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POLL: Blow it up?


Blow it up?  

57 members have voted

  1. 1. To what degree should the Twins rebuild?

    • Don’t rebuild, continue to fight (if you chose this, you’re a crazy person)
    • Re-Tool for 2022
    • Re-Build for 2023 or 2024
    • Absolute Cleanout, build for 2025 onward


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I think the Twins should listen to offers for Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Duffey, Garver, Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Maeda, and Donaldson. If a really great trade comes along they should make it, but I'm not in favor of making a deal that doesn't have a pretty good chance of being a long term win.

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I’m in the re-tool for 22 category. Resign Buxton, if possible and Larnach, Kirilloff, Buxton and Refsnyder should be enough, plus Wichita has a couple of good OF prospects (Whitefield and De La Trinidad). Celestino should still have a nice future. I’m hoping Miranda could be ready for '22. Barring a SS signing, I think Polanco and Gordon will do for SS and 2B. I’d sign a quality competitor to Sano at 1B and look to Jeffers at C, esp. if  Garver traded. Pitching should be the major focus this coming offseason. Quality pitching!!!

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All I know is that I don't want to hear about 'prospects'.  How many years have we've been hearing about the Sano potential.  You can include Buxton as well.  Last portion of last year and April of this year are too small a sample size to bank on.  The Twins need to acquire or sign a stronger presence.  A big free agent signing can be negated by going with 2-3 prospects from the farm system.  I know our budget almost forces us to grow our own guys, but it's just not working.

Maybe it's time to gut this team and start from scratch.  If for no other reason, we need  to clear the slate, the attitude, and the disappointment of this team and organization.

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54 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

I think the Twins should listen to offers for Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Duffey, Garver, Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Maeda, and Donaldson. If a really great trade comes along they should make it, but I'm not in favor of making a deal that doesn't have a pretty good chance of being a long term win.

Any established player under team control for this year and at least next year should be an overpay in order to make a deal. It is possible that someone might overpay to get Berríos or a relief pitcher.

If Jeffers and both Kirilloff and Larnach demonstrate they are ready to be major league regulars, there may be a chance to trade veterans like Garver, Kepler and Polanco. I think the Twins would need to get a good return for each of those guys, but if the young guys are ready, it makes sense to move the veterans. 

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Unless two of the starting pitchers in the minors right now are good next year, I don't see how they compete next year. In a year they were supposed to compete, they signed two number 5 pitchers. Imagine not having Pineda, Happ, or Shoemaker....a question mark in Maeda, and Berrios not signed long term.......

If two starters don't come up this year and be good for 2 months, I just don't see a path they will be willing to take to get good pitching.

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1 hour ago, jaimedude said:

They need to start over in the front office, Falvey and Lavine have been here now five years and have little to nothing to show for any pitching to develop. This was supposed to be the area that these two excelled at. Ready for new front office guy's and scout's to take over.

Abrupt and periodic FO turnover is surely a recipe for perpetual failure, so ordinarily I would resist this line of thinking.  I was slow to abandon Terry Ryan, for instance.  But right now, I think this has to be on the table. 

The first few years for FalVine were to be about process, about getting the right mentors in place, and so forth.  But at some point it has to transition, to be about results.  This is early, but if the FO is on the wrong path, a floundering path, the quicker we diagnose it and change, the better.

If I were signing their paychecks, I would want to be shown where in the system the results are starting to become evident.  If not at the major league level, then is there evidence that the seeds planted in 2017 are starting to bloom now?  What secret sauce has all the analytics produced, that turns into wins?  The home-run-happy offense of 2019 looks like it was a flash in the pan.  If Falvey has diagnosed the problem too, I'm open to hearing a get-well plan, but it can't be another 5-year cycle - that's a time frame I'd give someone new.

It seems like the analytics has whiffed on basic things that ordinary fans can catch, such as Simmons's 2020 stats being heavily inflated by a favorable BABIP.  In sum, I was keeping faith that their analytics-fu was strong and mine was weak, but I'm now less than convinced that a bright high-schooler couldn't have done as well if not better than either of us.  That's unfair hyperbole, but I'm disappointed.

The question of the poll was whether to blow it up.  Blowing it up can go all the way to the top. 

