differently and have to read batted balls at different exit velos depending on the level of play you're at. The longer you spend at that level (I'm talking little league, high school, college, minors, majors, and everything in between) the more comfortable you get with your positioning and reading those balls. If you think there's as many guys hitting the ball with 90+ exit velos on a regular basis in A ball as there are in the majors I have a bridge to sell you. Do you not think there's a difference in the way the average AA hitter hits than the way the average MLB hits? You think the ball is coming off their bat the same way?

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1 hour ago, Seansy said:

Blaming a player not ready for the majors yet for failing at doing everything right when they're pushed to play too early due to injuries is just beating a dead horse. Writing off a prospect pushed into his situation because of a few bad plays in a small sample is unwise.

Here's a short highlight reel from 2020 put together by Tom showing how good he can be once he is ready for the majors:

 

If he played like this, I wouldn't be posting, and you wouldn't be defending him. But I am confused. This "showing how good he can be once he is ready for the majors:" - if this is how good he can be NOW, in the video, isn't he ready for the outfield wherever he plays, and it reasonable to expect similar? I am not critical of him at the plate. Just in outfield play - decisions, throws, positioning, and results. I hope he gets ready, too.

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12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

.... But I'd guess they aren't doing as in depth of positioning in the minors (especially AA and below like Celestino has played). And there are enough things for young guys, especially those not ready for the majors, to worry about that you're not going to try to mess with their basic positioning (worry more about left and right shifts than front and back).

The bottom line is that you position yourself differently and have to read batted balls at different exit velos depending on the level of play you're at. The longer you spend at that level (I'm talking little league, high school, college, minors, majors, and everything in between) the more comfortable you get with your positioning and reading those balls. If you think there's as many guys hitting the ball with 90+ exit velos on a regular basis in A ball as there are in the majors I have a bridge to sell you. Do you not think there's a difference in the way the average AA hitter hits than the way the average MLB hits? You think the ball is coming off their bat the same way?

"I'd guess they aren't doing as in depth of positioning in the minors", too. But they are in the show, especially with all the data used now. Positioning from the bench should not be stressful, nor difficult. If they aren't doing it, that is an even bigger system failure.

"If you think there's as many guys hitting the ball with 90+ exit velos on a regular basis in A ball as there are in the majors I have a bridge to sell you." No, of course I don't. You can keep your bridge.

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9 minutes ago, h2oface said:

"I'd guess they aren't doing as in depth of positioning in the minors", too. But they are in the show, especially with all the data used now. Positioning from the bench should not be stressful, nor difficult. If they aren't doing it, that is an even bigger system failure.

"If you think there's as many guys hitting the ball with 90+ exit velos on a regular basis in A ball as there are in the majors I have a bridge to sell you." No, of course I don't. You can keep your bridge.

There's a lot going on on a baseball field every pitch. He's not just standing there picking daisies waiting for the pitch. The differences between AA and MLB in the game, life style, expectations, everything are very different. I'd love him and every player to just step in and perform at their peak abilities from the jump just like you. But that's not how humans work. Teams try their best to limit the amount of stimulus and information they heap on rookies, especially ones who weren't ready and were forced in due to injuries. So they let him play more or less where he normally does based on the information they give him on hitter push/pull tendencies. I've seen them shift him around here and there.

But whether you want to accept it or not there is a difference in fielding at different levels and the comfortability factor of where a player positions himself matters. You may not like it, but it doesn't change that fact. Calling up a player prematurely and then telling him you're going to change how he's played the game while you're at it is poor team management. They didn't change Buxton's positioning overnight either. It took him (arguably the best defensive CFer in the game) years to adjust and you're over here dismissing a kid who can't make the shift overnight. Again, this all says more about your understanding of things than anything about Celestino and his future MLB prospects.

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37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Again, this all says more about your understanding of things than anything about Celestino and his future MLB prospects.

You have basically called me stupid now more than once, and are assuming I don't consider all that. See you around.

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57 minutes ago, h2oface said:

You have basically called me stupid now more than once, and are assuming I don't consider all that. See you around.

You are raising good points.  What are scouts seeing that you're not when it comes to his defense?  That's a valid question, whether you are a scout or not.  It's also valid to point out that defense does not change from level to level.  Are balls hit harder in the MLB?  The median is higher I would wager, but AAA surely has a fair share of guys who can smoke the ball and the MLB has its share of guys who can't.  However, Celestino skipped AAA.  How much is the drop off to AA?  I would imagine the difference is palpable to a young player.

Celestino probably has the jitters as his numbers suggest he is a legit CF.  However, his bat looks uninspiring.  There is a reason the Twins called him up instead of starting the clock on someone else.  It's not his bat, which suggests he is not in the long term plans (at least not right now).

