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The Twins Have One Final Chance to Turn it Around

The Minnesota Twins finally got some revenge on the Yankees with a dramatic walkoff win. When Cruz was rounding the bases I thought "Well... what if?" and that is a dangerous path! Let's explore it!

If you've been paying any attention at all to the Twins this season you know this team simply might not be good. That is extremely frustrating for Twins fans who were basically promised another successful regular season and another shot at the playoffs. As I write this on June 11th, the Twins have just a 3.0% chance to make the playoffs according to Fangraphs. Then you remember that Nelson Cruz walkoff and can't help but think about the 3% and what needs to happen to get there. The winning has to start immediately.

The Twins will play 18 more games in June before July rolls around and trades must be made. These games will be against the Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Reds, Cleveland, and the White Sox. Not too easy, not too difficult. If the Twins realistically want to get back into striking distance of the playoffs then they'll have to win 12 of these 18 games minimum. Ideally they take anywhere from 13-18 of the games, but let's stay realistic. Going 12-6 shouldn't be out of the question and it's about time this team goes on a run. Winning 12 games would put them at 37-43 at the start of July. That's not pretty, but it's better than the current 12 games under .500 so it would work.

For this experiment let's say the Twins go 12-6 and everyone ahead of them goes .500 until July. This would put the Twins about 10.0 games back of Chicago for the division and 7.0 games back of the second wild card spot. Is that enough to hold back the front office from selling everyone? Probably not. Will the Twins instead have to go 14-4 or so until July to be around 8.0 back for the division and roughly 5.0 back for the wild card? Probably. It's an uphill climb for the Twins but they've dug this hole for themselves and now they'll have to dig out of it themselves.

For now, the team has to take it one game at a time. Sports are all about momentum and maybe that Nelson Cruz home run sparked something in the team that we are yet to see in 2021. Maybe this is some weird stage of grief that I'm going through where I'm writing about this bad team going 14-4 in their next 18. That seems like the likely scenario here. Either way, time for the Twins to win or say goodbye to some fan favorites.

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The Twins need to go on a 10-12 game winning streak. Not win series' now. Sweep. If not, forget about it. Since they tanked after the influx of hysteria after the 4 runs in 5 pitches comeback and 9th inning walk off against the Yankees and Chapman, I don't see it happening. The pitching staff wasted 4 homers and Baldelli let Shoemaker be the new Colome. I don't see it happening.

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This offense has hard time getting 5 singles in a game as a team unless they hit 6 or more solo homeruns.  Live & die by the homerun is the only way they can win.  There’s no small ball or other ways they know how to win a game.   Until the players learn to use the whole field to hit it’s gonna be hard to win consistently.  There not aggressive early in the count like they were in 2019.

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Wasn't that long ago we had what, 13 games coming up against the Orioles and KC.  Easy, win 10 of 13 against two teams that aren't good and that's a start to get back into the hunt.  Well, we know how that turned out.  Even talking about winning 12 of 18 (now 12 of 17) in this next stretch is as Rodney Dangerfield once said..."Living in Fantasy Land!"

This team isn't very good anywhere except on paper, and I ain't too certain they are any good there either.  Sure, the injuries have been brutal, but isn't it time to begin planning to get better for 2022 and beyond?  We will see come August if as Sid Hartman would have said...we'll see what the geniuses in the front office have accomplished.

Yes, I know I shouldn't be this negative.  But heck, they even took away my ability to watch these ugly games, so why not be negative.  Hell, I'm old and if anything entitled to be a little crotchety. 

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Kids, I hate to break it to you. Santa isn't coming this year. The Easter Bunny is on the IL. There will be no winning streak. There is nothing that suggests this team is capable of that. That is the fantasy of the Twins' broadcast teams. I have done some of my own  modeling on their playoff probability. Yeah, I know; pray for me. I am not sure where 3% comes from but it must be generated by the Kool-Aid fountain. Its around 1% by my estimation. The  Twins will be sellers soon. That is a given. But the season is not just bad luck, its another systemic failure. The team was poorly constructed, inexplicably managed and racked by palpable player apathy.  This organization needs to sober up and look in the mirror. They are miles and miles away from relevancy.   

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