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13 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Abrupt ...............

The question of the poll was whether to blow it up.  Blowing it up can go all the way to the top. 

I agree, this is the year we need to see results across the org. Not just hitters, pitchers and fielders too. So far, color me not impressed. 

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There will be so many players gone after this year, and there are so few players in the pipeline, that rebuild is the only option.  This is not a bad thing, and a "rebuild" doesn't have to drag on for years as we are accustomed.  Don't forget, what we were told was a rebuild last time was actually a salary dump.

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15 hours ago, ashbury said:

Abrupt and periodic FO turnover is surely a recipe for perpetual failure, so ordinarily I would resist this line of thinking.  I was slow to abandon Terry Ryan, for instance.  But right now, I think this has to be on the table. 

The first few years for FalVine were to be about process, about getting the right mentors in place, and so forth.  But at some point it has to transition, to be about results.  This is early, but if the FO is on the wrong path, a floundering path, the quicker we diagnose it and change, the better.

If I were signing their paychecks, I would want to be shown where in the system the results are starting to become evident.  If not at the major league level, then is there evidence that the seeds planted in 2017 are starting to bloom now?  What secret sauce has all the analytics produced, that turns into wins?  The home-run-happy offense of 2019 looks like it was a flash in the pan.  If Falvey has diagnosed the problem too, I'm open to hearing a get-well plan, but it can't be another 5-year cycle - that's a time frame I'd give someone new.

It seems like the analytics has whiffed on basic things that ordinary fans can catch, such as Simmons's 2020 stats being heavily inflated by a favorable BABIP.  In sum, I was keeping faith that their analytics-fu was strong and mine was weak, but I'm now less than convinced that a bright high-schooler couldn't have done as well if not better than either of us.  That's unfair hyperbole, but I'm disappointed.

The question of the poll was whether to blow it up.  Blowing it up can go all the way to the top. 

I agree with all of this.  I almost wonder if the early success, especially 2019, was harmful in the long term to the overall plan.  That's not to say that success is bad, but perhaps it altered perceptions and expectations unrealistically.  Particularly in the fanbase.  That's not an excuse or letting them off the hook though.  Adjustments can be made and plans can be altered to fit how things unfold, especially at the big league level.  Expectations and perceptions should change over time.

I think strides have been made in many areas, but I'm not sure that I'm convinced that there's light at the end of the tunnel yet.  I'm patient with these types of things, I realize that they take time, but I was hoping/expecting to see a bit more by now, especially regarding the pitching.  That's ultimately what has always held this team back.

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Retooling is the path, I think. Lots of doomsday talk on here (I get it, this year has been a disaster). The offense is good. Definitely need to raise the level of at bats with runners in scoring position, but overall it's a good, playoff winning caliber offense. And should be next year. I think it all comes down to pitching (weird, I know). What do Duran and Balazovic look like the rest of the year and when they get their shot this year? I have to imagine the plan is to get them both to the majors this year. Berrios and Maeda are a nice start to a rotation. Not crazy good, and I'd like an upgrade in there, but you could do worse. If 1 of Duran or Balazovic look like the real deal and can be a 2 or 3 type pitcher next year with a chance to become a number 1 down the road I think your rotation has a really good base. The pen is going to need some major work, but they've shown the last 2 seasons they can build a very good pen. 

I think this year being such a complete disaster, and the memory of playoff losses from 20 years ago, are blurring some of the details. This team has the bones of a contender and can be pretty reasonably easily built back into a contender next year. Not getting caught up in any mini-runs they make before the deadline is key for the FO. This season is lost. Shipping out some bats for some pitching should be the goal between now and the end of July. Polanco looks to be back (knock on wood for his ankles), Buck will be around next year (pray for 100 games of health), Kirilloff and Larnach look like the future 3 and 5 hitters. Arraez will keep hitting .300. Donaldson will maintain at least a slightly above average bat for another year. Don't know how Garver ever gets behind the plate again, but I assume he will and him and Jeffers both look to have found themselves again. Kepler as part of a platoon in RF is more than serviceable. This offense should be good next year even with a few losses. Is Gordon for real? Can you get an arm for a package built around him and Sano? They have pieces that can be shipped out to help teams this year and still have a solid offense for next year.