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1 hour ago, h2oface said:

You have basically called me stupid now more than once, and are assuming I don't consider all that. See you around.

You're on here basically everyday commenting how awful the FO, and Rocco, and most of the players are. You're now stating that everyone who says Celestino is a legit CFer is wrong based on a couple weeks of MLB games. If me pointing out that your assessments are based on less data and going against industry wide agreed upon assessments come off as calling you stupid I apologize. I mean it in a "maybe reassess your assessments since they go against industry wide conclusions so maybe you're missing some information" way. None of us are professional scouts or FO execs (at least that I know of). But many of the writers on this site have contacts with more knowledge and information, and some of the commenters have backgrounds that lend themselves to more educated opinions. We're all entitled to our opinions, and you're entitled to feel as though Celestino doesn't have a legit shot at being an MLB CFer. But just like you get to question, and argue against, the FO decisions and other commenters opinions I (and anyone else) gets to question, and argue against, your opinions. I apologize for coming off as calling you stupid as that wasn't my intention. Simply disagreeing.

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Not to step too deep into this argument, but I don't think there's a great deal of difference in playing CF in AA or the majors.

 

Hitting major league pitching is obviously much harder. Running down fly balls isn't. I've heard the second and third decks behind home plate in the show takes a little getting used to, but other than that, what's the difference?

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56 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Not to step too deep into this argument, but I don't think there's a great deal of difference in playing CF in AA or the majors.

 

Hitting major league pitching is obviously much harder. Running down fly balls isn't. I've heard the second and third decks behind home plate in the show takes a little getting used to, but other than that, what's the difference?

"Hitting major league pitching is obviously much harder."   Unless it the Twins pitching staff, minus a couple of exceptions.  LOL

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3 hours ago, h2oface said:

If he played like this, I wouldn't be posting, and you wouldn't be defending him. But I am confused. This "showing how good he can be once he is ready for the majors:" - if this is how good he can be NOW, in the video, isn't he ready for the outfield where ever he plays, and it reasonable to expect similar? I am not critical of him at the plate. Just in outfield play - decisions, throws, positioning, and results. I hope he gets ready, too.

Most players in the bigs aren't there solely because their best is that much better than the guys in the minors' best.  It's that the guys in the bigs are much more consistent at being their best.  Put another way, if Celestino plays the best he is possibly capable of playing, it's probably not that much worse than the best Buxton is capable of playing; he's maybe 85 to 90 percent as good.  However, how often does Celestino have a day where he plays the best he is capable of playing?  Once every 5 days?  Every 10?  And how often does Buxton do it?  Every 2 or 3?  It's like the old football saying about lesser teams beating better teams--if the lesser teams plays a perfect game, they can beat the better teams (it's also how the Twins took 2 of 6 from NYY/HOU, 2 demonstrably better teams).  The St Paul Saints would win 2-3 out of every 10 games against the Twins, because 2-3 times out of 10, the Saints would collectively do a better job of playing to their potential than the Twins.  But the Twins win 7-8 times because the Twins collectively more often play to their talent.

With more time and seasoning, Celestino will either increase the ratio at which he plays to his potential, or he will find himself first a AAAA outfielder, and then out of baseball.

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1 hour ago, SanoMustGo said:

"Hitting major league pitching is obviously much harder."   Unless it the Twins pitching staff, minus a couple of exceptions.  LOL

Also, to be fair I guess, there's a few more rockets over Celestino's head playing behind this staff.

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On 6/15/2021 at 2:51 AM, h2oface said:

Maybe not, because it would be 2-2 because of his homer. Celestino is supposed to be a very good defensive true centerfielder, but he plays too shallow and it continues to cost us runs, as it did again tonight. His routes are terrible, and his throws are worse, as is his judgement. I would rather see Gordon in center, and he never played center until the last couple of games! I keep reading about his Prospect value, but I'm not buying. Try to sell it all you like, sportswriters. I don't see Celestino as a plus in any way.

This bullpen. So painful. I can't imagine what it is like being on this team and having to watch them lose your games late. The hitters must hate them.

And now we get Happ tomorrow, the 1 year gift from the FO. Thanks.

Not just referring to Celestino..Buxton catches (robs) that HR that Gordon mis-timed all day every day & twice on Sunday.

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Tuesday night at Wichita, the AA boys hit the ball....

 

Three bombs in the first three innings: 💣 Jose Miranda to start the game

💣 Caleb Hamilton with a 464-foot moonshot

💣 Andrew Bechtold - 440 feet

 
I guess the AA players do hit the ball differently than the boys in the show. Way harder than the Twins and Mariners did in Seattle. Even with the leadoff homer, double and triple against Happ.......
 
Happ managed to limit the Mariners to soft contact as Seattle hitters averaged an 81.5 mph exit velocity against him, according to Statcast.
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