My plan for the rest of this year is to cut my offense down to a core 10 or 11 guys. They're about to get a bunch of guys back and they'll have too many hitters to carry on the 26 man. Ship some out for arms before the deadline. Spend August and September testing out the young arms. Can Dobnak figure things out or is he a 2m a year AAAA pitcher? (That'd be pretty disappointing, but it's what I think he is) Duran, Balazovic, Canterino- Who is ready for a spot next year? Are they 4/5 types next year? Or can you reasonably expect one of them to be a legit 3 who flashes 1 and 2 ability throughout the year? Pick a FA target, guess what he'll take to sign, cut that+5m out of your budget and go get him in the offseason. (It's not an overly impressive list of arms so maybe bring in 2 of them) 

Decide who you want your top 10 or 11 bats to be next year. Trade the rest. Determine which, if any, young guns can contribute in the rotation or pen next year by cycling through everyone this year. Sign legit arms (not meaning 35m guys, but 15-20m guys) this offseason. Compete next year.

(Sorry for how long this got)

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20 hours ago, jaimedude said:

They need to start over in the front office, Falvey and Lavine have been here now five years and have little to nothing to show for any pitching to develop. This was supposed to be the area that these two excelled at. Ready for new front office guy's and scout's to take over.

They inherited an utterly depleted farm system, especially from a pitching perspective, and while the guys they have drafted in recent years haven't made an impact at the MLB level yet, it certainly seems like there are a number of high-caliber arms coming soon.

I voted for a re-tooling for 2022. With less than $50M committed to the payroll for next season (which doesn't include deals for Buxton and Berrios if they are not traded), the FO has positioned themselves to have some flexibility once again. No one is more aware than they are that every move they made this past off-season was abysmal.

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23 hours ago, ashbury said:

It seems like the analytics has whiffed on basic things that ordinary fans can catch, such as Simmons's 2020 stats being heavily inflated by a favorable BABIP.  In sum, I was keeping faith that their analytics-fu was strong and mine was weak, but I'm now less than convinced that a bright high-schooler couldn't have done as well if not better than either of us.  That's unfair hyperbole, but I'm disappointed.

I don't mean to single you out but what were you expecting from Simmons? He has a 91 wRC+/93 OPS+ this season and his career numbers are 90 wRC+/91 OPS+. His 2020 numbers weren't even that different at 98 wRC+/91 OPS+. He's only had one slight outlier year that was notably above his norms and that was several years back in 2018 (106 wRC+/109 OPS+).

I mean, those are all really consistent overall and paint a pretty clear picture who he is offensively. Offensively, Simmons is doing almost exactly what I hoped he would do and I was slightly concerned he would be significantly below his current performance level after the ankle issues and the fact he's a mediocre hitter who is getting older.

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't mean to single you out but what were you expecting from Simmons? He has a 91 wRC+/93 OPS+ this season and his career numbers are 90 wRC+/91 OPS+. His 2020 numbers weren't even that different at 98 wRC+/91 OPS+. He's only had one slight outlier year that was notably above his norms and that was several years back in 2018 (106 wRC+/109 OPS+).

I mean, those are all really consistent overall and paint a pretty clear picture who he is offensively. Offensively, Simmons is doing almost exactly what I hoped he would do and I was slightly concerned he would be significantly below his current performance level after the ankle issues and the fact he's a mediocre hitter who is getting older.

I guess I hadn't looked at his actual numbers for a week or so... I thought his OPS was down in the low .600s, which (in looking at his gamelogs) was .636 in late May but has bounced back a bit as you say. 

Then again, he started out unnaturally hot, and after his first 8 games his OPS is only .580, which includes his recent warm stretch, and I know that seems like cherry picking to take away the good part at the beginning but it leaves a couple of months of results and they are the most recent so I think they are more indicative than the first week of April 

Bottom, line, I didn't make the strongest argument in history when I mentioned Simmons, so you are right to push back on it.  But I don't believe Simmons's offense has been sufficient to justify a starting job, no matter how strong the glove, and it's that first week or so that makes it seem sufficient.

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